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01
Jul
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12:34pm
Market is still undecided, i have to leave right now, i will be back later… we will get a reversal if the volume stays this weak… and the dollar strengthens.. amazon keeps making new lows…while AAPL is holding firm.
12:05pm
We are still hovering around the area of breakout.. and the dollar has weakened a lot which could help the market rally back up to test the 93.22 and potentially break it… oil was at its lows a few moments ago but bounced from it.
11:30am
We are restesting prior resistance as support now.. if we move higher from here we’ll probably break the 93.22 level… if we break down.. we might be in for a strong sell off..
11:17am
Some weakness in the stock market…. oil has backed off significantly from its highs… AMZN looking very weak compared to its sector, financials haven’t made a new high yet and seem a little tired…
10:54am
There is a potential bull flag formation as we hit the 93.22$ level. The market over the last 25 minutes as fallen very slighly on low volume… 93.22 is the top of the left shoulder, so if there is symmetry in this daily H&S then it would start falling around these levels.
10:21am
We’re potentially breaking out of the inverse H&S… a confirmation on the hourly above 930 would mean that we have broken out and probably cancels the bigger H&S in play.
9:55am
Somethings to pay attention to as we hit 10 am reversal… the market is very close to its highs… but the financials are weak…. tech is relatively strong… and the dollar is weak. Goldman is actually down for the day so far.
Today, could potentially be an important day as we might either break out and form a 60 minute inverse H&S, or we might break down and form a H&S visible more on the 10 minute.. a breakdown will also favor the larger H&S that can be seen on the daily. Here’s what i’m looking at (60 min spy):
SPX H&S
For those watching the h/s on the $SPX– technically, since the potential neckline would slope up slightly, the right shoulder could also be a little higher than the left. I still see this as a flawed pattern, however, as I illustrated in a chart yesterday. The concave or double-v character of the left shoulder makes it somewhat suspect.
[From another blog.]
We have some negative divergence in the NDX A/D. The SPX A/D is strong and holding up well.
July 1st, 2009 at 11:08 am
92.92 is the Pivot Point Indicator S/R line on my 2min SPY chart.
BOUGHT VIX JUL 25 C 3.00
BOUGHT FAS JUL 9 .50
60/40 long
Free noon et live market analysis with Bryan Shannon
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/343448898
Stopped out on raised limits on NOK TBT. GS MSFT getting close. Added to all puts
The topping candles at 10:30 on 1m SPY seemed pretty indicative of a short term top. Bulls need another catalyst or we should just drift down
FYI – the webinar Optic mentioned in post 4 above just began.
neo update: Based on the size and speed of June’s decline, we can say with near certainty that our top is in and a new, multi-month bear market has begun. There is a remote chance that one more new high occurs, but it is still bearish. The cash S&P 500 bottomed at 888.86 in late June, so a slow, gradual deterioration in value must occur through August. A break of this year’s low is not likely until September or October, at which time, a near market melt-down will be underway.
Anyone seeing the possibility of a bear flag developing on the SP500 on the 60 min chart back to Jun 24. The top of the channel might be 935ish. Just pointing it out so we see everything. I’m in Canada full cash and enjoying a day off
GS breaking north. One more pop and I’m out
July 1st, 2009 at 12:08 pm
PALM looks toasty. Will grab some puts shortly.
July 1st, 2009 at 12:28 pm
just picked up 20 contracts on de puuutttsss
AIG reverse split and sold down hard, as expected. Too bad I missed it. Options are not repriced yet and no shares to borrow though.
You know you’re having a good day when you are long on a green day and even your short hedge (SCO for me) is up over 2%.
July 1st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Nice job
July 1st, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Nice. I’ve got a similar situation.
BOUGHT PALM JUL 16 P .85
July 1st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Limits hit on MSFT calls bought yest. avg +20%
Holding GS as a hedge. Chart still looks good, but all red team otherwise.
PALM LVS FAS P
VIX C
For what it’s worth
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
boy, AMZN looks bad
Dunno. Just sensing a big flush down to set up for a happy 4th weekend on Thurs, which will be deader than a doornail.
July 1st, 2009 at 1:08 pm
I would have a tough time believing that they would reinforce the horrible consumer confidence numbers with a major move down just before a holiday and make the mood even more horrible … at worst we may see a slight move up / down …. but would not expect a flush either way before next week …
Also, notice another thing …. everyone is talking about the H&S on the index … from a contrarian standpoint, no one seems to be noticing the inverse H&S that we have broken above … so would Mr. market just give everyone what they expect – thoughts ????
does anyone know the leveraged inverse oil? basically the opposite of DXO
July 1st, 2009 at 1:08 pm
DTO is the Powershares 2X short oil ETF. I use SCO (the Proshares 2X short oil ETF) but they are both effective.
SPY up about 1% and USO down about 1.4%. It will be very good for bulls if oil can decouple from the market like it has today.
The market has not moved at all.. I thought they halted trading..
