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10
Jul
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4:00pm
TONS of uncertainty at the close and even though ended under 88.00 on the SPY  and the PUTS on the SPY rallied really nicely at the end of the day due to high demand, the fact hat we ended right next to 88 and above 87.80 makes me somewhat less bearish, there’s also an inverse H&S on the 5 minute. That’s why i added only a few SPY puts at the end of the day for what could be another push lower on much stronger volume monday.. but if we do pop i’ll look to cover them very fast.. I will have a video out tomorrow about what to expect from next week. Also i wanted to note that the financials ended on pretty bad noteÂ
3.49pm
I got out of most of my puts.. holding on to GS… because if we end above 88.00 we might get a huge buying spree on monday.. Â If we close below.. i will add them back..Â
3:30pm
XLF could be making a new low very soon.. the SPY is fighting over the 87.80 level.. and the volume is really creeping up here… it’s incredible.. I really don’t know who’s going to win.. Â
2:26pm
Market in a free fall yet again… but keep your stops still tight! if you get stopped out and want to reenter at a different opportunity that’s fine.. but you might get a rally against you at the end of the day that will erase all your gains and shove you to losses. Â
2:24pm
IF 87.80 breaks on the SPY.. it is absolutely over the bulls with a H&S that would take us to the lows…Â
2:17pm
Commodities are still strong… even though there’s a potential H&S.. we can also breakout to the upside.. take a look at USO on teh 1 minute.. Â
2:13pm
GS bouncing up quite significantly after hitting 142… for a fakeout..  but it was also extremely oversold and might need a breather.. other financials are still down..Â
2:07pm
New hourly lows for GS.. Â 142.20 is very important level.. a clear break of this should crash GS. Â SPY dragged down by financials..Â
2:02pm
GS testing the 142.20 low.. as it is oversold on the 1 minute time scheme it really needs to break down for the market to push lower… Â
2:00pm
Some selling coming in on 2pm reversal time.. we have the USO finally pile down for 2 candles in a row.. but guys, we have seen this market be so crazy between 2-3, we can shoot down 1% and end 2% up haha.. so I added some more puts here.. but i’m still 50% cash. Â
Â
1:47pm
GS is not rallying with this market.. the SPY is at 88.10 but GS hasn’t made a new high.. this doesn’t look like it could last until big financials can rally. Â
1:44pm
SPY breaking above the 88.00 level… this turns the market to more bullishness as the volume is definetly there… remember that the market needs to close above 88..  GS not really rallying as much.. USO didn’t make a new high like the SPY… and the financials didn’t either.. ti’s really tech that’s driving this rally..Â
:28pm
GS broke the pennat formation for hte first time.. thenext level to watch is 141.60 which is a double bottom potential… Â
1:22pm
Volume is picking up to the downside for the first time since 11:30 this morning… as we formed a double top formation… If we close below 88 on the SPY.. the bulls know that it’s over for them.. the bulls will do their best to close above hoping they can get a break for earnings next week.. but the bears already got the consolidation they need to push us lower.. so it’s an amazing fight here.. I rather be on the bearish side but i have stops all over the place… on every stock. Â
1:18pm
GS is breaking out… or at least trying too… the SPY hitting up against the 88 level which is very important (double top possible..) and the financials and oil USO both have inverse H&S on the day’s action.. Â
12:57pm
There’s a pennant formation on GS 1 minute… if it breaks we can see a major sell off in GS of more than 1.5%… It is right now trying to fight it.. but we’lll see if it’s able to break down or break out.
