4:06pm
Somewhat ambiguous close.. but a close below $875 can lead to more declines, be cautiously bearish. I will have a video out by 7 ish.
3:25pm
A failure for the bulls to close above 875 will result in a sell off… to the bottom of the channel once again.
2:34pm
S&P now at very strong resistance, but it seems to be catching momentum… this is very intresting.. especially because today’s volume is nothing to brag about. Trade will be taken at around 880 on the S&P short.
2:04pm
GS hits longer term resistance at 126.60$. It is still trading in a ascending wedge formation.
11:30am
Yeilds did not rally like the stock market did… what will happen at 2 pm? I am planning to go short on the market yet again at 881, as we hit the middle channel resistance. Does this market really have the legs to break above that? I don’t really think so, but at this point i’m just going to short and cover if it breaks above 882.50. Also, I want to point up that this resistance is ascending so it might be 882$ if it happens late in the day.
10:42am
I will be gone for a couple of hours, if we rally above double top area, I will cover all my shorts. It is important to note, that the Dow Jones is close to its highs but the financials aren’t.
10:11am
Resistance was found at a descending line from the top at 87.60+ from a week ago, to the top that we had last friday. This is where volume started picking up on the SPY, i guess that’s the level to watch right here, around 87$.
9:56am
For those who were wondering, I took about 30% of my shorts off to lower my risk level. I am still about 40% short on my protfolio, but will take some more off if the double top level is breached.
9:49am
Dow Jones is trading slightly above the breakout level, volume still not as high as you’d want to see in a breakout, maybe they are waiting for a double top level at 8122.
9:41am
Hitting up against Dow Jones resistance, will we get that breakout? 8107 is the resistance right now to be exact. The XLF might be strong enough to push this market higher.
8:36am
Wow… i was close with my GDP prediction.. We hit the resistance on the futures and fell back down a little.
12:00am
Hey guys, the futures are now up around 0.5% for all indexes but this does not change my view until the Dow Jones at 8100 ish is broken. A break of that on strong volume would mean that we are going higher and that we have only formed a bull flag in the last few days. These futures numbers, however, are prior to a GDP reading that will be given at 8.30 am. For those of you who were wondering what I was thinking the GDP numbers would be; the market forecasts a -4.7%, and I believe we’ll see -5.9%, but inventories will be somewhat depleted and that might be some encouraging signs for the economy in general.
USD climbing again
what exaclty do you use to track the USD? thanks in advance.
/DX is what i use on TOS
Just against the JPY for now sometimes Euro.
I think this market will close at the high of the Month tomorrow and will perhaps start tanking Friday or Monday….. I burnt $1000…. trying to play the pullback…. On the sidelines for this week…. Perhaps we get a better idea on the direction on Monday.
GLTA
i was hoping the hs on spx 1m would play out. better hope again
50ma just about to cross the 200ma RIFIN 10m has me worried. Could be Richards stick save.
VIX ticking up – prelude to equity selloff, imo
kick some butt, Idan. R3 and p o o p
THE ONE MINUTE SPX …. looks like a clowns hat and shoulders.. is that a bearish pattern?
see post 2
I was thinking more like a middle finger myself
hehe
No. It’s a FED uniform.
…again my crazy logic (kind of Straddle) was triggered (-30% losses)…SPY reached 88.30 and some CALLs were bought…
–Now I don’t care for any movement…as long as any leg will move far than the another one…usually it takes 02 weeks for me to break even….at least it is safe
Not sure I understand what you you placed
I bought 100 PUTs at 5 or $5K. I had a order that was triggered, buy $5K of CALLs if the PUTs losses reach -30%
So now my portfolio is:
100 June PUTs bought by $5K…current value $3.5K
100 June CALLs bought by $5K…
As long as any leg will move far in one direction, probably I will break even in a couple of weeks
Bottom line, no risk at all
Still in FAZ iwise enough to move my stops to 8:05 (had them at 8:25). Taking a los of about 13% so far in FAZ but still believe the reversal is inevitable and I think it will be more severe now that we overextended this market.
chrysler will go into bankruptcy for fiat deal -bloomberg
SELL 1000 HOU 1% GAIN … jack squat… did not break the $51.50 so im out.
wfc red
Q’s lost the MA on the daily
takin’ names,,,and kickin’ butt. Must be the SPACE CHICKEN I had for lunch
We should be down big tomm …..
