So this post isn’t to give future direction. It is to go through the process of how I came up with my 6 month chart.
I started with an initial possibility a little over 2 months ago. You can see the picture I posted later on after some thought on April 8:
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/woo6month-4?context=user
prior to April 17, I revised this slightly because the fib forecasts started to line up more nicely at a slightly lower area on the 6 month than 956:
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/woo6month-5?context=user
After April 17th, I left to a conference for a week. Then got really busy with work post-conference. Had to move to my new place, and wasn’t able to post as much.
When I found time later I finally posted the previous chart with updates which added more proof to the possible move. May 22:
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/wooew6-month-1?context=user
I went on vacation end of may to australia and came back not too long ago. Update June 1 – first day back from Australia:
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/wooew6-month-2?context=user
update today June 11:
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/wooew6-month-3?context=user
I came up with these projections based on EW. where roughly:
1 wave – 666-834
2 wave – 834-778
3 wave – 778-???
wave 3 needed to be a minimum length of wave 1. This put wave 3 minimum at 946 or so. However if you forecast fibs up to 946 it is incredibly disgusting. The best place to have a minimum 3 wave by what I call fib forecasting is to place the 3 wave minimum at 953-954 on the 60 min/6 month. We hit a 956 high for the day so far, but on the avgs, it lies SMACK DAB right on the fib ending I placed.
Market movements aren’t random. The significant support and resistance areas will always fall in line either with a future move fib forecast, with a trend line, or with a previous movement’s fib. if you forecast a movement, the continued moves will confirm or deny your projection, in my case, as more days passed, I received more and more confirmation for what I had previously thought.
Now this doesn’t have to be the end of the 3 wave. It can extend 1.62x of wave 1. We could potentially see 1050. As most of you know, I also use the 1 month and 10 day charts for more intraday details, but I think that this 6 month chart that I’ve now had posted for over 2 months has done a pretty darn good job.
I called 666 bottom when people were saying we would probably drop further. Called 780, called 840s, called 875, and now 950s when almost everyone else was calling for a move south during those times and I was alone with my charts, EW, and fibs. Okay I am done tooting my own horn. Hope I don’t sound like an arse, but man does this 950s feel goooood.
I have no calls on where the market is headed next. I’ll need another few days to draft something to follow for the next few weeks. Good luck!
hi man,
can u do one more projection for next 2 months.i would really appreciate it.
thank’s
ricky
Nice call master WOO and thanks.
master woo,
nice call.
i missed your call.
can u make a call for next month or two.so i can follow.
thank’s
woo,
That was a nice call. But did you have much conviction on your own prediction way back then? The market has moved up 15+% since april 8th. Some of the June calls purchased back then are up over 2000% as of today. So are you filthy rich yet?
Spread the wealth.
i did have the conviction back then, if you look back at the intraday and the comments, i think i was the ONLY one going the other way haha. only problem is, i day trade and don’t really hold long term as much, so even if i call the market right overall, if there are corrections or stops that aren’t placed right, i can still lose money.
it’s like my friend who bet on the nba finals for lakers to win in the conference finals and got the lakers won EVERY game he bet on, but not by the spread and specifications he bet on, so he lost money on every bet haha. poor guy.
i can’t spread the wealth, even if there was wealth..there is a girlfriend.
Great job Woo …. looking forward to the next piece of projections and obviously they can’t come fast enough
Still holding the BAC calls at breakeven now … vs a 15% profit in the day – look more for swing trades, as I cannot day trade in my account … so based on the daily chart, we broke out of the consolidation pattern, volume confirmed / spiked, ADX turned up and looks like we broke out of a BB squeeze …
We crossed and closed above previous resistance at 12.84 …. next target is 14.78 which coincides with double top and 200 MA sloping down …. how’z that for analysis
yeah BAC should be in good shape, especially with that upgrade. the whole financial market has been waiting for a catalyst to boost it up and BAC got just that with the current move. WFC is still consolidating and wedging, but it has remained over the 200ma and i think WFC is one of the healthier banks out there and should also help the rest of the financials. generally on breakouts like this, the company just keeps breaking out more.
last time BAC bounced off its 62% fib and had 4-5 HUGE up days when it started going. no guarantee that will happen this time, but at the moment, the 200ma is the only thing in the way to the north (and it’s a VERY big thing in the way). either way i would be careful as the backtest of anything could be hefty, but with the upgrade, you should be fine.
