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30
Jun
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3:50pm
Last candle of the day… so far we have had really strong volume to the upside as we get closer to the 92.40 level… if we break above it.. we will probalby see an Inverse H&S.. and if i’m right we should see the market back away from that level and form a H&S instead and start falling towards the 880 level.
2:42pm
No doubt we have a double bottom formation or an inverse H&S on the SPY 10 minute, but the real question is can we rally above 22.40 and form a bigger inverse H&S on the 60 minute… or do we fail to do so and fall back down… 22.40 also coinscides with the 923 level on the SPX.
1:16pm
AAPL holding up while AMZN is extending its loss today.. again I continue to see AMZN falling 8-10% over the next week or two.
12:43pm
From Anjali, who is very very correct:
We have a inverse H&S on the sPY – you can see it on the 60 min clearly … and today , we just came back and tested the neckline …. just now we pierced it and bounced off the 200 MA 60 min …. if we can manage to close above 91.64 on this candle …. it is still a viable one … the target for this is 95.3
12:33pm
Triangles are breaking out and not down… we might be seeing some more consolidation from this move lower, before another move lower..
12:20pm
I have been trading this AMZN triangle formation on the 5 minute, it seems like it’s not following the indices, it’s just trading on its own haha:
11:59am
Another potential bear flag that is forming into the new hour of 12 pm… AAPL and AMZN are surprisingly resilient.. but GS is down quite significantly after it hit my target price that i showed on my video. 20 SMA 5 min sits at 91.58.
11:34am
Financials still remain stronger as the market continued to shot dow, however the strength to me looks more like a bear flag. What IS stronger is tech, and that’s no doubt about it… both AAPL and AMZN are still up for the day, though they have given in some territory as of the last 20 minutes.
11:14am
Something to note.. is that we are already quite far below the 923 level which means that the bears will be able to complete their H&S if this stays this way… and we move lower tomorrow. The VIX has finally picked up dramatically 6.5%, and oil is tumbling. The bear flag lasted 20 minutes and then we broke down yet again… we might need another one very soon to sustain such a dramatic drop. The volume today is also incredibly high.
10:38am
Expect some bear flag to form very soon the SPY.. for the next 10-30 minutes..
10:16am
We are pushing below the 923 level guys, this is EXACTLY what the bears want… lets see if we can hold this level until the end of the day.
10:10am
Wow strongest volume candle for a 10 am reversal IN A WHILE… and it’s huge!
10:02am
10 AM reversal definitely in play as consumer confidence plummets to under 50 at 49.3 from 54++
9:50am
Potential topping hammer candle on the SPY….
9:41am
Mixed signals out of the gate:
Housing potentially slowing down it’s rate of devaluation… but in some places things are just as bad. SPY up about 0.2%, UUP (dollar) also up slightly, oil is now backtracked significantly (USO) negative, tech is stronger, and the yields are rising sharply.
9:23am
H&S on the ES futures contracts just before open… is that a sign for a reversal? we hit 925.5 on the futures which was the high, and also the descending resistance line of the bear market.
I will be gone for the early morning hours of trading, I suggest watching both Chris and my videos.. to get our perspective on what we think could happen as the month ends!
10 am consumer confidence!
————- THESE MOVES ARE MORE AND MORE COMMON ————- quick move in one direction and then stall stall stall. same as to the upside. have to keep that VIX in check i guess. im looking for the market to stay under 917.25 and FAZ to hold the 15 period MA on the 15min chart. our first leg was 17 points. if C=A we hold just above 900. at best i think we see 905 today. also open to the possibility that we stay in this area.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
——– FAZ ———- perfect bull flag on the 15 min chart.
no more perfect technical set up than this. so im scared
June 30th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
——– 1:00 ——– go time. FAZ 15 perriod has caught up to price just at 1:00 so im expecting something to give soon . i cant sit here all day… gotta move
June 30th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
if this 916 area breaks, u may get your scenario.
backtest of trend line… at 916.
June 30th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
trend line held
June 30th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
crack…
June 30th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Woo – can you help us out with possible scenarios you are seeing right now ?
———— IM STILL SEEING ALOT OF GREEN ——— alot of the stocks i follow are still ringing green despite this sell off in the Financials. very interesting.
PALM +4%
EDU +2%
NP +7%
Starting my switch to the green team
BOUGHT MSFT JUL 24 C .55
BOUGHT GS JUL 150 C 3.45
BOUGHT VIX JUL 27.50 P
DOubled up NOK JUL 15 C (avg now .45)
Closed VIX 32.50 C +7%
VIX 30 C +5%
Closed RIMM JUL 70 P + 5%
Will hang on to remainin USO puts and a few AAPL RIMM puts as hedge
June 30th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
look at the FAZ 15min —— it is screaming go RED. stops are in… right?