July 1st, 2009 at 1:24 pm
haha. it almost looks like it huh? this last week of consolidation has been SOOO much fun…
AMZN trying to break down through 3 day support
July 1st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
done
I delcare AMZN motivationally distoyed…..unless it double bottom at 82.50.
anyone covering AMZN as it nears the 20 day ema ($82.2)?
July 1st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
trailing stop at $.30 about price. Will close out EOD for sure.
July 1st, 2009 at 2:06 pm
82.02 looks stronger
July 1st, 2009 at 2:22 pm
3x today I told myself that I missed the boat on shorting AMZN and it continues to go down. Might be a sign for me to not execute a trade today.
Upside targets: 938–946.
Trap door open. GS faltering.
92.60 is the Pivot Point Indicator S/R line on my 2min SPY chart.
Decent bust out by VIX. Next R at 26
Last of the GS calls limit hit. 4.30 (in 3.55)
sold my puts for a small scalp.
might see a 3 wave up here….
could go to 925.8 area before rising if it does at all..
July 1st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
big fat gap at 927.60. Doubt that will go by without a return trip today
July 1st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
This pattern is still bullish consolidation on the 60 min chart …. also it is the test of the necckline of the inverse H&S that we broke out of this morning … that target is at 95.30 … so be careful … neckline 92.60 …
This is the same inverse H&S that I pointed out yesterday
July 1st, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Are you talking about the left shoulder at 6/17?
July 1st, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Hi 3 min … yes left should 6/17 … head 6/19-6/23 and right shoulder 6/30 to 1/7 and we broke above the neckline ….
20 / 200 MA is strong support @ 92.32 …
50/100 MA are strong support @ 91.95 ….
so to break down need to break through a lot of levels …. in addition everyone in the worl is pointing out the H&S on the charts …. sometimes when it is so obvious it does not happen … and specially just before a holiday weekend, when people will relax and hopefully shop ….
July 1st, 2009 at 2:45 pm
looks like a weak InHS but I did just cover at 81.65. We need to retrace and there is a ton of support at 81.50.
July 1st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows167649584&disp=P
Seems to me if that up channel fails its a long ways down to the larger bottom channel
July 1st, 2009 at 2:33 pm
look at the 50 and the 200 ma on the 60min….what do you see?
FAS pooped the triangle. 9.27 9.16 next
Hedge
BOUGHT INTC JUL 17 .61
I think I might hold my AMZN short another day…it is really falling apart.
July 1st, 2009 at 2:24 pm
same here. i bought the 75’s
all we need is a 200 point gap down monday to break into 77$ or less
ung
Siting at neckline of h&s.. having troble taking out 13.60
July 1st, 2009 at 2:28 pm
sorry, I meant its sitting on its support trendline
July 1st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
wait for 13.34ish….maybe even 13.29. If it can hold that…it is a buy.
VXX looks like a good buy and hold
925.8 fib defended.
covered AMZN..
July 1st, 2009 at 2:52 pm
mean
July 1st, 2009 at 3:11 pm
amzn attempting to backtest 81.66 (200 ema)
for all who cover WFC: 15000 WFC JUL 23.0 P 12:36
July 1st, 2009 at 2:48 pm
heavy
July 1st, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Meaning people betting on it going down …. right ?
FAS wedging. Breakout south comin?
At this time the SPX has retraced less than .382 of its move from yesterday’s low. The price retracement is worse than that of the A/D which is holding well. The momentum indicators are lagging, so we are left with some negative divergence. Another negative is that we did not really break above 928.
off topic
progam trading
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0U1vMUa2sc
July 1st, 2009 at 3:16 pm
that s wicked it right , the market should go down like a brick , it s just they don t want that stuff on tv
July 1st, 2009 at 3:17 pm
wow !!
July 1st, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Amazing.
If he’s right, we’re all just sheep being led to the slaughter. When people wake up to the “reality,” it’s going to be too late.
Thanks for sharing.
July 1st, 2009 at 3:40 pm
it is true
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/nyse-halts-transparency-feels-goldman.html
put the clip and the article together.
wow..the market is just sitting there doing nothing….it’s driving me insane…
July 1st, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Here you go Woo… this is more exciting.
http://www.mirimgs.com/webcam/paint.html
July 1st, 2009 at 3:04 pm
definitely better…
Get ready for the 3pm fireworks show…
In VXX at 66.80. Let’s fire up the nerves!
Al,, Mchugh has been horrible this year
i just check that youtube , he is right
VIX tagged R and failed. Guessing it’ll have another shot at it @3:30ish
July 1st, 2009 at 3:08 pm
FAS busted that wedge as expected. See it it backtests/confirms
can’t test 925.8 anymore…if it does, it’lll probably just drop.
market better make a decision quick…
we’re trading against machines !
bear flag on fas
July 1st, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Busted. I see 914 as next major stop. Trendline 50ema BB
July 1st, 2009 at 3:23 pm
yeah, that looks good
July 1st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
watch out 200ma !
it’s goin to drop
so , is this market goin to go down or up anybody ??