SRS JUST WENT STRAIGHT UP
World Health Organization to announce a PHASE 5 Pandemic Alert in 40 minutes. Rally like it’s 1918
lol
Thirty Minutes…
GS loaded up with $2 billion earlier today; will that be enough?
maybe and then they will short gs
what is the bottom of the channel?
guess we need to go down now…. so we can end the month on a nice uptick and close above the key level of 875… that sound about right? need to end on positive.
LOOK AT THAT SRS RUN … im so lucky to have my order filled. ive picked bottom moves to the penny before only to look and see my limit order left not filled.
Richard – how did you calculate it
… can you share ?
used the target of 882 on the spx and then used srs fib and % move to that target… came out at 22.10…. lucky to hit to the penny to be honest
thanks for sharing … makes sense
great call on SRS Richard. You gonna cover that EOD or let it ride through tomorrow?
im going to ride those 400 into May i hope. i keep having to bail at a small profit and re-enter. this is not over yet. one more pop tomorrow and close above 875 is what im thinking. but id rather hold bcs of course, dont know for sure.
86.96 is the Pivot Point Indicator S/R line on my 2 min SPY chart.
CLOWN HAT AND SHOULDERS points to — 868 —
IM LONG TAP … and i just heard that BEER cures the pig flu. everyone get out and pick up 10 cases of COORS!
good line up
Vix o meter poppin (too bad it took all day) but a back test in progress. Stopped out of IBM. Holding everything else over.
EOD 866
April 29 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama plans to announce tomorrow morning that Chrysler LLC will be placed into Chapter 11 bankruptcy leading to an alliance with Italian
automaker Fiat SpA, people involved in the matter said.
50ma coming in to pick up the lifeless bodies off the floor of XLF and RIFIN. It’s not over.
As much as I want to go short, my guts telling me to sit it out for the end of month…
Hey “permabear” is that the itsy, bitsy spider?
OH NNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO the bears are ruined:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30477790
50% retrace of the move we just made ——– is 876 … can they pull it off
in the last 20 minutes? or , go lower and then retrace tomorrow.
The bulls are going to crawl through the 881 wall overnight….bet ya.
Everytime he says something that we are thinking on the board … it doesn’t happen …
Actually heard him speak on the video … he said that the Macellan indicator is showing a very sharp move … not sure in which direction though …. interesting …
Naked Or Just Shorts
“If you come into the pool, everybody has to be wearing a swimsuit,” Stump told shareholders at an annual meeting when asked about government efforts to step up surveillance in the embattled financial services arena.
ok, I’m going to play one short….CPSI. In.
maybe we end up negativve for the day
Out of fingers to plug the dike? Here we go….
we moved 7 points from the neckline and made a retrace of 50% almost to the penny.
guess that is all we get. 868 plays out the HS pattern
882 – 868 = 14 points… 7 point retrace tomorrow to 875 is possible. sounds pretty too.
—RIM.TO— Touched 80.01. Strong resistance at $80. Could be a potential 3-4$ pop in next few days, a stop 10-20 cents below would equate only 0.2-0.4% loss on your portfolio (approx
how do you figure it’s at 80?
80.00$ was tested as support on April 20 as the low of day and we bounced off to 86.29
From april 3 (1 day after earnings gap), to april 29, draw the channel, 80.00 is also support on the upwards channel. I still think it’s a good play with a tight stop .
so we broke out of the channel that Idan drew. it is possible we close just above it … would this not be bullish. break out and back test?
from this action… im going to bet we do bounce back up tomorrow. so im going to sell half of my SRS position.. 200 shares. changed my mind
Okay, They’ve Got Their Headline
“Market hits 3-month highs after Fed comments”
Now you can close red.
High volume gap down tomorrow?
Yup and then retrace to test high again? My thoughts anyway.
oh that is too good, fas/faz within a penny or two of each other
/bravo
Boy, bears suck in closing the day
“A failure for the bulls to close above 875 will result in a sell off… to the bottom of the channel once again. ”
S&P500 at 873.61 for the day.. I went in for some SPY puts.. something tells me I’m going to be slaughtered tomorrow, but have to have the morning rush.
Nutzo…just like the last X-number of days. Congrats to those who held out for D’s 881. Other than flippin IBM, the rest is ok. AAPL AMR puts just a few pennies down. VIX calls even. Almost pulled the trigger on TBT calls before 2:00 but didn’t. Duh. Ah well. No clue about tomorrow. Homework to do.