June 30th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
when FAZ hits $4.86 im thinking of selling some of my puts.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
ME? STOPS?
June 30th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Ditched FAS P slight $$$
Few positions left in UNG calls (ouch) and TBT calls
Too many positions and will cut back be EOD and hold VERY few into the weekend.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
FL – what are you doing with UNG ?
June 30th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Long (calls) since yesterday and getting butt kicked
June 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Just saw a chart over at slope of hope, very bearish looking. Lost the support trendline
June 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Me too
.. but I have Jan 15 calls ….
June 30th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
On the daily, lost 50 RSI, 20 MA crossed down through the 50 in a bearish cross, vol increasing on the sell off, gapped down under support trendline and tested from underneath. Seems very bearish to me. If you like the position long term might want to get some protection by selling some calls against your Jan calls.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
I am thinking that UNG is just consolidating at the bottom here … lots of support below it from the upward support and support at 13.71 … also the triangle that is broke out of … the top line is now as support just under 13.60 … what I think is happening here is a transfer from the scared public to the MM and then once this is complete – it should move up…
MAX pain for July is 15 …
Also on the 10 min chart … essentially flat lining so that we can get above the 10/20 MA cross and then push up from there …
That being said my stops are in just below supports …. and I am getting kicked right now
June 30th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Taking back to the 20ma? Hmmm
June 30th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
think that is a crowded trade. hearing about it everywhere. i only scalped it a while back. waiting until everyone is talking about somthing else.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
I see an explosion either way.. We will probably get a hint of the direction when volatility picks up on Thursday, when inventory reports come out.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
We got the push up that I was expecting to break out of the consolidation pattern ad above the 10/20 MA on the 10 min chart …
Zee – agree, the Thur report could play a big role here … what are you planning to do – hold through it ?
Zee / FL – What do you see as your targets ?
June 30th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Because $natgas was able to hold it’s neckline today, I will hold until it breaks.
Inverted Batman on IWM forming right wing
anyone else thinking we are breaking down out of a bear flag on /es?
June 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
yes , but this market has alot of fight in it.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
10million shares in last 15min for FAZ and can’t break out.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
thinkuing volume will probably be the tell of the next move. its gone to near zero for the last hour and a half.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
/es just had an upside burst…first of several to get us to 38& fib…from there who knows…just sold my puts.
Thinkin ES will break above this channel….might take a while
June 30th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
OOPS there is goes. Dumped the AAPL puts. Nice one day trade
Only short position left is RIMM P
June 30th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Flippin fake outs!
June 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
All over the place, having very hard time getting over that 912.50 /es area. I am really hoping for at least a 38.2% retrace from the highs this morning to the low but just isn’t happening yet.
June 30th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
rolling over….volume not confirming yet. lets see how this holds up
———- FAZ ——— failed to break out in my time frame…… sigh. have to get back to moving so i sold them at $4.72 …….. net $100 …… what a drag. dont trust stops in 3X
back in a while
Another mini inverse H&S on SPY completed … target 92 … neckline 91.64 …
June 30th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Don’t know if you guys follow any of Cobra’s stuff but his fireworks setup triggered yesterday. When this happens the next day ends green, so far 81% (30 out of 37 times). Keeping this in the back of my mind.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
June 30th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I do read his stuff sometimes – pretty good
.. did not read it yesterday … .thanks for sharing …
June 30th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Broke the neckline with decent volume …. let’s see if it holds through the end of the candle …
June 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Looks like we are on our way up …. break up and confirmation on 10 min chart
200ma/10m, the last of the rope, is 913.96.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Crack …
Idan – for those not already in the AMZN trade – what entry and how are you playing this ?
June 30th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
right now i would wait a bit…. maybe go short around 83.40 with a stop above 84.10 area..
sorry just got back from an hour long meeting.
slightly below the trend line and fibs at 915, but there are some strong numbers in the 913 area 2-3 fibs there.
RIMM: Holding out for gap fill. Keep raising stops
June 30th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Limit out 2.30 (avg in 2.10)
We are in a 3rd wave.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
there’s also a chance that we finished a 4 wave down…and are on a 5 wave up, that could be a really large rise…
gotta be careful captain.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
5min chart –
897-929 – 50 retrace 913
889-929 – 38 retrace 913.9
50ma coming down currently at 915.99
NQ still drives the bus. Until they start leading down, it’s still buy the dip day IMVHO..subject to change. Bought the turn at ES 909. Bull flaggin but need some VOLUME!
slightly above 50ma…
June 30th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
917 is retouch of ascending trendline and the 38 fib.
