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01
Jul
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12:34pm
Market is still undecided, i have to leave right now, i will be back later… we will get a reversal if the volume stays this weak… and the dollar strengthens.. amazon keeps making new lows…while AAPL is holding firm.
12:05pm
We are still hovering around the area of breakout.. and the dollar has weakened a lot which could help the market rally back up to test the 93.22 and potentially break it… oil was at its lows a few moments ago but bounced from it.
11:30am
We are restesting prior resistance as support now.. if we move higher from here we’ll probably break the 93.22 level… if we break down.. we might be in for a strong sell off..
11:17am
Some weakness in the stock market…. oil has backed off significantly from its highs… AMZN looking very weak compared to its sector, financials haven’t made a new high yet and seem a little tired…
10:54am
There is a potential bull flag formation as we hit the 93.22$ level. The market over the last 25 minutes as fallen very slighly on low volume… 93.22 is the top of the left shoulder, so if there is symmetry in this daily H&S then it would start falling around these levels.
10:21am
We’re potentially breaking out of the inverse H&S… a confirmation on the hourly above 930 would mean that we have broken out and probably cancels the bigger H&S in play.
9:55am
Somethings to pay attention to as we hit 10 am reversal… the market is very close to its highs… but the financials are weak…. tech is relatively strong… and the dollar is weak. Goldman is actually down for the day so far.
Today, could potentially be an important day as we might either break out and form a 60 minute inverse H&S, or we might break down and form a H&S visible more on the 10 minute.. a breakdown will also favor the larger H&S that can be seen on the daily. Here’s what i’m looking at (60 min spy):
up , weak dip until 3:45 than close at highs
July 1st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
i also think we rise into closing.
i don’t buy this dip and short term fake out.
———– YIPEE —— ALMOST SETTLED INTO NEW HOME
———–
internet just hooked up now in time to see that i was stopped out of half my FAZ at $4.57 . i sure know how to pick the bottom with my stops. this sucks eggs! somebody needs to help me pick stops. i put half at $4.57 and half at $4.52 … if it hit $4.52 and quickly reversed …oooooooooooooo.. id be rightly pizzed.
July 1st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
that keeps happenin to me i put bigger stops now
July 1st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Richard, Why FAZ? The 10:1 is a set up. The banks are going to have great earning reports! Yikes!!!
July 1st, 2009 at 3:37 pm
short term trading with stops. it is not moving too quick and if i was watching im sure i would have held on.
*Taps Monitor*
Looks like the program trading is a little late today…
July 1st, 2009 at 3:20 pm
they are makin you sweat !
———- 932 ——— wow! what is the excuse for this move other than JULY 4th coming? this is why i waited for the end of this week to load up. may even get one more push? wish some of put orders triggered but nothing hit.
92.44 is the 61.8% retracement of the move higher today on the SPY. maybe backtesting that price before shooting back up?
Betting fake up. VIX and FAS are telling me short is the place to be at least into early tomorrow.
July 1st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
9.24 pivot on FAS…tell time
For those of you who follow astrogly and turn dates,we have a huge one on July 6th.Like them or hate them lately they have been much better than charts.Trade your way
July 1st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
?? Are you saying July 6 will be a big up day or down day?
July 1st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Will be an IT top or bottom if you follow those turn dates. Right now if you want to short the market you want the markets to rise into July 7th.
July 1st, 2009 at 3:31 pm
But the question is based on the flat market we’ve been suffering through, which way will it “turn”?
July 1st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
OPEX is early this month. if we get a nice up day tomorrow illl move my prices up on the PUTS i have lined up for JULY OPEX. not finding too many with the nice spread i got last month. need a big move one way or the other to provide opportunity.
VIX firmly above pivot. Next stop 26.35ish
July 1st, 2009 at 3:35 pm
….which would fill today’s opening gap
Here comes our dip 3:30
Just checking in for the EOD…..can’t say I would trust this move lower? Although GS looks like it’s been weak all day.
922s are the next set of fibs.
What a joke
July 1st, 2009 at 3:38 pm
That’s what my wife’s parents said when they first met me…. it still stings….
VXX taking off!
took a small bite of apple calls earlier…
If reality sets in the RIFIN will close on the 200ma. Buy Program will put it at 635.60.
backtestesd the 925.8 fib…
still a bull indicator….
Guessing the big boys want a green finish. 921ish?
who cares what do they know
LVS breaking down. PALM looks ready.
July 1st, 2009 at 3:50 pm
still have my PALM $17 puts. max pain sits at $13. the whole PALM hoopla is overcooked. it has to come back to momma one day.
LOTS of fibs here. and trend line…
but 4th test of the trend line…
should be interesting tomorrow.
i’m holding calls on apple and spy.
good luck!
