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	<title>Comments on: New Highs? Or, Blow off Top?</title>
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		<title>By: Daniel</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59870</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2009 03:21:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59870</guid>
		<description>Sorry, I did not recheck my writing.  I mean do not go all in with your money, sheetfaced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, I did not recheck my writing.  I mean do not go all in with your money, sheetfaced.</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59866</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2009 03:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59866</guid>
		<description>Ok, Sheetfaced, I hope you can read this post again.  Trust me, Faz is going to $5.00 very soon.  For sure, if you hold to all your share, can you take that pain, before it go back up to $15.00.  Here is the thought, try to look at other stock.  I have couple for you to check out.  Again, do go all in with your money.  Just to test and trial.  Keep that in mind,  the main point is loose less and when you are right you win a lot.  Ok, if you have a margin account for play money.  Short BWLD, at around $39 ish.  The stop lost on $45.00, that is 52 week high.  Earnings came out last week.  So you could just stay with it for a while for your short.  If you want quick cash cover on $36.00.  If it broke 36, it is going to at least 31.  If you don&#039;t have margin account and have IRA.  There is one Speculated play it is &quot;COIN&quot;  If it pulled back in the morning to about $1.65 buy it, and make sure it is pull back on low volume.  I think this stock can go to at least 2.50, that is almost 40%.  Again, do use all your money, just try to get your winning feeling back, and also try not to hold these play over night.  It is very volatile, and we are also very overbought for now.  Good Luck!  I hope you make some money, If not 40% at least 10%  will you?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, Sheetfaced, I hope you can read this post again.  Trust me, Faz is going to $5.00 very soon.  For sure, if you hold to all your share, can you take that pain, before it go back up to $15.00.  Here is the thought, try to look at other stock.  I have couple for you to check out.  Again, do go all in with your money.  Just to test and trial.  Keep that in mind,  the main point is loose less and when you are right you win a lot.  Ok, if you have a margin account for play money.  Short BWLD, at around $39 ish.  The stop lost on $45.00, that is 52 week high.  Earnings came out last week.  So you could just stay with it for a while for your short.  If you want quick cash cover on $36.00.  If it broke 36, it is going to at least 31.  If you don&#8217;t have margin account and have IRA.  There is one Speculated play it is &#8220;COIN&#8221;  If it pulled back in the morning to about $1.65 buy it, and make sure it is pull back on low volume.  I think this stock can go to at least 2.50, that is almost 40%.  Again, do use all your money, just try to get your winning feeling back, and also try not to hold these play over night.  It is very volatile, and we are also very overbought for now.  Good Luck!  I hope you make some money, If not 40% at least 10%  will you?</p>
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		<title>By: AJVS</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59843</link>
		<dc:creator>AJVS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2009 00:29:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59843</guid>
		<description>Sheetfaced,

Let me explain how I am trading currently. It is a limited risk trade, as long as you trade very volatile stocks, like the big banks. Usually it takes some time, 02/03 weeks for you to  have profits:

- Buy options with at least 06 weeks to expiration from very volatile stocks

- I usually choose only ITM (in the money) Options

- The logic is to have 02 legs an make some calculation with their delta, in order to make them completely equal when you are buying

- You expect that any movement in one direction (or time decrease) will unbalance everything and you will have profits in the end

- Calculate the amount you will trade in the follow way:

Number_Call X Call_Price X (1+ Delta_Call)=Number_Put X Put_Price X (1+ Delta_Put)

Let&#039;s say that in the end, you found:

Number_Call = 0.2 X Number_ Put .......So in this case, just multiply by 5 and you will have an even number, or:

