2:51pm
We could get a strong move lower indicated by the following bear flag action on the SPY 10 minute… low volume… and a break of 92.50 will confirm it.. 92.40 is a double bottom, if that breaks it’s over for the bulls for at least today.
2:40pm
AMZN really a lagger in this market.. i continue to hold puts on this name… and aapl. AMZN is testing an ascending 10 minute support that has been holding it for about 4-5 days…I think it might break it today though…
2:12pm
Markets are potentially forming a bear flag formation on the 1 minute or 3 minutes. What the bears want is a close below 923.. preferable a lower close than the open…to form a hammer candle.
1:26pm
AMZN and AAPL falling apart here.
12:35pm
New highs for AAPL, AMZN still lagging, SPY is getting more of the volume it needs to break out… but the whole next 3 points are going to be extremely hard to cross without some sort of consolidation/reversal pattern… I would not be buying here.. i’d wait for a pull back… might be a fakeout..
12:22pm
Smelling like a bit of a reversal here… i’m looking at weakness in the tech sector… we’ll see where this goes… but this is sorta the levels we are hitting up against strong resistance.
12:06pm
AMZN Daily… showing H&S formation around these levels:
12:01pm
Market is still not breaking it’s resistance line here… this starts to vow well for the bears…
11:41am
Seeing some consolidation here… the market will find strong support in the 91.40-91.50.. a break of that level will shove markets back dramatically but until then you should assume that that level is support and you can go long there with a stop below. Here is 30 SPY minute:
11:32am
Financials and the Market (SPY) have been going up but the volume is starting to dry up.. it looks like a tired top can be forming if in the next 10-20 minutes we don’t get either consolidation on low volume or a strong push higher on strong volume.
11:11am
It looks a little like a bull flag for the last 20 minutes after we hit the 92.70 level.
11:00am
XLF hitting at 12$ level this is a new short term high, BUT that level also coincides with the 200 and 20 SMA DAILY!!! Might want to short here? Stop above?
10:53am
We have reached the 92.70 level on the SPY.. some strong resistance will be in place. I want to note that AAPL and AMZN are weak to me.. and that I have taken on some short positions for those names.
10:30am
We are at the 923-925 level… this is the level you have to watch for strong resistance (daily and hourly), you should also watch for resistance at 928, and 931. 930-931 is the ultimate bear market trendline.
10:18am
H&S on the SPY broke.. now more like a double top potential formation… RIFIN could still have a H&S formation.
10:10am
Strong upward close to the 10 am candle, oil demand fell about 6% year over year. H&S 92.10 on the SPY for the right shoulder, if broken through we could continue moving higher..
10:07am
SKF inverse financials could be showing a head and shoulders with the right shoulder to form at 42.60 ish… be careful.
9:59am
AAPL fills the gap 3 minutes ago and finds some support moving higher… 10 AM reversal time is here.. is the small pop before reversal time a forecast for more losses?
9:50am
We could be getting a head and shoulders formation on the 1 minute or 5 minute. The left shoulder being friday at 92.00, the head having a double top formation around the 92.20 level and we might be buildling the righ shoulder soon. Financials are weak today, dollar is stronger.
9:33am
Dollar reversed from negative to positive favoring a possible reversal in the equity markets.
9:26am
I would really like to get a chance to short the SPY at the 92.70-80 level if possible.
8:42am
Futures are up around the equivalent 923 SPX level… I did say a pop early morning was possible, but a sell later on today was what I called for… lets see if that comes to fruition.
7:48pm(sunday)
These are the key levels on the daily that we have to watch out for in this short 4 day trading week. I expect volume to be strong surrounding the event heavy times, but then very light otherwise… Very unusual end to the month.
Since 10:35 this morning the S&P futures have traded in a very tight range. Watch it when they break out….I think the breakout will be fast and furious
CAC and DAX gained over 2% . we are up 1% here. GS upgraded LLOYD’s and maybe LLOYD’s will return the favour in 15 minutes
—- 2% GAIN in SP500 WOULD GIVE US 936 —– and then i quit until Thursday.
EUR/USD has been range bound during this same period that the spx has been range bound. The EUR/USD is near the top of that range. While it hasn’t been tracking as well as it has in the past, if it turns down from the top of this range the markets should also turn down.
A final channel kiss goodbye like last year:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2wedz0z.jpg
I don’t think it breaks out. Maybe a throwover like on June 10th which got quickly reveresed.
Nice. I’m hoping we got our right shoulder that many traders called for.