Hi crew. Stopped into the Soda Sps ID library to brush off the backcountry dust and take a look at the last trade hr. Nice to see your posts.
Woo- 917 the break point if we’re to rally into the close? A quick TNA trade woud help pay for the broken weld on the bed hitch.
—— checking back…. lowered my ASK on FQA JUL09 35.0 P sold $2.60 gain $0.40
see that FAZ is not looking so healthy anymore.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
————- 917.25 ———— this is a number i was looking for and we never saw. prev retrace failed to make 917
June 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
next im watching 918.40 and 921—– back to ye old 918-20 area?
June 30th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
GAP IN MY 5 MIN CHART @ 918.17 to fill
June 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
crack
June 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
market above the trend line. above a lot of things.
if it keeps rising, the bears better watch out short term…
but it can still dip DEEP and have the 5 minute avg end below the trend line. so far it’s bull though.
June 30th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Inverse H&S in #9 playing out – target 92 …
200ma on 5 min is at 920.
some trend lines at the 923 and 925 level.
this is what i’m thinking….if this market is going to go bull, watch for a FAST rise because the market will want to bull cross the 50ma and 200ma.
if not then it’ll remain hard to tell which way the overall market direction is headed. either way we’re back in the upward ascending wedge.
22.40? Woot I”m rich, my puts are way in the money!
What woke up TBT?
June 30th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
lol faker!
————- FAZ ———— $0.21 RISE 1/3 retrace holding at $4.68
June 30th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
but but but………. dont quite want to enter this late. movers here soon.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
and and and ….. the chart needs to shape up a bit more. looks dangereux
The market is holding Friday’s lows. The SPX may get down to 907-8 before resuming the up-move. There is not much weakness in this correction. The NDX is doing better than the SPX. The A/D is not severly affected. If we do not get much more weakness, we should soon be in a position to challenge 928 once again.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Thanks Al …. any other updates from Mchugh, TII or VRT ?
June 30th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
McHugh & T-I-I are the same people (Technical Indicator Index). He repeats himself too much. VRT is history. I dropped him. I have three fairly good end-of-day subscriptions at this time. When I get 3 out of 3 in agreement. I will give the word. If at 3:50 PM you don’t hear from me, I means,I have nothing to say. I wish good trading to you all.
Rut not moving down with rest of the market,very bullish ,always leads the trend
June 30th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I don’t know if you can trust rut right now. If you remember over 10% of its componets (sp?) were just replaced on Friday. I noticed yesterday when the market was up Rut was down. Until it establishes itself again and works out the kinks I wouldn’t put to much faith into it.
You know that report that was showing how much Goldman Sachs was controlling the market ? The NYSE just killed it.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/nyse-halts-transparency-feels-goldman.html
June 30th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
WTF’s happening to our country.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
B A R A C K
O B A M A
June 30th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
we should’ve asked that a LOOONG time ago haha. now it’s too late=P
June 30th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
So, it sounds like the public will no longer have access to the record related to program trading. Am I understanding this correctly?
June 30th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
It looks like the proposal for this came in 2007.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
uh-huh. pre-O’B. Dem or Pub they’re all in it together.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Excuse me but OB is far from an innocent inheritor of previous administration’s problems. Timmay is doing all kinds of mischief and he is a front runner for this administration’s policy.
So whether the proposal was pre OB or not is irrelevant. They are pushing it through NOW. When you’re the Captain and it happens on your watch then it’s your responsibility. That’s how it works.
big red from the trend line and fib.
now back above it again…
might just keep rising into closing.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
line still barely holding…
June 30th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
$UVOL-$DVOL still wicked low…we touch the 38% for the day and drift into the close…gap down in the morning imo.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
bulls trying to beat the crap out of that trend line…
i don’t think it can hold much longer…
EOD?
NQ Green
SPX DOW RED
Headline: Stocks End Mixed; Techs On A Roll
they finally broke down the trend line wall…
920 is 200ma.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
923 has a couple fibs resting together..
we don’t have to stop at the 920s, we could just blow past it so that the 50ma bull crosses the 200ma.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
nearing tgt of inverse H&S @ 92 …. 92.05 to be exact …
What do we need to end the month green is the important question
June 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
June monthly SPX is a beautiful doji…almost perfect.
My money is literally on it that the market will shoot up in about 10-20 mins.
Will add to shorts at eod as this is the count I have been following from one of our favorite new counters (well new to me)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show%255Bs168768288%255D&disp=P
June 30th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Assuming it doesn’t blow these retraces out of the water with Woo’s 5th wave up
June 30th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
i’m holding calls into tomorrow.
sold half position of calls, and will hold the other half into tomorrow.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
200ma on the 60 min AND the 5 min is at the 920 level…
June 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Yeah that may have been it, also 38.2 retrace from todays high to low
June 30th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
exactly.
bears have to be really careful here..
we’re back in the ascending wedge. possible 5 wave starting, going back to retest the 200ma.
bounced off the trend line and held.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
So Woo … what are possible targets for Wave 5 or better still ranges ?
also – at what point will the wave 5 possibility be negated ….
