4:20pm
XLF ascending wedge could mean more weakness for the financial market in the future:
3:48pm
H&S now on the ES or S&P 5 min… with a neckline at 902.5. A break of 907.50 would negate that H&S. I won’t have a video today, sadly, but I might have 2 tomorrow: both midday and after weekend videos!
2:33pm
Strong volume candle, now we are getting close to another descending resistance, with resistance at 91.40, i’m looking to add to my shorts there making my portfolio 50% short. The 200 DMA continues to descend and is now at 930.
2:01pm
Dow Jones has a much more clear chart, as always, with less fakeouts and better entry points (30minute):
1:19pm
huge move lower of last week it also coincides directly with the descending resistance right at $91.07.
1:05pm
US being able to sell its treasuries has prompted a nice rally in the treasury market helping the stock market lift itself from session lows. A possible inverse H&S is now going to be in play as soon as we break 902 on the S&P.
12:40pm
SKF calls were bought for JULY, right at the money strike prices.
12:00pm
Market continues a little higher, I’m going to be adding to some shorts very soon, at 90.60-90.70, it’s an ascending resistance that we had for a while + 50 SMA 10 minute + 61.8% retracement of the move lower from yesterday’s highs + descending triangle resistance is now at around 91.00 ish.
11:12am
We got a huge bounce off the 89.20 level marked in blue on my chart, which frankly surprised me quite a bit. The 200 SMA 10 minute is descending and is at 90.34, expect that to be some resistance also the 50% retracement of the whole move from the highs lower is at 90.42, so strong resistance heading in here, which could potentially put a top on this rally and create the right shoulder of an H&S pattern on the 10 minute.
10:22am
Things got a little oversold way too quick, we are getting a small little bounce now on the 5 minute SPY on low volume, which is potentially a nice bear flag.
10:00am
Home sales up 0.3% less than expected, and now march is sitting at down 3% for home sales. Prime Fixed Rate Lows are DOUBLING in their delinquency rates. Market sells off.
9:44am
Stock market bounces on better than expected durable goods number, the futures had a nice run-up since 8.30 am, but it seems like the cash markets are not getting so much of that conviction buying they need to get up again. Rememeber the descending resistance is now at 91.15, and we have seen quite a few fakeouts on this resistance already, so be careful.
9:34pm(wednesday)
I just wanted to update you on the charts, as they continue to play out in what is a triangle pattern formation,with an increasing likelihood to the DOWN side prompted by weakness in financials and speculation that the US might lose its triple A rating and would not be able to raise capital:
If you go back and look at the SPY 30 minute chart, you would see that we had a descending resistance line, that was tested already once last week, and we fell back down. Yesterday we tested it, and couldn’t close above it. Today we actually rallied a little bit above it, and then started shooting back down. The fact that we couldn’t break it today, makes me believe the bearish story more than the bullish. It looks like we will be looking for a push lower towards the 882 and 880 level on the S&P. It also means, that the likelihood of 880 breaking is now higher, as we have tested it more times than we have tested the descending resistance that we hit in early trading today.
That being said, we did end on some ascending support (shown by the green ascending segment I drew) and so a small bounce into tomorrow is possible, a break of this support line does shove us lower though, so I suggest you extend the line into tomorrows trading play and short at its breaking point.
S135 that woul dbe logical and make sense. Instead the market is ‘forward looking’ and is now using projected 2010 earnings as a guide. But then they go a step further lately and proclaim that it will take until 2012 to get back to NORMALIZED earnings.
900 SPX makes sense under those imaginary 2012 earnings numbers.
You honestly think hedge funds are going to wait around for 2-3 years to see if companies can make earnings and in the meantime give them the benefit of the doubt? Please.
We shall see. History has never played out that way, but that’s usually the marketing.
This market is putting me to sleep!! ZZZZZZ
Don’t go to sleep, you might miss DOW 10000.
I dunno Idan, I have been short FAZ since early this morning after dropping my long FAZ and it seems to be working out well.
I can’t see why this action would surprise anybody. The bears have had 3 weeks since 930.17 on the S&P to take this market down yet here we are at 905. Do you think this is scary to buyers? Uh, I don’t think so.
