2:24pm
Relatively big INVERSE H&S in the Futures Market right now… on the ES… so be careful if you’re short this market seems to want to retrace… this so far falls very close to my video scenario.
1:23pm
Dow is now in the green, I have to leave.. I took profits on AAPL (0.4%+) and i’m putting a stop on GS below 143.60
1:16pm
I am playing this Inverse H&S on GS… and AAPL long…
12:35pm
AAPL 1 minute.. is forming a very nice triangle here….
12:27pm
GS inverse H&S on the 5 minute intraday..
12:23pm
AAPL looks a little stronger now that before… (though H&S still sort of in play, even though it’s at the bottom of the chart..)
SRS H&S take a look.. another potential reversal here…
Rememeber that i’m mostly in cash here.. and even though i’m trading a little intrday.. i’m not putting on big positions until we reach strong resistance or support…
11:57am
I believe this market can reach 88.20 today… if it wishes to even though i have had a few itnraday trades here.. overall (0.2%+ on them) the sentiment is down here.. and the rally that we had for the past 30-40 minutes was purely a bear flag it seems…
11:53am
SPY is reaching that critical 89.25 level which could be a reversal territory…
11:46am
AAPL has retraced 38.2% retrace from it’s rally from the lows to the recent highs.. and has formed a bull flag since… we might get a pop here..
11:31am
Dan Messer who runs Short-Stocks Hedge fund sees bullishness in UNG due to oversold conditions… of about 5-10%. He says this isn’t the best of trades but it looks like a potential buy here.
11:18am
SPY has bottomed a bit before most of the individual big cap stocks… SPY is already forming a bear flag.. but it hit a 38.2% retrace from the fall of today’s highs to the lows and it formed a mini bear flag and can continue to move higher..
11:13am
My portfolio is currently more than 80% in cash.. that hasn’t happend since… hmmmm…. decemeber of 2007? Market seemed to have bottomed in the last 2-3 minutes..
11:03am
GLD 1 minute triangle could be breaking down:
10:38am
GS H&S 1 min I am going short…. with a stop above 143.40. Stopped out at 142.70 (0.4%+)
10:12am
AMZN already broke it’s H&S neckline. But… it looks like it might need some bounce here…
10:09am
We might be forming a H&S on the 1 minute SPY…. this spy has more room down to go if it wishes to the 88.20 level but it can also rally up from here to levels of above 91 on the SPY. So the approach that I have is a wait and see. Lets see.. if it goes to 88.20, great i’ll buy some.. if it reaches some of the fib retracements from the beginning of the fall thursday.. i’ll add to my shorts. I have no clue why AAPL is SO WEAK today.
9:57am
This red candle before the 10 am reversal could be very bullish as we find some strong support levels:
9:49am
Volume is definitely back in the markets today… it’s great to see this action… we are going to retest a gap fill here… might get that reversal BACK DOWN at 10 am… again i’m not betting here on a swing trade.. it is still way too uncertain to know.
9:37am
Take profits on AAPL PUTS here… and hope you guys got out of your shorts… this bounce was very predictable…
9:17am
Assuming that the H&S had an ascending neckline… that neckline has been broken in futures market.. that said the market would want to retest that neckline (which sits at 89 or 89.40 or as high up as 89.90 on SPY) before we continue to move lower… so we might have a little push higher at open…. 88.20 is still strong support even after we break the H&S.
4:04am
Hey guys,
I’m looking at the futures and as of right now it looks like we will have a sigfnicantly lower open… the NASDAQ will start to look very bearish tomorrow as it breaks a longer term trendline and can have significant more downside. The S&P will be held up by the 880 level at least twice… and i do recommend taking profits at the open or soon afterwards… I still own some shorts and the only thing i’m willing to hold longerterm is my VXX (VIX ETF) which i think should get a nice pop in the weeks to come (as it hits a strong longerterm ascending support line). I do plan on going long around the 88.20 on the SPY (880 on SPX support levels).
RIFIN getting pinched pretty hard similar to the SPY. Thinking this could lead to a good move. Up if I had to guess……
secound stimulis = more monetizing our debt = falling dollar = higher equities
EUR/JPY looking bullish too….
———– FAZ ———- FAILED to break higher from the bull flag.
im still hanging on for more downside in the markets. upside action is far from convincing. of course, sneak attacks are par for the course.
——– $5.17 ——— 50% retracement of last leg higher.
this is the lower end of the gap on the 24th.
By my view, it’s still very much in the bull flag formation.
———- 200 MA SPX 886.50 ———- and still falling. that and the lower BB on the daily supported the market this morning and both are heading lower. patience bears.
McC Oscillator oversold 15,30,60 watch for a trend up and nice pop up tomorrow.
610.00 should act as good res on the RIFIN.
Dollar is well off its highs and actually very close to going in the red.
EUR/JPY on a run!
The 200ma is at 133.48 right now with the 20 about to cross the 50.
