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10
Jul
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4:00pm
TONS of uncertainty at the close and even though ended under 88.00 on the SPY and the PUTS on the SPY rallied really nicely at the end of the day due to high demand, the fact hat we ended right next to 88 and above 87.80 makes me somewhat less bearish, there’s also an inverse H&S on the 5 minute. That’s why i added only a few SPY puts at the end of the day for what could be another push lower on much stronger volume monday.. but if we do pop i’ll look to cover them very fast.. I will have a video out tomorrow about what to expect from next week. Also i wanted to note that the financials ended on pretty bad note
3.49pm
I got out of most of my puts.. holding on to GS… because if we end above 88.00 we might get a huge buying spree on monday.. If we close below.. i will add them back..
3:30pm
XLF could be making a new low very soon.. the SPY is fighting over the 87.80 level.. and the volume is really creeping up here… it’s incredible.. I really don’t know who’s going to win..
2:26pm
Market in a free fall yet again… but keep your stops still tight! if you get stopped out and want to reenter at a different opportunity that’s fine.. but you might get a rally against you at the end of the day that will erase all your gains and shove you to losses.
2:24pm
IF 87.80 breaks on the SPY.. it is absolutely over the bulls with a H&S that would take us to the lows…
2:17pm
Commodities are still strong… even though there’s a potential H&S.. we can also breakout to the upside.. take a look at USO on teh 1 minute..
2:13pm
GS bouncing up quite significantly after hitting 142… for a fakeout.. but it was also extremely oversold and might need a breather.. other financials are still down..
2:07pm
New hourly lows for GS.. 142.20 is very important level.. a clear break of this should crash GS. SPY dragged down by financials..
2:02pm
GS testing the 142.20 low.. as it is oversold on the 1 minute time scheme it really needs to break down for the market to push lower…
2:00pm
Some selling coming in on 2pm reversal time.. we have the USO finally pile down for 2 candles in a row.. but guys, we have seen this market be so crazy between 2-3, we can shoot down 1% and end 2% up haha.. so I added some more puts here.. but i’m still 50% cash.
1:47pm
GS is not rallying with this market.. the SPY is at 88.10 but GS hasn’t made a new high.. this doesn’t look like it could last until big financials can rally.
1:44pm
SPY breaking above the 88.00 level… this turns the market to more bullishness as the volume is definetly there… remember that the market needs to close above 88.. GS not really rallying as much.. USO didn’t make a new high like the SPY… and the financials didn’t either.. ti’s really tech that’s driving this rally..
:28pm
GS broke the pennat formation for hte first time.. thenext level to watch is 141.60 which is a double bottom potential…
1:22pm
Volume is picking up to the downside for the first time since 11:30 this morning… as we formed a double top formation… If we close below 88 on the SPY.. the bulls know that it’s over for them.. the bulls will do their best to close above hoping they can get a break for earnings next week.. but the bears already got the consolidation they need to push us lower.. so it’s an amazing fight here.. I rather be on the bearish side but i have stops all over the place… on every stock.
1:18pm
GS is breaking out… or at least trying too… the SPY hitting up against the 88 level which is very important (double top possible..) and the financials and oil USO both have inverse H&S on the day’s action..
12:57pm
There’s a pennant formation on GS 1 minute… if it breaks we can see a major sell off in GS of more than 1.5%… It is right now trying to fight it.. but we’lll see if it’s able to break down or break out.
12:48pm
The market is hitting the crucial 88-88.15 level on the SPY.. and this is strong resistance.. remember you want to see a close BELOW this level to be bearish.. a close above would get me bullish yet again..
12:26pm
SPY JULY and AUGUST puts were added at 87.70-87.80.
12:00pm
I’m waiting for a small consolidation pattern which is forming to go short on.. you can see potentially a channel (upward) forming.. that might act as consolidation before another shoot lower… SPY 5 min:
11:22pm
With the sellers now BACK in control on strong volume.. we are going to assume that we have completely broken down… so now the key is to add shorts on any consolidation push up..
11:15pm
It is not yet safe to assume that we’re moving lower, despite hitting a double bottom at 87/70.. there’s still a chance that we rip higher… some of the charts still look strong while others look tired…
11:13pm
I bought some August PUTS on GS at the money as it rallied higher today… GS TH.
10:19am
AAPL is potentially forming a H&S on the 1 minute.. but this market is trading above 880 yet again… this H&S can fall apart because we had a bigger inverse H&S that broke out earlier today..
10:01am
We’re getting a 10 am reversal.. and this time it looks likeit’sf or real… AAPL is breaking down very fast as well… and SPY is having a hard time as the volume to the downside is strong.. we might be starting our descent… But we are in no way certain yet… be careful… I rather not play this first move down..
10:00am
Goldman is weaker today… as it seemed to have topped off yesterday.. on the other hand AAPL is rocking it, with a target of an inverse H&S about 142.. it’s got some ways to go
9:43am
AAPL broke it’s inverse H&S, and the market is trading slightly above the 880 level once again, I warned peopel short that this could very well happen.. and we look pretty strong off the open for now..
