1:37pm
H&S now in play on the 5 minute SPY, with a target of 90.80. The key aspect to learn from today’s action (if it remains this way), is that the volume is on the bear’s side and not on the bulls. I continue to remain increasingly bearish, as financials continue to lag the market.
12:36pm
Added 5% more in FAZ, and 5% in SPY July PUTS 89$ and 85 strike
12:26pm
This market is trading in an ascending wedge on the 10 minute or 5 minute yet again, on light volume. This makes this rally fake yet again, I’m looking to add shorts anytime the support breaks or we hit 78.6 % retrace of the move lower at 91.83-85
11:28pm (tuesday)
Futures remain flat as of now, I will be gone in the morning but you guys are always welcome to email me at ik13@duke.edu, and i’ll try to reply every once in a while from my smart phone.
Holding short overnight. TBT was my 5-star of the day. EBAY VZ not so much. QID GLD calls, FAS puts room to run. Plenty of power dry. Have a good night. Martini time soon.
No stick save. Empty net
I think that is reasonably safe. If this is 3 of 3 then we should get one more leg down tomorrow.
TBT and TMV are juicy trades this past week…great call….how much more upside in short term?
next time we all should load up on future dips and sell after Treasury auctions…
TBT was good this week. I buy right before 1:00 and sell when the shouting is over an hour later or so. But….I have been burned on that gamble also. Ya never know.
—- ooooooooooooooooooooooooo OMINOUS ——– IBOC on sale $10.99
Can anyone explain to me what happened today?
We climbed 1% on QQQQ then dropped 3% from there.
Obamanomics not working. And the market knows it.
I think the same as what’s been happening the last 3 weeks.. we were all enjoying the fake rally once again (shown by smaller volume) because of the ‘great consumer confidence report’ and once we saw signs of people selling off, everyone sold off right away because we all know the fundamentals still suck
EOM Trap then Crap…
Pretty crazy action in the fixed income market today.
Mortgage rates have moved from 4.8% last week to 5.25% today.
Not a good development for those hoping to move that excess supply of houses.
Karl Denninger does an excellent summary.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1066-It-Is-Failing-ALL-OF-IT.html
Back under the 20dma.
Lower volume than yesterday.
——— GBT ——– 3 OF 3
1 . 913 to 898
2. 898 to 903
3. 903 to 878 ??
is dat what you are talking about?
That’s it. But the interventionists laid hands on today (can you feel the power?). They could have converted the 3 of 3 into 5 in the last hour.
Dr J tweets: @ca74 I think Jeff Macke has probably done his last Fast Money show. If you miss him tune into my radio show Friday. http://bit.ly/FqeKW
He seemed to always clash with the other traders, including Dylan Rattigan when he used to be there.
But like Dylan, he wasn’t a rah rah company man. He hated Goldman Suchs and knew what was going on.
There was also very visible tension between him and Melissa at first. No, he was certainly not a company man. Jeff does not suffer fools easily. That’s what I like about him.
Somehow my account (DBA, FAZ, GLD, TBT, USO, and VTI) was green both yesterday and today!
WAY TO GO! im borderline collapsing from lack of sleep due to worry about my girl’s future. however, im up more paper money and for now that can buy food:)
From Accrossthecurve.com:
This has been another historic day in the bond market and I thank the myriad of folks who commented.
How about some closing levels for the record:
The yield on the 2 year note increased 2 basis points to 0.97 percent. The yield on the 3 year note climbed 3 basis points to 1,49 percent. The yield on the 5 year note soared 11 basis points to 2.41 percent. The yield on the 10 year note catapulted 17 basis points higher to 3.72 percent. The yield on the bond rocketed 14 basis points to 4.63.
The 2year/10 year spread is a record 275 basis points.
The 2year/30 year spread is 366 basis points. The record on that is 369 on October 05 1992 at about 1130 AM. i am a very sick man!!!
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TBT and TMV both heading higher in AH…check out daily chart on TMV…WOW!
Futures down also
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
TLT resting above 12 month support 6/1/08 around $90.00…
TLT next support 23 month 7/1/07 around $85.00….
it’s paradoxical that the Tres/Fed and PPT would let the bond market bubble pop because credit costs go up for everybody (slows GDP growth) and some equity investors may move back into Fixed income for short term parking now that notes are paying near 2.5% up to 3.75%….that’s much better for savers too than TARP banks which pay .025% on money markets….thus reducing bank deposits again…if however they are worried about real inflation and are allowing yields to increase to slow down money volocity then what happened to the recession we were all worried about? (strange to understand)
TLT now catching a bid in AH…5:47pm (Go USSA!)
April 29, 2009:Direxion Funds of Boston has just introduced four new ETFs that use triple leverage. The new funds are linked to NYSE Current U.S. Treasury Indexes and their annual expense ratios are 0.95 percent.
The funds are as follows:
–Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares (TYD)
–Direxion Daily 10-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TYO)
–Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares (TMF)
–Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TMV)
TYO (10yrbear) did not perform as well today as TMV(30yrbear)…fyi
Thanks. Epic.
See Karl Denninger’s post regarding this action:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1066-It-Is-Failing-ALL-OF-IT.html
sad but true…thanks
the only place “real productivity” seems to be manufactured is in China…
the math is simple…if we don’t increase savings which flows into long term investments which generates real growth of GDP with Jobs then we will have to borrow in order to keep spending which leads to currency devaluation and thus the further withdrawl of investment capital until we become slaves to our new masters….the Chinese…
Whoa! “You saw that right – the 30/fixed is now being quoted at 6.5%, up nearly 30% in one day.”
The rate came back a bit, but it went from 4.8 last week to at least 5.25 today. This is not helpful in moving the glut of supply on the market.
This could be the beginning of the great swan dive into wave 5 and we coul dbe witness to it. I have no illusions about the PPT coming with both guns blazing tomorrow, but today we saw just how fast this paper mache menagerie of fake money can melt down. I haven’t read the Denninger article yet (I’ll do that next) but I can tell from the title what he thinks.
5:00 PM Yield on the 10-year note jumps to 3.7%, which suggests 30-year mortgage rates are headed back to the 5.6% area. Or is that 6.5%? Today? Ever been to a public pool when someone notices something floating in the water that shouldn’t be?
seekingalpha.com
Nice analogy.
I like this chart
http://i39.tinypic.com/xnuvqp.jpg
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
i like to today’s trading from Idan.
my take on the market is that we have a lot more downside in this wave
check it out: rollinglines.blogspot.com