5*Number_Call=1X Number_Put

AJVS</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sheetfaced,</p>
<p>Let me explain how I am trading currently. It is a limited risk trade, as long as you trade very volatile stocks, like the big banks. Usually it takes some time, 02/03 weeks for you to  have profits:</p>
<p>- Buy options with at least 06 weeks to expiration from very volatile stocks</p>
<p>- I usually choose only ITM (in the money) Options</p>
<p>- The logic is to have 02 legs an make some calculation with their delta, in order to make them completely equal when you are buying</p>
<p>- You expect that any movement in one direction (or time decrease) will unbalance everything and you will have profits in the end</p>
<p>- Calculate the amount you will trade in the follow way:</p>
<p>Number_Call X Call_Price X (1+ Delta_Call)=Number_Put X Put_Price X (1+ Delta_Put)</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s say that in the end, you found:</p>
<p>Number_Call = 0.2 X Number_ Put &#8230;&#8230;.So in this case, just multiply by 5 and you will have an even number, or:</p>
<p>5*Number_Call=1X Number_Put</p>
<p>AJVS</p>
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		<title>By: Shanky "Now I am annoyed"</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59738</link>
		<dc:creator>Shanky "Now I am annoyed"</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 18:40:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59738</guid>
		<description>If I can help on the investment side let me know. Nothing is worth freaking out over. It is only $$. So many more important things in life. Hang in there. you can get it back, but lessons learned 1) nothing is certain and 2) always use stops no matter what 3) have a disciplined plan and stick to it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I can help on the investment side let me know. Nothing is worth freaking out over. It is only $$. So many more important things in life. Hang in there. you can get it back, but lessons learned 1) nothing is certain and 2) always use stops no matter what 3) have a disciplined plan and stick to it.</p>
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		<title>By: Shanky "Now I am annoyed"</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59735</link>
		<dc:creator>Shanky "Now I am annoyed"</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 18:37:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59735</guid>
		<description>VIX looks due for a little pop. 

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/vix-falling-wedge-double-bottom-and.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>VIX looks due for a little pop. </p>
<p><a href="http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/vix-falling-wedge-double-bottom-and.html" rel="nofollow">http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/vix-falling-wedge-double-bottom-and.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: bones</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59680</link>
		<dc:creator>bones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 17:31:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59680</guid>
		<description>i think because of the stress test.   I dont think the up tick rule will cause too big of a rally if any.  They took away shorting for a short period of time last year and the market still went down eventually.  The uptick rule will just slow down the drop but it wont prevent a drop from happening when it does.  Volume will pick up after the stress test results are announced.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i think because of the stress test.   I dont think the up tick rule will cause too big of a rally if any.  They took away shorting for a short period of time last year and the market still went down eventually.  The uptick rule will just slow down the drop but it wont prevent a drop from happening when it does.  Volume will pick up after the stress test results are announced.</p>
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		<title>By: gfjr</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59672</link>
		<dc:creator>gfjr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 17:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59672</guid>
		<description>Does anyone think that the market is not correcting the way it should because of the Bank stress test or is it  because the market is actualy waiting for how the SEC is going to modify the up-tick rule?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does anyone think that the market is not correcting the way it should because of the Bank stress test or is it  because the market is actualy waiting for how the SEC is going to modify the up-tick rule?</p>
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		<title>By: bones</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59635</link>
		<dc:creator>bones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 16:28:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59635</guid>
		<description>sheetfaced,