9:24am
Be careful when you assume that we broke the 880 on the SPX.. because the ES is trading still between the 870-875 range.. and there’s a nice INVERSE H&S on it, for the last hour or so of action.. we might open and shoot higher… don’t be at a rush to short this market.
1:25am:
Hey guys the futures are slightly down yet they are still holding the 875 level.. or 880 on the SPX… and so I am still unsure of where we move tomorrow. I would not be as sure as Alex that we move lower tomorrow.. there’s a chance that we move to the 900 before we see a new move lower.. I am okay with buying August PUTS on the SPY (at the money) at around the 900 level and keep adding if we run towards 908. Today my descending resistance was hit mid day, and that was the high. This descending resistance.. if you look 3 days back.. was resistance from a triangle formation… the ascending support of the triangle being the H&S neckline. We have not yet re-tested the support of the H&S neckline as resistance..and therefore i’m still not positive we will fall. That said, GS has seemed to top today.. as it rallied to my target of 144.60 and fell from around that are.. If we do start falling under 880 tomorrow.. you should be short with tight stops..
Nobody wants Page 3, I guess
spy back testing h&s on 5 min
Anybody else notice the huge Intraday INVERSERE H&S that might be forming on S&P using parallel descending channel lines for the neck and shoulders?
Left shoulder at 10:00am at 877.50
Head at 11:30am at 872.8
Right shoulder looking to form at 875 around 3:00pm
could be yet again an end of the day fakeout when everyone thinks the market is toast…
thoughts???
July 10th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
that’ what it looks like to me , no shorts for me today
pot.to looks very bearish.. very big h&s.. i would not touch it.
Limit out of the AAPL 140’s again. +10% Still +30 on the remaining 135’s from yest
July 10th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Still like the USO but the 200 looms above.
Vix still isn’t buying what the bears are selling
July 10th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
If it goes down any more will likely lose 50 rsi on the daily, already tested the 50 ma and failed it.
Interesting observation on gold and silver stocks. Both gold and silver prices are down. The dollar is also weak against major currencies. Yet, gold and silver stocks seems to be flat or slightly up.
I think this is signalling we are at close to a short term bottom.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
yeah i went long gold yesterday but got stopped out
July 10th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
afternoon…long SLV @ $12.45…looking to be near bottom perhaps…GLT
872 looks key for another h&s on /es
———– THIS CHART HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT ———- today’s action helps the bulls ala NADA . im not uploading a new chart but i’ll tell you … it actually looks a bit more bearish which fits in nicely with my MONDAY TANKOLA lower BB steepening at 870
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/a_spx_july92009-1?context=user
not updated but i’ll do it after hours. no looky so goody for bounce
July 10th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
If we can have a moderate plunge in the final hour maybe it’ll set up a Monday/Tuesday tank that people like Art Cashin have been waiting for.
SRS–23 seems to be support. Will build positions in URE if it breaks. Looking for consolidation, however.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
descending triangle..danger.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
or a bull flag..for the optimist.
TBT moving lower…appears 60 day support is being tested…next major support around $46.50 then lower monthly base around $43.25….deflation winning today it seems…
July 10th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
a close near $48.50 today might delay breakdown vs. fakedown…
Bears have their chance but they never able to do it…. so now its Bull’s time
VIX is hitting it’s lows of the day? Ugh… rally time?
July 10th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
got a hammer on the 5min vix.
3rd run at 139 by AAPL. Betting on a fake out, at least, above
July 10th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Will close all but some fun money before EOD
July 10th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Still in USO?
is that a bull flag spx 1 min ?
————– SO MANY TIMES WE SEE THIS ———– if the market moves higher off a significant level at a slowing pace inside the final hour. or the opposite. the final
10 minutes is usually a significant move. my money is on some people shedding
positions in a big way for the final 10 mins of the day.
————– VOLUME —- yep it is clearly a Summer Friday ———–
is that invr h & s 1 min spx
July 10th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
2nd thoughts it’s just a mess
All kinds of + divergence … Bullish time….
July 10th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
vix is preparing us for a run up eod.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Yep, if it breaks down past 29, Its going down to 27.5 I believe.
Calling for PPT to put a little icing on the GM cake today….grin
Financials much weaker than broader markets today.
bye bye SRS, I’ll be buying you at 21.42
July 10th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Fakeout?
July 10th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
I don’t think so, that was a serious volume plunge.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
hey, it recovered…can’t see straight.
—————- WHAT A PAIN IN THE ASH ————— why didnt i short Dow Chemical?
——– 14 point move to 873 ——— 50% retrace is 880 62.8% is 882
im just staying with what ive got. this move feels early. we going to make
a double top and then reverse hard into the close?
Jack says:
July 10, 2009 at 10:13 am
It seems today is gonna be manipulated to close even or we just slide down?
Reply
Gold is amout to commit suicide by closing the week under 914. If you are in it….plan on holding for a WHILE.