Â
12:48pm
The market is hitting the crucial 88-88.15 level on the SPY.. and this is strong resistance.. remember you want to see a close BELOW this level to be bearish.. a close above would get me bullish yet again.. Â
12:26pm
SPY JULY and AUGUST puts were added at 87.70-87.80.Â
12:00pm
I’m waiting for a small consolidation pattern which is forming to go short on.. you can see potentially a channel (upward) forming.. that might act as consolidation before another shoot lower…  SPY 5 min:
Â
11:22pm
With the sellers now BACK in control on strong volume.. we are going to assume that we have completely broken down… so now the key is to add shorts on any consolidation push up.. Â
11:15pm
It is not yet safe to assume that we’re moving lower, despite hitting a double bottom at 87/70.. there’s still a chance that we rip higher… some of the charts still look strong while others look tired… Â
11:13pm
I bought some August PUTS on GS at the money as it rallied higher today… GS TH. Â
10:19am
AAPL is potentially forming a H&S on the 1 minute..  but this market is trading above 880 yet again… this H&S can fall apart because we had a bigger inverse H&S that broke out earlier today..Â
10:01am
We’re getting a 10 am reversal.. and this time it looks likeit’sf or real… AAPL is breaking down very fast as well… and SPY is having a hard time as the volume to the downside is strong.. we might be starting our descent… But we are in no way certain yet… be careful… I rather not play this first move down.. Â
10:00am
Goldman is weaker today… as it seemed to have topped off yesterday.. on the other hand AAPL is rocking it, with a target of an inverse H&S about 142.. it’s got some ways to go Â
9:43am
AAPL broke it’s inverse H&S, and the market is trading slightly above the 880 level once again, I warned peopel short that this could very well happen.. and we look pretty strong off the open for now..
Â
9:24am
Be careful when you assume that we broke the 880 on the SPX.. because the ES is trading still between the 870-875 range.. and there’s a nice INVERSE H&S on it, for the last hour or so of action.. we might open and shoot higher… don’t be at a rush to short this market. Â
1:25am:
Hey guys the futures are slightly down yet they are still holding the 875 level.. or 880 on the SPX… and so I am still unsure of where we move tomorrow. I would not be as sure as Alex that we move lower tomorrow.. there’s a chance that we move to the 900 before we see a new move lower.. I am okay with buying August PUTS on the SPY (at the money) at around the 900 level and keep adding if we run towards 908. Today my descending resistance was hit mid day, and that was the high. This descending resistance.. if you look 3 days back.. was resistance from a triangle formation… the ascending support of the triangle being the H&S neckline. We have not yet  re-tested the support of the H&S neckline as resistance..and therefore i’m still not positive we will fall. That said, GS has seemed to top today.. as it rallied to my target of 144.60 and fell from around that are..  If we do start falling under 880 tomorrow.. you should be short with tight stops..
We seem to have broken from another sloppy H&S on the 10 min SPY on strong volume … target is 86.93
July 10th, 2009 at 11:18 am
im calling out for the 860s by Monday. see my chart in POST 6.
im not in any 3X ETF because i want to relax and look at what ASH does today. rallies 4% and gives it all back. all in 90 minutes. crazy
July 10th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Richard – we may just hit this low …. it would qualify as a double bottom and allow the rally from there up ….
July 10th, 2009 at 11:24 am
this would tag the lower trendline of my channel. i believe we need to fake below it and hang out for an hour or two to sell off worhtless puts.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Retesting the neckline and flare through it …..
I am ready to go long once again when we start trading in the 8025-8075 band. TNA will be the vehicle I will use for this. I will close my position on oil today as we are very close to the target of 55 I have set for myself on this trade. VERY NICE TRADE WITH 33% RETURN IN TWO WEEKS. I will reevaluate if commodities will keep downwards next week.
Not liking the APPL here. Took 35% $$$$$ from yest on the 135 c’s. Few remain as a hedge. 30/70 now.
SRS–going to take some profits and build position in URE.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:26 am
think we hit the 860s. looking for a reversal premarket Tuesday.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:31 am
okay–sold one lot on SRS and will wait on URE
———— FUN ————– have not checked in on this one alot. up 20% in my puts
PUT -100 FUN SEP 10s the chart is looking sicker than ever.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fun
CLOSED 1/2 QID JUL 35 C 1.00 (in .75)
DIA selling volume weak! Looks attractive to buy w/ stop below at these levels Good Luck
What the hell is happening to the fertilisers ?
July 10th, 2009 at 11:27 am
oil…
July 10th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Nope – this is not oil … something else going on here …
July 10th, 2009 at 11:39 am
I asked the same question awhile ago. The tanking began when Timmy was on stage. POT diesn’t report until later this month and there is no ag news that looks shakey that I can find.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:40 am
G8 farming regulations for developing world rumors?