The 38.2% retracement of the move up from 667 to 930 is a little under 830. Get the market there and I bet you’ll see some bulls begin to get nervous (although 75 points down seems like a long way from here given this action).
agree. like i have said. choose your stocks carefully if you are afraid to go long at these levels. im treading water this week after having a good 3 weeks. but im also in more cash.
1 day at the market bottom
1 month at the market top
ID LIKE TO KNOW HOW MUCH MONEY IS BEING THROWN AT THIS THING
and how much more is available. if it is unlimited , that is quite bullish. and
i do not want a close above 906. if we close below 906 but above 900 i dont mind holding
my 1/2 BGZ overnight.
think this is even more confusing than last may. especially with this action today.
Richard – q on XLY – its ooking weaker than SPY …
My entry is at 1.35 …. have an order in for selling at 1.40 (still a loss including commissions) … but my system shows it never reached there i.e. 1.40 …. wondering whether I will have to take a loss on this …. what do you suggest ?
Richard – thoughts on XLY ?
Anjali, i bought more on the last move up TUES so im in at average strike of $1.11 and sold 1/3 today $1.25. our puts get worth less as the market stays up. time decay will start to hurt us if this keeps up.
i’ve never seen anything like this in my life of trading. last May gave me a monster headache and this May is giving me a bigger one. im not sure how the FED can 1. keep markets up 2. keep interest rates down 3. keep energy prices in check 4. keep people working ….. simply too many fires and one of them must be sacrificed. im in the camp it will be the markets. we all know they stuck alot of cash in the markets in a round about way.
like i posted before. you can buy some calls against your puts if you are really concerned we rocket higher. but, if we just go sideways, your puts and calls will go down in value. im naked short. slept well last night. i’ll be fine tonight too. something has to give soon. their is zero fundamental reason for the markets to head higher and that has to show up in the charts soon?
For those, like myself, who are not overly bearish and cannot daytrade, writing near-the-money puts on stocks you want to own is another way to make some money when the market moves up, sideways, or slightly down.
Since 2 pm a h&S on the 1 min at 90.60. Also looks like a support line, so could go either way
TNX is fading
investor gains some confidence
“1:05pm
US being able to sell its treasuries has prompted a nice rally in the treasury market ”
========
Hey, no problem! Any (or all) that don’t sell, we can just buy with money we print. It has worked for years — why stop now? What a way to pile up valuable additional assets in the Fed’s accounts!
Yeah, I hate it when journalists who’ve never traded in their lives put out this crap.
The bid-to-cover was extremely well yesterday but we still fell. And the headline? “U.S. Treasury Yields Rise in Response to Worry That U.S. Won’t Be Able to Sell Its Debt”
cottonman57. Your answer is back on page #3.
Thanks Al, I’m signing up for the 2 week trial. Will keep you posted on my success.
Def above pennant line now. Note that we did have a two-hour fakeout yesterday.
Many pennants have a fake-out breakout on the opposite side.
We shall see!
Is more than one normal? I’d have expected this breakout to rip northwards…it is past 3pm, after all!
I don’t show it outside the triangle yet. 12.10+
I’m allowing for yesterday’s high to be outside the pennant. You’re using it as a resistance point I take it?
Yup
Using your version, we’re only approaching our third touch of the top line. Still have had three good hits already on the downside. I’m a big fan of four-times-a-charm.
SOLD 200 38.00 at break even basically
……………………sigh…………… now this should tank
if you made lots-o-cash trading this today please advise
what you did. rest and re-load tomorrow.
—— PHH —- is behaving perfectly…. moved sharply lower and then made a retrace. i see further downside for this one. target is $12
I did well today. Actually, I have made money every day this week with very few moves. I came into the week with DBA, FAZ, GLD, TBT, USO, and VTI and added GDX and MOO over the last two days. I might have made more if I had been more active but I keep things pretty tight when the action gets choppy.
Richard – wait for 20 on SRS …. we are getting there ….
Shorted FAZ after dumping FAZ long first thing this morning, market had up written all over it I don’t know why everyone wants to fight the trend.
907.5 broken..
In Faz – 4.96 as a hedge.
I knew you would be there at the finish. I think gap up in the AM with a little bit better $$$ not much though. Playing it safe. Down after.
