Intraday Commentary ~ 05/29/2009

By
FocalEquity
– May 29, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

 

4:05pm
ES HITS 200 SMA daily for the first time today, right at the close… coinciding with the end of the month..  wow this is going to be one of the most interesting weeks to come… i’ll have a video out today.. I took profits on my SSO position that was hedging me.  
 

3:48pm
I would like to remind people, that today is also the end of the month and that institutions could be pushing this market higher in order to show their investors that they have been long this market at some point during the month and have not missed the move up. Potentially monday we could see a strong sell off of these assets.  

3:41pm
The SPY is breaking the resistance level of the triangle following the XLF… will we close above it or below it?  

3:18pm
financials get a bid and move to hit descending resistance once more on strong volume. 

3:06pm
Potential H&S forming on the 10 minute… though we might just continue trading in that triangle formed by descending resistance and the ascending support we have been looking at which is now sitting at 91.06. 

2:58pm
Wow… strong reversal candle forming on the SPY right now on the 10 minute. I’m putting my SSO position back on with a stop 10 cent below again (THIS IS A HEDGE ONLY).   

2:51pm
I covered my long SSO position at a loss, on purpose, as it served as a nice hedge in case we broke higher, but as of right it looks like the Bears won this battle, and will look to win the war early next week. As long as we stay a few tenths of a point below the resistance line by the end of this day.  

2:46pm
A break of 91.02 will yield a strong push lower to at least 90.63 ish. Financials are much weaker than the rest of the market. 

2:25pm
The reversal time is finally coming to play here, we have a very strong down candle for the first time today, and we would have to see if that can hold, the strongest support is at 91.00-91.02 which is the ascending support + the 50 SMA 10 minute. 

1:45pm
You can redraw the resistance a little higher… and that’s why we are still feeling some pressure, though we are right at that resistance as well, as shown by this 10 minute SPY.
spy102 

1:40pm
XLF getting closer to it’s respective descending channel at 12.07 now, if we break this, then you’ll definitely  see the S&P push up much higher, because the financials and tech which has run up way too much in the last 3 days and are now consolidating are the only ones that are putting pressure on this market right now. 
 

1:30pm
Current candle is breaking the descending resistance with strong volume , we’ll have to see if that holds.. and breaks us to new highs or not.  

12:49am
We continue to trade in a very tight range between the descending resistance, and the ascending support which is also the neckline of the H&S. The volume to the downside is stronger so far, but i bought some shares of SSO to hedge myself in case of a breakout.  
 

11:35am
Market is showing signs of a head and shoulders on the 10 minute SPY, with an ascending support line which use to be resistance for a few days, it’s now sitting at 90.85 a break would shoot us down quite significantly. In the last 10 minutes I bought some more longer term PUTS.  Break even point on all my shorts are around 90.20$. 

11:11am
Very nice fakeout here, this means that now we have to look at the descending channel only in a 30 minute view and not in 10 minute candles. We have more conviction selling right now going on, the fakeout if sustained will yeild a hard sell off to the bottom of the triangle. Financials are the leaders to the downside here, as they have broken down the ascending wedge that I had showed yesterday. This negates my intentions to play long intraday trades.  
 

10:24am
descending trend-line now officially broken, the next move would have to be to teh 200 SMA daily now… and that’s where i plan to add shorts, I also plan to play intraday swings on bull flags with bullish positions.  913.75 on the S&P is also strong resistance though. 

10:02am
Consumer Sentiment inline with confidence  at 68.7 we excpected 68.0 , up higher, propping the market higher here. 

:52am
SPY 10 minute chart as we await for more news at 9:55am:
spy101 

9:48am
PMI decreases to 34.9 despite higher expectations market selling off, below descending resistance. Treasury yields plummeting today.  

9:34am
Financials hit descending resistance right at the open and shoot down a full percent from open.

xlf101 

9:11am
GDP came at -5.9% which is a little worse than expected, but at least it is a push higher from the -6.1%. The market is now above the resistance of the trendline, but there is  a lot of news coming out in the first 30 minutes of trade. 9.45 = PMI (manufacturing) 9.55 (consumer confidence).  

9:55pm (Thursday)
Hey guys, usually friday’s tend to be very low volume days, but tomorrow can be a relatively stronger volume day in comparison to any other friday. We are sitting on important technical levels and both the bulls and bears will have to fight quite vigorously. We have important economic data early in the morning including 1st Quarter GDP revision. The estimates are for an upward revision from -6.1% to -5.5%, I however, believe that the revision will either be flat or actually to the downside. That’s only because of an overestimation of inventories. I expect between -5.9% and -6.5%. We will have to see.   I am posting the chart below yet again, to show you that the blue descending line, if broken could spur strong bull buyers into this market. That said the 200 SMA will dip below 930 level on the S&P, and so the next line to look at is the red descending line, which might coincide nicely with the 200 SMA early next week if we break. I am about 50% short this market and 45% cash, with 5% other investments. I continue to look for shorting opportunities as we move higher towards the 200 SMA, and will look to unload if we ever get to 880, and 875. 
 

This is a 30 minute on the SPY:
spy-30-minutes

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.