Sorry you had that happen but your not alone.  I also built up a hefty account during the nazdaq bubble and lost it all by doing exactly what you did.  Got out of stocks for years until about a year and a half ago when I knew the economy was in trouble and the market would crash.  I borrowed $10k from a credit card and over a year later built it to over $200k.  You can come back but you have to treat it as investing and not gambling.  I too lately have lost money during this run up.   I even had it in my head that it could go to 915 but got impatient &amp; bored sitting in cash and got in early.  I purchased May puts and they are now pretty worthless so I took a huge hit to my account.  But I learned from it.  I wouldnt enter the market short until after the bank stress test rally exhausts which could be thurs or maybe early next week.  We will see a correction but when you have gains right now you have to take them because the gov is pumping so much $ in the market that all the everyday people are jumping in not wanting to miss the boat.  Also the market is such low volume that it is easy to manipulate right now.  Once we retracement I see the market continuing up again.  You have to play the trend for right now even though all the smart investors know the economy is crap.  And thats okay because let them build up the s&amp;p back up to 1000 to 1100 because later this year after we dont pull out of recession, more people losing jobs, businesses shut down, banks continueing to need $ to survive, the market will be on another down trend and we will get to take advantage of the s&amp;p dropping from a higher point.  Better for us. I honestly believe that once unemployment gets severely worse w/ more people losing jobs and everyone being taxed for everything, and the recovery they promise doesnt happen &amp; leaves all the people in severe debt that there will be rioting that may cause capitulation.   Remember cash is a position if you are unsure of the market.  Dont give up yet because this is a once in a lifetime chance to make a ton of money as long as you dont make any more major mistakes like chasing stocks on the way down.  Use stops and be patient.  If you want to be safer, buy long term put options that expire in 10 or 11&#039;, thats how I gained my $ is in long term puts and just waited for the crash.  Its harder now because the stocks are cheaper but with them pushing the market up so high again looks like I&#039;ll be able to do that stragegy again.  Again, DONT GIVE UP!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>sheetfaced,</p>
<p>Sorry you had that happen but your not alone.  I also built up a hefty account during the nazdaq bubble and lost it all by doing exactly what you did.  Got out of stocks for years until about a year and a half ago when I knew the economy was in trouble and the market would crash.  I borrowed $10k from a credit card and over a year later built it to over $200k.  You can come back but you have to treat it as investing and not gambling.  I too lately have lost money during this run up.   I even had it in my head that it could go to 915 but got impatient &amp; bored sitting in cash and got in early.  I purchased May puts and they are now pretty worthless so I took a huge hit to my account.  But I learned from it.  I wouldnt enter the market short until after the bank stress test rally exhausts which could be thurs or maybe early next week.  We will see a correction but when you have gains right now you have to take them because the gov is pumping so much $ in the market that all the everyday people are jumping in not wanting to miss the boat.  Also the market is such low volume that it is easy to manipulate right now.  Once we retracement I see the market continuing up again.  You have to play the trend for right now even though all the smart investors know the economy is crap.  And thats okay because let them build up the s&amp;p back up to 1000 to 1100 because later this year after we dont pull out of recession, more people losing jobs, businesses shut down, banks continueing to need $ to survive, the market will be on another down trend and we will get to take advantage of the s&amp;p dropping from a higher point.  Better for us. I honestly believe that once unemployment gets severely worse w/ more people losing jobs and everyone being taxed for everything, and the recovery they promise doesnt happen &amp; leaves all the people in severe debt that there will be rioting that may cause capitulation.   Remember cash is a position if you are unsure of the market.  Dont give up yet because this is a once in a lifetime chance to make a ton of money as long as you dont make any more major mistakes like chasing stocks on the way down.  Use stops and be patient.  If you want to be safer, buy long term put options that expire in 10 or 11&#8242;, thats how I gained my $ is in long term puts and just waited for the crash.  Its harder now because the stocks are cheaper but with them pushing the market up so high again looks like I&#8217;ll be able to do that stragegy again.  Again, DONT GIVE UP!</p>
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		<title>By: sheetfaced</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59578</link>
		<dc:creator>sheetfaced</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 15:12:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59578</guid>
		<description>TenK

I was so far down and that night when everyone thought that it had topped and was heading south I thought that it was the time to risk it all and try to get it back. I figured that even if it was short lived I would have at least gotten some of it back. Like every other time I buy a stock the market went the other way. I am a total loser.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TenK</p>
<p>I was so far down and that night when everyone thought that it had topped and was heading south I thought that it was the time to risk it all and try to get it back. I figured that even if it was short lived I would have at least gotten some of it back. Like every other time I buy a stock the market went the other way. I am a total loser.</p>
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		<title>By: sheetfaced</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/05/04/new-highs-or-blow-off-top/comment-page-1/#comment-59576</link>
		<dc:creator>sheetfaced</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 15:09:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=13909#comment-59576</guid>
		<description>El Guru, Wow, how do you recover from that? Thats where I am right now and it sure looks impossible from here. I lost so much money that I would have to have 20 100% gainers in order to get my money back. Hell I can&#039;t even put a trade together now for a 200 dollar gain. The only way I can see to make any attempt at getting back up is by waiting for a market drop and taking whats left and trying FAZ one last time? What would you suggest I do? What other stocks would be a buy if we get a correction? I need all the help I can get before I&#039;m literally dead.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>El Guru, Wow, how do you recover from that? Thats where I am right now and it sure looks impossible from here. I lost so much money that I would have to have 20 100% gainers in order to get my money back. Hell I can&#8217;t even put a trade together now for a 200 dollar gain. The only way I can see to make any attempt at getting back up is by waiting for a market drop and taking whats left and trying FAZ one last time? What would you suggest I do? What other stocks would be a buy if we get a correction? I need all the help I can get before I&#8217;m literally dead.</p>
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