4:25pm
Great close for the bears here. Video should be out by 7:30pm
3:42pm
I have been criticized really heavily for being short this market in the last week, but today and yesterday’s failure to break the resistance line of the Dow Jones, especially after we hit the S&P channel support you would expect a much higher volume bounce than what we got today.
3:23pm
These two charts are of Danny K.’s and I just thought they were well done, and had a lot of nice trend-lines and resistance that some of you might like to look at:
IWM
IYR (for those who own the SRS)
2:26pm
The SPY is breaking the bull flag resistance right now, and financials are rallying a bit on stronger volume, the dow is not yet at resistance, resistance is around 8105
2:13pm
The SPY is continuously trying to break the resistance of the bull flag formation we have over the past 2 days. The volume has slightly picked up but yields are falling and financials are still rather weak. I will cover the short positions I put on the SPY today if this flag breaks though.
12:42pm
I have to leave for a couple of hours, but I will be putting on a short around 86.30 ish, if we manage to get tehre. The bulls look tired yet again, yesterday they had more energy, and assuming that we bounced of the support level in futures trading and right at the open, this looks very weak for the bulls. Nevertheless, we are still trading within the channel and a break above 8110 on Dow Jones would mean that the bulls have one.
12:14pm
Looking at the Dow Jones, we found support at the 50% retracement of the move higher last week this morning, and have now found support at the 38.2% level. The SPY is showing an inverse heaad and shoulders on the 10 minute, a break of 86.40 is required though, and that’s next to bull flag resistance. Volume to the upside right now is still dead.
10:23am
Bull flag wedge pattern forming on the SPY, something to look out for as we hit channel support because a bounce to break that resistance could mean that we’re going higher.
10:07am
High consumer confidence readings helping prop the market up, but financials are not following along just yet. If the financials won’t rally, the SPY will eventually have to roll over…
9:43am
Consumer confidence coming out at 10 am…
9:20am
We are about to open really close to channel support or right under it, but I would like you to take some profits or positions off the table here no matter what, this could either be a breakdown or a fakeout, and my potfolio is already at high risk and I want to raise some cash here. There is a good potential that we break after a bounce.
For Arcticfire: Happy Now?
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a “state of emergency” for the state after local officials confirmed 13 cases of the swine flu in California. None has been fatal, although Los Angeles County Coroner’s officials were investigating two deaths as possibly related to the disease.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090428
yea, but don’t you love the permacrazybear addition?
I will be shorting tomm, at a higher levels need to reload
As per the trading volumes over the last week or so – the market is open only from 3:30 – 4:00 pm and 9:30 – 10:00 am. This must be the revised market timing as part of the banking solution by the feds.
Wow, 30-year treasury yields are way up today for some reason!
Could it have something to do with the Fed rate decision tomorrow??
what rate decision? Print more money???
Indeed. They are trying to determine at what rate they do the printing: kinda-sorta fast, fast, or Zimbabwe-style.
“The U.S. dollar as a main currency for international trade has many deficiencies, but the settlement of international trade will mainly be transacted in U.S. dollars,” Chen Deming, China’s minister of commerce, said in a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
I just got this info. Turn date for the market: May 7th. I have no clue why. If this prediction comes true. I will be impressed and happy to have found the website.
A short covering rally will occur prior to that with the “sell in may and go away saying” . I personally think we’ll at least get to 875 again. Maybe 900. Then the selling begins.
Hey, can you post the website please
http://www.stockbarometer.com/learnmore.aspx#daily
Close call? 853. Gap down overnight. He said wishfully.
Thunderstruck!
——— CMA ———— im out of this trade with a nice profit. im not re-entering until it gives some hint of direction http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cma
Took $$$ profit on 1/3 AAPL 120 puts. Closed 2.25 Bought 2.00
congrats, Flguy!
ty I promise to be right 51% of the time.
.25 bid in to close AMR $4 puts. Bought .15. Now .20. If I don’t catch it today, will hold over…probably.
CLOSED the rest at 2.35
Not holding over.
Awesome … just amazed at how nimble you are ….
Would be great if you could share how you trade these options … for the benefit of the others here
update futures charts….
http://i41.tinypic.com/2moxpuo.jpg
Guess I’ll toss a quarter to decide whether to play GS or SFK into the close. What a day. Anyone see any direction at all that is stronger than hypothesis?
Dear SPX:
I am a newbie to TA and have spent the entire day today looking at you. Staring even, trying to discern head and shoulders. Now, are you simply teasing me somemore or are you planning to deliver? You’ve got 30 minutes before I break up.
