4:20
Bears push the market back down to what seems to be an identical day to yesterdays market action… but the only thing is, this time around, the bulls have significantly weakened the resistance line at 94.90 with 3 hits today!! Next time might be the break… unless the bears can break through support first! The bulls should hope for a small pull back into tomorrow and buy at support with a tight stop and then hold on to their position for the break. The bears should hope for a strong shoot down early tomorrow with strong volume.
1:58pm
We are approching the resistance yet again.. this time we have more of a chance to break it, since it’s the second time today that we will hit it.. now it lies at 94.91 on the SPY… but it’s really hard to know which way we go as we hit 2 PM time. New lows on the VIX though.. make it tough to short here at the resistance line.
1:47pm
I am covering my ICE short here at around 118.10… that’s a 2% gain for me in one day for one stock. It might find some support around the 118 area, and into 2 pm reversal time i don’t want to take the risk.
1:43pm
SRS 10 minute still trading in it’s own perspective symmetric triangle:
10:18am
I took a short on ICE at a double top formation around 120.70 ish.. with a stop up above the 122 mark. SPY hit resistance yet again and fell back down.. now look for the ascending channel support around 93.80$.
8:47am
I will be away most of the today, so I expect people to keep others updated through posts! XLF right now is trading right around it’s symmetric triangle resistance line.
9:49pm (monday)
Here’s a 10 minute chart of the SPY so we can monitor some resistance and support levels. The most important index to be looking at tomorrow though will be the financials, if they breakout to the upside above 12.45 with strong volume, or above yesterdays high the SPY will follow.
URE hasa clear 5 waves up from MAR but, is the 5th wave done?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ure
they are really just fluffing this market up over and over. getting a bit tiring. no conviction to any buying until we can take no advantage of it. the last 5 mins.
cup and handle? =)
target, woo?
u know…i’m still leaning north at the moment…
even though we had fibs in this area, they are fibs from a prior move.
the fibs from the drop of 951-927 end at 942. and we’re well above that. unless it’s the 78% fib that wants to hold (i have NO idea what it is), then i don’t see a big drop likely anytime soon. I would at least want to see a decent double top of a more significant number.
if we do head south, we might just hit that 942 as a backtest before taking off to match the previous highs.
i’m not sold on the short position at all.
Agreed. That move just ate up 945 and toasted it, now just pulling back to take out the next level.
Wow, what a down move.
Just made a key reversal candle .. think we’re going down again
yup, a large red candle. trend line defended on the 5 minute/1 month
could be the high for the day…
a LOT of resistance at that point. pretty much the last defense before 960s.
It looks like 950 is really major resistance which seems logical as a break of 950 would be a really strong signal of a new bull market. A break below 94 means doubletop
I believe a break below the descending resistance of the sym triangle would lead us to down to the ascending resistance, which would correlate nicely with a sell-off eod
im putting a stop on my URE and taking off for half hour
ha ha…. what a market. just about to go. one last check. ditched my URE at entry point. who the hell knows. i know this much. nobody knows except those inside the big market circle. im out of that position so now. relax and check back in at the closing bell.
MY GUESS IS —- 945 —- is the close. no answers!
4.04 for me
only way to explain if this area is the top is if it is a correction to this point. which could make sense, but is almost impossible to call. other than that, banks are still looking healthy overall in comparison to the last few days.
942 needs to break for bears to have a chance.
This going up and down makes my stomach turn, maybe we just saw a backtest of that descending line
It’s a correction. Take advantage of it co-traders. We’ll need a catalyst to break this trend and will recognize it (catalyst) when we see it occur.
We refuse to close below the trendline … is that a ‘tell’ ///
I fought the law and finally won one.
DIng! …. 3pm. Place your bets!
Heads they win, tails we lose.
SPY puts here.
haha come onto our side mate – the bull camp
I never learned to do sideways!
Sell a call spread or a put spread. It allows to you “win” in a sideways market.
I’m calling a sell-off or just downwards movement, 950 seems so strong and I don’t believe bulls can keep up this trendline pounding ..
XLF fighting with the 200 ma at 12.50 on the daily.
backtested trend line…
one more test of the high than short if it can’t break thru
H+S on /es target 938.
There it came, it’s really moving big when it’s actually moving. It pays to pay attention to the wedges
I see an HS in place on the 1-minute chart, but then .. WTF
Could be a potential backtest of the HS neckline
slight break of trend line south…
line still not crossed on the 5 minute.
I am thinking we are going to see a move up …. since we are bull flagging on the descending resistance-turned-support line ….
may be right.
hard to say at the moment…we’re starting to dip a little below the trend line…if it stays down too long, it’ll become a confirmed break south and any move north could seen as a backtest of the line before a drop.