I called, I called, I called, I called. You’re gonna pull a muscle patting yourself on the back. Good work. Now do it again.
I’m glad you made money off your TA, but to be honest I cannot understand what it is you called. There’s so many fib lines on the charts it just seems like a jumbled mess to me. I also don’t see the reasoning behind your fib retracements. But hey, it works for you. That’s all that counts. Good job….I guess.
Also, another thing that has me puzzled is why you are using a 1-2-3 count for a corrective wave? Are you mapping 1-2-3 to A-B-C? If so why don’t you use ABC? I truly hope you are not suggesting a five count(!) for a corrective wave.
i know it’s hard to tell what’s going on just by looking at the chart right away. it’s much easier when u see the reasoning for each of the fibs drawn out. for the most part i don’t think it’s hard to tell which fibs correlate to which movements and which correlate to projections. sorry if it’s a little confusing. i have separate charts for forecasts and for actual movement retrace fibs, but the view i post here and generally on stocktock social are a combination of both these and packs in as much information as possible for fibs and trend lines on one general chart. it’s a lot to take in, and hopefully it’ll be easier for you to follow the next set of charts. if you sit down a while and look at the chart you’ll see the reasoning behind everything, but i know not everyone has that time.
in terms of this current wave from 666 up to this point, the reason why i’m using 1-2-3 is because it is not confirmed that this will be a corrective wave. there are a number of different ways to count the charts and we have to be careful that we don’t generalize the movement of this current wave based on what we THINK is our count for previous waves.
all we know at this moment is that there are POSSIBLY 3 waves that have finished. i say possibly because the 2 wave in the scenario i have above isn’t necessarily the prettiest definition of what a 2 wave should be. whether this finishes in 3 waves or 5 waves is not what i am trying to figure out in the above set of charts. all that the above shows is the minimum 3 wave that needs to be met before a continued 3 wave, 4 wave, or 1 wave occurs. what i called was a movement to the 953-954 area on the 60 minute/6 month chart when the market was at 820, and have held that position ever since for the last two months. i don’t know how else i can be more clear about that position and why i held it.
either way, hope the charts help, if they are too complicated or not useful for your own analysis, there are definitely a lot of other great posters on stocktock that use different methods and analysis for intraday and long term=P thanks for the input and let me know if you ever need clarification for anything in particular on any of my charts.
I didn’t want to be critical. I understand you put a lot of work into your charts. I just wanted to understand what your methodology is. You see, I’m not interested in simply being fed a fish (your 954 call for two months standing). For me to incorporate a method into my trading system it can’t just be a “black box” to me. I have to understand how that method works. The fact is I don’t understand your method and I’ve spent a lot of time trying to figure out your charts. That’s cool. Obviously a lot of people here do get it so it just means it’s not the right tool for me. Thanks for your time.
not a problem at all. i’ll try to break things down more in the future, if you have any specific questions related to this chart, let me know and i’ll try and explain it as thoroughly as possible. appreciate your opinion and for checking out the charts. definitely helps to keep me critical of my own work and i welcome it. this was more of an american flag on the moon, than a thorough analysis. maybe i shouldn’t have done it haha.
Woo, you da man broh
Keep up the great work man.
Oh.. do you think you can label the waves in the future?
Thanks.
yeah i’ll try and label the waves in the future. what i really SHOULD do, is post separate charts for fib projections, fib retracements, and a simplified wave label chart on various 2 year, 6 month, 1 month, 10 day charts, but i’ve been a little busy lately and don’t get paid to do this haha.
thanks for the suggestion!
Congratulations for sounding like an arrogant ass! Elliot Wave count is very relevant in this donkey rally, but your your Wave counts are completely off the mark. Anyone who knows basic EW, Wave 3 is anywhere between 1.6x, 2.6x and 4.3x Wave 1 and Wave 4 is typically a pullback between 24%, 38% and 50% of Wave 3. Wave 5 is typically around 1.6x-2.6x Wave 1. So let’s do some 2nd grade math using SPY (I will be rounding here)
Wave 1 on SPY: Start at 67 ends at 83 for net value of 16
Wave 2 on SPY: From 83 to 78 for net value of 5, 5/16 (~32% pullback)
Wave 3 on SPY: From 78 to 93 for net value of 15, 93 – 67 = 26, 26/16 = what do you know 1.63x
Wave 4 on SPY: From 93 to 88 for net value of 5, 5/15 = 33%. Wave 4 is also typically marked by consolidation and choppyness, which we observed in the month of May
Wave 5 on SPY: From 88 to 95.5 for net value of 7.5. 95.5-67 = 28.5, 28.5/16 (1st W) = 1.78x
Based on this simple calculation, this bear market rally should have been over and a reversal should have taken place. Volume on each of the waves have also confirm this 5 wave pattern.