Love,
Alex
- NYSE volume 945M shares, about 20% below its three-month
average; advancers lead decliners by 1.5:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.76B shares, about 5% below its three-month
average; advancers lead decliners by 1.6:1.
Are we just back testing prior resistance before heading higher?
e.g. got out of bull flag, need to retest?
Down elevator
rounded top in the big picture.
Name change!
—– LIFE ——- covering so im going with 400 shares into earnings.
2.5% loss on the shares im shedding… hopefully a gain on the others.
thanks Anjali ! ……….. guess we trust the charts but we must also look
at when they report to limit risk.
You are welcome
– I agree … earnings too risky a play in my book …
This is crazy wild. I was busy in meetings today and unable to keep my finger on it. I sold my BGZ at 48.8 this morning and put in a lowball bid for a very small order of BGZ at 46.5. I decided to stay out of the market due to the bullishness this afternoon, went in to cancel but the order filled. The market broke down Trade is up 1.5% give or take and stop is in place at break even. Who knows, looks like I got lucky. A lot of people are turning bullish here which may be a turning signal.
T- 3mins…..?!?
Probably he held the long 3 minutes after buying at the high of the day.
Here we go again. Same pattern every day. Buy in the morning sell in the evening. Maybe this is just how it’s going to be.
Seriously, what is this? some big game every day of musical chairs between the big brokerage houses. Each day they take one chair away and there’s one less house. Till finally…what? No liquidity left in the market at all? Then what?
LTCM
spy should end day around 85.25
were you the one who still has us in P1? so your 5 of P1 starts now?
no i think we haven’t completed intermediate wave 4
Do you have a chart with your count? Thanks
see post 7
checked post 7 on all 4 pages and didn’t see anything relevant ?
oh nvm – on close call
This market has no direction. Yawn.
“Consumers hoping that the worst of the recession is over may be setting themselves up for disappointment as the US economy continues to deteriorate, a panel of economists and financial experts said Tuesday.”
http://bit.ly/q8erO
TA KIND OF WORKS
—LIFE—- $32 was support , then resistance, and now there it sits right on top of $32 coming into the close and heading into earnings. decent volume.
only problem. which direction is it heading after they report. my TA tells me lower. so we will see if that is correcto mundo.
good luck tomorrow !
rounding top eventually heading down. Maybe not what a daytrader would want to hear.
Richard = here is the news .. right now down to 31.95 ..
CARLSBAD, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE) today announced results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2009. Non-GAAP revenues for the first quarter were $785 million, an increase of 1 percent over first quarter revenues of $775 million in 2008, as if Invitrogen and Applied Biosystems had been combined. Excluding the negative impact from currency exchange rates, revenues grew 5 percent over the same period in the previous year.
“We are very pleased with the strong start we had in 2009, despite the macro economic challenges we all face today,” said Greg Lucier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Life Technologies. “We remain focused on our core business and executing flawlessly upon the Applied Biosystems-Invitrogen merger, thereby enabling us to invest in growth areas such as regenerative medicine and the next generation of sequencing technologies.”
Richard … stock is now 8% up @ 34.70 … apparently blew away estimates …
Life Technologies Corp. (LIFE | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) reported first quarter EPS of $0.72 after the close Tuesday, which topped the consensus estimate of $0.57. The stock is now up 2.47 on 393K shares.
may touch 8006 on the dow for close …
Thanks, Lisa Bear, for your many charts today.
no problem, hope they were helpful
Lisa – where were these posted ?
THEY ARE ALREADY GEARING UP TO BLAME THE FLU for further economic problems:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30454880
PPT: Here’s some money. Keep the market up.
GS: That’s fine for you but we gotta earn.
PPT: Program in some volatility. As much as you like. Just make sure the average stays above 850.
GS: OK. That works.
Good one …
PPT: One other thing. Start scaling in short. When we give the signal you pull the rug out.
GS: We’ll blame it on the flu. Hehe.
PPT: Right. We can blame the flu.
Wow, this market is bi-polar.
Were down to 842 in futures topped at around 864 (a 24 point up move) and ended the day down 2.35 points!! yeah!
Alrighty then. Last AAPL batch, good. First batch, not so good (no patience). Other early trades….FAZ, FAS puts, good. LVS calls, great! NEM…not so good (damn gold). Held the AMR puts. Notice it was down AH a few pennies.
