3:54pm
As we close about 923.. there is still a possibility of us gapping up a little higher tomorrow to levels of 93.30 on the SPY before we head back down. I bought some SSO a few minutes ago to hedge myself for a possible bounce before we continue our way lower. Since 923 has not broken though, we are still uncertain of where this market will go, but you have to give bears the benefit of the doubt.
2:52pm
Citigroup could be pushing lower in the next few weeks as a strong ascending support has broken over the last few days of trading:
2:17pm
I have taken profits on my DZZ trade from a week ago… this was a nice 4.5-5% profit for this trade. It is hitting up against the 21.40 resistance, I think you can buy it on a little bit of a pull back.
1:58pm
I like AMZN short at around 82.10 (that’s where I went short)… it seems to be consolidating for a potential fall in the upcoming days.. make sure you put a stop somwhere in the 82.40s.
30 minute AMZN chart:
1:46pm
VIX today shoved through important resistance and now is headed higher (wedge formation resistance broke!)
1:42pm
GS rose to retest the 144.40 level yet again as resistance, and ever since rolled over… the SPY now sits below 92.80, if we can close under here this maybe the start of the B wave of the Primary 2, or the 5th wave of P1. I really like shorting the overbought tech here because i think it could suffer greatly from the inflated prices on hopes of a recovery.
12:01pm
The move higher here is a on lower volume, but if it can be sustained we might get a small inverse H&S on the 10 minute:
11:53am
hitting up against the 923 SPX level for a 3rd time, this time it might break.. guys we are in a potential reversal day, the volume is definetly there! and I think you should start looking at shorting Real Estate and Financials. Also short Overpriced tech, I.e. AMZN, AAPL.
11:18am
We are testing 92.80 on the SPY for a second time! The dollar is strengthening dramatically, gold has broken it’s head and shoulders and will be confirming it today on a daily chart. These are classic signs of a reversal.. if this market can now break 923, we will be heading much lower. Next support level is at 914.5-915.
10:43am
A nice little intraday trade, is taking potentially a long here with a stop underneath and unloading at 93.20.
10:38am
GS is breaking down to new lows here and is only going to find support around 142.70, and then strong support at 141 ish for a head and shoulders pattern to form on a 30 minute. The SPX is following GS down and is getting really close to testing that strong 923 Support. Take Profits at that level, there is no way we can shoot straight through it, it will take at least three tries.
9:51am
Manufacturing index fell by almost twice as bad as they expect it.. and we broke the 932-933 support very easily.. the next strong strong level of support is 92.80 on the SPY or 923-924 on the SPX. If we break this, we will confirm a new move lower (lower lows, lower highs), on strong volume. GS was the reason we were able to see a possible reversal coming and I suggest you keep looking at it! 144.40 is strong support, a break of that will shove it down to 141 ish.
7:44am
I might not be here for the open, but it looks like we are starting our decent today. Everything seems to be in-line with a sell off. We broke the 932-933 level in the futures and will have to look for the 929-930 as we open. Gold is 0.6% lower, oil is over 1.2% lower and the dollar is incredibly strong. These are signs as a full on reversal as long as this can persist at the open. Some pretty strong technical levels were broken this morning, and volume was definitely there.
10:11pm (sunday)
It is a little early to tell but futures are trading around 936 now , which means that the push higher that we had right at the end of the day above resistance is, in a way, insignificant. We will have to watch out for incredibly strong support at 932-933 tomorrow and resistance at 944 on the SPX. As of now, the dollar has gained some strength and as we know, this means the markets could fall as commodities sell off. Oil is down a little lower and Gold is falling slightly, extending it’s loses from friday. There will be a lot of data this week though, from housing to CPI and we will have to keep track very closely. What are your thoughts on Housing? Have we bottomed or not?
Screw it. Just didn’t want to be long anything so closed the rest of the MSFT .65 INTC .33
I’m encouraged by the fact that RIFIN and XLF are within pennies of their lows for the day.
VWAP has it capped.
GS dumped into the close. Interesting.
On huge volume, to boot.
Yeah Idan was mentioning how GS after it broke 144.40 is pretty much a sell until 141..
SSO touched $26.22 (21 day MA is $26.23) but lowest close on 15 minute was $26.25…
Jerks! I had my stop set at $26.22.. then it went up to $26.40+
—- TCB — this is one i posted a few weeks ago $11 target. not sure if anyone got on board but didnt notice it getting hammered today as im more focused on my JUN PUTS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tcb max pain is $12.50 JUN. i have $15 OCT puts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=phh this is another HS pattern i posted and doing well
It will be interesting to see if there is some follow-through tomorrow.
Im curious though, did anybody notice anything radically different about today versus any other solid red day that we have seen at earlier points in the move up from 667?
red team was always on top of black
every push was met with selling
if this is what you mean
We have had days like that during this rally. There was never any follow-through though.
yes, the market was way over max pain levels. zillions of stocks have HS patterns that point much lower. gazillions of stocks are above the upper BB. since the rally began from 667 ive not been able to find this many bearish charts. had a tough time last week choosing which ones to take. had to narrow down from hundreds of charts to get 9 picks. believe tomorrow we stall. my target for the week was 915 and we almost made that in one day. i underestimated?
We’ll see. I bought some SDS @ 55.00 today (which is my favorite vehicle for a longer term short play). I had some SCO already (buys at 18.00 and 16.00). I did not close any positions.
The main difference is the market never really showed any signs of recovering this afternoon beyond a couple of points.
You’re right about tomorrow being key. Unless it pushes past 930 on strong volume, I’m figuring it’s going to continue sliding lower slowly but surely.
But we’ll see.
Morris
What did you notice?
Well, I was out for most of the day (teaching summer courses – ugh) so I didn’t really notice anything other than we were down a good bit and we did not close on the lows of the day. That’s why I was asking if there was something different about today versus other red days we have had in this rally up from 667. On those days we had the same kinds of posts about how crucial levels were broken and how TA was confirming it to be the beginning of a new downtrend but all those posts were wrong (so the crucial levels and TA were wrong every time).
I’m not saying that this isn’t a significant day and maybe we are about to begin a big slide downward but I won’t believe it until I see some follow-through. When that happens, I’ll close my longs and get short with the rest of you bears!
You’re absolutely correct.
Plus, wasn’t the volume pretty low today? I’m showing around 185M on SPY versus a 10-day average volume of 246M. That doesn’t indicate to me that bulls were just running for the doors today.
oops, it was around 220M but still less than the 10-day average.
Richard, keep harping on PNC–have trendline at 41.37 with close below. Not knowing enough about HS, is this still in play? I expect some push up within this week with a final fall to your prediction (28 +/-). Should be good for FAZ as its charts are indicating. Your thoughts?