12:09pm
Pennant formation on the ES right now, we entered that pennant in thursdays trading, and the support lies started 880 and is slightly ascending (now its at 881.50). The resistance is at 893 and is descending. A break of the support would yield a move of 923.50-900 = 23.50 points down.
Hey guys, markets are closed today in observance for memorial day, however you guys are welcome to discuss any topics down here:
9:45pm Sunday.
Futures are open, despite the markets being closed. In early action we saw a relatively nice rally up about 0.5% to form a right shoulder on the 5 minute ES, which completes a Head and Shoulders formation over the last 2 days of futures trading. Strong volume to the downside should be expected very soon, although a break 895 has to be looked at as bullish.
Credibility Default Swap
Obama: The best pitchman Goldman Sachs ever had
http://buffalobeast.com/136/Credibility%20Default.html
I voted for Mr Change. Hah. Joke’s on me.
This is a great article.
That said it wouldn’t have made a shred of difference if we’d put McSame in office.
Tell yourself that if it makes you feel better.
Valerie:
Let’s look at the record:
1. Economics: Bush-Keynesian Obama-Keynesian
2. War – Bush-All in Obama-All In
3. Gitmo – Bush-Torture Obama-Don’t Torture, no wait, Torture
The only difference I see is that Obama says the politically correct thing whereas Bush never did. In terms of action, I haven’t even noticed the change of administrations, except of course that your guy is very good with the teleprompter, usually, anyways.
If
Touche.
Maybe we need to accept a president is actually a pawn with little to no say other than what the monitor tells them to say.
Heckuva Job, Ben
China warns Federal Reserve over ‘printing money’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379285/China-warns-Federal-Reserve-over-printing-money.html
Since the rapacious Timmay “The Sleaze” Geithner has run out of people to steal from (the Arabs, the Chinese, The American taxpayer) he has only one option left. He should look to steal from himself. Yes that should do nicely.
Do you just get the feeling that a Black Swan event is inevitably going to happen in the near future? What will it be? Which one will happen first?
A) Iran obliterates Israel
B) North Korea nukes South Korea
C) England and/or Ireland go the Iceland route of collapse
D) Our big banks finally announced and proven to be insolvent
E) Other ______________________________________
I think there is more chance that israel obliterates iran.. but, yeah one of these things will happen soon enough (in the next 10 years).
Good point Idan. I should have just stated “conflict comes to a head between Iran and Israel”
Fifty-one percent support an immediate Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, while 49 percent believe the Jewish state should await the outcome of efforts by the US administration to engage with the Islamic republic, said the survey published by Tel Aviv University.
But 74 percent of those questioned said they believe that new US President Barack Obama’s efforts will not stop the Islamic republic from acquiring atomic weapons.
http://rawstory.com/08/news/2009/05/24/poll-51-percent-of-israelis-want-immediate-attack-on-iran/
It’s going to happen a lot sooner than 10 years and probably within 12 months. The new leadership in Israel are a lot more proactive than the previous one. They gave Obama 6 months to deal with Iran. Once those 6 months are up Israel could attack the Nuclear Sites at anytime. Israel may attack just one site to prove they are serious and then see what Iran’s response will be. This is just not an Israel issue either as many countries in the Middle East would like to see Iran’s Nuclear Program eliminated. If Iran’s Nuclear program is completed you will see every country in the Middle East develop their own programs as well in the coming years.
B)
SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea conducted a second nuclear test Monday that was far more powerful than its first one, triggering an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on the hermit state’s defiant act, but financial markets wobbled only briefly on the news.
Russia, which also called the test a threat to regional security, said the blast was about equal in power to the U.S. atom bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Nagasaki in World War Two.
Ratcheting up tensions further, North Korea test-fired three short-range missiles just hours later, Yonhap news agency said.
