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30
Jun
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3:50pm
Last candle of the day… so far we have had really strong volume to the upside as we get closer to the 92.40 level… if we break above it.. we will probalby see an Inverse H&S.. and if i’m right we should see the market back away from that level and form a H&S instead and start falling towards the 880 level.
2:42pm
No doubt we have a double bottom formation or an inverse H&S on the SPY 10 minute, but the real question is can we rally above 22.40 and form a bigger inverse H&S on the 60 minute… or do we fail to do so and fall back down… 22.40 also coinscides with the 923 level on the SPX.
1:16pm
AAPL holding up while AMZN is extending its loss today.. again I continue to see AMZN falling 8-10% over the next week or two.
12:43pm
From Anjali, who is very very correct:
We have a inverse H&S on the sPY – you can see it on the 60 min clearly … and today , we just came back and tested the neckline …. just now we pierced it and bounced off the 200 MA 60 min …. if we can manage to close above 91.64 on this candle …. it is still a viable one … the target for this is 95.3
12:33pm
Triangles are breaking out and not down… we might be seeing some more consolidation from this move lower, before another move lower..
12:20pm
I have been trading this AMZN triangle formation on the 5 minute, it seems like it’s not following the indices, it’s just trading on its own haha:
11:59am
Another potential bear flag that is forming into the new hour of 12 pm… AAPL and AMZN are surprisingly resilient.. but GS is down quite significantly after it hit my target price that i showed on my video. 20 SMA 5 min sits at 91.58.
11:34am
Financials still remain stronger as the market continued to shot dow, however the strength to me looks more like a bear flag. What IS stronger is tech, and that’s no doubt about it… both AAPL and AMZN are still up for the day, though they have given in some territory as of the last 20 minutes.
11:14am
Something to note.. is that we are already quite far below the 923 level which means that the bears will be able to complete their H&S if this stays this way… and we move lower tomorrow. The VIX has finally picked up dramatically 6.5%, and oil is tumbling. The bear flag lasted 20 minutes and then we broke down yet again… we might need another one very soon to sustain such a dramatic drop. The volume today is also incredibly high.
10:38am
Expect some bear flag to form very soon the SPY.. for the next 10-30 minutes..
10:16am
We are pushing below the 923 level guys, this is EXACTLY what the bears want… lets see if we can hold this level until the end of the day.
10:10am
Wow strongest volume candle for a 10 am reversal IN A WHILE… and it’s huge!
10:02am
10 AM reversal definitely in play as consumer confidence plummets to under 50 at 49.3 from 54++
9:50am
Potential topping hammer candle on the SPY….
9:41am
Mixed signals out of the gate:
Housing potentially slowing down it’s rate of devaluation… but in some places things are just as bad. SPY up about 0.2%, UUP (dollar) also up slightly, oil is now backtracked significantly (USO) negative, tech is stronger, and the yields are rising sharply.
9:23am
H&S on the ES futures contracts just before open… is that a sign for a reversal? we hit 925.5 on the futures which was the high, and also the descending resistance line of the bear market.
I will be gone for the early morning hours of trading, I suggest watching both Chris and my videos.. to get our perspective on what we think could happen as the month ends!
10 am consumer confidence!
Futures as of 12:34am EST are +0.00, +0.25 and +0.75 (flat indeed)
something i watch…. 20% of the SP500 equities have regained thier 50dma in past week
i wanna go all in.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spxa50 …….. perty impressive mr. market. watch for this to backtest 50 on the RSI as a possible spot for the market to roll over and play dead. im guessing this chart will show a price around 50rsi by end of week. that will be to lay it on thick with the shorts. im starting to lose patience
Morning All. Quiet morning here? It’s summer.
Besides TA, another reason AAPL is lagging?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/146145-the-eu-stabs-apple-in-the-back
Oscar is long NQ today. I believe he may be right, but plenty of news to manipulate today, so who knows.
http://www.livewithoscar.com/images/charts/VIDEO%20063009%20NQU9%20~%20Daily_06302009_000421pm.png
Still holding AAPL RIMM FAS puts, VIX calls. We shall see. Luck all.
June 30th, 2009 at 8:54 am
But…..warnings signs are abundant:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
June 30th, 2009 at 9:01 am
and…. UNG calls, USO puts
June 30th, 2009 at 9:23 am
UNG chart with my ideas on how the commodity is developing (those who are playing this commodity, what are your thoughts?)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c1d4a339-f93a-4efd-9701-2f994f75eb79
June 30th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Zee – cna you post a static image ?