July 10th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Could have something to do w/ it. It is more than oil. The names were jumping so fast earlier that it almost looked lke a short squeeze. They then proceeded to tank when Timmy got into the middle of his speech. POT looks oversold here.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:39 am
yeah … wow! POT -7.5%
137 will trigger buyback of 140 AAPL C’s
CLOSED all but a few QID c’s 1.10 (in .75)
I’m with Eckart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show&disp=o
July 10th, 2009 at 11:41 am
me too…. lines up with my channel. depends on time frames. slow bleed feels right… keep the dip buyers in and transfer the wealth
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/a_spx_july92009-1?context=latest
this look right to you?
July 10th, 2009 at 11:50 am
sure, I’m not aware of how to use 20, 40 ma’s…looks good.
Bought back the AAPL 140c’s here. 1.40. 200ema tag. See if it holds.
———— MARKET DOWN 1% ———– im up 0.16%
i should start my own stock picking service. my positions
need to giddy up or im going to spaz out.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Rotato Potato?
July 10th, 2009 at 11:46 am
ha ha …………. ive got the wrong potato … seems
like the fertilisers were the mashed potato…. didnt get the memo.
So what are peoples crystal balls saying now???
I think a lot of people were waiting for that second right shoulder so per usual the markets didn’t give it to them.
I’m holding FAZ that I bought yesterday at 53.17. I have a 2% trailing stop in place… I’ll let it go as long as it wants.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:45 am
It is still coming, it will be a shallow one to 900-910 by opex.
Here, look at this chart. We are at the bottom of the hourly chart. I count a 1,2 (3 maybe today), to be followed by a 4 wave retrace and final 5th move down. Just at a glance Richards 860 by Tues is certainly possible on this chart, which would complete this move down on the hourly chart, put in a double bottom and rally us up to the top of the channel, which would be around opex and put in a shall right shoulder. Just speculation but I still fully expect a shallow right shoulder with opex at around 910 or so.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows168238681&disp=P
July 10th, 2009 at 11:47 am
That’s my bet. All this crapola about the shoulder is in is bogus. Time is still on the bulls side IMVHO
July 10th, 2009 at 11:57 am
after the 17th we will know if the bulls are in short term or in it for the long run. strongly believe MONDAY is “look out below” it fits perfectly with the GS SCANDAL leaked after GS shorted the market. now they will cover on MONDAY and go long and release better than expected earnings. the SEC will turn a blind eye, yell ‘nothing to see here’ and the market chugs along.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
so……………………………does that leave us in some consolidation today?
July 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
So far, that shoulder looks pretty convincing to me:
http://i26.tinypic.com/s1rs5x.png
The bulls also need to find a way to get the indices back above the 200dMA, and they also have to get the 20dMA above the 50dMA and prevent the 20dMA and the 50dMA from making death crosses down thru the 200dMA.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
agreed looks like were working on a 4 not sure what degree could be a 1,2 1,2 3 if it’s right it shouldn’t go higher than 876.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:52 am
I loaded up on ERY yesterday in mid 26s – now above 28. I tried to jigger the trailing stop to run along just below the 20dMA, which generally tends to support rises, but will watch while it runs.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
I bought ERY at 28.00 the other day and again at 26.00 yesterday (400 shares each time).
July 10th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BGZ,DPK,EDZ,ERY,FAZ,MWN,SRS,TYP,TZA
These small free charts of the hotter levered bear ETFs show that the 20dMA changed from resistance to support in mid-June. with the 50dMA having also recently started supporting all except TYH (-3x tech stocks). In addition, several have made a bull cross of the 20dMA up thru the 50dMA or likely to soon do so.
————— ODFL ————- i short it, the market falls apart, it sits still.
i was on fire for a week. what is happening today
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A32504
Last posted photo is an alternative…we’re in a little ABC intraday and complete one more juicy wave down into the close.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:58 am
you like a down MONDAY? or you like completion of ABC today. maybe the ABC morphs into 12345 waves down including Monday. see how oversold we are close to end of day. see where the daily RSI stands near the closing bell.