E) Other
The US Treasury is facing an ordeal by fire this week as it tries to sell $100bn (£62bn) of bonds to a deeply sceptical market amid growing fears of a sovereign bond crisis in the Anglo-Saxon world.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5379733/US-bonds-sale-faces-market-resistance.html
GM Watch
All three bids for General Motors Corp.’s Opel unit have shortcomings and a bankruptcy filing might still be a better option, Germany’s economy minister was quoted as saying Sunday.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bids-for-opel-fall-short-minister/article1150882/
————- TKO.TO ———- canadian markets are open and i just went long this stock at $1.71. this is a mining company north of where i live. during the good times they constantly looked at ways to lower production costs for copper mining. they also took thier profitable ways and acquired more mining properties including a gold prospect.
was going to buy this one at a $1.20 … but shyd away. wooops.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tko.to
50% retrace from high to low is : $3.49
33% is : $2.55 (im getting out of 2/3 here if it can run again)
limit loss is a close below $1.50 …….. make sense? 1500 shares to start
You going to be calling your trades all day while the rest of us can only watch the futures and ponder this admin’s sleazy ways? Pouring and I do mean dumping rain up here today so I can’t even get out and harass the horses. Sheesh. Tell me what’s fair in life.
my momma told me that life isn’t fair and just this year i started to believe her:)
here is the weather here: but feels warmer
8:47 am 50f and sunny
afternoon 68f and possible thunder showers later today
later this week: 80f and sunny
live close to the only desert in Canada and home of the BC Fruit Growers.
all the trees are in blossom and Cherries are ripe at end of June.
Cherries, Peaches, Apples, Pears and lotsa other nummy stuff
scroll down to the long range forecast for our region on this page
double the amount and add 20 for a rough F reading. our temps are C
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/cabc0312
here is a nice slide show of our region. on one side of the lake is broom brush and golden desert grass. on the other side of the lake are mountains and tall pine trees. we live on the treed side… more shade
http://www.digitaldean.com/index.php/gallery/portfolio1/landscape/Okanagan/60/
maybe ill take a photo from our Kitchen…but then you would really feel like life aint fair. cant do it today..camera is at the store.
So happy for you. 1030 PM my time and still raining. Webs growing between my and the dogs’ toes. Horses in foul moods cause they are wet wet wet.
AMG Data Services reported that for the period ending 05/21/09 equity funds less ETF activity had inflows of $810 million compared to inflows of $8.8 billion the previous week.
source:Schwab.Marketedge.Com
Happy Memorial Day to all and GLT this week…
I pay $15 a month for this data and all i do is second guess them mainly because they have been bullish since December.2008…here’s a sample:
Market Posture: The CTI and Sentiment Indexes remain in bullish ground while the Momentum Index is neutral. The Market Posture, bullish since the week ending 12/19/08 (DJIA 8579.11) remains positive at this time
Summary: The technical condition of the market remained in good shape last week as evidenced by the by the stability in the Momentum Index while the Strength Indexes held their own.
Despite a positive week for most of the major averages, several negatives have begun to surface which could signal that the bulls are running out of gas. None of the major indexes were able to close above their recovery highs which were recorded earlier in the month. Also, the 14-day RSI indicator dropped to its mid-point of 50 this week for most of the majors. This momentum indicator has remained above 50 since early March 2009. A drop below 40 would signal a loss of upward momentum and be a short-term negative for stocks. Thursday also saw several averages close below the mid point of the Bollinger Bands which usually signals a change in the short-term trend. Both of these indicators can be plotted below the graphs in the Market Edge ‘Smart Chart’ module.
On the positive side, the DJIA, NASDAQ and the S&P 500 held above their respective lows which were recorded over the last two weeks. Also, most of the sell offs that have taken place over the last couple of weeks have seen late day reversals. This differs from earlier in the year when selling pressure increased heading into the close. Finally, most of the major averages were very overbought earlier in the month. This condition was reflected by very high stochastic readings and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average in the 82-88 percent range. Most of the majors have seen this condition worked off over the last couple of weeks. So while some negatives are on the horizon, the majority of indicators continue to suggest that the rally off the March bottom has a way to go. The initial target for the DJIA, based on the 50% retracement of the January 2009 – March 2009 decline, remains at 9088.
source:Schwab.Marketedge.com
E) Other
Thirty thousand people in Britain are likely to have been already infected by swine flu, one of the country’s leading authorities has told The Independent on Sunday. This would mean that the virus is 300 times more widespread than the Health Protection Agency (HPA) admits.
Yet the World Health Organisation (WHO) late last week changed its rules in order to avoid declaring that the flu has become a pandemic after pleas from governments, led by Britain.
He also thinks that some 100,000 people will have been infected in the US – the same number as is being privately estimated by experts at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – and another 30,000 in Japan, where swine flu was spreading rapidly last week.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-wellbeing/health-news/uk-swine-flu-toll-is-really-30000-says-leading-scientist-1690130.html
Still don’t understand why that would be a big deal. It’s a mild form of the flu people need to stop freaking out.