June 30th, 2009 at 9:36 am
FL – what are you thinking for UNG ?
June 30th, 2009 at 9:43 am
I can’t see a bullish case.
I will sell if we don’t get above the H&S neckline today.
Static image in the social photo page.
Hi guys, just found this floating out in blog space which is actually pretty important. On July 9th both FAZ and FAS will do a reverse split. FAZ will do a 1:10 split and Fas a 1:5 split. You know what that means!
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=6396328
June 30th, 2009 at 8:56 am
what does this mean?
June 30th, 2009 at 9:05 am
In the short term that means when the split happens both Faz and Fas will be at $50ish again. As we have learned from the first go around, time decay and sharp movements destroy these 3x over time, so perhaps some way otm, back dated puts on both are in order when this splits.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Or if you have the funds, short both.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:09 am
there will be no more decay than if the stock were 5$. Albeit more downside room for “decay”
June 30th, 2009 at 9:12 am
reading the supplement, it says outstanding shares will decrease by 80 and 90%. I think you will have a very hard time finding shares to short when this happens at first. Options may be the only choice for shorting.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:16 am
I thought reverse splits usually get people optimistic about the stock. I guess it doesn’t matter in this case since it’s an ETF
June 30th, 2009 at 9:20 am
There are two types of splits. The reverse one is the “bad” one that usually gets sold. A company does it when they want to artificially increase their stock price. I have seen it a few times over the past year or so when a company wants to avoid getting delisted from the NYSE for example for not metting the min requirement on the stock price. My experience is that these get sold back down hard since nothing has really changed with the actual company.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:22 am
I think you are thinking about stock buyback programs, which is different.
Be careful shorting.
There is no Catalyst yet for the market to just tank. most ppl think economy is improving. Many fund managers who didin’t do well first half of the year are trying to make up for it. We could just continue to rally into fall/winter.
Trending123.com who is a perma bear went bullish last few weeks. He says many bearish patterns have failed and many leading stocks and indices are about to break out of bull flags
June 30th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Cobra calling for morning pullback but also states fireworks set up triggered too?
strange opening candle,imho, on de spx 1 min all the way from 920.20-928.07?
HOD? I’m adding to AAPL/RIMM puts for a pullback to MAs. AFter that, dunno.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:49 am
As for UNG…prone to big swings. Willing to ride it out and see if it recovers. May not happen in time for OPEX. Perhaps some longer term OOM call strikes would be a play. Not my style.
Big selloff on $AIG this morning must be noted for financials
June 30th, 2009 at 10:11 am
my father is still long…waiting for management to “turn things around”…lol
morning all…happy eom/eoq…interest rate reversal on treasuries, TLT gap down and TBT gap up…auction this week may add to supply concerns…if economy heats up then bond investors may dump Treasuries for Corporates…but then if rates get too high too fast then investors worry about chocking off green shoots…
the fact that this high 928 area is even holding is a bull sign to 944.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:51 am
we could drop first, but after a decent drop, i might consider taking a short term long position.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:53 am
hit trend line.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:53 am
bounced off north of trend line.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Whats your go long spot?
June 30th, 2009 at 9:55 am
944 short term, if it keeps acting in the way that it does.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:57 am
but like i said, i’m hoping for a bit of a dip before.
but if we’re steadily above the 928.8 area, i don’t know if the shorts will have any luck getting out of anything decent, or the bulls have a better opportunity of getting in short term….
needs to dip quick for the 5 minute 928.8 to hold.
June 30th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Sorry, I meant what is pullback/buy spot to go long for your 944 target?
June 30th, 2009 at 10:00 am
IF it pulls back….922-923 area would be ideal.
Vix not showing much reaction in either direction
Will get back on the TBT train at 51. If no retrace, won’t chase a sailed ship.
50ma at 926.5
June 30th, 2009 at 10:03 am
potential fib forecast at 925.05.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:06 am
low 924 is a 6 month trend line and fib.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:09 am
now around 922? consider going long??
June 30th, 2009 at 10:11 am
let it drop a bit more…
it should backtest and retest…
i’m going to consider going long.
Target met on AAPL. Took 1/2 profits. See if it breaksdown or consolidates.
Hedging
BOUGHT NOK JUL 15 C .50
well, my 922-923 area hit.
good luck to any shorts =)
June 30th, 2009 at 10:10 am
got out of my puts for a nice profit.
——— SOMETHING HAPPENING TODAY? —— of course! the movers arrive at 1pm so im going to be cleaning cleaning cleaning. got my Maid Skirt on and ready to get at er. protective stop for the FAZ i bought at the close.