Could be. FAZ is soooooo low that it just feels like more of a hedge play. What is the worse that could happen? Gap down a $1? Who cares. That would mean my longs probably went flying.
Personally – am seeing one more move up tomorrow am – reaching 91.50 … approx 20 on SRS … that is where I will buy ….
ok , ill follow you. lost money day trading today. SRS on the daily looks soooooo bullish that it has to drive most people crazy as it wiggles and squiggles above $20. im starting to feel like this market will just high base forever. and man alive, forever is a long time
All this bad news about Real Estate, Layoffs, Bankruptcies, Foreclosures, 12% of homeowners late and the markets rally, SRS drops, FAS is up over 7% LOL!!!
This is freekin CRAZY!
My portfolio is all green today with the exception of FEED which is down .006 (0.10%) and CYCC is up 21%
All I can do is laugh. This isn’t supposed to be happening.
Here are two stocks anyone recently burned on FAZ could use to boost thier profits.
CIT -Investors gravitated toward CIT’s June $5 calls, as well as longer-dated July $5 calls, signaling a modest amount of optimism in a stock that has fallen sharply in the past two years.
CYCC -A randomized phase II study of sapacitabine, an oral nucleoside
analogue, in elderly patients with AML previously untreated or in
first relapse or previously treated MDS”
Date/Time: Friday May 29, 2009, 2:00 P.M. – 6:00 P.M. Eastern In addition to the sapacitabine and seliciclib posters and presentations, Cyclacel will host an investor event in Orlando, on Friday, May 29, 2009 starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern. At the event Hagop M. Kantarjian, M.D., Professor of Medicine and Chair of the Department of Leukemia at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, will discuss the Phase 2 data presented earlier in addition to members of Cyclacel’s senior management team.
$5.00 price target on CIT ($3.50)
$2.00 price target on CYCC ($1.27)
crazy talk
Had an appt and had to leave early. So far moles count is working out. his line in the sand is
913.84. If we go over that then the count is invalid. So there is some upside room left for a final leg up in the morning that I was just reading a few calling for.
I feel like the reason that every sell off gets reversed is not only strength in the bulls, but outside money (they say trillions of dollars) being added into the market as longer term investors feel more confident in the market. These people will get trapped once the market falls lower. Tomorrow the 200 SMA will be under 930… this means that we won’t be making a double top in markets anymore…
I have a pretty hard resistance right on us right now, with stoch pinned high ready to break down and the 10/20 EMA crossing on strong sell volume at EOD.
Tomorrow will be a down day, especially with the financials slipping so fast in AH right now.
924 is the brick wall this week if the bulls come out to play more.
I agree I have my up channel and my down channel crossing at exactly 92.40 SPY and will be ready to go all in short should we go up and confirm the reversal at that target.
That crossing point happens at 2:30 central time tomorrow on my chart.
The ascending line we are sticking to like glue right now meets my down channel on June 6th at 92.20 SPY and thats the place I think the two will actually duke it out, since I think we go down tomorrow.
Thats the second spot on my chart I will be watching for a reversal to occur, and by then that may also be where we meet up with the 200 SMA
**** June 3rd is the second spot sorry for the error
“The ascending line we are sticking to like glue right now meets my down channel on June 6th at 92.20 SPY and thats the place I think the two will actually duke it out, since I think we go down tomorrow”.
Gee? I think I can find this statement stated several times already on this blog, all I have to do is go back and find the date (June 6, May 6, April 6).
No wonder everyone is so frustrated here, all you guys ever do is predict the fall that never comes. Won’t it be exciting when the DOW hits 8700!
and all you do is suggest stupid ‘pump and dump’ stocks. CYCC….common.
~
Hummmm, pump and dump? Not quite take a look at the 2 month chart on it my friend. I bought it @ .60 and it was up 27% just today. You might want to keep your eye on this one rather then continually bet that the market is going to collapse all the time.
Dude I play the moves both ways, but it is also smart to try to analyze what the market might be sau=ying to gain an advantage.
If you will notice I said “confirm the reversal” and will be “watching” for the other spot, I didn’t say that I was going to dive in blindly at either target. I also make no claim as to how far I think we will go down, only that we will go down.
When you have something to actually contribute in a positive way that might actually help someone then please do so, otherwise kiss my ass!
