Fellow Traders,
Since Idan is not at his desk, I just wanted to notify you, that Idan did in fact, play the channel as he mentioned in his video. He went short around 906$, with a stop, right at the highs. So he will cover his shorts if we push higher to 908$. He says, that we are still in a bullish channel, and that means that any move lower, you should be taking profits very fast, until the support of the channel is broken. 907 on the S&P is longer term resistance, as it is both an ascending resistance if you take the lows from back of October and the intra-week lows from January. Most important it’s also a 38.2% retracement of the strong move down starting august, so this level is incredibly strong and you should be playing this short and not long, as the upside has been very extended. He did not comment strictly on the stress test, saying that if at all, the stress tests will provide some negative marks, but traders already know a lot of what is expected and therefore this could become a non-event. Idan says financials had an inverse head and shoulders that he pointed out last week on one of his videos, the break of 11.30$ provided a move higher, but there is very strong resistance in the upper 11.70s and 80s. GS breaking out the 136$ mark could be the key to go long financials yet again, but he expects weakness for the time being. Idan continues his conviction that a short here is more favorable than a long, but as long as we stay in the channel we can’t use huge positions to get short. A pull back in options expiration week is also very likely.
Best,
Steve M.
I agree, trading the channel without a bullish or bearish bias is and has been working very well for a while.
Thanks Steve
Why are the futures selling off so hard? Any big news? In the last hour futures went from pricing in 905 to now 896.
I have not seen anything. The Asian markets are mixed, net slightly up. The past several weeks the futures have not been indicative of the next day’s market action.
Yes – futures down hard suddenly – but again this may not signify anything.
http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/
They are saying BOA needs 34 billion
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5450C120090506
so many thing should have moved this market lower already but it could be this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30568421 or the number of firms raising capital through share sales dilluting the base. it’s amazing the market is here so we can not be amazed when it sells off.
Agree Richard. For me the question is just the opposite. Why haven’t the futures moved down hard in the last week?
EXPLAINATION OF THE “SECRET” BEHIN THE STRESS TESTS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXdsDxYnGkI&feature=PlayList&p=6A12C07EC027F4BD&index=1
could be the GM news.. 1-100 reversal split
GM news came out when AH was still open. Its the BOA news
and here I added on a hedge against a move up – bah
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Bank of America has been deemed to need an additional $34 billion in capital, according to the results of a government stress test, a source familiar with the results said on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5450C120090506
http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-america-needs-a-whopping-34-billion-2009-5
There was $10B rumor this weekend which BofA denied first thing Monday morning. I like it when these news agencies come up with a “source”.
The big banks already know where they stand in terms of stress test results and they have already placed their bets accordingly.
The market goes down when the bulls decide. They have decided.
Futures now recovering,down less than 1/2%
dead cat bounce (last print 892,75)
miss hearing from you idan
Ok, Sheetfaced, I hope you can read this post again. Trust me, Faz is going to $5.00 very soon. For sure, if you hold to all your share, can you take that pain, before it go back up to $15.00. Here is the thought, try to look at other stock. I have couple for you to check out. Again, do go not all in with your money. Just to test and trial. Keep that in mind, the main point is loose less and when you are right you win a lot. Ok, if you have a margin account for play money. Short BWLD, at around $39 ish. The stop lost on $45.00, that is 52 week high. Earnings came out last week. So you could just stay with it for a while for your short. If you want quick cash cover on $36.00. If it broke 36, it is going to at least 31. If you don’t have margin account and have IRA. There is one Speculated play it is “COIN” If it pulled back in the morning to about $1.65 buy it, and make sure it is pull back on low volume. I think this stock can go to at least 2.50, that is almost 40%. Again, do not use all your money, just try to get your winning feeling back, and also try not to hold these play over night. It is very volatile, and we are also very overbought for now. Good Luck! I hope you make some money, If not 40% at least 10% will you?
I think this is a good time to be in FAZ. But that’s just my opinion.
Successful trading all.
Sry, quick question if someone please answer
How does converting preferred shares into common raises capital?
TIA
I believe preferred shares are considered debt and common are equity so if you convert preferred to common you are decreasing the current ratio of debt to equity in the eyes of regulators. Don’t hold me to it but i think that is the thinking
Essentially. Preferred shares can have convertibility clauses built into them to begin with, but you can roughly view them as never-ending bonds, to a degree. if a firm is paying out a dividend at all, they will have to first pay out the ‘dividend’ to the preferred shares.
Buffett Sees Massive Inflation to Handle Staggering Debt
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/headlines/warren_buffett/2009/05/04/210480.html
US Home Prices Lost For A Generation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aiiT.sNeq2YQ&refer=home
Now that second headline should by now, I hope, not come as a surprise to anyone. Housing prices and CRE aren’t coming back in our lifetime. That’s what makes the price of SRS so ludicrous. But it is what it is. Eventually the market will correct and it will reflect the fair price.
I think housing prices have a looooong way to fall.
Didn’t see Cramer tonight, so not sure what his and the CNBS take is… but take a look at some of the headlines tonight. Sounds toppish to me…
Washington Post: “Stress Tests for Banks Yield Early Progress”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/05/AR2009050503229.html?hpid=topnews
NY Times:
“Bright Spot in Downturn: New Hiring Is Robust”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/business/economy/06hire.html?hp
“As Job Losses Slow, a Recovery Could Move In”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/business/economy/06leonhardt.html?hp
This fits with what Idian is saying.
Which one would you buy TNA or BGZ? Careful, this is a trick question.
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/
Daily Market ES Levels for May 6th from TradePilotPro: http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A25623
$SPX cash pivots for May 6th: http://www.mypivots.com/dn/?symbol=100
Bank Of America will need 34 billion more and GM going to one cent, is that enough to end this baseless bull market?