Arctic, that’s true and it did get blown out of proportion at the beginning. But the reason it’s still a news item and area of concern is the fact that there isn’t a vaccine yet. So the fear is it gets out of control before it can be widely treated.
Interesting tidbit… this time, older folks may have some immunities to it. It’s very similar to a strain that was around until 1957.
http://hometestingblog.testcountry.com/?p=2259
The estimeed Marc Faber expects a correction (he says 90% of stocks are above their 50 day moving average, a sign of overbought condition):
http://www.in.com/active18/watchnow/watchvideo_mc.php?autono=398764
That guy’s TA is very sensible.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1132411696&play=1
PAPER MONEY WILL BECOME WORTHLESS. Peter and Marc should do lunch
Those are very low percentages of the populations. Get back to me when it reaches even 10%, which it won’t.
——— MFI.TO —– one to watch. watching for a targeted retrace to $9.15 to go short
take a look at the weekly chart and the perfectly formed bearish pennant. a move to
$9.15 would pierce the 40 week moving average and be a nice fake out before volume
moves in and this stock takes its next plunge into depths not seen before. i wish. hey,
i just call what i see and hope it goes my way. im not evil… no not me!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?MFI.TO
traded for small profit the whip at the begginning of this
weekly bear formation. not it is really tightening up.
large meat processor in canada with a focus on pork products.
——- WFT.TO ———- slowly but surely moving to my cover target for 1/3 of position. im looking for $28.85 and their is zero volume at the current level
im watching few bids come in and the asks slowly lowering expectations.
maybe i even get this first cover today.
really starting to rollover but some volume needs to come in soon to confirm
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wft.to
lowered my BID…. in the first 2 hours jack squat was traded and now some sellers have arrived. may just crack today.
scratch that “volume” is entering idea. the average trade in this stock is very light at around 70,000 shares per day. 3,700 shares have traded today with one hour left in trading. clearly this stock has not found market price.
DR. DOOM says that America has become a Banana Republic. this guy does not know what he is talking about. what a dork! strong economies are built on bubbles. my daughter loves bubbles. she loves bubble baths. and when she is older will enjoy bubble gum. so Dr. Gloomy ,,, seems you have a bad case of the sniffles… is that DOOMITIS i detect?
1. Tech Bubble. everyone had fun at that party. what’s the problem
2. Housing Bubble. this one is ending just fine. it was a great time too.
3. Bond Bubble. without this what are we going to talk about. huh?
there you go then. bubbles good and fun to talk about. so just stop. no problemo. we can just make another bubble! maybe a car that runs on champagne?
Just a thought on this beautiful Memorial day in Idaho……..With this week’s treasury auction looking somewhat iffy at this point, one could surmise that it would be in the best interest of the treasury to allow the stock market to be taken down in order to encourage investment in treasuries at this critical time. Anyone else think that this is a possibility?
Good thinking Cotton.
That’s a real good possibility. If you believe the PPT has been pumping the stock market to benefit the bank stock secondary offerings, as I do, what you say is probable. Once the treasury auction is completed the PPT will go back to pumping stocks, or at least, try to.
makes sense Cotton.
MORE MAINSTREAM TALKING PAST TENSE…… dont take your money out now. the bear market is over people. just take some lessons and once the SP500 hits 1200 re-consider taking on too much risk as the market heads higher
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/25/pf/bear_market.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2009052511
funniest thing in this article “The symptoms: nausea” is what i feel reading it.
It won’t be iffy , the gov will buy up whatever the rest of the world doesn’t. The headlines will read “Treasuries auctions get fully subscribed , US debt still desired” , and they will ignore completely the fact that 50% gets bought by the fed monitizing our debt.
But yes I don’t put it past them to let the market slide to increase movement into treasuries.
continued weakness of Dollar and Treasuries reflect negative sentiments toward the US economy and therefore could presure Equities markets, so it seems that the Fed/Treasury focus will expand from “stock marketing” to how the “Stimulus”
coupled with cutting out all that Government waste is “Really” working and it is working so well that the Government may extend the GM deadline until after this week’s auction….grin…
The Canadian Financials are up about 2% today, partly because of bank earnings being released this week in Canada.