AAPL RIMM lookin toasty
Took a little off the table.
———– OIL ———— $73 TO $66.50 = $6.50 $70.53 is the 62% retracement.
id like to see it below $69.75 but it must close below $70.53 today for me to hold position.
1 month chart. needs to dip really soon, or else it’s going to be bad for the shorts for the short term…
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-16
926.5 needs to break solidly on the 5 minute/1 month.
last week i sez that things look bad for the shorts short term and this is why im trading thin. everyone having fun yet? i didnt expect much upside. in fact, this is my ceiling. but, if you are in puts your positions will corrode.
im ready to add to the FAZ i bought at $4.62 but im not trigger happy.
i say hold on a bit.
this area is still REALLY dangerous.
it’s starting to look more bullish. 930s is the real place to watch, if we break 930, and especially 932, then we’re looking at 944 coming up, then possibly a double top at the previous peak.
banks are doing well. WFC well above 200ma and 50ma.
922.87 might be a good place to drop to. that fib hasn’t gotten much play at all and should get a little something. i say 922.8 before anything else happens.
there’s one bar.
This doesn’t look good? Getting squeezed pretty hard right here. Volume is pitiful.
I guess what I’m saying is it’s to obvious…….
the last FAZ candle is showing more interest. something is going to happen in the next 10 mins imo. either that or im going for a nap.
FAZ reached target for H&S @ 4.6 …
Sorry – have been away the last week on work .. .catching up
$RUT is down .5%
Hmmm …
AAPL leading lower. 142 could be a resting place for a while.
AAPL140 puts +25% in 90 min. Took more $$$$$ off
Those Bidu puts i posted this morning are 4.00 now from 2.90
Qs are back down tothe VWAP.
got puts at 925.7
spy july.
Big oil at Xroads…look out below
im in……… and using hope as my main weapon
it has violated my count $70.53 but only if it closes here.
———- 925 to 927 area ——— this is no pin-point resistance band. this resistance area from the past is meeting our trendline of the bear market soon. maybe we just hang out in this range. it is a trading band that many of us are familiar with.
2 handle on C
ES 921.50 was S, now R? VIX needs to poke above 25.80, yes?
backtested fib.
hopefully i’ll see that 922.8 now.
hope you are right. there is no interest in the market for either side of the trade.
i agree there’s generally no clear direction.
just basing this on general market movement history and the trend line that’s held so far.
so far the market has been very uneventful…
as of late this is typical. one big move one way or the other and then nothing. you have two minutes to guess right
SOUTH!
looks like it’s just going east…
haha
im looking for a flat day tomorrow +30 to -30
backtest of 50ma at 926.3
——— PROGRAM TRADING ——— ive heard and read about program trading gripping this market to the tune of some 41% of the trade. as more and more people like me take lighter positions this amount should continue to rise. a select few are in control of this beast and ive heard that is some paired trade with some ETFs and futures. im sure we will learn more as more is uncovered. but this kind of control over the market for arbitrage trades is scary.
41% holy shit. That is excessive. Wow.
last month it was around 30% so it is up almost 50%. it must be some lucrative trade that is making the rounds. once too many take the same path…… look out! going to be a train wreck. of course im not 100% certain. it is just something that keeps popping up and who knows what is going on.
Richard, where are you getting these numbers?
What is surprising about that?
Any takers for APOL before earnings?
————- CMG ———– this HS pattern may just be beginning to crack. wishful thinking?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cmg
Looking like market is gearing up for sell off. VXX starting to rise, SPY still completing a bear flag and about to bump up against H&S neckline as resistance. I think SPY 92.65 is good place to go short. If it breaks through with good volume, then was just another fakeout.
FAZ is breaking out LOL> $4.63
it’s go time.
4 hours in a 5 cent range and $4.63 seems like a big deal
wow, 92.65 was tough resistance. SPY has been trading in a nice downward channel since 12:30 high…at the top of the channel now, will see…
im going to CA-PUT-ULATE soon.
im lauging inside but im crying looking at my account in the negative today. are people really paying $115 a share for PCLN who pays no dividend and airlines hurting so bad they are cancelling plane orders through 2014. are people really paying $15 share for PALM because the company has lost money for years and is projected to lose more despite their new phone. youd think they just invented the cell phone for the shares to go from $1.50 to $16. how can you not go crazy
——— SHLD ———- have 100 shares left. if it holds $67.50 im done with it.
what a waste of a day…
AMEN
why?
You could have had a nice scalp going long at the lows today.