Stopped out of my trading shares of FAZ. Made 4.9% from yesterdays purchase.
Enjoy the weekend folks.
massive blocks of spy buys im seeing
crap…crap…crap
I made a small fortune today on my SSO, USO, and OIH positions….Just sold my 1/2 of my SSO.
Good Luck everyone and see ya monday when we break 900… Later
July 10th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Idan…i bought a boatload of XLF this morning virtually breaking even on the position…will unload next week when we are trading over 12
July 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Glad I didn’t listen to your first post–would have lost about $13,700. Still believe in your theory though. I guess timing is everything.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
FAZ, SRS
July 10th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
congrats
July 10th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
I would not be as bullish as you but everyone picks his side.. i’m more netural
July 10th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
If post was aimed toward me,don’t disagree. Sold two lots (SRS) at 23.75, bought one lot (URE) at 2.99, sold one lot (FAZ) at 56.8, bought one lot of FAS at $37.20. Creating hedge at this point–don’t know what will happen. 5% stops in!!!
July 10th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Good Trading Steve. i’ll be bullish like you at the close MONDAY if things go like ive been posting. MICC ASH NTES ODFL ……… main shorts …. down 0.47%
im keeping PCLN puts to short sell unless it hits $102.50 Monday.
have a great weekend all !
———- ASH ———– add another 200 short $25.25 ……. maybe im wrong. but i made a good trade covering most in the mid $24 range. my account is hardly worse off today. im pumped for a monday sel. especially if we sell off here in the last 5 minutes.
Vix is toast baring a fast 5 min recovery here. Fakeout over the 50 ma, fell back under, backtested and busted down. Daily RSI 50 lost. It lost both the 20 ma/ema and backtest successful so far. Uptrend is busted. Tell me you wouldn’t look at that vix chart and sell it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=vix
July 10th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Btw, I am sure Cobra will put his chart up later like he always does but usually when Vix is red and market is red the next day ends green
in cash over the weekend…scalps of /es and srs will provide dinner for the kids…thanks everyone.
Have a great weekend everyone
anybody notice that someone just bought 1.5 million at 88.35 in afterhours? or is that a data error?
July 10th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
why is SPY 87.79x 87.81 AH
July 10th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Vix Down, SPX Down.. Next day green?
Cobra’s chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=shows153319737&disp=P
July 10th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Zee, look at #43, pg. 2. Again, thanks!
July 10th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Hahah sickkkk!! No problem !
July 12th, 2009 at 1:57 am
I found “16:27 $ 88.3532 1,000,500″ at http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?&symbol=SPY&symbol=SPX&pageno=16&selected=SPY&mkttype=AFTER so it doesn’t appear to be a data error. Might this mean someone is prepping for a short squeeze next week?
60/40 cash to equities. Swinging FAZ/FAS, SRS/URE. Any other thoughts are welcomed.
I’ll give you all some advice on how to make money in the market.
Buy support and sell resistance. This is where there is demand and supply.
Short “perfect bull patterns” when the market is near resistance.
Go long on “perfect bear patterns” when the market is in an uptrend and also at support.
The market is at support, there is nothing but cash on the sidelines, and we are in an uptrend. There is perfect H&S which is being talked about on CNBC. This is a bear trap. Odds are the market turns higher. Notice I said odds. Everything is about chance and not about finding some method of trying to predict the market (elliot wave TA ect).
Those methods are usefull only in predicting what the avg shmuck may or may not do next.
The only way you get a statistical edge in the market is by doing the opposite of the avg shmuck. To do this obviously you must have first been an avg shmuck, so you must have chased moves on hope and finally bought right at resistance then hoped all the way down finally selling at support. You must remember all of those mistakes and think of people making them while you are watching the market and execute quickly the opposite trade.
Try this: when everyone on this board seems like they are bearish go long. when they are hurting and yet still hopefull that the next pullback is going to be the start of the next leg down hold tight. When they finally cover and go long — SELL!
You are trading against average market participants on balance. You gain edge by not making the same mistakes they do. You should well know what those mistakes are becuase we all have made them. Count on nothing except that people will continue to make those same mistakes and lose money.
July 10th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
pimpington
July 11th, 2009 at 11:53 am
The average smuck does not understand how severe a head and shoulders really can be. Have you seen natural gas? Down 23%+ just because of a h&s pattern. That’s not fun, and many people did not believe me when I was yelling it all across yahoo boards. Once a head and shoulders forms, and breaks, there is a 93% chance of it finishing to it’s target. Let me repeat, the average smuck has no clue what the hell a h&s pattern is, and he might be buying at 850 and 820, and he can get his a** wooped. If this is p3, or wave 5, or whatever down wave… things will get ugly.. remember.. follow the trend.. the trend is no longer up.
This is no longer a bull market, unless we somehow break the long-term resistance from the bear market highs of 08.
Whew..No surprise. Took mega profits on calls at EOD.Only held a couple for fun and AAPL puts Have a great weekend.