Intraday Commentary ~ 07/09/2009

1:55pm
No conviction buying or selling just yet.. we do have a H&S developing on the 5 minute.. but we also have a bigger inverse H&S that broke out and is sort of retesting it’s neckline.. which way do we go? I really don’t know.. but I have a hard time seeing this day end negative… 

1:12pm
I believe we just broke out to the upside on the inverse H&S.., if we can confirm this … this makes the intraday inverse H&S up around 89.50 ish.. and also for the larger one.. around 905-908 on the SPX. 
 

1:08pm
Tons of fakeouts here.. I’ve been faked out at least twice.. and had to renter my position.. there’s no doubt about it the inverse H&S is too obivuos.. so people are being faked out here.. but i do think it’ll break to the upside at some point.. but keep your stops close! If you get faked out and want to reenter position go ahead..  
 

1:00pm
Top of the hour the market is still trying to break above the 90.63 line which will form a huge inveres H&S.. once that happens we’re off to the races.. we are in bull flag formation on alot of stocks.. but that could change depending where volume hits.. financials could get tired here..   

12:44pm
UNG finally rallying up.. we had an inverse H&S on the 10 minute (2 day span) and it’s now way above the breaking put.. and can move towards the 13s hopefully..  

12:30pm
GS hit against my descending resistance.. now at 144.35… and it might get a little tired here, after rallying 6 % from yesterday’s lows..  
 

12:23pm
Volume is slightly picking up to the bulls here as we are forming the inverse H&S on both the 5 minute and the 10 minute scales… (i.e. intraday and over the last 3 days).  

12:06pm
I bought some SPY calls a few minutes ago on a pull back to the 88.35 level… hoping for a inverse H&S to complete…  

11:58am
FSLR and a lot of solar names are forming inverse H&S.. guys this could be very interesting here, take a look at the 10 min:
 

11:54am
My target for GS is the 144.60 descending resistance coming up from the two prior highs.. i thik shorting there is the right move.. let your stop be less tight on that swing trade.. and you might get a nice sell off… the SPY today is drifting higher on lower volume.. i am constantly trying to evaluate whether it can make it to 90$.. and i think it can… it’s forming an inverse H&S.. and soon it’ll pop on stronger volume.  

11:42am
SPY is nothing short of bullish.. i feel as though the market has decided the way is up.. and that we were just consolidating in what appaears to be a falling wedge formation.. now that we broke out the upside is open for a push to the 900 level

 

11:32am
GS does have a H&S pattern forming on it… but the bulls keep saving it whenver it gets in danger…
AKS has rallied very nicely off from the start and might be consolidating for another move higher in a descending wedge formation.. though if volume peaks up.. have your stops.  

11:30am
AAPL looks bullish to me for now.. it looks like it’s forming an inverse H&S on the 1 minute (over the last 40 minutes of action)… the SPY is still not decided to where it wants to go.. but it seems like bulls are constantly holding it up before it breaks any technical levels..  

10:57am
AAPL could be breaking out of a descending triangle formation.. take a look at the 1 minute daily actin..  

10:41am
GS 1 minute is forming the old bearish wedge formation.. and might be worth shorting very soon after a break and a bear flag formation OR going long on the support levels until it breaks if you are bullish biased.. 
 

10:31am
Market is flip flopping around the 880 level and has not decided yet where it wants to go.. i have no conviction in my traes.. i’m just trading any strong support and resistance lines for a small little scalp.  GS for example is conoslidating somewhat from a massive rally.. and has hit some support at 142.60.. starting to lok like a buy to me.. 

10:25am
New daily lows on USO.. this market has sorta reversed itself here.. there’s more bearishness coming in.. MS can’t break above it’s resistance line..  

10:16am
GS new highs… (it has room to go up until 144.60.. (descending resistance from highs.. SPY looks like it’s consolidating a little bit before it’s ready to rally higher.. it’s at some pretty strong descending resistance (from 2 days ago)..  

9:59am
Taking profits on AAPL calls before 10 am reversal.. (29%+) 

9:55am
It looks like GOOG just completed the HEAD of an inverse H&S formation on the 10 minute time span.. maybe  it can now form the right shoulder… and shoot higher towards the 418 level. At this point this action looks a little like bullishness to me for the whole day.. but as long as you keep your tight stops it shouldn’t matter that much.  
 

9:54am
AAPL retested it’s neckline  of the inverse H&S today in the morning.. i went ahead and bought some call options at 136.35… and put a stop.  

9:47am
The SPY has just gap filled… and has rallied a little bit from here.. rememeber that we possibly have an inverse H&S and so we can go as far down as 88 or even 87.80 and still not call the 880 break..  GS already retested it’s H&S neckline as resistance and fall down… maybe this one is a short very soon… 

9:44am
Stopped out at 25.96… (1% profit) 

9:39am
MS gave a great short oportunity i shorted at 26.18… it’s at 25.92 right now and i just lowered my stop to profitability..  

9:31am
Here’s a daily picture of MS so that you can see that it is sort of falling apart after it closed for the first time in 3 months under teh blue line… that said.. is it a short when it hits the blue line again? maybe as an intraday trade with a stop.. but i’d be weary, because this market can shoot up 2.5% and shove MS higher 6-7%

2:20am
With a set-up like the one we had today, many people are assuming we move higher… I want to first of all let you know that I’m not positioned in any way bullish into today… I think we can see a lot of surprises to the upside and downside. That is why I’m probably not going to trade before 10:30 am… That said… I do believe that the initial strong move that we get tomorrow will be the direction barrer for the rest of the day, whether it’s up or down. The futures are above the 875 critical level, which means the SPX as of right now is above 880… Here’s my chart on the SPX… and my target for this upmove (if we have one) will be either the blue or red ascending lines.. and maybe the red bold descending line.. who knows maybe they could coinscide.