Today I update my viewers on how I exited my short positions when the Dow Jones broke the resistance of the chnannel, however going long right now is not the rigth trade. The trade is to trade the channel, and so going short at 880 was the right trade, and buying it at the support of the channel looks good as well. Take a look at how I analyze the charts of SPX, SPY, GS, XLF, TNX, VIX, and the Dow of course.
Video Update ~ 04/29/2009 Dow Channel Resistance Breaks
– April 29, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Videos
Good stuff. Is there anyone who really believes DJI is going to 10,000 or the SPX to 500 in the short term? NFW! THe DOW wedge will break sometime soon (2-3 days) and when it does we’ll know. Until then, I’m short in a bear market. It’s cost me some $$$$ but I’ve made much more $$$$$ on the way down.
05/04/09 will be the day I think we’ll see if dji is going to 9000 or 7000 when the stress test results are released. Who’s thinking 10,000 in the short term? That’s one optimistic bull.
I dont’ know what other news they can throw in to boost dji. I think everyone knows that things are bad and don’t want to be long for long term.
When will the market acknowledge, situation of economy has not improved.
all the pending bankruptcies will be viewed as clarity and cnbc will tell us so
I posted the news on the Dow 10,000 … on CNBC …. this may be the contrarian indicator of how media has become uber bullish …
FUNNY 10,000 people can die here in a week from this flu and the market is up I have never seen anything like it, to me above 5,700 is too much it,s worst than people know ( the world economic condition )
Seriously, I don’t think the stress tests will be anything but a catalyst. Everything will have been leaked by then anyway IMHO. It’s all BS
well it could confirm the projected (leaked) increased capital demands by BAC and C that the companies were denying yesterday…
FT op-ed stated that the tests are designed to clear the way for “Wall Street” to solve the problem (private debt/equity issuance) rather than further government $
ps:Roubini said the macroeconomic assumptions being used for stress tests are
already outdated due to changing circumstances…
Idan, does a close above 872 on the SPX negate P1?
not necessarily.. it can actually go all the way to 934… but i’m in the camp of P2
Alright, I am naieve when it comes to EW. Please correct me. P1 is claiming the lows have not been seen as of yet; P2 is the lows have been seen.
I would appreciate a clarification on this so as to follow the conversations accurately.
Thanks
exactly, if we are in P1, this means we are still in wave 4, and will be starting wave 5 downards soon. If we are in P2, we have already seen the lows and are are on the A wave of correction, we will see wave B soon, and then wave C will take us higher, before we start P3, a new bear market.
Yes. If P1 has completed 5 of 5, then the low was Mar 6, and wave P2 up starts. The big argument right now is whether we actually saw 5 of 5 waves completed in P1 or just 3 of 5 and are now in 4 of 5.
Hah! Sorry, i type too slow!! There was no reply when i started.
Nonetheless, thank you both .
There is a 95% probability that wave (5) HASN’T happened yet.
I’m starting to turn bullish in my frustration and incertitude of the market. THIS may just be the sign or signal for it to turn bearish. Just when you’ve been convinced otherwise it turns and bites you in the ass. In simple terms ‘steals all your money!’
It looks like the Bulls have won.
However, this is what you find in Jesse’s Cafe blog:
29 April 2009
Administrative Message
No Sidebar Charts Tonight.
Why bother with charts when the markets are so carefully scripted?
This too will pass, and the aftermath of the manipulation will be difficult if not terrible.
Some bullish sentiment from Bloomberg:
“U.S. Markets Wrap: Equities Climb as Earnings Top Estimates ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am7B6eYEW_Rw&refer=home
“The worst may be over for the economy,” said Bruce Bittles, the Nashville, Tennessee-based chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees $18 billion. “We may see some period of stability ahead. Earnings have been discounted for so long, we’re seeing surprises on the upside.”
Exactly … lowball the estimates then say we beat them
All I know is that I made 40k today. Given the wedge, I’m going to take some profits on Friday but good companies are going up. I would gamble big on it, but I say SP500 will bust through resistance.
Nice What are you trading
Aipc rack feed fnfg auy tc ….Mostly
Sold cpsi today and went short on it.
I did have a lucky day.
Swhc should go to 10 within a couple months. I sold this today to and will buy back after a 5% pb
3min, I think we are the only bullish people posting on this board!
Make that three.
long gs, bucy, slb mos
still trading only by the day. no holding.
Does anyone know when they will be announcing the stress test results to the public. Isnt it on May 4th? If so, does anyone know what time during the day. Is it before open, during market hours, or after close.
Thanks