The reason this market has continue on it’s stupidity binge is because a big mysterious futures buyer (hmpf, Goldman Sachs) keeps proping up the SPY when it looks like it is ready to break. That, or they come out and issue a conviction buy rating on crude, APPL and any other major stock that can provide leadership rally to avert the inevitable. Goldman knows everyone is looking at oil and dollar for directions in the market. So, they rigged the crude futures market too. I mean, can anyone with experience trading imagine the current levels in crude given the economic data? Almost no pullback, you think common sense would suggest you take profits and reduce size = selling positions = downward pressure for the market. GS has manipulated this market good…. Vix would suggest the water is safe, but common sense tells you, this market can head in either direction, with a bias towards a considerable selloff if you believe this is indeed a bear market rally. This is truly a failure of capitalism, when CNBullshit keeps cheerleading this obvious set-up, pump-and-dump attempt to rip off unknowing retail investors. They are not even a source of objective news anymore. Not once has CNBS mentioned this mysterious futures buyer maninpuating the market or the PPT every trader and their mother believes is proping up this market. For any casual retail, just say “NO” to this market. GS may try to push this market a little higher and CNBS will come out with all their dumbass moron analysts and declare recession has bottomed. Just say “NO!” By not buying into this clearly manipulated bullshit, let GS be the one left holding the bag when the selling begins.
Woo, if you truly believe we just finished Wave 3, I earnestly urge you to go all in in call options when you see the bottom of Wave 4 (which in reality should be Wave A). Happy trading jerk off!
Ummm. A little harsh No? I enjoy contrarian views but dude!!!! I agree with the content on CNBC and believe that what is going on to be wrong. Grey area prob states it’s totally legal too. Post some charts, toss out a couple of thoughts. That’s all you need? I’ve already been slapped once today for swearing so you’re lucky!
haha. yes a little harsh but it’s ok. this might make this guy hate me more, but i think we do our EW counts slightly differently. and i do know the methodology he is talking about. i can see the count he is talking about, and i can understand the mentality. Just don’t agree with him, and i don’t think i have been off too much in my long term calls over the last 6 months or so (not saying they will be right in the future). as always we on stocktock tell everyone to do their own research and never follow anything blindly. my charts are never a guarantee and they aren’t meant to step on the ideas of others. everyone makes mistakes, but the point is that we learn and continue to get better in our analysis. hopefully mr. you… will not be too emotional in the future to the point of name calling.
as i mentioned in an earlier post, the reason i call this a 3 wave and not a c wave is simply because of the possibility that exists. i’m fine with the market dropping to new lows and i’m fine with the market going higher. i also don’t take it personally when people disagree with me or my counts. i don’t think they are more right or wrong than i am. if someone were right 100% of the time, we would all just be following that person and making millions.
i am frankly leaning more towards a drop into new lows after this period, and have been waiting for that drop for a long time, but don’t want to take the risk in case we do head a bit higher. i don’t know what “mr. you an idiot” is talking about when saying i should buy calls at the end of my wave 4, i wouldn’t even know whether or not it’s a wave 4 or wave 1 until retracement fibs break and that is WAY south of here and even that risk isn’t worth taking.
generally i don’t think i am very biased in my opinions of bear or bull and am never harsh with disagreements. don’t know why everyone is taking everything so personally haha. most people know that i generally don’t gloat too much and aren’t full of myself. but i guess there are a lot of newer people so i have to be more careful. just posting and having some fun and doing a little hooray that some of the points i’ve called recently have hit. don’t have to agree with me, and people don’t have to listen to what i say or the charts i post, or even my methodology, but please do so in a nice manner so we can keep the thoughts friendly and flowing. everyone on the site is a team and we’re working hard to make everybody understand the market better and hopefully make some money. not every EWer agrees with each other and their methodology and not every analyst agrees, the world won’t fall apart. if you’re making money with your way, keep sharing and posting updates. Thanks!
in direct response to “mr. you’s” counts i’ll take a closer look at the spy, but the reason why i didn’t count this current move as part of a 5 of 5 was because on the spx, the 3 or C or whatever people want to call it, didn’t extend the same length of the 1 wave. i like to adhere to that rule that 3′s are as long as the 1 if not more, which is why i set my first minimal 3 wave end at the mid 950s and can’t accept the top at the 930s of wave 3/c.
whether it rises or drops here, i don’t have a personal opinion and i have no charts at the moment to back either view. good luck everyone!