I believe that was just backtesting, perhaps we put the descending line too arbitrary .. We have a HS in place on the 2minute as well
Small position vix 27.5/30 call spread as a hedge against my rimm/apple longs. Will add if Vix bounces down to the daily BB.
no going down,to weak to break 950
this is a backtest of the actual fib of the drop….at 942.
i don’t know if this will break…usually when you pass it like this, the only time you go back is to say one last goodbye. but the trend line north of here makes things a bit tricky.
Yo woo, what trendline north?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p25986053436&a=160227340
Woo – is there any other way to share this … cannot see any of the data, as I don’t havea subscription … is there a way to share this like Shanky / Uner some of the others do …. thanks in advance
http://i41.tinypic.com/1zwowoz.png
Thanks Uner !!
That’s a link to a static image of woo’s chart.
The 20ma/10m is been support since noon.
Crack!
*patch up with some tape*
If 20SMA 10m breaks we’re headed south, but this behaviour is starting to make me cranky. it’s the market against manipulative forces, but on the other hand, bears don’t need to pile in before 950 if the want a good price
Broken below the trendline – did not confirm yet … forming a bear flag though on 10 min ….
If we close above 94.81 – bear flag negated ….
I see this as a succesful backtest, I think we’re headed lower, potentially around 20SMA on the 10-minute which has been acting as good support through the day
http://i43.tinypic.com/10dtfkj.png
Ok, could be a bull flag for the last 15 minutes of the day.
bingo
awwww….i just needed N-25 to make bingo…
IM BACK
——– at work now for a bit on our day off. looks like that 945 is a brick wall. many may want to a stock scan of OVERBOUGHT AND DECLINING RSI . you may find some nice scalps to take on a slow pull back into OPEX . try to find some that are above pain level.
ive unloaded all my longs except HNU.TO — 2x long Nat Gas. but im short ECA.TO against the whole position. added to my PALM PUTS today. any long positions i took today i sold at the top including any calls i bought last week. one more try at being naked as last i checked you can see through Natural Gas and i have alot of it
see if we get close to a 945 close
you can see from the volume that alot of supply available around 945. soon as we get close and as we backed away from it, the volume picked up on a very light volume day. think alot of people are simply staying out of this market. and those who want out are selling at 945 along with the short crowd.
in the last 3 attemps at pushing 945 over… sellers enter a bit earlier. jumping over each other to rid supply. we have heard alot about insider selling picking up. we may just be witnessing them fighting over a limited number of buyers
we’re back in the ascending wedge….
the wedge actually finishes tomorrow though haha. today might just be a pointless day into close.
at this rate BAC may end the day healthily above a 6 month major fib line….
if that happens…tomorrow could mean a HUGE rise…
no guarantees though. still 20 minutes left in the day.
on the 6 month, the spx is forming a cup and handle ready to break out as well…
WOO, think they are doing the bare minimum to keep the banks and cre “looking” healthy in thier charts so they can raise capital. im not so
sure that is bullish for higher prices in the near term it is nice if you are already in the stock as you feel “safe” from decline because each time any volume comes into these stocks they are saved.
Is this an IHS with yesterday as the head woo?
could be….not sure if the last portion will play out and give a strong drop before a rise…
if the bears want this, they’re going to have to drop the financials and the market really fast in the next 17 minutes…
LOL you got it
there’s the bear attempt!
gotta break 942 though…
Woo – I am seeing an ascending triangle … if you connect the highs from yesterday and today as the top and a trendline below today’s lows sloping up for the bottom ,,,, see it ending by noon tomorrow …
Fiat gettig testy about Chrystler (CNBC)–decision by Supreme Court will be interesting.
holy candle….screw the most people at once…
This market seems like a perfect playing field for the big players .. first day, bear trap. Second day, small bull trap and back to the triangle ..
Amazing what a whipsaw day it’s been and the S&P has been in a 10 point range all day. Like the Tasmanian devil out there just bouncing all over the place.
942 level held. bulls are still in control.
last 3 minutes must be scary
Da boyz not quite ready to give up
Out of my SPY puts 9% gain in last ~hr. My dumb logic for this scalp, didn’t think we will break Monday’s high with AAPL lagging.
DONT NORMALLY PLAY index ….. small position in SPY JUN 95 PUTS at that last rush up.
Kind of looks like a bull trap, not sure what is really going on .. why do you believe 942 is significant?
62% retrace of the drop from 951.
normally shouldn’t pass this high if it were going to drop. it happens, but rarely.
Woo, if get BassAckwards from Friday’s HOD to Mondays LOD,, the number is 38%
942-947.5 has been a key line for a while.