SPY crossed over the trendline OUT OF THE DESCENDING CHANNEL on the 2 year chart (May 19, Sept 02 highs) with authority. SPY is catching its breath. Another consolidation before its moves higher perhaps. I mean Friday looked boring, but it hit the HOD at 2:45. The upper trendline is at about 92.25 now. On the daily chart that may not look very exciting, but on the 2 year chart, it can be pretty significant.
Your trendline is off. It’s at 93.39.
we’re rigth at the 50ma….
———– OIL ———— currently im at a loss of 1.6% …….. oil typically does nothing in last hr.
Richard – I was reading somewhere that oil generally tends to rise before a holiday weekend … so that they can get the most out of motorists driving …. just something to keep in mind …
is the world not evil Anjali.
Yes it is … and we should play it based on that to make the $$$ – otherwise we get hurt … was thinking of you when I read it …
—- LOOK AT THE MAX PAIN CHART OF FAZ —- they can clean up even if FAZ=$0.25
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain-CBOE.php —— bit bullish eh!
my stop is $4.48 on FAZ. if it dont make it there maybe i add on. but im thinking ill just wait and see where FAZ is at for the end of the week.
hitting trend line and top of BB.
if it breaks north of here, watch out..
SPY broke out of the descending channel on the 2 year chart as carefully as I can tell. If you think its above 93, I’d like to see your chart. It’s not easy to chart accurately on a 2 year chart.
2 year SPY chart:
http://bit.ly/7PnoL
3 day SPY chart more close up:
http://bit.ly/JcSZB
shows that the upper trendline of the descending bear market channel is currently at 92.24 and will close at 4:00 at about 92.22.
According to BigWet’s chart, we broke the triple nut this morning, or at least one of the nuts. Or maybe his nuts are DOW log nuts.
What is a “triple nut”?
Actually, never mind on that.
could just be a double top? volume to downside on the 1-minute is much stronger than upside…thoughts?
You have to use the close of the 2 candles – the one in May and the one in August.
At least that’s how the pros draw them, and they trade accordingly
——– IF YOU HAVE THE BALLS TO GO LONG THIS MARKET —- KUDOS TO YOU …….. but i dont care if we break a quadruple nut. ill just sit out like i did from 2006 to 2007
at this time thier is simply no “safe” side of the trade but im more comfortable short until the nuts break.
I opened two long positions today (URE @ 3.40 and XLF @ 12.00). I already had positions in XLP, XLV, and TBT coming into the day. I got stopped out of my DXD. I have a buy order in for SCO at 16.00 but I don’t think it will hit.
———- LATE DAY ACTION ———- usuallly, if a move like this is going to stick it comes with under 15 minutes to the close. if we move too early, it is usually a flush out and we begin selling off with 15 minutes to the close. so hang tough. this is an early final hour move and for that reason i do not believe we close on the highs. im not adding to any bets.
BOUGHT MORE FAZ $4.58 ———- couldn’t stop myself
———- whoa ———- look at the ask $4.58 ……. yikers.
Idan – thoughts on the VXX and either holding/getting out at these levels?
I still like VXX.. we are here during the summer and i do expect a pull back in the markets.. that should coincide with a rise sharp incline in the VIX.
Thanks. Everything is certainly pointing to a market selloff tomorrow/wednesday, but the huge volume to the downside on the VXX the past week is making me a little skeptical.
Also, how low could the VXX go in your opinion before leveling off?
come onnnnnn spy puts!!
Bears on the field.
Qs VWAP busted.
The ones who ran it up EOQ will need to start taking profits, and there will be a mad rush to get out.
well EOQ officially ends tomorrow..right
Yes, but knowing a wave a selling is coming will prompt some fund managers to sell ahead of it to get the best price. That could be happening as we speak and heavier Tuesday.
hope yer right. my experience for final hour… early move in the hour up.. late move lower… the last 15minutes will say if im right or wrong. added to FAZ
Crap. I was planning on Adding more FAZ tomorrow around 4.50
———— EOQ ———— buying to make settlement occurred before Thursday i believe. this is for those who which to pad statements with stocks that moved hard this last quarter. as for the sell side of this trade…… i have no idea on settlement.
FINALLY!!!
that 925.09 area is holding like a beast…
that’s a bull sign…
926.5 break. EVEN BIGGER bull sign…
bull flag formation intact as well…
Agree.. Bull Flag could take us to 960+.. just like the flag formation from (May-June)..
