Intraday Commentary ~ 06/30/2009

3:50pm
Last candle of the day… so far we have had really strong volume to the upside as we get closer to the 92.40 level… if we break above it.. we will probalby see an Inverse H&S.. and if i’m right we should see the market back away from that level and form a H&S instead and start falling towards the 880 level.

2:42pm
No doubt we have a double bottom formation or an inverse H&S on the SPY 10 minute, but the real question is can we rally above 22.40 and form a bigger inverse H&S  on the 60 minute… or do we fail to do so and fall back down… 22.40 also coinscides with the 923 level on the SPX.

1:16pm
AAPL holding up while AMZN is extending its loss today.. again I continue to see AMZN falling 8-10% over the next week or two.  

12:43pm
From Anjali, who is very very correct:
We have a inverse H&S on the sPY – you can see it on the 60 min clearly … and today , we just came back and tested the neckline …. just now we pierced it and bounced off the 200 MA 60 min …. if we can manage to close above 91.64 on this candle …. it is still a viable one … the target for this is 95.3 

12:33pm
Triangles are breaking out and not down… we might be seeing some more consolidation from this move lower, before another move lower..  

12:20pm
I have been trading this AMZN triangle formation on the 5 minute, it seems like it’s not following the indices, it’s just trading on its own haha:
amzn5
 

11:59am
Another potential bear flag that is forming into the new hour of 12 pm… AAPL and AMZN are surprisingly resilient.. but GS is down quite significantly after it hit my target price that i showed on my video.  20 SMA 5 min sits at 91.58. 

11:34am
Financials still remain stronger as the market continued to shot dow, however the strength to me looks more like a bear flag. What IS stronger is tech, and that’s no doubt about it… both AAPL and AMZN are still up for the day, though they have given in some territory as of the last 20 minutes.  

11:14am
Something to note.. is that we are already quite far below the 923 level which means that the bears will be able to complete their H&S if this stays this way… and we move lower tomorrow. The VIX has finally picked up dramatically 6.5%, and oil is tumbling. The bear flag lasted 20 minutes and then we broke down yet again… we might need another one very soon to sustain such a dramatic drop. The volume today is also incredibly high. 

10:38am
Expect some bear flag to form very soon the SPY.. for the next 10-30 minutes..  

10:16am
We are pushing below the 923 level guys, this is EXACTLY what the bears want… lets see if we can hold this level until the end of the day.  
10:10am
Wow strongest volume candle for a 10 am reversal IN A WHILE… and it’s huge!  

10:02am
10 AM reversal definitely in play as consumer confidence plummets to under 50 at 49.3 from 54++ 

9:50am
Potential topping hammer candle on the SPY….  

9:41am
Mixed signals out of the gate:
Housing potentially slowing down it’s rate of devaluation… but in some places things are just as bad. SPY up about 0.2%, UUP (dollar) also up slightly, oil is now backtracked significantly (USO) negative, tech is stronger, and the yields are rising sharply.   

9:23am
H&S on the ES futures contracts just before open… is that a sign for a reversal? we hit 925.5 on the futures which was the high, and also the descending resistance line of the bear market.  

I will be gone for the early morning hours of trading, I suggest watching both Chris and my videos.. to get our perspective on what we think could happen as the month ends! 

10 am consumer confidence!

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.