Hey guys, in the last 3 days I have been RIGHT ON THE MONEY, not only for the sell offs but also for the little upswings! All these calls have helped my short term part of the portfolio rise over 20%!!! IN just 3 days!!
I have been quite busy today, and I will be flying out everywhere over the next week and a half, so I’ll be pretty busy then, but i’ll be blogging from time to time on www.stocktock.com. In this video I talk about what I think will happen in the markets over the next few days. Tomorrow, we might see the start of a small upward action, which could eventually take us to the 920-925 level on the SPX. As we know, the 923 level on the SPX has been strong resistance 3 weeks ago, and strong support as well, well now we might want to retest it as resistance once more, before we fall down to the 880 level. I think you should use that opportunity to buy your JULY SPY PUT OPTIONS. I think the 880 level will probably hold for the first few hits, as it is really the border that separates the bullishness and the bearishness on the daily chart. I expect us to form a H&S on the daily as we bounce forming a right shoulder. The break will yield a huge sell off, with panic, that should help the VIX see high 40s, we could start seeing 3-5 % move days from then on. I also talk about some of the trades I made early today, and yesterday, and I look at teh GS, XLF and PRGN chart!
If you like the dry bulk business, Navios Maritime (NM) and Diana Shipping (DSX) might be better plays.
Check out this one year comparative graph for relative performance of PRGN, NM and DSX.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PRGN#chart2:symbol=prgn;range=1y;compare=dsx+nm;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Also other shippers to consider are GNK and DAC. They all had similar performance today in that they exceeded the lower Bollinger band and most likely are due for a rebound.
Forgot to mention that both NM and DSX have superior fundamentals than PRGN and that they are both trading above 200-day moving average (they just bounced off it today) while PRGN is below its 200-day moving average.
SEA is a great long term play.
If you look at the index you are referring to, then NM (Navios Maritime) is its largest holding (%-wise):
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=SEA
IMHO, individual companies are far more agile than the overall index.
I agree, unless you just want exposure to the industry. For example I never buy gld or gdx. Shippers are not my thing but I know gold pretty well.
I like IAG and AUY the last couple of days. They hit the low Bollinger and are on the upswing. Perhaps a quick trade for both. I subscribe to Frank Barbera’s Gols Stock newsletter and he said today that he believes the market is headed generally lower for the next three weeks and that gold stocks will follow lower in sympathy. He gives me the impression that he will jump big in gold by mid July.
Ooops…I meant Gold Stock newsletter.
3min:
In case you are interested this is what the Gold Stock Technician said in today’s bulletin re: stock market:
In this report, we try to give subscribers a better sense of what may lie ahead for the US Stock Market using Elliott Wave Theory. To be sure, Elliott Theory should never be a the predominant analytical focus as more often then not, the wave count is clearest after the fact. In our work, we place an 80% emphasis on the major areas of Price Analysis, Breadth, Momentum, Volume and Sentiment, with Elliott Theory as an adjunct, but not the whole enchilada. Nevertheless, there are times when the Elliott view can help an investor assess his risk, and the kind of potential that a given market may hold. As we presently see it, the Wave Count shown in the chart below, is likely to be a reasonably good proxy for where the stock market resides within the current bear cycle. To that end, a major bear market impulse wave completed at the March 2009 lows and has now given way to what should be an A-B-C counter trend, bear market rally. Over the last few days, Intermediate Wave A of the bear market rally has peaked, and is now in the process of yielding to Intermediate Wave B down. Wave B should retrace to at least the 850 area, and could more likely, retrace down to the low 800 area over the next 5 to 7 weeks. Thereafter, a second medium term advance, Wave C should lift prices to a slightly higher high.
Above: Two very similar Wave Counts with essentially the same message. In the top count, our preferred count, the prior bear cycle from 1560 on the SPX to 670 was a large declining Three Wave affair, bottoming Wave {A} at the March lows. Below: A similar count that chooses to label things more as a five, in our view, a bit of an awkward five, but coming to more or less the same final conclusion, that a major impulse wave bottomed in March of this year. Under both of these counts, the rally since March is Wave A of an upward three step advance, an upward A-B-C countrend move.
On the top of the next page, we show another very similar Elliott count that has slightly different wave labeling, but on a bottom line basis conveys the same message. Below that chart, we show our hypothetical idealized view of what the C Wave higher could look like, arriving at the conclusion that prices should peak on the S&P in the 1000 to 1100 zone abit later this year. Assuming a summer “B-Wave” low of 835, and a fall peak of 1065 to be conservative, there remains an additional 27% opportunity this year in the stock market, which is good news for investors looking to book some overdue gains.
I think Gold will see 800 before it breaks 1,000. There is no reason not for Gold to break 1,000 (maybe touch it, but not be break).
Idan where are you going?
I have tons of business related meetings… in New York and in NC – Duke related stuff.. and then i’m doing financial work for my friend’s tech company in california.
TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW OF THESE PICKS WE HAVE SEEN ………. short term trading
is certainly the only way to go. my old style of swinging week to week is out the window
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?seed
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?feed
TAKE A LOOK AT THE PICK I POSTED JUNE 5TH…… ive been so focussed winging the JUN PUTS that ive largely ignored my portfolio of longer term plays:
THEN —– http://social.stocktock.com/photo/tcb_daily_jun4-1
NOW —— http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tcb
Feed has turned into a pump and dump…IMO.
Is anyone still in the P1 camp, just starting E down?