AIG shorts getting some squeeze on them. Upset I missed this first large move down (I checked when it split, options weren’t updated yet and forgot to check back in). Will buy some otm puts when this squeeze runs out of steam.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
That was on my watchlist, for a quick pop..
Looks like I’ll have to wait anothertime.
Brian Shannon’s live mid day analysis. At 12:15 p.m.
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/679586899
Can’t sit here all day. Ordered up some position brackets and see what develops.
40/60 at the moment. AAPL C; QID C, MS P Check in later.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Yeah, that’s what I said ealrier today so I got into POT- which then tanked further than any S level suggested. May not be a bad idea to sit around for awhile longer.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
This is from K over at evil speculator site on Pot. Was tempted to play catch the falling knife but then I saw it looks to have fallen under this long term support line.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Keirsten/folders/Jing/media/bd30562d-b5c0-432f-ab09-dd01017d1279
Idan, on that chart that you just posted, I’m seeing a cup and handle. Does anyone else see that?
All kinds of + divgences… I’m going to buy
If we break over 88 today, we’re gonna get a run at 900 monday.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Buying interest picking up, and this does not look like a bear flag; looks like its gonna break north.
Wow, 2m shares on the 1min and it didn’t move up or down.
Anybody see the flare on TD’s chart?
July 10th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
yeah i had that.. that’s a data error
——- LIGHTENED UP A BIT ——— NTES $34.15 cover and $24.57 on ASH
increased ODFL to 400 shares short. it is much more tame. that is what i
was looking for with ASH and ended up with a wild animal.
GONE FOR A WHILE………… good luck trading! i’m down just under 1% today.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
before i leave. the VIX is only up 0.4% with the market down 0.7% bizarro.
we could be in a C up to 890 or it could be a bear flag?
Does anyone have an accurate reading for max pain SPY?
July 10th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php it says 91 but not sure how reliable
July 10th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
I’m not so sure that’s accurate…
got the cup on 1 min s n p
The most likely scenario would seem to be a run up to 904-912 area sometime next week which would would put the questions back into the market of ‘Do we continue the insanity and climb even higher to 950-970, or do we collapse to reality and drop to 800 pretty quickly…
This is based more on a feel for ‘THE NEW MARKETS’ which are being manipulated in ways that are becoming more and more revealing by the day….
July 10th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
yeah thats what i can see going on
July 10th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
yeah, the NEW MARKETS, i like it
July 10th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Don’t know if you guys talked about it earlier this week when I was out, but I happen to catch a quote from one of the GS guys when their code was stolen. It was something long the lines of they were concerned because whomever had this code could use it to manipulate the markets……..
I got a big chuckle out of the fact that GS was concerned others (but not them!) could manipulate the markets
July 10th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Yeah I read that too. Market manipulation? Heavens no, not GS!
July 10th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
It was a lawyer.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I see us hitting the 38.2% retrace at 846 within the next week or so before we get the late summer bounce back to the 920-930 level. Looks like we could have a nasty drop come the fall. Just throwing out another scenario here.
What do you want to bet this statement is going to come back to haunt Obama ?:
World has avoided economic disaster, Obama says
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090710/ap_on_re_eu/obama
July 10th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
we’ll have a lot of one term Presidents for the next 20 years.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Not a bad thing.
s n p cup and handle , moving up 1 min at 200ma
July 10th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
smash the 200 ma
While I was out
BOUGHT USO JUL 33 C .50
Ditched the remanining QID and MS positions
July 10th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Gap fill play. Green rally cap on.
hourly charts starting to turn north again; use tight stops on all shorts. We are over 88 again as i type this and if we break highs of the day, this thing will head to 89 in a hurry
—– im back — 887 TO 883 on the 5min SPX = 14 POINTS
14 POINT LEG
50% RETRACE = 7 = 880
guess we back test 880
see what happens.
if the last leg = the first leg i’d expect a failure to close above 880 today
should lead to the final leg down to 864
——— 864 ———– TARGET FOR MONDAY.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
880 still has no clean capture on the 10 min chart. not happy with the two red candles through 878. no 100% trust at this time in candle pattern.