*** saying not sau=ying . . .. I know didn’t type that LOL!
Yo dude, ya gotta chill man, i’m only tryin to help out a few of the other dudes on here, you know man, the dudes that might want to buy a stock that actually goes up and makes them some coin. Hey man, be cool.
I agree. The analysis here is good but it has a bearish bias. Lately Idan has been more analytical & cautious which is good.
All that’s left is the 200dMA on the DJI and SP. In fact we already crossed the 200dMA on the Nasdaq and the TSX.
Bearish bias? Let’s see, figuring it will RISE to certain targets, then reverse.
Thats not bearish or bullish biased, its both.
And you are an idiot, if not 100%, then for sure you are at leased biased to the idiotic side.
I’m sorry if I have offended you. It was just a general statement.
I’ve read a general amount of posts on ST for the past 3 months.
The ratio of people posting TA to go short is more than the amount of people posting TA to go long.
That is all I’m getting at..
Is that not a bias towards one side?
Sorry zee, “What a bunch of Bull” is the idiot, not you. Didn’t mean to seemingly include the two as a continuous statement.
No Christopher I am not the idiot you are. ST does in fact have a negative bias, its been that way since the bounce off of the March lows. Before that it was good analysis but after the March low it started to have tunnel vision and leaned harder and harder on the bear side expecting the correction that never came. Many on this board lost a lot of money expecting that correction and the longer it went on, the more it was expected and the more people lost. Can you imagine how much money would have been made if they had gone totally Bullish at that bottom? The channel was up…straight up, but everyone here was so convinced that it was going to break to the downside that each day the charts were redrawn and the breakdown was stated to be happening tomorrow.
I can’t wait until we hit 200 SMA (drools)……..
me 2.
“These people will get trapped once the market falls lower. Tomorrow the 200 SMA will be under 930… this means that we won’t be making a double top in markets anymore…”
This statement assumes that we will not break through the 200 SMA. I’m not sure that is a safe assumption.
Tomorrow’s forecast:
http://tradingtheodds.wordpress.com
Any kind of weakness at or shortly after the open might provide a favorable (short-term and intraday) buying opportunity (for tomorrow)
CNBC math dummies. Stated on ‘Fast Money’ that the S&P is up 12% since March lows”.
Sheesh… low 666, Now 906 906-666=240 pts. up
240 pts IS the up move off the low OF 666. Math Rule: “divide the IS by the OF” (lol)
240 div by 666 =36%. I sent them an email.
GS must have sent them a typo on their daily memo
Missed the last couple hours. Interesting the only thing I was stopped out of was a few FAS puts.
On to the EOM. Homework to do.
I came across a great site http://thinkingtrades.com , simple but very effective trading
Food for thought:
http://europac.net/voicesframeset.asp?id=43
By Monday GM will file for bankruptcy. I think this will come out as a positive:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=top_news&sid=a26dHH0N6LvY
What I’m wondering is why North Korea seems to be so ignored in the news. They declared the 1959 truce to be over with from what I read in the paper. Maybe satellites aren’t showing troop movements or any sign of imminent war yet. The other piece of news I found interesting was a statement from the elliott wave folks that stated wars often occur during this coming strong C wave we are expecting to happen sometime this year. I think our government is so busy trying to keep appearances up and stop everything from crashing that they are ignoring North Korea for the most part. They have an army of over one million I thought and just demonstrated they have strong nukes. Maybe we don’t need to worry, it may take a few months before they can demostrate that they can nuke the west coast of the US. They may decide to nuke Japan first though. hmmm, on the other hand, maybe the bulls should be hyping this news, bad news seems to send the market up. GM bankruptcy, more suppliers should go next unless they are bailed out too.
At a minimum, I believe the bulls need at least a standard correction in this rally to draw in more bulls and go to significant new highs. I am in no way attempting to make suggestions but if North Korea really wants attention, their next step may be to test fire a long range missle that actually reaches the US. I can’t imagine that having a positive effect on the market. I thought I read the elliottwave folks also stated the C wave may be the biggest stock market crash in 300 years.
