Intraday Commentary ~ 05/14/2009

By
FocalEquity
– May 14, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

4:02pm
Amazing day in terms of intraday trading, and I’m already about 13% short the market for a break of the ascending trendline, though a continuation of the move higher is possible tomorrow. Video should be out by around 8 ish..  

3:54pm
Adding a little bit to my shorts here at 89.80, for a potential head and shoulders which might unfold into tomorrow.. 

3:38pm
Took a very small shot at some LONG here at 89.40$, to cover at 89.60$.   STOP under 89.30.

3:33pm
Potential strong H&S forming here on the SPY 10 minute, with the left shoulder at the peak of 12.36pm, and the head at 2:45ish .
 

3:30pm
Got stop lossed, a break of the 1 minute SPY 200 SMA will be significant as it has held this market up all day, going short on this break looks like a good trade.  

3:24
The last 20 minutes on the SPY could be a bull flag and it’s breaking out now.. i’ll be taking a nice long position to a double top area..  stop under the 50% retracement of the last 1 hour move higher which is 89.72$. 

3:21pm
Take a look at GS descending channel formation, it could potentially be a bull flag, but I recommend playing the channel for itself… Go short at the top, and cover at the bottom, also cover if we hit the ascending longer term blue line.
gs
 

3:15pm
I’m taking some profits out here to lower my position size here, today’s profit has been beyond 5% for 20% of the portfolio, so 1% total.  

3:03pm
Potential head and shoulders now forming on the 1 minute, it’ll be intresting to see whether this actually completes or if we move up to test the red line… 

2:40pm
Touching 50% retracement, i’m adding some shorts up here..  

2:15pm
10 MIN SPY CANDLE view of the desk: SPY may want to test red line if 50% retrace is broken to the upside. 
spx1 

1:28pm
Gotta love the action here on the SPY PUTS, you’re getting an increase in price here of 2-3 cents on some of the options despite a bounce of 0.10$ on the SPY, more people want to be going into the puts here it seems.  

1:25pm

SPY will be forming a head and shoulders formation as we find some support at 89.33 which is a 38.2% retracement of the move higher, a small little bounce on low volume will be great for shorts.  

1:20pm
look for a potential bounce around 89.40$ as the market on the 1 minute is oversold and 89,40 is some support, use retracements of that move from the highs to 89.40 to go short.  

1:15pm
H&S now in play on the 1 minute or 5 minute SPY, rememeber that support of the channel has now risen towards 885 ish.  

12:40pm
Strong down candle on the 1 minute SPY, and we might be forming a head and shoulders here, with the neckline at the 23.6% retracement around 89.60$ 

12:35pm
89.97$ is a 50% retracement of the last move lower (from the end of tuesday), I wanted to point out that it is also options expiration week for those of you who forgot, all my trades are of very low sizes. 

12:29pm
It seems like the market is still not finding any resistance at the 23.6% retracement, we are trading above it and found it as support. Now we have a potential bull flag, a break of 23.6% to the downside will yeild heavy selling, otherwise look for a move to 89.80$.  

12:11pm
50% sits at 90$, I got stop lossed from my MAY PUTS, will put it back up at the 200 SMA 5 minute if we touch it, it sits at 89.84$ but is desscending…  

12:05pm
I put JUNE SPY PUTS ON, and MAY SPY PUTS. The June ones are there to stay hopefully until 875, and the MAY ones are there for an intraday trade… a stop is placed above 89.80$.  

11:53am
last 25 minutes has shown another potential bull flag formation on the 5 and 10 min, this could take us to 81.60$. 

11:24am
89.60$ is not only the 23.6% retracement of the move lower, it also coincides perfectly with the 38.2% retracement of yesterdays move lower, so going short there with a tight stop is a good trade no matter what.  

10:46am
10 minute SPY looks like a bull flag..  

10:42am
Market reversed at 89.32$, i wasn’t fast enough to take profits here, and got stopped out with a 2% loss (using options).  38.2% retracement is being hit yet again at 88.93$, 50% is 88.85 and 61.8% is 88.77$. 

10:35am
We had a move lower to touch the 38.2% retracement of the bounce from the open, once we hit that we had a nice rally, it looks like we will try to get up tot hat 89.40$ again, I added some calls yet again with a tight stop. Resistance is at 89.20-25, but a break of that will rally us to the 89.40$ level.  

10:20am
Took slight pofirts at 0.96/contract because there was a head and shoulders forming on the 1 minute but you could still play it if you’d like.  

10:10am
TRADE: LONG SPY CALLS SWG EL at 0.92,  looking to sell as we reach 89.40$, stop at 88.95

9:59am
Very nice little fake out just below the channel, but again, I was thinking we needed to retrace, and the fakeout ended right at the double bottom (in late yesterdays action) at 88.50$ on the SPY, any break below that should be considered a sure break of the channel. Even though the break will probably come higher next time we test it.  

9:35am
Market bounces very nicely off of the support of the channel, and thus we see the indexes surprisingly higher despite poor jobless claims that were unexpected. This market needed some consolidation on the way down, and today might be the day that it will obtain that consolidation. That said, great shorting places are at the 23.6 and 31.8% fibonacci retracements. 894 = 23.6%, 900.7 = 31.8%. A confirmed break of the channel will also be a great shorting opportunity at 883.47$ but it is ascending throughout the day.  

7:30pm (wednesday)
Hey guys,
I’m back and wanted to show you that today we ended really close to the support of the ascending channel. Now it’s hard to know exactly where the support is, because you can take different points and come up with different numbers, but it’s safe to say that the channel support is between 877 and 884.

The only way we can truly know, is by looking for a possible bounce that could occur into tomorrow. Wherever we bounce, we will assume that that’s our ascending support. Looking at the picture right now, i’m glad to see that my head and shoulders on the 60 minute came to a very nice completion (the one i pointed out 2 days ago). The target for that is  875$. 

Here’s a chart of the S&P: My guess would be to go short at the 23.6% retracement of the last move lower for a break of the ascending support, make sure you have stops on, because a move to the 31.8% or 50% or 61.8% or even another new move higher is possible, though less likely. If we fall below it tomorrow, stretch your fibonaccis to the lows and try and short at those levels. 875 being strong support. 
spx

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.