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02
Jul
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3:59pm
3rd Strongest day for my portfolio for the year… i took off some more PUTS on the SPY… and AAPL… leaving me with small short positions into monday… and Gold. I also own some SRS and VXX and some SKF Puts which i plan to hold… Today’s market action was very indicative of the H&S that we have forming on the daily, and even though the volume was not there. It was the day before the july 4th holiday (3 day weekend) AND it was stronger than yesterday’s volume nonetheless!!! HAPPY JULY 4th TO EVERYONE, I’m going to go golfing for the rest of the day, and hopefully you guys will get to relax as well. I should have a video out either today or tomorrow.
3:45pm
Inverse H&S on the 1 minute SPY, AAPL, GS into the close… taking more profits around here..
3:24pm
We have reached my target for this sell off i took a lot of my shorts here… we might actually see us fall even further to reach my second target of 895 on the SPX… i’ll unload most of my shorts there… 10 min SPY:
3:12pm
AAPL falling harder than the rest of the market now… XLF new lows… GS strong downside too..
2:58pm
Today’s volume is extremly low.. if we end at the lows of the day i will sell 70% of all my shorts.. leaving me with 30% of the shorts I have on now which is about 15% of my portfolio short. I’ll be also looking to buy some GOLD if we end at the lows.. GOLD is not a perfect hedge.. but it is a great commodity to have in times of panic and commodity rallies..
2:21pm
USO hit new lows a few minutes ago… GS back with some weakness.. XLF at its lows… VXX at its highs for the day.. even though the actual VIX is not.. this could mean that there are a lot of ppl wanting this ETF as volume and volatility may have hit bottom today.
2:08pm
This move higher can STILL BE A FAKEOUT before a move lower… but in any case.. the VIX can fall to 27.30-27.60 before i become worried… and cover all my shorts..
1:52pm
Amen! Bearother! I’m taking some profits here.. cuz the UUP is not strong.. and GS is doing better… UNG new lows..
1:40pm
One thing to note is that we haven’t had a close below the 90.20 level on the 10 minute charts… so as soon as you see that happens, if that happens, you KNOW we’re going lower…
1:31pm
VXX new highs… GS NEW LOWS
1:26pm
BULLISH NOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME: UUP weakening. and the USO is strengthening…
1:24pm
XLF keeps making new lows… GS going to re-test the strong 144.40 level a 4th time today…
1:22pm
My SPY 1 minute chart trading in a channel:
1:10pm
GS at strong support but it already has formed a double bottom… and is testing it again… i’m bearish on the market despite it being tired.. my stops on the SPY are above 90.35 just in case..
12:37pm
XLF is to new lows.. here.. the SPY should follow to break to new lows… again rememeber my target for this move lower is almost reached.. we are only 0.25% away on the SPY.. and about 0.5% on the SPX…
12:15pm
There is still a potential for new lows today… but in any case… if we won’t see new lows today then we could see it monday. 90.20 on the spy is NOT critical support.
12:00pm
Low volume on the bounce from the double bottom ..
11:53am
UUP looking a little tired here.. AAPL rushing away from its new lows.. before it collapsed.. SPY had a little fake out… volume is definitely not there.. we have to see if we close this candle under or over 90.20..financials still weak.
11:43am
Most of my profits are to be taken off at 89.85 on the SPY no questions asked… SKF consolidated at where it seemed to break out.. and now it’s poised to shoot higher.. AAPL new lows… SPY to new lows.. and if the volume is more or less than half of that last candle..
11:39am
potential double bottom formation on the SPY here… for the financials its more like a triple bottom.. As we know.. Triple bottoms don’t actually happen… so guess what my friends.. it’s a Bermuda Triangle PENNANT formation…
11:16am
Art Cashin is talking about my H&S on CNBC. Weakness coming back in to teh market on stronger volume… H&S is really visible now… and the volume is there and this is just perfect.
11:13am
Small signs of reversal are popping their heads here…. inverse H&S on a lot of stocks could be forming… USO, XLF, SPY (look at the 1 minutes), and the Dollar potentially has a H&S… teh bears need to push this market much lower and really soon for this to cancel out.
11:06am
Market not finding conviction selling yet… except for AAPL is feeling some of it… 10 yr auction was a no event…
10:48am
We seem to be forming that potential bear flag… into the 10 yr auction 11 am hourly time.
10:28am
AAPL 1 min.. triangle formation.. That’s what i’m trading intraday here..
10:23am
New lows on XLF… also want to point out that the 10 yr auction is at 11 am.. and that, if strong demand is there could reverse markets temporarily… and so I would take some profits soon. The best type of bearish action towards 11, is a start of a bear flag starting the next 20 minutes…
10:19am
SKF (10min) looks very strong here.. it hit strong resistance but it’s barely consolidating… and it might move higher very soon:
10:13am
XLF has to make new intraday lows soon for this move to be sustained (GS already made new intraday lows in the last 10 minutes)… or else i’m taking my profits and i’m out of here with a 9% gain for the day.
9:54am
AMZN has reached my level of profit taking.. I will take all my profits in AMZN PUTS right now… and wait for a bounce (Trade: 138%++)
9:36am
H&S neckline at around 894 right now… So we still have a clear path to that number. that’s another 1.7% ish. AAPL has support at 140.2… but after that its strongest support is all the way down at 138.5$
9:32am
Markets down after horrible job data numbers… this might be the beginning of our right shoulder down formation… the volume is definitely there considering its the day before july 4th. AMZN before it opened was only down 0.75%.. it’s now down 1.2%, AAPL is finally joining in with the weakness now down close to 2%! Financials are also leading this sell off.. the VIX is up.. and the dollar is up and the oil is down.. This looks to be for right now.. a sustained sell off for the whole day.