————- FAZ ———— volume coming in… nothing bullish for FAZ on this chart.
SUPPORTED ——- amazing on that kind of volume. hardly budged an inch.
21 MILLION SHARES IN the final 15minutes. hmmmmmmmmm. many candles today were one tenth this volume. buyers are there for FAZ and waiting for people to get flushed out. im not sure what to make of this. was this a manipulated flush out of 3X shares into the hands of bigger players?
———- NOBODY SELLING THIS MARKET ——— many holders of equities must believe that Governements will save the markets. i cant see any other good reason to hold.
i’m going to take a risk and hold spy puts into tomorrow.
i don’t buy this rise…
would be better if a drop happened first, even if it did rise.
even if it rises, we’d see a stop in the 930s, highest 932. worth the risk.
me too. i only took off some of my SHLD short. holding most positions and added to FAZ. that late day push in the SPX pushed a ton of shares from one hand to another in FAZ and that is very interesting to say the least. what are the internal dynamics of the market here? what is the arbitrage play we are hearing about that program traders are after? i read it involves ETF. could they be rallying GS and acquiring FAZ………. nothing ive read gives any hint as to what ETF. hopefully this is exposed soon so my brain can make sense of this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDcvjxHc42I
Looks like some fund managers are defending the price while others sell into it.
im not sure if we are going to figure this out but something very big is going on and im thinking it involves very LARGE POSITIONS the give low percentage gains with little risk. FAZ shares up to $4.59 were scooped right after the close.
Bought FAS for tomorrow.
I agree with others that fund managers will try to ride this up for the end of quarter.
Technical Analysis wise, we did end over 127… but barely…. is this bullish or bearish? I guess it’s a crap shoot.
Now that I think about it, it would’ve probably been healthier for me to stay out of the market for tomorrow.
A Special Closing Message For Bears
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/06/29/a-special-closing-message-for-bears/
hilarious!
make sure you watch this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svC_yqKPKds&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fibankcoin%2Ecom%2Fflyblog%2F2009%2F06%2F29%2Fa%2Dspecial%2Dclosing%2Dmessage%2Dfor%2Dbears%2F&feature=player_embedded
Wednesday Morning Message for Bulls:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Horse_penis.jpg
What’s the point dude?
Wednesday the point will be seen, heard and FELT.
you’re ridiculous
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/06/six-questions-worth-asking-at-end-of.html
I was out the last hour. All positions held into tomorrow. Kicked butt on RIMM AAPL. Not so good on UNG USO. Such is life. Tomorrow is another day, Scarlett.
——— THIS WEEK FOR THE CONSUMER ———-
two people i know re-fied thier homes. holy crap.
one of them has now $450,000 mortgage on thier abode and they took this extra chunk-o-change at a rate locked for 5 years. the reason for padding thier mortgage is he is concerned for his job this winter. interesting, get more debt if you are worried you will be out of work and not able to pay your debts
the other person sold thier home and upgraded to a home price at over $1,000,000 and took the extra cash to buy a Mercedes. she took a 1.75% rate. did not know they existed but it is a floating rate and moves with the bond markets. she told me they decided to go for it because rates are so low and thier business has started to pick up again. they are developers.
these two that i know of make for an interesting future. we are far from out of the credit mess if they are handing out ooodles of credit to those with good credit. siiiiigh. scary stuff.
You have made the exact point that needs to be made. The financial system is resorting to the exact same lending practices prior to the crash. Sure, they MAY be slightly more selective about who can borrow, but floating rates and 125% debt to equity for first time buyers will bring the market back.
It’s like the government/Fed have decided that the only course left to steer is from one bubble/crash to the next bubble/crash to the next, over and over. The idea of a sustainable, healthy and growing economy seems antiquated. I guess that we are doomed to to go back up and (most assuredly) back down.
I would like to hear that safeguards have been put in place to prevent what I heard on CNBC’s “House of Cards” special documentary they did. No proof of income required. A factory worker making only $900 a week for instance able to be approved for a home worth over $500,000 and have it fully furnished too. Someone at the bank somewhere in the process putting down estimated income several times higher than actual and then reselling it to wall street. Former pizza delivery guys making $20K a month getting involved in the mortgage selling or closing process making that much with no training or certification. Any decent bank automatically put out of the market if they don’t go along with all the other easy money lending. To me it sounds like very little to no regulation or oversight. I heard just requiring proof of income could have put a stop to all of it. I think we’re doomed to go from boom to bust from little oversight and everything goes to very strict controls that are a burden on everyone.