5:17pm
Yeah.. i’ll only be able to make the video later today around 9 pm, sorry about that.
4:05pm
872!! was my call at around 2 pm… so was only about 0.8$ away.. will have a video out by 5:30ish hopefully. Potentially a little later…
3:16pm
H&S is breaking here on the SPY… looking like the volume is piling up.. it’s trading at 87.23, which is 2 cents below the neckline…
3:08pm
Both the S&P and Dow Jones are at their 10 minute H&S (over 2 days of trading) necklines, with a target that should take us down another 120-130 points assuming it breaks, watch out for this close, this is one of the most important stock market close this month.
2:27pm
On the 10 minute candle there is still a potential for a head and shoulders with a neckline at 870$ on the S&P.
2:21pm
Bulls managed to come into this market strong at 2:10 pm despite the bear flag that has been forming, the bulls formed an inverse head shoulders on the 1 minute with a neckline at 88.30, broke out of that with a target of 81.10$ which is the 61.8% retracement of the move from the peak today to the low.
1:43pm
Prior resistance at 10.85$ on the XLF is now acting as support, but the push higher here looks a lot like a bear flag on low volume, so we might break this level to the downside by the end of the day. A push higher on low volume in the markets before 2 PM reversal could be a great trigger for more shorts to step in.
1:36pm
Who would have thought we would break down under 875 yet again, if this continues, we will end the month right around 875, which means next month will probably start with a huge decline as the bears get ready to pile in. I will go short about 30% extra on my portfolio at the end of the day if this is the case.
1:07pm
If you want a good place to go short, it would probably be around yesterdays high on the S&P around 877 ish with a tight stop around 878.50. For the head and shoulders play.
1:04pm
SRS found some resistance at the gap fill but is forming a potential bull flag on lower volume , i’m looking to add some more here to lower my cost basis price to around 24.40$ or so… S&P found support around the 875 level now, but boy we are forming a head and shoulders on the 10 minute, and if we end the day under 875 the bears will have the best day tomorrow.
11:57am
$89 on the SPY seemed to be resistance to watch for, we are now trading again in the bottom half of my channel which is incredibly surprising because $89 on the SPY has never been seen as strong resistance. Maybe this factors in to market sentiment, no one really expects a reversal at that point. I am staying with my short positions until and will look to cover most at support of the channel.
11:29am
I am not short the S&P anymore, I hold a small short position n GS, and XLF, and own SRS.
11:12am
XLF will find strong resistance around 11.30, resistance on S&P is really at 900, which will potentially coincide with the upper resistance of my channel.
9:54am
GS can’t seem to hold its gains… and is falling back into its wedge formation.
9:48am
Can then S&P really break out? I think a short might be a good play here, but I’m scared playing anything before May 4th.
9:27am
Market is about to oepn higher despite crystler filing for bankruptcy, today is the last day of the month and the bulls might want to make sure that monthly looks amazing. Although I do expect some fear to start coming into the market as we aproach may 4th sentiment later today.
—– im staying with my 878 closing call —- Friday is “usually” an up day. but the market loves to throw curves. hope they throw a curve.
I think the bears would do everything to close under 875…
I’ll take 868.
BOUGHT BACK my SRS that i sold at the close yesterday for a buck less
— $23.09 ——- had an order in the $22.30 but it did not reach it… doh!
I’m more of a 872 type of guy..
Everyone glued to their seats?
test
somebody’s got a wad of cash about to submit that order
Anyone holding overnight and what?
holding qid again….
XLF dumping out.
FAZ>FAS
see ya bye financials
Not so fast bro! we need a clean break. We all know how many of us got burned trying to time FAZ!
Close beneath 10.80 on xlf is exactly what I wanted and what printed
Not that I am suggesting chasing faz mind you. Always keep in mind I never go long faz, I always short fas via selling otm call options.
Tech green, financials red. See what I mean Morris? Other then the first major jump up (because banks were so heavily shorted) financials have lagged. On down days they sell off a lot more heavier then tech and on up days they still fail to make new highs.
They may break out but so far I think its a pretty good paired trade to make.
Oh, I agree with you that techs have been the place to be long lately (although I have not been in the trade unfortunately). I was just making the case that financials were not lagging the S&P this morning and that over the past couple of months the financials are WAY out in front of the S&P and tech.