Expecting a bounce to at least 909 spx for a backtest of the daily 50 ma. 20 ema is at 913 and sloping down, could also backtest that. 909 would also be the 50% retrace, 914 the 61.8 so those look like good targets for me.
And again, don’t forget what I said in an earlier post from Fujisan, the left shoulder took 18 days and 2 left shoulders. If the right develops in a similar fashion (as they tend to do), we need another shoulder and more time.
if you are right i’ll die of boredom
I think that is the goal of our new overlords
GS double top from Fridays 150.00 looks like the target for the IHS….
Trailng stop on FAZ tripped at 5.23…. See if I get a chance to buy back in cheaper or if I end up chasing… I’m in no rush.
Should at least hit the 5.13 mark again today….if not lower.
———- FAZ ——— bull flags are bearish for this instrument
last few anway. the last few had fake out light volume breakouts and then nasty failures.
im tempted to buy in at $5.23 here. for this reason: alot of stops just under the gap support and decent support shown. however, i can wait until later in the day to see what comes of this move above 892. have a feeling it is gutless.
Back test of the 23.6% fib on my DJI chart is complete. Should be smooth sailing down to about 7980. This was also the 4th hit of this 23.6% fib so a break here satesfies the rule of 4 as well as making a wonderful H&S pattern. This is all on the daily DJI chart.
I choose FAZ for my attempt to ride the 8250-7980 train. Got in a bit early because I don’t have much time to be here today @ 5.36.
EUR/JPY needs to break the 132.92 level for us to move higher. Just reversing off res there….
———– SPX ——— tag of 895 ……… 10 min candle…. looks like a topper to me.
2 more hours we find out. im going to go for a bit.
H&S on UNG, broke its neckline… target 12.15
Bull flag EUR/JPY..
This is a painful tape to watch. It’s as if the left crook doesn’t know what the right crook is doing.
———- LONG
———— 500 shares : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=exe/un.to
nothing has changed. nothing to see here. continue unpacking… bye now.
No 2:00 dip let’s see what 3 :00 brings,looks like we grind up into the close. yyyaawwwnnn
todays action is actually very interesting…
Why do you say that?? Does it change your bearish outlook?
There goes your IHS on the /ES just poking above the neckline. This could get even more interesting.
For those of us who don’t have access to ES – can you share the neckline / target numbers …
Ruff 889.75.
Does not change my bearish outlook.. but it was a great trading day..
Anjali, here is a site that charts ES and all sorts of other things. Charts and quotes are delayed 15 min though.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.U09.E&v=s
——– SOMETHING I NOTICED ——— just as i was getting up to leave.
10 MIN SPX ———- A B C ———
hit this low: 887 — 892(a) — 890(b) —- 895(c)
since this all we have done is consolidate ——– X
the next move …. if we fail to close above 895 today…….. for me is lower. I”ll buy more FAZ
at the close if we fail 895
Is the world simply waiting for quarterly earnings releases to start before deciding which way to go? Shoot me now.
Another question for the people who were mentioning that today was a possible turn date …. due to lunar cycles etc …. doesn’t a turn date mean a pivot high / low is put in ….
All of us have been thinking that a pivot high will be put in and then we can crash …. however today’s numbers actually a pivot low @ 887 (key support) put in – across many days ….and we have not looked back yet …
In that scenario, we would be moving higher into the next pivot / cycle around july 15 / 22 – there were multiple dates out there ….. thoughts ?
Anjali,
see my post ABC is clear as day on the SPX 10minute. that is only thing that really rings clear to me. if we close below 895 the next move is likely lower.
Tomorrow is the actual astro turn date. I don’t know if it allows for +/- like other turn dates but I imagine it very well might. As far as your question, that applies to any turn date, it can be a top or bottom turn depending on which direction the market is going.
I don’t trust this little move lower…..
you have to trust the charts and if we dont clear 895… lower we go according to the charts…. what else can we go by?
I just meant this last candle on the 10m breaking below todays up trend. It was trying to look sick… As usual it regained its composure!
AND cause it failed to the downside……….we go up!
The /ES was just trying to make a run for it too. BB on the 10m in the way.
Broke and testing 895 as support …
i see a clean break on the 1min time frame. i dont put much faith
into the 1min candle formations. patience.
FAZ trying to poke its nose above the bull flag. (60m)
10ma on the hourly serving as support the past two hours.
$5.17 was my downside target posted earlier. if it gets there im going to buy more FAZ and if we close above 895 today i’ll unload it near the close.
maybe just maybe FAZ at $5.17 coincides with SPX gap fill wick 896.50
that is how im playing it. and if we fail to simply wick out ill unload.
order set… now i must step away
the chop that is sure to come
makes me sea sick at times. see if i can stay away for 15min
Here we go.
Jack says:
July 6, 2009 at 12:23 pm
We might be able to stay above 89ish today and see a fast push up toward 90.5 (may be not), then followed by another leg down.
Reply
im all cash (closed all puts this morning) scalped a Bidu call as well. Now i wait for 902-913 range to reshort.
