|
01
Jul
|
Hey guys,
First of all it’s my honor to give you the 1000th post… stocktock has been such a great community for me and for everyone I know, and it’s great to be here about a year later with 1000 posts. I want to thank both Craig and Scott for letting me blog here and to thank you guys for helping me become a better trader with the questions and feedback you provide.
Lets get to business:
I won’t have a video today but I’m writing a small pragraph about what happend today. We got a fakeout above the 92.80 level early in the morning and then we moved lower to form a very nice topping reversal candle. The volume wasn’t strong as we get closer to july 4th but the action was relatively bearish. The market reached the high of 93.22 which was a perfect fakeout as the left shoulder of the H&S’s high is at 93.22 as well, that makes the H&S daily symmetrical, and gives the bears more reason to shove this market down tomorrow. I called the fakeout on stocktock early on as I saw the dollar strengthen somewhat and oil plummet, I also said financials did not really participate or make new highs and so a chance for a fakeout was still there. I still am short AMZN which made a new low, and AAPL which seems to be slightly stronger. I think shorting AMZN to 78-79 level looks good to say the least.. and then maybe a break down of the H&S daily on its chart could push it down to new short term lows. AAPL can fall but it has ascending support by taking a line from the two lows in may and in april around the 138.20 level. That said, we are not full blown bears yet… I am positioned bearish into tomorrow but the action might not come to furuition because its the day before july 4th, and the market will have low volume and could get propped up by the government. The key level to watch for a break to the downside is 91.40, where’as any break above 93.20 will be very bullish, or any close above 92.80 is bullish as well. We have a lot , a lot of data coming out tomorrow so maybe there will be some more volume than today.. rememeber we’ll find out about the 10yr auction and 30 yr stats tomorrow, as well as jobs report.
AAPL daily:
AMZN Daily:
SPY 60 min:
Congratulations for the 1000th, Craig. Thank you for your consistent contribution here, which helps a lot.!~
July 1st, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Thanks Jack, but I hardly post anymore. It’s the other contributors that are consistent and dedicated. As are our visitors, so thank you!
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 am
Hi Craig, I am one of the very few who starts the connection with you and with StockTock. You are so deep in my impression that I automatically input you instead of Idan here. Thank you both, Idan and Craig. I learned a lot from the videos made by you guys. Have a happy holiday.—Jack
Ha..im still short Amazon also…..and Palm….SPY…CME….
Short ATI, WLT, ERTS, and MON. Long FAZ and MEDX. I am a bear, that’s for sure!
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:27 am
FAZ and MEDX move in almost perfectly opposite ways, so why own both?
http://i43.tinypic.com/357q8hk.png
Has anyone seen the divergence in the last couple months between the dow and nasdaq?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ:$INDU&p=W&st=1934-01-01&en=1934-01-02&i=p91787421614&r=9295
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ:$INDU&p=W&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t23845903897&r=2558
Anyone looking to short the nasdaq and go long on the dow?
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:48 am
Here is a free version of the chart for those who are not stockcharts.com subscribers:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ:$INDU
BTW, if both Dow and NAZ are dropping, it is better to just be short the NAZ. Of course, if one were swinging for the fences, there is TYP, the 3x-levered ETF that bets against the techs . . .
We closed right at the bottom of the channel we have been trading up in since the 23rd, so unless we gap under that bottom support it should move up towards the top of the channel at least in the morning.
July 1st, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Nice job btw Idan, your work is always appreciated and congrats to everyone involved with stocktock.
July 1st, 2009 at 9:19 pm
I agree, depending a little on massive change in jobs report.
July 1st, 2009 at 10:50 pm
about 929…yep, great call.
July 1st, 2009 at 10:51 pm
922*
see yall at SPY 85 in about 5-8 trading days.
——- AMZN ——— max pain is $80 with $5 interval strikes. a target of $78 is supported by the options action in this stock. too bad ive been busy moving or i would have entered too. taking $85 puts for a target of $78 to $80 does not provide the risk reward and right now im staying put with JULY puts and FAZ. good luck in the trade IDAN!
July 1st, 2009 at 11:38 pm
—— PCLN ——- tried to add to my JULY 115 position today but the bid just missed. ive moved up my bid for tomorrow as this one has a MAX PAIN OF $100 and trading at $113. the PUT price to PRICE target offers better than 250%. hopefully it does not sag at the open. we need another pop / drop or flat day to get our PUTS at a delicious price.
July 1st, 2009 at 11:47 pm
——— DELL ——- almost fits the bill for a short term options play.
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/07/01/throw-this-stock-away.aspx
JULY 14 PUTS last trade today $0.79. stock is $0.60 itm and $0.20 premium. this seems fair to me. if it reaches the writers $12 target and delivers the pain to that open interest of $13 calls… $0.79 = $2.00 = 150% potential. i like to find stocks that offer 200%+ as short term puts are risky and it is alot of work to find good candidates. this round ive not had much luck as the market is close to the pocket now. going to keep DELL as a candidate.
Congrats Idan, Uner, Woo, Shanky, Mohan and other posters on ST …. you guys do an awesome job and keep us coming back …..
Also, congrats to all of us regular posters on the site
… we keep things interesting 
– here’s to many more years of this … growing as a community and helping each other make the moolah !!!
Cheers