Bank of Montreal (TSX: BMO.TO), which reports on Tuesday, up 78 cents to $41.65.
CIBC (TSX: CM.TO), Scotiabank (TSX: BNS.TO) and TD Bank (TSX: TD.TO) report Thursday while Royal Bank (TSX: RY.TO) issues earnings on Friday. All four banks were up more than one per cent.
the volume today in Canada is beyond pathetic. im in WFT.TO short and the avg trade is 70,000 per day. 3,600 today with one hour to go. dont put too much emphasis on what the TSX is doing today.
Wow, the volume was pathetic, I had to sell my bull US dollars because the BID/ASK was killing me and the US dollar was dropping again.
There’s a H&S for bears and strong trend support for bulls on XFN.TO (ETF of Canadian Financials) so we’ll see this week which side will win
BMO.TO failed to make new gains into the day was my reasoning to not go long (they’re reporting tomorrow), oddly some of the other financials rallied in the end of the day so I couldn’ go short either.
almost all day the bid on WFT was $29 and the ask $29.85 … 3% spread
Three events, one outcome.
1. Iran warships in international waters
2. N. Korea test.
3. isreal is done waiting.
The loss of inocent lives will be horrible.
If you are a prayer, here is a website I found. http://Www.prayat9.com
All part of the plan. Our lives will never be the same!
From Market Timing Cycles:
http://markettimingcycles.wordpress.com/category/weekly-preview/
The latest from McHugh:
We got a very small change in the McClellan Oscillator Friday, May 22nd, suggesting a large price move is coming early next week.
Stocks look like they completed wave 2-up of (C ) down, Friday. That suggests wave 3-down is about to start, and that leg should be a sharp move, as wave 3′s are usually the longest moves in a five wave sequence, and progress the move the most. The 30 minute Full Stochastics suggest prices should decline Tuesday. The 15 minute FS suggest prices could bounce, then fall. The laternate count allows for one more up leg for wave 2.
The Dow Industrials bounced into wave 2-up Friday, then after completion mid-day, fell 86.82 points, closing down 14.81 at 8,277.32. NYSE volume fell to 75 percent of its 10 day average in pre-holiday trading. Long weekend’s are interesting, as the close usually tells us whether the pros felt comfortable holding stocks over the weekend or not. They did not on Friday. Downside volume led at 60 percent, with declining issues leading at 52 percent, with upside points at 59 percent in mixed trading. S&P 500 Demand Power fell 4 points to 412, while Supply Pressure fell 1 point to 396, telling us the decline was due to retreating buyers.
Thursday’s sharp decline clarified the picture nicely. The alternate labeling we had been showing in the S&P 500 and Industrials is in fact occurring. This explains a lot of recent short-term price behavior, and gives a nice compass for the direction prices are headed next week, and then afterward. The VIX has generated a new “sell” signal.
Supercycle degree wave (A) down did in fact bottom at the March 6th lows. The recent rally into May 8th’s closing top is Cycle degree wave A up of an A-up, B-down, C-up for Supercycle degree wave (B) up. This means a declining correction has started here in May, wave B-down. The smaller moves since May 8th are (A) down, and (B) up. (B) up completed at our recent phi mate turn date, which turns out to be the closing top on May 18th at 8,504.08, two days prior to the ideal scheduled date of May 20th. It also was the intraday high for the countertrend rally from March 6th, making this phi mate turn an important top. So this should produce a decent decline here, perhaps to the 7,600 to 7,800ish area. This decline from May 18th is wave (C) down of B-down. This (C ) down move should be a five waver. We believe the first leg of (C ) down completed Thursday afternoon, May 21st. The second leg completed Friday. Wave 3 down likely started Friday afternoon, and should take most of next week to complete.
Once wave (C ) down of B-down finishes, there should be one last rally leg for this Bear Market Supercycle degree wave (B) up, one that lasts deep into the summer and hits upside targets from the Bullish Head & Shoulders patterns we’ve been showing each night. Then all hell should break loose. The Bullish Head & Shoulders patterns shown on page 23 suggest upside targets of 1,050ish in the S&P 500 and 9,700ish in the Industrials. Then catastrophic wave (C ) down gets started. Regardless of how or when we get there, once these upside levels are reached, we would move to a heavy cash position.
