2:05pm
I am out for today, and tomorrow I’ll be gone since i’m travelling. But hope you guys had a good day of trading, all of my trades today were profitable, so if you followed along you should be up more than 2-3% today.
1:44pm
I went short AAPL right around the 137.65 level… my stops lie above descending channel resistance. Will add some more at 20 SMA 10 minute at 137.77.
1:24pm
SRS Resistance levels to watch: 22.00, and 22.40, $26 is the biggest resistance, where we might form an inverse H&S (longer term) and then fall. SPY after 91.65 support level we have support of 90.75.
1:09pm
With AAPL breaking under 138.50 and retesting the support as resistance, we are definetly going lower. The TRADE I think you should be making is, going short at around 137.40-138, and then sell some of those puts at 130 for 0.28 a contract (if you have the money to do that).
1:03pm
AAPL descending channel works perfect, look at 10 minute:
12:59pm
AAPL has a H&S formation on it.. but it is a little too obvious, we might need a small fake-out up before breaking down again.
12:42pm
91.65 is the next level of the SUPPORT in the SPY or 915 on the SPX… this volume that we are getting here is indicative of a new trend… welcome to Wave B P2 or Wave 5 of P1..
12:29pm
I got stopped out of GS with a 0.3% profit… the SPY has broken the 92.80 level and is retesting it as resistance now.. it could still potentially break higher here (there is a 1 minute inverse H&S on the SPY). , but 92.80 level has become much weaker now because this is the third time we are hitting it.
12:20pm
The GS inverse H&S… I am still short of GS but have moved my stops down, 144.40 will probably be the potential reversal. If this inverse H&S breaks down, then we know we are in a bearish turn around. The neckline is at 146, 10 minute:
11:58am
You can now raise your stops to a profitable position. Great trades today guys! SPY now in negative territory.
11:53am
Potentially nice set up for SKF… go long 41.60 (i bought in), stop 41.50.. and see if it runs..
11:43am
If you guys went short with me on GS, you should now lower your STOP to a winning position.
11:37am
I went short GS at 145.70 with a stop at 146.20… a H&S on the 1 minute has developed my ultimate goal is to reach 144.50-60.
11:29am
GS is forming a pretty neat INVERSE H&S on the 10 minute scale, 144.40 will be incredibly strong support to break and potentially where the right shoulder will be.
11:27am
SPY support levels to watch out for as we fail to break 93.30:
1. 92.93 10 minute SPY 20 SMA.
2. 92.80 The crucial level to break
3. 92.40 yesterdays lows
If we break 92.40 don’t short.. wait for a bull flag and then short it.. I think the 92.40-92.80 that served as support will serve as resistance on the 10 minute candle scale atleast once before we continue lower.
11:21am
I like FAZ if you can get it at 4.60 with a stop under 4.55
11:16am
Tough time breaking that 93.30 level that i said was potential reversal… financials though are finally in the green and that could help the market push higher. You want to see the financials break through their 50 SMA 10 minute before you jump aboard.
10:55am
If this candle ends slightly up low volume we dump down, if this candle can break the bar of the previous candle we could shoot up (39.15 ish).
10:34am
Taking profits on half my HDB and moving stops to profitable positions.
10:18am
No buyers out there.. my HDB short is looking pretty here.
92.80 is the first level of support and is incredibly strong (also coinsides with 20 SMA 10 min), the next level is yesterdays lows at 92.40, and if we break that we will fall quite drastically to 915 on the SPX.
10:11am
The buying hass to come in the next 20 minutes or else the selling will take over..
10:07am
I got stopped out of my GS short at 144.60 with a 2% gain… this could mean that we are in deed moving higher here.. although it’s too early to tell. I would really like to see the SPY above 93.80 before we assume that we are moving to new highs. SRS is still relatively strong here.
9:42am
Levels where the market could reverse downwards on the SPY are: 93.30, 93.60 and then if we rally above 93.80 I will have to turn bullish again.
9:37am
Levels to go long SRS if you wish: 19.40, 19.20, and 18.75. . Short levesl are 19.62 (ascending resistance from prior 3 days, and 19.75 (gap fill). ( I got stopped of my SSO with a small 0.4% profit)
9:30am
Short HDB at 105.10 with a stop at 105.65.
