4:01pm
Holy crap my friends, this has been a wild ride, and if you went long during the day you got stopped out with a small loss, i was lucky enough to keep my longer term puts on and only play a small intraday trade long to get stopped out. My other intraday trades like shorting GS worked very well. With a close below 945, the bears managed to defend their territory really well. 954 was important resistance as well, and so tomorrow is going to be another crucial day as the momentum lies with the bears. Nonethless, the bulls have put in a new high.. and can easily break the 945 resistance yet again tomorrow, it can be looked at as a retest of this level as support now (even though there was one 20 minutes after the breakout) but sometimes a retest later down the road is required. Use small positions. Video will be out by 7:30-8pm.
3.56pm
GS to close blow the wedge formation for the first time 3 months! Incredible…!
3:40pm
Bottoming candle 10 min on GS right here, we have seen this happen before… when GS traded below the wedge and put in a bottoming candle and rallied… are we going to get a repeat?
3:33pm
Financials now joining in to GS weakness, as it breaks a 3 month wedge pattern. Now, we’ve seen it fake out below it before, we need a close below it to really confirm this breakdown. Rememeber, we are still trading above the resistance on the XLF, the resistance (now support) stands at 12.39. So a close at these levels is still bullish, the bears need to break us below 944 on the SPX.
3:29pm
Dollar is slowly strengthening here… there are tons of mixed signals.. but a sell off is very possible here. Don’t assume anything yet.
3:22pm
GS showing some intense weakness.. it is about to break it’s WEDGE support yet again!!
60 minute: If you believe we go higher, this is where you buy.
2:38pm
Did you guys hear JIM? man that guy is crazy.. hahahaha. BTW… things look bearish again, QQQQs got off their resistance, forming an H&S… be careful, keep positions small!
2:04pm
KEEP LOOK AT THE DOLLAR!!! If we get a reversal back down, it’ll come from strength from the dollar and weakness in commodities and finanicals.
1:41pm
The QQQQ channel works like a charm… we hit resistance and now are falling, yesterday when we sold off the sell off ended right when hit the QQQQ channel support (you have the QID channel, which is basically the same only inverse below)
1:26pm
QID 10 minute channel:
1:16pm
There is a possible topping candle on the S&P and the Qs, this is an interesting development.. You might see a retrace towards the 948 level before we rally foward again. I have to leave for a few hours but will be tracking the market and i’ll pop in every once in a while.
1:06pm
30 yr demand still relatively low but enough to help this market rally..it’s sorta like sell the rumor buy the news. If we can close above 950 we’re headed higher to 1000-1012.
1pm
Breakout right before 1 pm.. can we sustain this .. lets look at what the 30yr demand is at.
12:23pm
This whole 90 minutes of action can be viewed as possible consolidation for another move higher (bull flag per say) but it’s tough to know where exactly we’re going until we get a huge volume candle either up or down.
12:00pm
We are waiting for the 12 am new candle here… to see what’s going to happen in the markets. Both the bulls and the bears seem to be at a tie, but the bulls have the weak dollar to play on. SRS doing magnificently well too. Mixed feelings here before the 30 yr auction at 1pm.
11:37am
If you believe this market is going to rally, why not buy some CHKP which is about to break out… put a tight stop around 24.04 or so.. and then find another stock like SRS that’s about to break out if this market falls, with a tight stop.. and then you’re set for either side. Take a a look at the 60 minutes:
11:26am
Here’s my 60 minute UUP (dollar ETF) as you can see it broke through some relatively strong support, although it can still backtest as the volume is low… it doesn’t look good for the dollar, and this is the first time we are trading near the 950 on the SPX with weakness in the dollar. That could make this rally even stronger. The descending blue line will be support though.
11:22am
SRS still finding strength, if it managed to break 19.. it might go ahead and get a nice little shoot up.
11:20am
We actualy broke down the H&S only for a fakeout and things returned to rally mode here.. A break of 95.70 on the SPY would mean we’re going higher to test that 1010 level. The H&S though could still work so be careful from both sides. Keep positions small.
10:59am
UUP (dollar) getting a little stronger now, gold falling a little.
10:55am
Neckline of H&S forming on the 1 minute SPY or 5 minute if you’d like is at 95.04. Cancellation of pattern will come if we rally past 95.35.
10:45am
I just got back, but the rally here is relatively strong… The financials rallied above it’s resistance and already found it as support, that is a possibility for a continuation higher.. The dollar has substantially weakened since i last saw it at 8:40. Bond yields remain high though. This last candle is green but on low volume, you have to wait and see whether the bears can take us below the symmetric triangle resistance yet again or if it’s going to form strong support because there is a H&S on the ES 5 minute.
8:53am
With this sell off on strong volume from the retail and jobless claim numbers.. we are basically forming a very nice H&S formation with the A portion (right shoulder) have a double shoulder with strong volume, a break of 928 on the SPX, will basically give us a target of 900.
8:44am
Some early weakness in financials including GS.
8:35am
Dollar SKY ROCKETING… check out my DZZ trade (dbl short gold) that i bought at $20.32, 2 days ago . That should put more pressure on the market.
8:32am
Discretionary numbers if adjusted with inflation could be actually bad.