As we get into a new month, especially with this schitzo manipulated bs flu-bugged market, playing closer to the money options will be the plan instead of going for the home run. Pass the Kettle One please.
ps Idan: don’t take any crap from anybody. It’s work like yours, Dan, Uner, Kenny, Shanky, et al that make for interesting and healthy differences of opinion.
FL – can you share your process of picking the options to play and how you protect against losses …. you seem to do a great job of this …
Thanks in advance … and great job today !!
see below
Idan the markets gone sideways since you went short. nothing to get upset about. keep up the good work.
Anjali: No real magic in being nimble. If I’m watching screens, I have trade windows open and populate everything except the bid price on the options I want. If the momentum is my way, I catch the bids. If not I will either let it pass or adjust a few pennies or (rarely) even enter a market bid if I really want the option. If I’m not at the screens, I have stops in place (usually).
What I’ve learned the hard way is stay away from options with lousy liquidity which causes the bid-ask spreads to be too wide. Sometimes ya just get lucky, like this morning. I just happened to see Kenny’s chart of LVS and it timed out nicely. Other times I stumble; like holding a bad position on those AAPL 115 puts thinking it’ll come back to me. Duh. Thanks for asking, though and have a good night.
btw….I’m not much of an EW guy. Love the work others do on that. I’m more a trend/momentum, TA guy.
Thanks a lot FL and Rb … I am no EW gal either
… learning but sometimes even the numbering gets me stumped 
I follow TA and the lines more …
Good idea about placing the order against the stock / ETF itself … I guess that will be a conditional order … need to learn about placing them ….
Maybe I am missing something here … but how do you get your exit points … my calculations usually seem off by a little bit and then I end up selling at a lower value as I see the tide turn …
E.g some puts this am .. my target on hitting Idan’s line was 0.85 … they reached till 0.81 and then turned the other way, I ended selling at 0.75 by the time I was able to change my order …
Wondering if I am miscalculating something here …..
when i trade spy puts, i generally enter the order to be triggered on an spx $ price if hit (e.g. so if $spx > 875, send SPY puts order limit at bid or sometimes at market)
likewise for exits
I know many of you here use this a lot when communicating during the day. Have or do any of you use U-stream during the trading day? There are some excellent rooms and traders that share both in chat and via live commentary. I frequent a room that is open during the entire trading session that is at this point still relatively small. There are numerous great traders and learning opportunities in this format. The one I frequent also has a live 1 hour show every night looking at various stocks, and always open depending on time to look at suggestions. This site is still free to this point, but in the future to maintain integrity and drive there will be a small monthly fee. What you can learn in this room will be well worth the time spent, especially if you are relatively new to trading. The main concentration is on the SPY, but other charts and discussions are held throughout the day. Just wondering if any of you are interested and would like some information. I think it coincides with StockTock nicely.
Please can you share the website …
I prefer not to spam the website, but if you email me I will gladly send information to those interested. My email address is randyg61@gmail.com
Just wanted to toss this out there for those interested. I find it beneficial, and just like the forum here, you can find both sides of the trade
It is primarily built on a team trading thesis.
Idan – you have done a great job and what you do is focused on the charts … no need to take critisicm from anyone ….
You share what you do and we are all responsible for our actions…. let the people criticising not take your recmommendations / trade based on your trades … its really that simple …
the problem is that we are trading within a range, and that only can be seen as bullish. If it doesn’t stay belown 8000, and 860 on rebound, then it is still bullish.
Grab a chart. Draw some lines from Wednesday to today. There’s your new channel.. Bearish.
DNDN opened up after the halt lifted at 25-26ish. We’ll see where it ends up.
A lot of people lost a lot of money on whatever the hell scam that was that dropped it from over 20 bucks to 7.50 in less then 2 mins on a fraction of the daily vol. Nasdaq isn’t doing a thing about it.
For my part, I had puts that I sold (15 and 17.5 strike). I did not have stops so they did not trigger. The stock is now trading the way I thought it would and should (up towards 30). However, I learned a very valuable lesson in what could have been a very very costly mistake as I left those positions open with no hedge. I won’t make that mistake or be that arrogant (sp?) again.
Please remember a trade is a trade. Did you know the stock would be halted? NO. Did you take the chance when given the opportunity to go long? NO? Miss it, ride it, guess it, 33% chance……do not kick yourself for missing what was, or could have been, or is?
I don’t know how many of you know Doug Kass, but here is his twitter:
http://twitter.com/dougkass
hint: check out the rumor and his favorite long (SKF).