The only hope that a catastrophic wave (C ) can be avoided is if a huge multi-year sideways triangle is occurring, meaning the lows in prices have been reached, however in that case, upside potential is limited for another 4 to 6 years. A break below the March 6th lows would confirm catastrophic wave (C ) down is occurring, no triangle is forming, and a near total collapse of the economy is starting. Our feeling here, playing economist and not technician, is that unless the Central Planners figure out how to get hundreds of thousands of dollars into the hands of each and every household, without the source being some sort of loan, we are headed for trouble in this nation.
This weekend, at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com ,we again present the three large degree scenarios that are possible for this Grand Supercycle wave {IV} down Bear Market. The worst case scenario is a cataclysmic wave (C ) down Zigzag. The best scenario would be a huge Triangle, meaning the March 6th lows will hold, however a massive sideways move would follow during the next 4 years or so, meaning the recession/depression would not leave any time soon.
There haven’t been any Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signals in a while, however we would not be surprised if one develops later this summer as wave (B) up draws to conclusion. We’ll follow that carefully and of course report it. We did get them at the start of wave (A) down, so it would make sense to see another at the start of wave (C ) down. If we don’t get one, it likely means Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down is not forming a zig-zag, but rather a more benign triangle or flat.
Treasury Bonds have bottomed, and should rally for a while. Pattern, the RSI readings, and the Full Stochastics suggest this.
Silver, Gold, and the HUI are topping short-term, but within a longer term rising trend. The HUI looks to be completing a Rising Bearish Wedge. The Dollar is bottoming very short-term, but the rise will be limited, and then the Dollar should plunge. Oil is topping very short-term from a Rising Bearish Wedge.
The Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicators remain on an enter long position signal Friday, but continue to converge, which is Bearish. Friday’s McClellan Oscillator had a small rise to negative -88.06. The Summation Index fell to positive + 4,307.07. High readings in the Summation Index are often found in the middle of strong rally trends, which was the case throughout 2006 and early 2007, meaning this present decline should be corrective, within a larger degree rising trend. NYSE New Highs were 7, with New Lows at 2.
The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average fell to 50.00 from 66.67. The percent above 10 day rose to 26.67 from 20.00. The percent above 5 day fell to 13.33 from 26.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator fell sharply to negative -196.9, triggering a new “sell” signal March 22nd, when it fell below the negative -120.00 threshold necessary for a new “sell.” A drop below negative -120.00 will generate a new sell signal.
Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) remain on a “sideways” signal Friday. The Plunge Protection Team Risk Indicator fell to negative -0.38, Friday, May 22nd, remaining on a sell signal.
The NASDAQ 100 fell 4.22 points Friday, closing at 1,363.17. The Russell 2000 fell 3.61 points Friday, closing at 477.61. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 5.48 points Friday, closing at 379.15. June Gold rose to 957.0. Silver fell to 14.675, while July Oil rose to 61.63. The Dollar fell 0.52 to 80.03. Bonds fell a point to 119^10. The VIX rose 1.28 to 32.63.
cottonman57,Is market Timing Cycles very accurate?I subscribe to McHugh but never heard of MTC.McHughsays we should bottom in about 2 weeks then rally to as high as 10k dow and 1050-1100 S&P before we crash this fall.He also has a weekend interview on financialsense.com
Just started following them in the past few weeks. So far so good, but we’ll need more time to make a fair determination.
how often have we seen a 10 day trading cycle? this does not seem right. all the trading cycles have been much longer. someone posted an INO BROADCAST and if you watch that it makes a bit more sense. not much time left to decide.
im looking at staying short to 750-80 area and then taking both long and short positions there and day trading the upside if it comes. for now im short unless we bust up through 910 and confirm with another close above that level. if this happens before we cut through 800 i’ll have a hissy fit and go long.
From short 750 to long 1100?; a stairway to heaven?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7P9j7jwvJQ
great guitar. if we dont all go crazy by the end of this mess i’ll be amazed. im feeling this whipsaw crapshoot market may just be here to stay until something we never want to see happen…. happens.
Thanks
I think we’ll start a downward zig-zag since the DJI has tested and backed-off the primary downtrend line:
http://www.tz-trading.blogspot.com/
For the SRS-ers among us.
The first article in today’s Automatic Earth blog talks commercial real estate’s demise and defaults of prime mortgages. No rosy glasses here.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
OHH I am amazed with it. It is a good thing for my search on the net. Thanks. ^_^