Ignorance galore … but are you looking at a 5 wave up starting or a wave 5 starting ?
June 30th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
i REALLY should start blogging again on the main stocktock site, but i’ve been so busy that i haven’t had time.
maybe i can make time tonight or early tomorrow morning to post some comprehensive thoughts and possibilities.
either way i’m not leaning heavily north or south, this area is actually really hard to call because the possibilities for a rise or a fall are 50/50 since what i believe is the 3 wave minimum has finished.
i’ll try and post some counts and explanations. won’t be a golden standard or a know-all tell-all, but it’ll have some fun facts everyone can pull and make their own decisions from.
Fibonacci Alert: 919.55 on the SPX is the 38.2% retracement moving back towards today’s Highs.
I know people going short on AMZN … has someone seen the massive inverse H&S completing on the AMZN chart …. you can see it on all timeframes from June 12 onwards …. this is huge … neckline at 84 … and target ~ 90 …
June 30th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
I see a wedge
June 30th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Yes – one way to look at it ….
but if you look on the 60 min chart … the start of the wedge pattern on 23 june also forms the head for the inverse H&S
Closing calls into the close. One more pop thank you.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Hoping on that last minute pop for the quarter too
word of caution…this 200ma might hold very strong….if the market rises enough, you’ll get the 50ma overtaking the 200ma similar to a bull cross. then you’re looking at a possible bull market for a bit if it continues to rise in that manner.
the 4 of 5 (if it’s a 5 wave) doesn’t need to do a full retrace to the 38%, we ALMOST got there, but barely missed it.
the bears are going to want to see a drop below 918.
the bulls are going to want it to just stay above that level.
June 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
916.66 would be a nice fill spot for EOD.
seems a bit far off though.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Well – how’s that for a close – 918.03
June 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Woo – can you pls post your updated chart on social ….
Also – is there a way to make your chart public ,.. like Shanky’s – then we could see what you were saying vs just visualising it …
June 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
sure thing.
there’s a chart below. i’ll try and post my charts more regularly throughout the day. just keep asking if you need an update midday and i haven’t updated.
3min – i’ve been seeing a wedge too:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-17
June 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
trend line is holding into EOD so far…
June 30th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
and a right sholder being created there too.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Thanks Woo …
Note to self: AMZN made four attempt at the resistance on the 60min….and failed.
This is setting up perfectly for a gap down tomorrow. 50% retrace of drop this morning completed and pulled back.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I don’t think so,.. even though I would like that. We could see 923 tomorrow for sure for resistance and right shoulder. Might be better for the bears if we first go up to 923.
Have a good day, all.
June 30th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
i agree with 3 min. the push up was pretty strong. even if we’re headed down i the long term, it looks like the possibility of a push higher is still strong.
have to be careful if you’re bear at the moment as we didn’t break south of the trend line just yet. if we break south a good amount and get under some fibs, i’ll be joining the short boat.
Got into FAZ at 4.64 Swinging it over night
May 31 close – 919.14
June 30 close – 919.35
Wow
June 30th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
May 29 close… 31st was a Sunday but you get the point.
More short then not right now, although my puts are vertical put spreads so I am fine either way the market goes in the morning. If it gaps up I will close my short puts, if it gaps down I will close 1/2 long puts.
June 30th, 2009 FTV Afternoon Report
http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.asp?Display=1144
Whew!
Closed 60%
GS +10%
UNG – 30%
MSFT +6%
VIX Ps +15%
Held onto TBT calls +11%
NO bid on NOK calls (flat)
Betting on 923 then rollover to the red team.
Wednesday Jul 1
Bank Reserve Settlement
Monster Employment Index
Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
came back for the close and bought 1,000 FAZ at $4.65 …. the 50% retrace of todays move. im expecting this to be an ABC move for FAZ at the least.
A = $0.21 @ $4.75
B= 50% retrace $4.65
if C=A= $4.86
im using the candle bodies as per usual.
movers are late
wont have internet tomorrow so im setting a stop on my FAZ at $4.57 —dont trust these stops but ive done it to myself 
fyi: they usually rally the market into the july 4th weekend….i would be short at eod july the 2/3rd, whenever they close it
June 30th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
My plan is to close my shorts tomorrow. Jobs on Thursday, i think this we will finish the down move tomorrow (sell the rumor on the jobs) and then up into the weekend.
June 30th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
I could not disagree more…but that is what makes a market!