Thanks, you should definetely post your ideas during the Intraday Commentary. I’d like to read more.
Hey Woo, you know I am a big fan. Not sure where all the hate is coming from. Lots of “trolls” and such lately it seems.
yup. the site is growing and there are newer posters and newer faces viewing, it’s not the smaller family of posters that it used to be, which is good for the site overall. the trolls and heavier criticism comes with the territory. hopefully we can weed out the bad parts from those who mean well, but don’t have as soft an approach. glad you’re still around and posting…
tough crowd huh? =P
That was great.. it would also be awesome if that’s exactly where we topped out!
Great job, woo. Thanks as always.
Today mess me up when I looked at it tooooo close.
I think WFC looks very weak. Maybe one more push to 25.50, then it is topped out and would be a good short. Perhaps it is best to stay away from Financial, though. Oh, the head games….!
Woo, you wrote: “wave 3 needed to be a minimum length of wave 1.”
It doesn’t have to, Woo.
In looking at my GET book, ‘Applying Technical Analysis Elliot Waves”. pd f it states:” 1)”Wave 3 is never the shortest. This means that Wave 3 is always longer than at least ONE of the other two waves (Waves 1 or 2). Usually, Wave 3 is longer than both these waves”
Ok,,,,so Wave 3 is shorter than Wave 1. Ok. No problem. This now makes Wave 5 go into that rule on page T-35, “If wave 3 is less than 1.62, the 5th wave over extends itself. From research, the ratio of wave 5 will be based on the entire length from the beginning of wave 1 to top of Wave 3.
and gives 3 scenarios:
1)- Extended wave 5 =.618 of W1-top of W3,,,aka .618 of 26.60 pts.
2)- equal to that W1-3 top’
or, 3)-1.62 that ditto range.
1= from Wave 4-$88.15 w/Opt 1=.618 of 26.60=$16.44+88.15=$104.59
2=$114.75
3=$131.24
If any of these scenarios are ‘True’, then we are looking at gains of 10% to 38% up from here. (i could be figuring this wrong, too, I’m only human/trying not to be idiot)
To: Mr. You’re an Idiot
You wrote this”Wave 1 on SPY: Start at 67 ends at 83 for net value of 16
Wave 2 on SPY: From 83 to 78 for net value of 5, 5/16 (~32% pullback)
Wave 3 on SPY: From 78 to 93 for net value of 15, 93 – 67 = 26, 26/16 = what do you know 1.63x”
Ok, I see you say Wave 1 is 16, tho accuracy/ it is 16.68, And Wave 3 is 14.26, not 15. But the formula you have punched in there to figure this is incorrect. You are stating that the formula is “1.62 ((of the start of Wave 1 to the Top of Wave 3,)) by that 26 pt. move. That is the wrong way to do it, according to E.W. rules.
Wave 3 is related to Wave 1, not off of “Start of Wave 1 to top of Wave 3″ , which is what you have figured. That’s the rule for ‘extended Wave 5′.
You might review the Rules. Or, just buy Puts now. Get a jump on the coming disaster.
p.s. everyone here just LOVES your name! That color looks SO good on you this time of year, too.
i don’t think i’ve ever seen a wave 3 shorter than a wave 1 as of yet. i’ll have to go take a look back at the book and see the definitions again and the exact wording, but thanks for bring this up!
i currently take it to mean if wave 3 doesn’t extend to 1.62, the 5th wave can extend to the 1.62, which i have seen before. i know there are actually some variations on EW, some even say wave 3 can be 7x of wave 1, which i think is ridiculous (but who knows, maybe it’s possible), but then you get so many various options on EW counts that it almost gets impossible to have any order in anything. i’ve kept my solid rules very simple for the most part, maybe i am OVERsimplifying. but i have always been of the EW school of thought that wave 3 must be equal to or longer than wave 1.