9:20am
Some more horrible news from industrial production. I will put a stop on SSO at 26.59 and let it run and move the stop higher as it goes until we reverse lower.
8:32am
Housing Starts: Better than Expected Up May 17.2%, Permits up 4%, though there were some downward revisions to the previous month.
PPI: Still Deflationary – 0.1% CORE, +0.2% total.
8:17am
I bought some SSO late in yesterdays trade, if we open a little higher, I will look to cover that SSO which is hedging my july SPY puts.. I expect further weakness either later today or tomorrow..
Today we will be looking at a lot of important things before market open (KEEP IN MIND: this is option expiration week!):
1. Housing Starts 8.30 am
2. PPI number at 8.30 am
3.. Industrial Production Numbers at 9.15 am
The first two have a lot of weight on this market and will pretty much set the tone for a higher or lower open. As of now, the futures remain flat, and the oil is extending it’s losses by another 0.5%. Gold is bouncing by about 0.5% (good thing i sold my DZZ yesterday), but the dollar is getting slightly stronger here against the euro (nothing significant). The market seems to be at a wait until we start getting ready for these numbers to show up. Here’s a Chart of the 30 minute SPY for you guys to look at tomorrow:
Say it ain’t so… a true selloff at the end of the day with no stick save?
maybe we’ll have a 3PM sell program from now on!
We have seen the pump when all those new shares, and presumably quite a few shorts, were sold to suckers at prices kept artificially high with OUR money. The bullish percentage looks nearly maxed-out and double-toppish:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX
Maybe now, with the sheeple sucked in and thinking that bear-market rallies go straight up forever, comes the dump . . .
next
Ok….holding FAS and FDX Puts over. Gone all Red Team
SWEET!!!
Dow sub 8500 is uberbear disco time.
Close enuf. Bought a bunch of FAZ yesterday @ 4.67. Average now 9.30.
Off to have a disco. Check out zerohedge blog today for a decent dose of bear pie/logical thoughts.
Ok! GREAT day. Loved the BBY and X plays. Onward. 93 in Miami today. Better have two martinis. Later!
Who was it who said a while ago, a GROUP BEAR HUG?
mmmmm hug…
It looks like they’re getting ready to trapdoor the public again. The next few weeks may contain some interesting events.
http://i43.tinypic.com/2iu6b0o.jpg 60 min could pop up,,,then I re-enter my bearness
935-940?
we’ll know tomorrow
If we gap down 5 pts, I’d be hesitant to stay Long.
908.42 is 5% off the Highs. There are plenty of folks w/IRA type money who aren’t going to put up with anymore crap out of the Fed, the Politicians, and Wall Street crime gang. Think about it… That’s just 3 pts. away, on a Close.
IBD says ’7% and out’. I’d think even their tolerance level for shenanigans is ‘tested’ by now. If any morning bounce up to 918-919 is retested then it must hold. If it fails then hope 908 or slightly lower doesn’t hit/close EOD.
890 would be 7% off Highs. You can really expect a slaughter if that hits, imo. Heck, what do I know. Maybe this is ‘great valuation/pe/ALL IS WELL etc time’. and time to Buy! Somehow I’m not getting that ‘feeling’ tho… Neither am I putting my money in it.
Looks pretty bearish already:
http://i39.tinypic.com/15fndhz.png
Live chart (requires subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=3&g=0&id=p22718858359&listNum=2&a=170973550
Uner, that is today’s Daytrade short, and my 60 min chart is gonna be TeamAm’s and my bounce tomorrow.
The 200d MA on the SPX is at roughly 908. There is no way that we break that the first time.
Up we go to 927-930. I’d be we get there with 2 up days in a row, and then on Friday it will sell off to roughly 910 again.
I think you are right, TeamAm. The 200 Day m/a is 907.91, so that might be a good Long bounce up in the morning. No way will this fail the first test.
DanEric lays it out really well with a couple options on his ‘E.W. Update’.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ see this:”Here is what I am thinking in my 2 basic counts:”
The S&P500 has been above the 200 Day M/A for the past 10 days. It crossed at 925 and went as high as 956 or roughly 30 points above the cross.
With the 50 M/A coming up fast, the only way to avoid a golden cross would be for the S&P to drop a good 30 points and stay down there for a week.
880 is a major support line and where the fight will be.
A drop below 880 would kill the idea this is a new bull market..