8:31am
601K initial jobless claims… a little better than expected. Retail sales, better than expected 0.5%+. Market initially shoved up.. all the way to 942.6 on the ES and then fell back down to 938. This is interesting market action
9:26pm (wednesday):
Anybody care to guess how the initial jobless claims will end up? Better than expected? Worse than expected? That’s something that we have to keep track of at 8:30am, also what are your guys’ thoughts on the 30 yr auction, I think that if the 10yr had a hard time finding demand, the 30yr will be even harder. That should weigh on the markets. In any case, today’s volume should start spiking up and we might choose a side finally. Here’s my 10 minute chart of the SPY for you to see.
a few hours ago i posted ……. i’ll laugh so hard if we go straight back to 940. im ready
So, remind me again… a close like this is good for the bulls or the bears? I’ve lost track.
Yep, it’s good for the bulls or the bears. You’re right.
Yeah… i wasn’t convinced with the bears on this close, tons of mixed signals.. i’ll take a while to look at 20+ charts and see what’s up
Idan, do you see a H&S on WFC? I believe WFC is in trouble.
dang, SRS…what a party out of that flag…too bad I thought the other way.
Wow that was quick. Looks like the top may be in.
OMG!
almost GRAVESTONE DOJI ON THE DAILY CANDLESTICK!
means DOWN
HA HA
UNREAL
“almost” a gravestone doji? So does that mean no clear direction in the markets? I’m shocked. LOL
Absolutely going to end up in the loony bin by the time P2 ends…
doji is a candlestick where open = close
gravestone doji is a candlestick where open = close = low; .
Thursday: open = low; close was slightly above open, but in AH it is very close to open.
You can still call it a gravestone doji.
It’s a “turning point”
“The Gravestone Doji represents the graves of those bulls that have died defending their territory.”
So if tomorrow is a down day, then that confirms it.
dump FXP at the wire.
Picked up AAPL at 139.80 at the wire.
Holding shorts CERN and VPRT
Shorted CHK at 24.59 and holding (resistance).
so so positive day.
Going to throw my computer across the room……since when do you step aside to let the bullies make the final call at the end of the day? Why do we research good stocks and bad stocks only to panic with 5mins to go? Getting annoyed with the hours of hard research only to have a nasty surprise. Still sitting mostly in cash but I shouldn’t be this worried about the bad guys moving the market……
[edited by moderator for language. Some members have small kids who read this site.]
tell us how you really feel!?
Staying well hedged is working for well me while we ride this “end of the road” out.
Wow amazing move at the last 10 mins!
When I saw 449 20 mins before closing, I was thinking of just taking the loss on all my puts and go long, I’m glad I practiced patience.
The fight of bulls vs bears in the 442-447.5 range continues! It has broken out into both sides, but now Friday is here and usually Friday ends on positive.
My guess is tomorrow will be one of those “down for the day, rocket up on the last 30 mins” type day.
I need sleep.. I mean 94#, not 44#. if S&P was 44#, that means that I and many others are millionaires.. and I probably have lost my job from the bad economy.
Positions into tomorrow:
Long Rimm 90/95 call spread cost .75
Long June 27.5 Vix call 1.2 cost
Short June 30 Vix Calls .60 cost
Long July 32.5 Vix Call 2.4 Cost
Will add to Rimm tomorrow – expecting further pullback in the markets to some extent in the morning. Will leave the July Vix alone and trade in and out of the June vix calls on large moves.
saw it coming…like i said, two major trend lines crossed, and we hit it like a hammer on the head and it tanked down…
gotta watch out for those areas…
plus SPY was outside the BB on the 60 min
So what’s next Oh Masterful Woo? Did we stop dead in our tracks for now or just gearing up for another push up?
Wow, another big down candle on the SPY in afterhours…
You know I wish I was a market maker. I’ve seen fills on the SPY as low as $4.82.
I was just cleaning up my desk and found an old post-it note stuck to the wall. On it, I list that day’s XLF ma … at $11.07.
Remember those days?
Oh yes, when we were going to go down to $10.30 and I bought puts without stop loss and lost it.. oh yes.. I remember that.
Anybody in here ever been successful at getting “junk” fills in after-hours? Something like getting a fill on SPY or BRK.B for waaaaay less than its normal trading range?
Yes, 500 shares at a time on SDS has worked from me.
Wow, what did you get in at?
And what broker? I notice TDAmeritrade doesn’t send the orders directly to the exchange at first (except for option spreads and complex orders)
GS still dropping to lows after hours.
Swine flu–truth or lie. Seems as though we have not heard about this for awhile. Another cover-up!
join me in PCLN puts if you think dat flue will be nasty. very toppy stock. ive got 3 contracts OCT $100 — OCT i believe. dont have my account upen to see
following that stock, but not in puts and calls. Do you see going to $100–$105 soon?
maybe next week for PCLN
note my call on EDU …. had resistance at $61.50 on my call out and it hit a high of $61.51 today. TA is working on some stocks but not so great on others. some are traded on TA alone i believe.
I suspect it was already related to similar flu viruses that we have already been exposed to. I heard that the death toll was only 27 here in the US (as compared to over 30,000 for the regular flu) and that a number of people may have already been exposed to similar flu strains. I also noticed shortly afterwards it seems like almost everyone in my area developed some type of worse than normal cold or very mild flu symptoms. Then I got it too. After about a week to 10 days, all the symptoms were mostly gone. If that was the swine flu, it was a lot milder than I thought. It could always come back and mutate next year though.
Thanks Rick, but having it or not is not my message–prayers go out to those who do. My thoughts are whether or not this will affect the markets as a potential downturn change.
major bear flag on 60 min. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……….
To Richard on PCLN