July 1st, 2009 at 3:54 pm
WOO, that is probably an ok play. dont see much risk going into JULY 4th. my birthday i might add. im going to abstain from the upside but im going to really load up for the downside going into OPEX. have 6 more put positions and hope 4 hit targets and fill. hope you are right about a push up
dont want to chase.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:08 pm
happy early birthday. my mom’s birthday is july 5th.
for you:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p88229013428&a=160227340
i tried uploading, but stocktock social is giving me an uploading problem.
so far we’ve been playing a LOT of areas that correlate to a move towards 938…
July 1st, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Not being able to see this woo – could you upload as a separate discussion item with your rights as a Stocktock contributor …. so essentially you are seeing a move upto 938 … even with the push down in the end ?
Happy Birthday Richard – should be a good celebration with your move into a new house … Congratulations !!
July 1st, 2009 at 5:00 pm
quite possibly. i couldn’t upload for a bit, so i’ll try again later.
but if we dip south of where we are, it could be a bear scenario.
tomorrow will be crucial.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Here is a static image of woo’s chart.
http://i44.tinypic.com/23jg0ox.png
I emailed him ( . . . again . . . ) with instructions for making these.
July 1st, 2009 at 11:41 pm
Thanks Uner !!
VIX is at 26.18 right now. A close above 26.35 will confirm a sell signal. If it confirms, equity markets could see a major drop very soon
July 1st, 2009 at 3:57 pm
ok,….going on vacation now…promised the wife I would not trade but holding VXX long and CERN short.
have a good 4th everyone and let’s hope North Korea does not try to nuke us.
Took $$$$ on a few FAS P and VIX C
Took a few OXPS 17.50 calls on a vol alert
Closed right above the bottom uptrend line
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows167649584&disp=P
July 1st, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Click the spx 5 min chart
July 1st, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Gap fill then ????
Good times. Good $$$$$ day. Positioned with
FAS P
VIX C
PALM P
LVS P
One more day. Have a great evening. Clean up then martini time.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Also…INTC C hedge and a gamble on the OXPS. It RARELY has any options volume but a JUL block of 500 and AUG block of 1700 the 17.50 strike caught my attention. Who knows. $5 slot money.
July 1st, 2009 at 4:34 pm
You still drinking vodka martinis with olives ?!
July 1st, 2009 at 4:59 pm
I wait ’til 5 pm. Must be 5 o’clock somewhere
July 1st, 2009 at 6:36 pm
That’s what my Father-in-law says. But seriously, you cannot put olives into a perfectly good Vodka Martini. That is just plain wrong. Drink Gin or leave the nice vodka alone. What are you?….in politics or something!
——— FAZ ——— if you connect the top of the GAP OPEN on JUN 24 and the tops you get a nice resistance line. poked above it to make a head for hs pattern. poked above it briefly near the close on the 25th for the right shoulder. we are cleanly above this trendline today. it cuts through $4.64 today. i can see FAZ pulling back once more to back test this trendline. this line will cut $4.60 around the closing bell tomorrow. im going to add to position if it holds $4.60 at the close tomorrow.
——— GETTING DESPERATE TO CREATE ANOTHER BUBBLE ——–
source CNBC.com
Homeowners refinancing their mortgages through loans backed by government agencies will be able to borrow up to 125 percent of their homes’ value under new regulations enacted Wednesday.
holy fargin nuts!
July 1st, 2009 at 4:15 pm
DEAR US TAXPAYERS.
your nieghbour bought more house then they can afford. so sorry that you worked that extra job and paid extra taxes to pay off your loan early. but you will now be financing your neighbours’ lifestyle through our new HOMELOANERSHIP program. please get back your second job so we can collect the extra taxes required when this blows up in our faces. let’s create a new mess to fix this mess. by george i think we’ve got it.
THE “ever clueless” OBAMANATOR
July 1st, 2009 at 5:00 pm
AH…our kids can pay for it just like we paid for our parents social security.
Happy BD to you and WOO.
How’s the new house?
July 1st, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Can Obama just let people get booted out of their homes they couldn’t afford. People ignored the risks and bought into a home hoping for a nice return, it’s tough, but boot them out. Then people will learn to be responsible and careful for their actions.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Q: How do Social Security and various other government machinations differ from Madoff’s Ponzi scheme?
A1: More people get screwed.
A2: Vastly greater sums are involved.
A3: The bagholders are little kids, some as yet unborn, even not yet conceived.
A4: Nobody confesses.
A5: Nobody apologizes.
A6: Nobody goes to jail except maybe victims who decline to participate.
July 1st, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Enlightening Perspective
July 1st, 2009 at 9:07 pm
Don’t forget the death of the concept of retirement. Pensions are a thing of the past and due to years of poor savings habits, those that would be of “retirement age” will not be able to afford to retire and thus drag out the social security charade a few years longer via their payroll tax contributions.