Even it it bounces off 880 we would be potentially creating a major head and shoulder pattern going back 10 days.
This week is going to be interesting at least..
Anyone care to look at the EUR/JPY Daily!
http://i41.tinypic.com/o5b1pl.gif
Live chart (must select options shown on static chart image above):
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/eurjpy.php
I have the charts it was just the tale it is telling. Closed below the 20ma. It’s been awhile. One more bearish sign.
WHOS alll these mysterious put buyyers ??!?!?! They really get me excited
2$ puts Oct Nymex nat gas futures, 14$ Oct puts UNG, puts in bear stearns before the big collapse and now puts in vix
Check
Yesterday there is enormous chatter coming
out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange over a trader
putting on a rather large $850k in premium for a July VIX
call spread – which implies a rather “large” market swan
dive over the coming 41-days. The trader bought 20,000
of the July 45 calls and sold the July 55 calls for a “net”
42.5 cents – this means the VIX must be at 45.42 before
this trader earns even one cent on the trade. Some certainly
seems to be sure that a larger decline is directly ahead –
and very sharp one at that given the VIX is only trading at
30 at the present time. The last time the VIX was at 45 was
the week of March 27th…when the S&P was in the low-
800’s.
Puts in Vix? Either you worded that wrong or you mistook what they were saying. The bet placed is a bullish call spread on vix. A rather large bet I might add
There was a massive amount of call buyers in VIX today. 40′s and 50′s in July August. I wouldn’t be betting any $$$$ on anything short VIX. Just MVHO
Sorry, I meant calls.
Max Pain has been at $90 on the SPY for the past several weeks and although I never thought we could see $90 on the SPY in the month of June, it looks like it is heading there for OpEx Friday. Remember this week is Quadruple Witching.
Trade carefully.
I thought max pan is $83, no?
Another view; VIX
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Of course many of us have talked about vix returning to 45 or 50 once it broke out of the bullish wedge, which the vix did. This trader just put on a trade (albeit rather large if true) that matches the target many of us have talked about from a technical perspective. This trade is actually a very good one for a vertical call spread. You buy your target and sell a strike or two beyond that target to lower your cost basis. The object is for your calls to make money and the calls you sold short to expire worthless.
To that point, whomever wrote this write up is also wrong that he can’t make money unless vix is greater then 45. Vix can easily reach 40, the trader closes the long calls for a profit and the short side expires worthless, also for a profit. Just because someone places a trade does not mean they will just let it sit there and let it all expire.
Idan, Can you put up a video tonite?
Copied from a guy on the soh who copied from the below listed website
———–
“The truth of the tape is as follows: As discussed last Thursday evening, the Thursday session upthrust was a bearish tell shifting the conditional odds toward termination of a length 2-week congestion. On Monday, the near-term bias turned down transferring the potential termination into an actual termination; thereby creating a hand-off to near-term bears who are now in control of the order flow. However, that control is constrained by the swing freedom defined by an alternate and the next higher timeframe bidline at S7 representing weekly swing buyers who can be expected to attempt to regain control by defending the intermediate trend at S7.
The current momentum is obviously to the downside. However, weekly buyers will regain control in the days ahead by completely absorbing the sell-side order flow at S7 creating the conditions for a rotation back up to D12 or T9; or weekly buyers will not be able to defend S7 and the week’s range can easily extend down to T5.
If the intermediate trend does turn down, the corrective wave that has been in place since the March low will be completed. Due to the proximity of weekly bids at S7, the Wednesday session is pivotal. Expect potential buyers to assess the early intraday price action for a shift in the conditional odds favoring either rejection or acceptance and then either initiate new buying and short-covering or withdraw bids and stand aside.
Intraday swings reverse at D-Levels:
D18 = 95.70 [948.60]
D16 = 95.00 [944.40]
D14 = 93.80 [929.10]
D12 = 93.00 [922.20]
D11 = 92.40 [919.30]
1-3 Day swings reverse at T-Levels:
T9 = 94.35 [935.30]
T5 = 90.30 [895.30]
Intermediate swings reverse at S-Levels:
S7 = 91.40 [898.75]
http://www.axis-analytics.com/
Hi Idan,
Can you explain how you got the $93.30 as a potential top, and $91.65 and $90.75 as potential support levels?
Thanks,
Darryl