“Not that I am suggesting chasing faz mind you. Always keep in mind I never go long faz, I always short fas via selling otm call options.”
This advice that you gave above is really smart. I hope that people here who are bearish on the financials (not me) will give this strategy a shot.
Cheers!
Also, I appreciate the back and forth without any negativity. It’s good to hear different viewpoints about things. All the “what kind of idiots are buying banks” and “if you are buying now you are a willing criminal participant in a giant government-sponsored Ponzi scheme” kind of nonsense posts are getting really old.
I bought in for some more SRS at the end. Seems like a pretty bearish move at the end of the day there. but then.. Idan’s been saying that all week. doh!
The last hour on Tuesday was much more bearish than today and yet the market gapped up big the next day.
Until the Obama team decides to go easy on the bears the market won’t come crashing down any time soon.
I took to the less bearish route by selling BGZ May40 puts at 2.10 this morning.
7.77 buy on FAZ earlier–so far so good.
IWM MAY PUTS ====== BOUGHT @ 2:51 $0.70 ————- +22.86% (close at $0.86)
seems notiicing the index divergence is paying off so far.
also loaded up other positions at the magic 888 …. see how this plays out. now let’s see how the party goes with the BACK 2 BACK up months.
Bob has something to share today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEbBQOF9PF0
damn, im long 3M ……….. im calling the white house! this is ruining my trade
can they bid up AH before monthly statements print
or must trades be settled by EOM to print?
AH doesn’t really “count” in regards to that…
Sold all my longs today except gold and food stuff. Keeping short on CPSI.
Finally the market is getting predictable.
SRS ——- after the last up leg … it made a double bottom before heading higher. hopefully that is what we just got for all of you following this trade!
ive more than made up for my loss in LIFE … cha ching … not one losing trade today
thanks Richey…look forward to hearing how you do…I’m in also.
Does anyone know a good calculator to compare stocks to the s&p to project future prices?
I do a comparison with the s&p, but it varies alot, and I’m mostly in etf’s.
if you use stockcharts, click on ‘Indicators’ and use/click an open box that says ‘None’. Scroll up to the top where ‘Price’ is.
Click ‘Price’. Then, in the ‘Parameters’ section, enter the stock symbol. You can also enter $spx etc, for index’s too.
Then, on the ‘Position’ section you can put that above, below, or behind current stock price. Play around with it, and see what works best.
You might too, put one stock symbol ABOVE, and then open up another ‘Price’ button and enter ‘$spx, and put it, above, too. As I say, play around with it.
Ed, thanks so much for that.
What’s the story with SDS AH?
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:SDS
can someone explain why Ford goes up when Chrysler files for BK?
I guess elimination of competition…..
More bullish sentiment on the streets… this is from an AP article:
“Chrysler’s bankruptcy put only a small dent in Wall Street’s rally.
The announcement was not surprising to investors, though, and the Dow still capped the month of April with a robust gain of 7.4 percent.”
“Wall Street has been growing more confident that the nation’s economy, while not yet healthy, is nearing a bottom. The Dow is already up 25 percent from its 12-year low in early March. That optimism was stoked by calming words about the economy from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and a government report Thursday showing a decline in last week’s jobless claims.”
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/shared-gen/ap/Stock_Markets/US_Wall_Street.html
Yeah, ignore the far worst than expected news while you’re at it AP. Oh, and now we beleive this same FED that said we would only have 1 quarter below 0% GDP. PLEEEEZ. We are locked in a -6%/Q slide, whch is the worst in a half century. And btw, SP500 GAPP earnings will be about $5/Q for the next 2 quarters which means the SPX should be down below 100 at a PE of 20!!
I don’t know why they all are so hooked on a V-bottom, which has never once been the case.
We may be on our way down there starting TODAY based on the Black Candle and being back in the down channel.
Idiot media.
Was out for a bit. Had no doubt of the finish so did some other work. Was pretty close on the close call. I’m up 12-30% (thanks VIX). More fun tomorrow. Martini time.
SPG is reporting in the morning about a 13% short of the float. Will wait to see if there is squeeze before I look at SRS, looking for 18 for entry.