Pandemic threat level raised to 5 from 4 on scale of 6 about 5 minutes ago by WHO.
That’s not possible. Arctcifire said it wasn’t a big deal. Just a bunch of hype
Anyone trading Apollo Education (APOL)?
All I do is rant and rave about the insanity of the market. But I know there’s got to be one or to smart guys/gals on here who can give an intelligent explanation for what happened today. If you are willing to share.
1. Bulls are no longer afraid to buy on bad news or pullbacks. They can see that the bears have not been taking this market down when given chances as of late. This is inspiring confidence.
2. Many buyers are not acting with the current state of the economy in mind. They are buying now thinking that things are beginning to show some signs of improvement.
Someone asked who was buying banks now. Well, it is buyers who think the banks will be better off 6 months from now. Will they be? I don’t know but my opinion doesn’t matter. I can rant and scream that the banks are insolvent and the balance sheets are lies but if the market doesn’t agree with me then what does it matter?
So why is the market insane? Is it because it is not acting the way many bears here think it should be acting?
I’m sure that bulls made the same arguments when the market was sliding day after day even when it was WAY oversold. The market is going to do what it is going to do.
Where the bears got it wrong (including myself) was in thinking that there was going to be a pullback from the runup from Mar 6. Many people cited the “rule of alternation” with wave (2) from last Mar to May. I tried several times to remind people that that wasn’t a rule. There is no such thing as “the rule of alternation,” it’s a tendency at best. And indeed what we see now proves that to be the case. There isn’t going to be a pullback. We’re going to go up until we either hit the right fib or res level. This is either going to be a rounded top or a cliff.
I still maintain that this is wave (4). Nothing has changed from my POV as far as that goes. Everyone is calling this a new primary, P[1], but come on. Just look at the daily for the runup from Mar6. Does that look impulsive to you? Or does that look corrective? A: Corrective.
We are not done with move down. Do I know how high we will go? No. I don’t. I only know the basic principles. You need three sets of 5 waves down to complete a primary and we’ve only had two sets so far. That is an inviolable rule which means there are no exceptions to it ever. Do I need to pound the desk and try to convince people I’m right. No. it’s a fact. You either accept that wave (5) is coming or you don’t. I’ve published the wave (4 Redux) chart many times in the past two months with several updates. At this point I’ve either made a believer out of people or I haven’t. There’s not point in arguing about it any further. Good luck trading.
P.S. That I replied doesn’t mean I think I’m one of the smart people on ST. I’m deep in the hole on my short positions so clearly I’m not.
Well, long term big money always confuses short term small money when your not pointed in the same direction. The only way short small money bears can win is for big money to get caught in the market during a crash. Not sure that scenario will happen soon.
Idan – please can you share what you did with your positions in the day and what you are holding….
Thanks a lot for the great work you do …
I figured Roche Holding AG (Pharmaceuticals) would be shooting up like crazy by now. They are the creators of Tamiflu with supplies getting lower and this swine flu pandemic going on I am wondering if it is a good buy for the long. Any ideas?
I would be careful with such speculation…because as the flu passes through the US in the southern hemisphere where flu virus is not affected by Tamiflu it will mutate and be resistant to it by the fall when the virus really hits us hard and gets stronger…
Of couse, the other side to this is that if people *think* Tamiflu will be effective the stock will go up. Refer to Morris’ comments above…the mkt will do what it wants…consider the overall sentiment but be careful with speculation in this crazy environment.
Does this tell us the turn is coming ?????
Dow 10,000 By Year’s End? Some Pros Think It’s Possible
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30478135
Good. Articles like this indicate a turnaround may be in the books in the near/distant future
Remember back in March when CNBC was saying S&P to 500, and everybody thought we were going to crash
Cramer is literally shooting ‘panda’ & ‘yogi’ bears on Mad Money. The first 5 minutes of the show displayed Cramer having a gun and shooting different kind of bears with his toy gun. It’s quite entertaining.
Of course it is possible. Just wait till the unemployment numbers improve..that is good for 1,000 points. Just wait till the banks are not insulvant and every qualified American has a 4.5% home mortgage (just got mine).
Inflation is the big devil, so buy a lot of gold and get bullish before you miss out
Mish commented on this precursor to the end of bear market rallies last week–I posted the interview on social.