I wouldn’t call holding 942 as “bulls in control”, i don’t think either side is in control. We’ve been in this area for almost a week now.
If anything, it seems like the market is pushing down more than up at the 942-947.5 level.
2 daily doji candlesticks on SPY in a row is *INDECISION*
If we get a down doji tomorrow on SPY, we will have a rare tri-star doji, which would be bearish.
ascending trend line is right around here….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p25986053436&a=160227340
Link to static image of woo’s chart:
http://i41.tinypic.com/1zwowoz.png
wow…market is going to end above the 942 retrace, and below the monthly trendline…
bac slightly below it’s 12.03 6 month major retrace line….
genius…pure genius…
Someone is really trying to push this market higher, the last candles here look quite manipulative
Get the hell out of here JPM
ME!!!
DA BEARS!
S&P 500 = up 0.34%
Nasdaq = up 0.96%
Dow = down 0.03%
Yes, this is a very impressive performance by “DA BEARS”!
pause …
not
Oh, and the VIX was down 5.61% on the day.
Number of TA charts posted by Morris: 0
Number of TA blogs posted by Morris: 0
Number of TA discussions advanced through Morris’ contributions: 0
Number of anonymous snide comments: 1000+ and counting.
Sold BUCY. Good trade. Tomorrow the 10 yr gets auctioned off. Market might be nervous.
Cheers all.
nice one. i got 4% out of my NDN that i bought yesterday. somethings go right for me
actually since going in the red M.O.M from May 8, and not sleeping. ive rebounded quite nicely. when NDN hits $11….. look at the puts. i have a chart in social photos on it. most delicious at $11 on the weekly for a bearish bet.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DEAR FRUSTRATED TRADERS…. allow me to introduce myself. the name is Noel Direction
and ive been in business for several days now namely in the north american markets. im going to be leaving sometime soon so you can enjoy some peace of mind. however, im not going to tell you when. today i’ll certainly be making a better acquaintance with your mind right at the close. enjoy a good nights sleep
SPY 95 puts should be good for a double… because i say so! it is time for the SPY to pull back to the 200 ma… what better time to do it then now,,, into OPEX. if we go higher to Thursday ill double down on them.
opex is next week…
still a lot of time left.
You better not be saying you’re going to stop playing the market. I know you’re moving into new digs and selling the shop but that’s all you’re allowed.
Short S&P stoch 15 & 30 overbought
Take a look at that 1-minute candle on the SPY .. To me it seems as if bears are not pilling in because they know they can just dump at 950..
Daily Candlestick on SPY: (Dragonfly?) Dogi
Doji
Bulls need to regroup for 950,few more days
Wow, SPY is still dropping AH.
AH and PM are all ridiculous…
except if a catalystic event occurs.
Have posted a few times today (Chrystler), but if Supreme Court holds administration accountable for their “slam-dunk” actions (via balance of powers), this could have a major effect going forward. The decision will affect future unemployment , etc. along with giving powder to the minority in Congress. I would consider this catalystic.
CHA CHING …. pour moi. we dont have to fall far for options writers to be happy. more choppy waters ahead me thinks.
Max pain didn’t work on the way down and it probably won’t work on the way up. Max pain is a good rule of thumb in normal markets, but this market is anything but normal.
In fact, the SPX already made a key reversal candle some days ago, so I believe we’re headed lower or even at least the next day or two
942 has been taken out on the futures..
Chrystler to extend former dealers to sell cars until March 15 (from tomorrow)—-Interesting….Sounds like a problem brewing!!! Administration shuffling to file new briefs.
By the way, family owns several commercial properties in south– 46 cents on the dollar from 2008. Lucky to not have morgages, but still concerned. Where are u TALF?
Kind of late now. Most of the dealers they decided to crap on already had to hustle to sell at big discounts (and usually a loss) to retail and/or the handpicked (maybe politically) dealers that are staying.
UNG : Today’s gap down was likely an exhaustion gap, and the end of the downtrend.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=90816855-f2c7-4105-b7d9-5f7a2ba5e73
but we need a confirmation tomorrow.
Afterhours: Almost up 1%.. and breaking symmetrical triangle resistance in AH.
If tomorrow is an open gap higher, and if UNG develops further strength in the first 15 mins of trading, the gap will likely be a breakaway gap.
Although expect the unexpected with a pullback, any pullback should be a buying opportunity with a stop.
First target for UNG is $15 for tomorrow if the breakout is -confirmed- .
Look at the volume today, it’s absurd.. 70 million shares.. something’s up with UNG.. 150000 puts for OCT, huge volume.. and were sitting at around 14$ in a tight trading range.
I think you’re right Zee.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31174107