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11
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More useless observations based on some more lines drawn on S&P weekly chart.
- Prior to Mar 9, the market was down 8 out of 9 weeks
- From Mar 9, it is up for 8 out of 9 weeks to close at or near where it was 18 weeks ago. How is that for symmetry?
- Blue rising trendline and 941 are converging, neckline for a POTENTIAL inverse H&S all are converging.
- What next? potential sell off to 820 and then a bounce.
- Here is the chart:
Agreed – 830 to 799 pullback to form H&S then hopefully the target to end this rally will be very clear if all plays out.
May 11th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
And that target would be S&P 1200 ???
Yes, I can go along with the 1200 target for the SP 500……..in 2011.
Unfortunately bulls and bears will probably be equally depressed in this market until then. We may just “slog” sideways for 2 years. Thank god for leverage, it’s the only thing keeping some of us at the computer screen right now.
http://stock-market-club.blogspot.com
The reason why the charts are not working is because you are all expecting it to go down. You need to open your minds again and embrace the charts. You can put lines anywhere to make the charts interpret which way you want them to go. But remember real chartists don’t interpret the charts with what they want to see, the charts should interpret themselves.
You need to step back…look at a longer timeframe… for things to become clear. And all you stocktockers are expecting a retest and to go down further, but what if we are in a new bull market?? its a possibility, you should never discount these things, hence keep a open mind.
May 11th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
amen
May 11th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
bear markets end at 50 times earnings I guess..enjoy wave 3..its coming..embrace the horror
May 11th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
if u are a serious chartist, how can you squarely lookly at the monthly indices and say we are in the beginning of a bull market. U must be kidding me. Market the bounces 30-35% right off its low is just a dead cat bounce short cover rally. This thing didn’t even establishing a base yet.
May 11th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
IF it is forming an inverse h/s, that IS a base. A very bullish one, if indeed that were to play out.
May 12th, 2009 at 2:45 am
that is your opinion. not what the charts state.
I’m not the greatest technician, but I’m seeing the Slo Sto indicating an imminent break lower, though how far, how long, how fast is not of course clear to me. The bullish implication of an inverse H&S is something that I won’t bet on at this point.
The chart linked below compares the S&P 500 in this cycle to other bubble periods, including Nasdaq 2000, Nikkei 1989, and Dow 1929.
Data series +/- 1000 days from peak shown two ways: (1) peak = 1.0 and (2) 1000 days prior to peak = 1.0. The current cycle ramped over 25 years, not 1000 days. So a better comparison would show 25 years of data, not just 1000 days.
That said, current ~41% drop from peak is similar to Nikkei at similar point and less than other precedents. All precedents fell significantly (34-76% to the trough) from this point (398 days) in the cycle after the peak. In all three precedents, trough was 600-700 days after the peak. This cycle’s peak was October 9, 2007, which would project trough between November 2009-March 2010.
There is no free lunch. We are bound to repeat history when a bubble is created and the timing speak for itself.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/bubbles-compared-1?context=user
May 11th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
disclosurer: The above was sent to me from a friend….no credit taken.
Whitney
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1120084432&play=1
May 12th, 2009 at 5:07 am
Well put. This “rally” is just do to gov’t intervention, not organic growth. We’ve been wanting to short, based on the fundamentals, not because the gov’t is artificially pumping up these banks with printed money or whatever. Like she said retail investors are shut out. I’m in cash now. I’m no longer buying this. People are out of work. They’re not buying much. It’s a fake rally. When there is downside momentum, maybe soon, I will short, but who’s to say the gov’t isn’t going to do some artificial policies to prop up the market, not based on organic growth of companies.
buy a pieces of this:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=xly
May 11th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
I mean short it.
May 12th, 2009 at 5:11 am
Just be a little more patient. I would let the down trend be more confirmed. Another full day or 2 or down will be Yeah, it’s going down now. This chart looks like the whole market. Looks like its about to break, but let’s be patient for the full confirmation of a down trend. This is not a confirmation of a down trend IMO.
Mohan, are you saying we are still going to 941/943 before heading down?
May 12th, 2009 at 7:18 am
Probably not. If the top is defined by body of the candle (~930), instead of the shadow (941), I think we may have seen the top, for now.
May 12th, 2009 at 7:35 am
Interesting, i had looked at that cenario but didnt considered to use the 934.7 for the high (closer to the high 930.17 we had 08/05).
Last week i published (elsewhere) a chart similar to this one… and I was actually thinking that 943 (or close by) could be done around 18/05 to 20/05, which would make it more or less one year since we last visited the 200 SMA (19/05/08).
The green arrows was my original guess.
Anyway, thank you for your reply.
http://screencast.com/t/XtxavUSs
Am I seeing it correctly?
http://screencast.com/t/P8Zu2vUQJkJ