———- FAST ——— PUT -100 FAST JUL@35 $2.20
had a limit order fill on that blip up
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
June 30th, 2009 at 10:31 am
Best of luck with your move Richard !!
June 30th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Moving eh? Must have missed that. Have fun!
June 30th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Hey, don’t pick on FAST — they’re only just up the road from me.
922.87 is a fib….
not sure if it’ll create a solid markation on the chart or not there…
Nice cliff dive by USO
i’m waiting for 922.8 area to hit solid before buying calls.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:15 am
can even dip below a bit to hit the trend line at 921.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:18 am
long
June 30th, 2009 at 10:19 am
200ma and fib at 920.7-8 area.
COULD hit there before the major bounce.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:22 am
looks like the dip is too strong. fibs blown for now…unless the rise is equally fast….
I’m aboard the FAZ train at $4.58. Looking for SPX at 903 and FAZ at $5.00 later this week.
we could just head to 915.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:28 am
We’re you just calling for 940 and going LONG? Are you just throwing darts or do you use some kind of meaningful TA?
June 30th, 2009 at 10:30 am
he said a dip and then to 940 or so… and the dip is a bit stronger…
June 30th, 2009 at 10:31 am
it could still head to 940s. i’m just calling the short term points that are hitting and what that could mean long term if certain thresholds hold.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I use this site for short term TA.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=shows168768288&disp=P
June 30th, 2009 at 10:48 am
i don’t count all wave patterns like columbia, so we differ a bit. i know a lot of people that follow columbia though. =)
June 30th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Woo knows what he is saying !
thx Woo
June 30th, 2009 at 10:44 am
haha. well we’ll say which way it goes.
i’ve been saying since last week that it could go north OR south because we’re still within the potential 3 wave extension scenario.
if we cross above 930 we’re looking at a very bull scenario.
if we dip below 904 is more clear towards the bear.
we’ve got a good amount of fibs in the 913-915 area, so i think it’ll hold short term, might be a decent place to play a bounce and trail stops.
current short term upward targets are at 920.
Anyone have thoughts on wells fargo,i have some july puts and am getting mixed chart signals. Thnx.
June 30th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Dman …
In my view …signs on WF are bullish – we finally broke out of a multi-day bull flag . popped below it for 1 minute and touched the 60 min 200 MA and bounced back above the top of the channel ….
indicators positive … volume average …
However, keeping a tight stop … but this has all the way to run upto 28 and even 30 … just a disclosure is that I am holding Aug calls….
Woo – this was the breakout we were looking for from the channel – what are your thoughts ?
We might see 910 today; especially if the funds that are overweight equity due to good 2nd Q sell (or are selling at the moment) like i thought they would.
914.9 is the 38 retrace area of the drop from 956.
trend line slightly below that at high 913s to low 914s.
USD is ripping & roaring higher.
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/06/30/the-case-for-a-turn-here/
Of course while I was doing this post I missed the turn and the trade. Just my luck.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:46 am
morning Shanky-
Do ya’ think the traders are heading to Sea Isle or Hilton Head early this week?
thanks for post…
June 30th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Don’t know. Two nice destinations though. They can afford to go wherever they want that’s for sure. I’m headed to Colorado all next week! I’m looking for low volume stuff and more manipulation. Time will tell if that channel is gonna hold or not.
I’m really not liking the UNG chart.
H&S on the OBV confirmed.
Also note, the bears of NG have one more channel to take out before UNG goes to 12$.
We will have to see how it develops.
I’m long with a stop below the channel and will switch short accordingly.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c988bf11-2e6b-47d8-aa8e-f38a38dee745
June 30th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Zee – not showing any channels on the link …. can you post a static image …. or write out what you are seeing i.e. channel points etc
Based on my analysis 1368-13.70 is a key area – a clean break of that would mean more downside ….
also – 13.70 is a double bottom from pre-market … so should expect a bounce …
June 30th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Mini Inverse H&S on UNG … neckline at 13.89 – target 14.10 if we break out …
June 30th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Here’s what I’m seeing.
If you take the lows from 26th of may, 4th of june and today, you have a upwards trendline which coincides with the neckline of a H&S pattern.
The trendline for today lies at 13.66-13.67 (which also coincides with what your seeing). If that breaks, things will get ugly.
So where do I see UNG going? How should we play it?
It is important to note that the ADX is declining on the UNG.