but another important thing i take into consideration is…you may not see a clear EW pattern at all times. there will be moments where it may just keep on extending forever and ever and never retrace till it’s just over. EW has it’s place in the market, but it shouldn’t be the only tool used for analysis, when the stars align and the counts work well, it is possibly the best tool imaginable, but these moments don’t come around often. which is why sometimes i think we all can have counts…sometimes it is not the time to be counting…
which way are you leaning for the market at this point Ed? would appreciate your thoughts as i start drafting some newer charts. current counts would be great too. thanks!
and i completely agree with you on the math for “Mr. You…” i have never used the method he uses and don’t believe in using the numbers and fib numbers that way. to me it was just never an option, or something that worked.
In this book : Technical analysis: the completel resource for market financial technicians, it states these characteristics of waves.
–> Wave 3 is never shorter than waves 1 and 5
…
Wave 1 is an impulse or a leading diagonal
Wave 3 is larger than wave 2
Wave 5 retraces at least 70% of wave 4.
In the fifth wave, a diagonal, extension, or truncation indicates that a major reversal is to occur soon.
thanks zee =P
“which way are you leaning for the market at this point Ed?”
IF, you are a long term IRA type investor, you should be in long, and stay long, until you get a ‘Sell Stop’. You don’t have a SellStop, or a BuyStop? tsk, tsk.
. You should have been long at LEAST 7% off the Low in March.. Maybe 5% off low.
And, where is the market GOING? Hell, I don’t know!! No one knows! I’m not in that type of business; for it is FALSE to predict. It doesn’t work. Or sure, fibo works pretty good, tho nobody knows for sure. Only God knows, right?
All you can do is have a ‘mechanical trading system’ as I’ve suggested here a couple times.
My system? Sell it if goes 5-7% under any High. Wait awhile,,,,and buy it back if it comes up 5-7% off a Low. As in March….
Keep the rules in effect for 10-30 or however many years ya want. Till ya croak. Believe in America. Have faith. But have Sell Stops and Buy Stops in place…hehehe. “Trust but Confirm”!
If one had these rules in place Oct 2007 w/$100K in the IRA, you would have sold 4 times, and re-bought 4 times since then. Your $100 K would now be worth $159,684. IF tho, you had ‘bought and held’, you would now be worth $58,482. I KNOW.
Over $101K difference.
Most dont’ have this system. Most have fallen into the trap of what they set it up to do, which is DON’T trade it.
Do the math. Pull up a 2 year Day chart, and figure out the 4 buys and 4 sells I talk about. I should start a hedge-fund with my sort of returns.
Where’s the market going? I don’t know. It’s been going up. If it goes down, I’ll short it. I’m a ‘swing trader’. Have figured out how to buy/sell the zig-zags. I am hoping for the best, but always have the worst in consideration.
5%. I dare ‘em. And I’ll go the other way. When? I don’t know when. The trend is your friend, until it isn’t.
God knows. Allah,,Jehovah knows. ‘The Big Electron’ , HE KNOWS….not me. Have fun, be nice to folks, and have the time of your life…. Life is short. There is much we can accomplish.
You’re right. My wave count is wrong. Robert Prechter has almost identical wave counts as mine. I mean, what he does he know, right?
GOOD JOB WOO ……… im one of the guilty calling for the top at 40 WEEK MOVING average and that lined up with 943 ……….. however, i started loading up the shorts, little by little in the 930s. guess im quite impatient but learning to be more so. along the way i placed losing long hedges
great strategy. also, tried to play SRS back in the mid 20s but got the hint and paired it with FAS for multiple winning trades. weird times.
———- 915 ———— this is my call for the end of next week and that is how im trading. many many tired looking stocks out there and im feeling that my portfolio is filled with them. anything more spculative like PALM ive got small positions. anything that is behaving well within it’s charts: IBOC EDU PBI PHH i’ve got larger positions. these larger put positions have fundamental backing. hopefully that is it for W4 and we begin a slow and painful decline through the summer so we can actually get some companies on the cheap.
VERY VERY IMPORTANT to drown out the noise of the media and focus on the charts.
once again …….. GREAT JOB WOO! when you are around i always follow what you post. remember when everyone was jumping into FAZ early; you and I were doing our best to debate the next point higher? hopefully this helped some keep thier short bets small.