We’re gonna break one way or the other before EOD, the BB on the 60m ins really tight and sloping down. i think a break above the middle says we go up, and failure at the middle says we go down.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
middle is at 880 BTW
July 10th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Perfect
July 10th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Good bb point
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeFVNYQpByU4#
Here comes our one-world currency.
We’re all paupers now.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Here is a picture of a new coin.
http://pics.livejournal.com/a_kolesnichenko/pic/00021ace/
USO catching a bid. Big oil to follow?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
USO backtest 20ema then liftage?
I see SPY ending the day at it’s low of the day. I’m planning to go long then.
———— ASH ————- this time at 880 it failed to get $25 . added short.
this is a tough cookie but i think it cracks.
USO “trying” to clear the wedge. Might get another .30 out of this today. I will likely exit ALL positions by EOD. MAY grab some QID puts at the finish line. TBD
AAPL: another run here at 139. Make or break
50 ema just crossed the 200 ema on the SPY 1 min chart
Found it Tanya on the Indie Research page:
Potash of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT – News) recently announced an agreement to supply Asian customers with potash shipments through the end of the year. According to the company, prices were in the $700 per ton range, in line with a supply contract its export consortium Canpotex inked last month. Today, however, reports emerged that a Russian company Silvinit agreed to supply Indian customers with potash at a price of $460 per tonne, a more than -34% discount to Potash of Saskatchewan’s deal announced yesterday. RBC Capital expected the deal to be priced at $500 per tonne, and noted that current spot prices for the commodity are $750 per tonne. With the Russian deal fueling concerns that potash priceing won’t hold up, fertilizer stocks are down sharply today, some by more than -5%.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Good find !!
July 10th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Remember when you and Zee told me to sell commodities (oil at 72.5). Sold accordingly and feel this is a major correction, based on charts and MOS with put/ call ratio. Will look to get back in at a later date as deflation is taking its course. Obviously, this is a macro position, but has worked well.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
deflation is in charge for now. RUS.TO had all employees agree to wage cuts
Double top on AAPL. Raised stops. Dunno. Could go either way.Bought a few 140 P
July 10th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
I see us breakinng above the neckline finally of the inverse H&S … however 139.13 is strogn resistance on 60 min … otherwise we are home free till 143. …
————– LET’S JUST TAG THE DANG 880 ————– sheesh. this thing
is tryng to wear me out
July 10th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Its fighting with the 200 ma at 879.xx
July 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
yesterday i left when we got to the key level of 887 as i cant stand this bull tard stuff. anywhoodle. on the 10 min we tagged 887 twice so maybe we need to wick 880 again here before starting a journey toward 864. that is of course, if im correct in my assesment of hte market.
anybody playing tech besides aapl and QID, rimm?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
MSFT could be an interesting play, huge open interest 25 calls
July 10th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/option+activity+alert+climbing+call+volume+on+microsoft+corporation/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=94010
July 10th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Nice read, addresses both the bullish and bearish implications of a lot of option activity going on with july msft
July 10th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
thnx
Bull flaggin ES. 2:00 reversal north?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Guess not
July 10th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
the past couple of days, 230ish proved to be reversal time
I wonder if my online broker says “what the hell is this idiot doing” when they see my 2% trailing stop put in, then cancelled, then put back in, then cancelled and then put back in again.
When a drop doesn’t feel “real” to me, I cancel and set it again at the lower level. I think I’ll leave it alone for the rest of the day now.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
I like to pretend I am one of those big guys who puts up a big bid/ask block and then pulls it a min later right before it hits to fake people out.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I know what you mean. My Scottrade branch is small and there’s been a few times one of the online brokers has said something while we’re phone BS-ing that shows these guys can plug into any account and watch the trading. My ears are buzzing today on this snafu POT trade I got into.
———– 875 ———- this is my call for the close + or – 5%
tomorrow we see 864 or i eat humble pie.
ASH – NTES – MICC – ODFL —- are my plays to beat the market lower. so far, so bad
July 10th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
I’ll take that bet (Saturday)
July 10th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
There you go trading on Saturdays again. Sure wish you’d share those opportunities with us.
I like your + or – 5%… sounds like the talking heads on TV.
next
July 10th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
bump
July 10th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
kick