First of all I want to go ahead and admit that I was wrong when I said that the market would go up early in the morning and then reverse in late trading to fall about 1-1.5%. That was my intuition but it obviously didn’t happen. The market continued to stay at very strong resistance but failed to break it. It looks like my down day might get delayed by a couple of hours and take affect either tomorrow or the day after. Tomorrow is an important day as it is also the last day of the month. At this point i would rather be more bearish than bullish as we have the H&S formation still in play and a lot of resistance from over head, and today’s volume was incredibly low (as low as fridays or even lower). I look at different charts to show how the bearish side looks more promising, but I stay neutral on some action. I view SPY, XLF, GS, AAPL, AMZN, VIX.
Idan – I think your TA analysis is spot on in general. You were wrong this time because the overriding factors are 1) month-end and 2) GS’s successful reversal of what should have been a clear break last Thursday and 3) after USD/Euro broke down it’s H&S (USD strengthen), it reversed and is not trading in a non-directional range. Shorts are looking to pile on but want to see confirmation before getting burned again. I think we are going to close flat/slightly up tommorrow. Wednesday and next Monday will be key. Vix should find major support at 24-23.80 (bottom trend line of falling wedge on the daily). The key leading indicator to watch will be USD. USD. USD. USD. Despite our bias that market should break lower, if USD continues to weaken, all bets of markets heading lower are off. Keep up good work, Idan.
Mr. DOW has no where to go but down. Monthly tells all.
http://i41.tinypic.com/k2z3t1.png