When ADX is declining and at a level below 20, it suggets low volatility, very short swings; no trend’ & and you should only use oscillators.
When looking at Oscillators (RSI, Stochastic & Williams %R; H&S patterns in the making appear on all of these indicators). However they have not tested the neckline, but a further drop in prices will lead to a test of the neckline, and possibly, a breakdown.
Time and time again, the stochastics has dipped down to about 5 on the daily (it happened 8 times in the past 10 months), and then there was a short-term bull run. 7 times out of 8 there was a bull-run followed by a upward crossover (fast stochastic crossing the slow stochastic ). Right now the stochastics is at 16 (making me believe we can still go down to 5).
Go long with a stop at 13.65.
If the trendline breaks, go short with a stop at 13.75
June 30th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Good analysis
June 30th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Good find, looks like the IHS is in play now.
I bought this dip.
June 30th, 2009 at 10:55 am
what did you bought?
June 30th, 2009 at 10:58 am
XLB
917 first retrace of 897-929…
June 30th, 2009 at 10:58 am
50 – 913
62 – 909
Took $$$$ on USO puts. Raised stop to bk even.
June 30th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Bidding TBT 51 calls here at 1.40
Hey guys, don’t trade Apple today without watching our newest video on Apple and RIMM.
http://stock-market-club.blogspot.com
June 30th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Not workin that way today or since this video came out
From ZH
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/confidence-market-divergence.html
The last time we got a -2.42 standard deviation between confidence and the market, things got real ugly, real fast.
Wa wa we wa. Look what we have here. I open up my browser and see red. I like this.
There are a lot of ways to draw trend lines. I mostly see charts showing the “big bear” line, “n-tuple nut”
point. But I’ve also seen charts showing more wiggle room for upside. That said I held my short positions and I’m not so sure I’m ready to cover yet, at this point I’ll take profits if we sink much lower, or add to the position if we move up. I still have to favor this big down trend.
——— JUST CHECKING IN ———- BULL FLAG FORMING ON FAZ
im looking for a 32% retrace of this 13 point move …. around the 920 area. I’ll add to my FAZ there. if it dont retrace i’ll just enjoy riding the FAZ i have for now.
2 bathrooms cleaned. 2 more to go.
………. check back in a bit. someone yell real loud if the market hits 920
Trap door time. Will cover most puts/vix calls @909
June 30th, 2009 at 11:36 am
TBT order filled
SRS isn’t being friendly…someone protecting this jewel?
June 30th, 2009 at 11:54 am
ANSWER: YES
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/ppt-hiring-mortgage-quant.html
at the pesky 908.6 on /es…this has held lately…watching bounce here.
HS on the RIFIN. Just at neckline.
The AAPLblinking red and green. Took more $$$$ on 140 P
IWM might as well be green today
Idan – something to keep in mind …
We have a inverse H&S on the sPY – you can see it on the 60 min clearly … and today , we just came back and tested the neckline …. just now we pierced it and bounced off the 200 MA 60 min …. if we can manage to close above 91.64 on this candle …. it is still a viable one … the target for this is 95.3
“think” we’re setting up for one more flush down. Putting in low bids on GS MSFT Cs, VIX Ps
Ok. Out for a while. Orders in. Stops in. Check in later.
Anybody short Crude?
I got paid overnight at $73.07 in the futures market.
Took half back this morning just under $70
Looking for $66 next week.
Pete
hi idan,
what do u think about s&p today and tomorrow.
and about gold and dollar
thank’s
June 30th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Well.. it really depends if the market continues to break down… in order for me to get pure bearish this market has to fall below 91.20… if that happens tomorrow should be another horrible day.. (unless today’s close is very very ugly to begin with).
If this is the move… then gold will fall and the dollar will rise. GLD has an inverse H&S on the 60 minute but it might fail if we truly are in a new correction…
——— 3000 FAZ AT $4.68 ——— the MAs crossed and that is one nice Bull Flag
June 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
this is only for a quick scalp. if this is ABC for FAZ ==
A = $0.18
B — completed?
C=A = $4.86 target. ill let go of the 3000 early and hold what i bought yesterday
June 30th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
———— TIGHT STOP ———– must hold the 15 period MA
————- 917.25 ————– 25% retracement.
913 was fib.
917 next fib.
we’re above the trend line now.
50ma and 200ma currently crossing right now at 920.
SRS very weak today, probably Case Schiller data. Time to buy a house
SRS has a very defined 5 min resistance trendline now just above 19.90, in a channel as well. Also, the rise up from the low was on higher vol than the currrent sell off