Nice job
its about freaking time i make some right moves. perfected reading charts, etc…3 yrs of trial, error and losing butthole….lol, but i think i finally got it
Perhaps we close at 887-888 and gap up tomorrow
Todays close might be intentional to screw bulls and bears. Close right on a resistance point leaving everyone hanging, then tomorrow morning we GAP (up? down?) who knows, but it should be fun 2 watch.
I thought we kept saying.. when we break key support at around 910.. then 900.. etc. that’s when we go heavily short, but now that the key supports are broken, everyone is cashing out their shorts.
hmm.. I hope today ends higher so I can short more. Last 30 minutes!
———— DAG NAMMIT ——– shoulda coulda woulda … no FAZ for $5.17
however i had more DELL puts fill at $0.25 …. now they will expire worthless and FAZ will got to $12 …. TARGET FOR FAZ : $5.50
Looks like cup and handle on JPM 10m.
Has anyone taken a look at BAC? Huge nosedive in the past couple of days.
I wonder if they were the bank that had to borrow at 7% interest last week. Oh, a bigass bank failure would be sweet right now.
are you pure evil ? lol
It needs to happen. So far, all we’ve done is pull the bandaid off slowly.
Although, yes, I might be pure evil.
I heard them talking today on CNBC. They were saying the union was trying to organize among the bank tellers and was going to try to use their Obama support to try to get rid of their current CEO. Then I heard (I forget his name) one guy said something about I can understand unions organizing when it comes to life or limb but the only danger they have is maybe a paper cut. Anyway it sounds like trouble for Bank of America. I highly doubt BAC will go under since I heard they were one of the favored banks. Well not unless we have a total meltdown.
———— 895 ————– following the ABC corrective move on the `10min SPX we have failed to have one 10min candle close above 895. no gap up tomorrow please. im looking for downside to the 880 area and im game for it unless i see some strength above 895
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx_july2-1?context=latest this is my guide dog
I will be flying down to Atlanta on business so I won’t be around the next 2 – 3 days. Have a good one guys.
3:45 lift off
The question is .. do we short here or go long for tomorrow?
I am 80% cash, 15% long, 5% short. I’m just a spectator right now but I say we continue to move up (albeit ever so slowly) and hit the 38.2% fib. I don’t think we make it to the 50% fib
u r thinking 903/904
the 50% is 909
the 61.8 is 914
yep. we closed practically flat on low volume. granted that it’s a monday after a long weekend. maybe we zig zag between 903/904 and 898/899 until wednesday coinciding with alcoa’s earnings.
25% short at 904
another 25% at 909
and 50% at 914= all in
Once again the RIFIN ticker breaks…….?
———— FAZ ————— $5.17 CHA CHING ………… HOPE IM RIGHT
OK MR. MARKET……….. reverse and close at 894.99
FAZ made quite move higher without much correction.
Just thought of what you would say at 5.17!
The only res is the 200ma right now on the daily…….just be carefull.
Bear – which stock’s resistance are you talking about – on the SPX / SPY today we hit the 200 MA and bounced of it forming a quasi – bottoming tail …..
The RIFIN. For the FAZ play. I think next up is the 200ma 10m for tomorrow at about 620ish and falling.
Beautiful H&S on SRS playing out nicely
What is your target?
How to delete the post ?
Can’t delete… Once you click submit it’s out there for the world to see.
Nice call on GS Idan. You out of it EOD?
Yes I am… but i believe there is still more potential upside.
——— GAP FILLED ——– LOL …………
this did not go quite like i thought. exiting the extra FAZ
You could easily have a pull back in the AM to the 20/50ma on the RIFIN 10m cause this last min push as we all know was BS…….above the BB too. Just a thought is all.
my order never filled. so i have more shares at $5.17
i’ll add again
at $4.93 if it pulls back that far. otherwise i stick with what ive got forr now.
im now looking at entry $4.93
last leg higher was sharp $4.55 to $5.35 rounding off
$0.80 move. $5.09 1/3 retrace $4.95 1/2 retrace
FAZ $5.08 AH just below the 1/3 retrace.
Sizzling Blastpieces…
——– BARGAIN HUNTING ——— of course! that was the reason behind the late day market surge. nothing to see here. move on people. bargains galore in this market.
Got some cheap 52 ism calls for a 1 day play(.22) ,looking for .45-50 tomorrow.Scalped my 47 puts .58 got them last week for .28.Did not play out how i was hoping,but i will take what the market gives.
oops that should be iwm
for SRS followers:
7841 IYR AUG 27.0 P
There is also huge volume and open interest on the aug 31 P
Hey Guys. Couldn’t post today but no surprises. Kicked butt on puts, cashed out, and kicked butt on the reversal on calls. Continuation tomorrow? Hell ya.
sweet!
rollinglines.blogspot.com
The NDX is showing positive divergence in the A/D.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows168768288&disp=P
sell puts into the close,we should get a halfway decent bounce tomorrow,then resume down into next week.