Disclaimer: I am in a short position and I just read that people with stress have higher cortisol levels and are more likely to want to sell stocks. In my opinion there should be enough stress causing news to create a small sell off. If the news is manipulated by the government, this might be why a GM bankruptcy is touted as good news and North Korea is hardly even mentioned. As soon as news outlets start talking about all the bad news, the big players are probably in short positions. Just my opinion.
For humanity’s sake, let’s pray there is no war. Are you the bear who wished H1N1 became a pandemic so the market could drop? Common. “I read the elliottwave folks also stated the C wave may be the biggest stock market crash in 300 years”. LOL, I’m sorry this just seems very speculative, where did you read this? We haven’t even touched 870s in a month.
And I am curious to know what is the 1st biggest crash that happned 301+ years ago. Also, GM’s bankruptcy has been priced in the market for quite some time. You sound like a bear trying to find any negative information and use it to support your idea for a drop.
Enough with the manipulation comments. We’ve heard it a zillion times.
“I am in a short position and I just read that people with stress have higher cortisol levels and are more likely to want to sell stocks. In my opinion there should be enough stress causing news to create a small sell off”. This is really funny. I’m laughing because the bears are trying to come up with any argument to go short.
I don’t think “bears are trying to come up with any argument to go short”. They don’t have to. All they need to do is look at the world rationally.
I actually went long at 666 or just a tad above. Unfortunately I sold my FAS I bought at that time a lot earlier and didn’t hold on until it reached much higher values. I’m still learning. I see a large decline in this overbought market coming and was specualating on what it might be like and sharing some comments from the elliottwave international folks. I thought that was ok. I’m not sure where they got their comments about the possibility of the biggest stock crash in 300 years. Of course at the time a few months ago, I didn’t realize the main sponsor of the site went short at the market top and then sold his position at 750. That leads me to believe he has insight into the overall market patterns at http://www.elliottwave.com. I go long or short depending upon which way I think the market will go. Does that make me a bull with bear feet if I went long at 666 but just recently went short? Unfortunately I tried to go for a home run and lost most of my gains this year. Mistakes made lessons learned. I was speculating on what a large down wave may be like. By the way, I was long when the H1N1 flu scare was out. I posted on a different site I thought it was overblown. Maybe I should keep my comments to myself. I think I will for the most part. The flu scare didn’t affect the market as I thought it wouldn’t. I won’t post too many comments here anymore. I see I only get negative responses for posting what I think will eventually happen. Not necessarily war but a reckoning in the markets, maybe this fall or late summer, I want to participate more in the rally if it continues.
No where in my post did I say I wished for war. I was simply sharing information from another site that major C waves sometimes are associated with wars. I can see how the two things might coincide. By the way I went long in stocks after the market hit 666.79. I knew it was my lucky number for reasons I won’t post here. Made 41 percent in FAS but I could have made about 500 percent. Then blew my gains trying to go for a home run playing the opposite. I’m learning here. I was also long and sold out at the more recent market top back around a week or two ago. I guess I left out all that information. I’m only learning here and thought I would share my thoughts after market hours. Ok, enough said, I’ll stay mostly quiet in the future.
Ok, one last comment, the cortisol comment was restated verbage I read somewhere probably marketwatch.com about hormones playing a role in your trading. High testorone levels make you stay in stocks possibly longer or make you more aggressive buying, high stress and cortisol levels make you sell and not necessarily at the best time I believe was the jest of the article. It may have been on CNBC.com instead. Actually I’m about 75 percent sure it was.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/05/making-sense-of-current-stock-market.html
UNG – I saw it in the discussion earlier today and I know that TK over at the slope is bullish on it. Looked at it more in depth tonight and in my opinion it is at a critical point of breaking out. Very nice vol on the move up. On the 3 month daily the 20 just crossed up through the 50. Also, what isn’t shown here on the 3 Month daily is that the VWAP (need to import it into my prophet charts) is also right above in the same area as the moving averages.
If UNG can capture this area I think it has some room to run but wouldn’t be surprised to see a little pullback with so many averages right above it on the daily chart. A healthy pullback to 14 to 14.50 to the MA on the hourly would likely make me a buyer or a breakout above the daily MA’s with a backtest.
http://www.screencast.com/users/ckeltner/folders/Jing/media/2fcca645-90c8-4d6a-9855-f3a0416251d4