Today is a data heavy day and tons of things to look out for, especially job data and bond auctions. The bears will really want to break 91.40 and even though the futures are slightly lower…. that might be incredibly hard because a lot of buyers will want to shove the market up before july 4th celebrations.
Employment Situation
![[Report]](http://bloomberg.econoday.com/images/bloomberg/byconsensus_butt.gif)
![[Star]](http://bloomberg.econoday.com/images/bloomberg/star.gif)
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
![[djStar]](http://bloomberg.econoday.com/images/bloomberg/djstar.gif)
8:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM E
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM E
10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM E
10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
NYSE will trade today beyond 4:00 today
4:15
July 2nd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
And the Easter Bunny comes tonight
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
My bad. Crazy computer nonsense.
will it bounce for Monday?
Bidding to close remaining FAS 7.50 P
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:02 pm
.25 (in .15)
—– NO BOUNCE FOR ME —-
we head lower slower and then pop up into OPEX?
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx_july2-1?context=latest
—- NATURAL GAS —– have not posted a chart but my thoughts are pretty
straight forward. $3.20 …… CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM. double bottom im a buyer.
Open for business until 4:15
875 Monday Book it
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Monday 908 book it
No really good reason, but bought some SLV (silver)
May sell off early mon, but we are going to bounce cause we r oversold. Bounce to 905-910 only though before we test 880.
Whew. Only holding
LVS Ps
GLD AAPL INTC Cs
60% cash
Have a good one.
Wow.. they are really trading until 4:15pm today.. the market better not rally.. I just sold off my spy calls.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
I just bought SPY calls in anticipation of a bounce Monday. Plus they serve as good insurance for my short options
UNG chart EOD:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UNG&p=60&b=3&g=0&i=p92329023649&a=111501027&r=323
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:22 pm
link to static image of above chart:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2l3mky.png
The dump may have started in earnest. We’ll know for certain by the middle of next week.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:38 pm
I’m surprised the market didn’t rally in those extra 15 minutes tacked on after the close (that would have been really sneaky).
Looks like those green shoots are turning brown.
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
They’re turning red. Click the link in the next message and see.
“One thing to note is that we haven’t had a close below the 90.20 level on the 10 minute charts… so as soon as you see that happens, if that happens, you KNOW we’re going lower…”
Thus spake the prophet Idan, and so it came to pass that a great bloody cascade did smite the vile bulls:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2v9vnzc.gif
July 2nd, 2009 at 4:58 pm
hahaha that made me laugh
Belated congrats on the 1000th thingy. I have daytime consultuing work next week. The number of intraday posts will be down 10%.
July 2nd, 2009 at 5:55 pm
we will miss you
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:17 pm
I will wear the $300 Mephisto sandals I once bought in Mizner in Boca to bring you luck on your consulting project, so you can serve as a counterexample to my theory about many people who hire us consultants, namely, that they do it so they will have somebody to sue for what they screwed up.
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Indeed. Well…at least it follows one of my best weeks ever.
“3:45pm
Inverse H&S on the 1 minute SPY into the close… taking more profits around here.. ”
Looks more like a bear flag, but at the time that was written, the bars had not fallen back thru the neckline and negated the IH&S:
http://i40.tinypic.com/r1hctv.gif
Because of the possible double bottom and reaching areas of horizontal and diagonal support in many indices, a bounce could materialize over the weekend or on Monday, so I also took profits after hours. It may leave some money on the table, just as with a few other trades in the past month. However, nobody ever went broke by always taking profits, and I am up by 40% since June 5 just from trading swings in FAZ.
THinking of holding FAZ till monday morning-thinking there may be a continued early selloff. Any thoughts?
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:13 pm
S&P futures off 2 points already.
Seven banks closed today which will be a one day record for this year.. West coast hasn’t reported yet.
The market to watch over the next two days is the Hang Sang which has run up more than any other market. China is using their state enterprises to prop things up which is in the end is a losing strategy.
Today’s unemployment report is a wake up call for the rest of the world. You cannot spend your way out of this recession by taking on more debt.
Once government stimulus checks and other short term boosts run out you are left facing the same old problem which is too much debt and leverage.
The only way to fix this is to come up with a second stimulus package which will help consumers, banks and governments to manage and reduce debt.
Consumers have to save more.
Banks have to deleverage and sell assets to raise capital.
Governments need to get their budgets in order reduce spending.
This is going to be a long and painful process. There is no short term fix and a V shaped recovery was never possible to begin with..
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:28 pm
FAZ topped out after hours at 5.22 and is back down to 5.14. I sold out after hours as stated in the previous box. XLF has reached an area of strong horizontal support from previous bottoms and from the 20-day and 20-hour lower Bollinger bands. The indicators are strongly oversold:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2v0ixq1.png
True, XLF could fall thru the horizontal support and complete an inverted (bearish) Cup & Handle (turquoise dotted lines), but given the last minute bounce that put a shadow on that final candle, along with XLF’s after-hours dip to 11.35 and bounce back to 11.43 (so far), it is also possible that current prices for FAZ could be a faint and distant memory by the time we got another chance to sell it.
Hmm,,,sorry. I just ‘had to’. I wasn’t too proud of it yesterday, tho today I see I was ‘correct’. Who’d a thunk it…
7/1/2009 12:52:29 PM Order Filled You have bought contract(s) of QQQQ JUL 35 Put. @0.23
7/2/2009 2:58:38 PM Order Filled You have sold contract(s) of QQQQ JUL 35 Put. @0.48
7/2/2009 2:47:11 PM Order Filled You have bought contract(s) of QQQQ JUL 36 Call. @0.55
Already down 10% on this one. Will double tho, Monday am. (hehe) Could be a ‘dble loss’. lol