Update 4/17 – 10:55 am PST:
So let’s look at more short term.
the 1 month shows play towards 877.
however:
the 6 month shows we’re at a short term peak of a long term trend line, and a point where two trend lines cross.
How do we account for this? The 6 month will not give in as easily as the 1 month. In order for both charts to hold, I think what we might potential see is fireworks at the last hour EOD. if the 1 month drops south of the wedge and to a lower trend line or fib say to 863 or 866, and then rises up to 877 all within an hour, we’ll see see the 877 EOD on the 1 month and the 60min avg 872-873 area on the 6 month.
That means we’ll see consolidation till the last hour.
furthermore, we might see a drop to the bottom of the wedge before that last hour to a little below 870, before a rise for a double top, THEN the major drop and pop as stated above.
The other option…if we break north of this 6 month trend line, then i am just going to buy calls.
873 break = calls
869 break = puts
i’m considering buying a put position right now at 873 for the potential drop to 870-
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Do you ever find yourself kicking yourself because you didn’t listen to yourself…
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/the-power-of-the-pink-channel
back in the end of march, over 3 weeks ago i began posting a blog that i slowly updated that was originally called….842 then 875. not sure if everyone remembers that…those potential fibs that i laid out on that chart played out beautifully to 842, and now it seems we’re on the way to 875 and higher.
so many people starting talking about the retrace and the move down, that it spooked me and for the last two weeks i’ve been playing for a possible large retrace, which has been screwing with me mentality. now i am regretting not trusting my own charts. people first said 840s were doubtful if not impossible, then they said 875 was impossible…now people are calling number even higher than 875.
currently i’m working on the next potential move. I have two options in mind at the moment. actually i have 3 potential options that i’m mulling over and i will show you two options right now which are combined into one chart so that i can watch the market movement and decide which to follow:
the pink boxes represent possible repeats of wave movements. i also drew thick pink fib lines to track the movement of both. if this were to play out, we’d see a drop out of the rising wedge and then a move back into the peak of the wedge. This is the leading diagonal that many people have been possibly calling for.
the other option is a move to 949 overall. This would be the ultimate bull case for the present moment. for this it is roughly the same length from 666-835 as it is from 780-949. The fibs line up pretty nicely as well. even it might be hard to tell which option should be chosen because both options could stay in place depending on how the market moves in the next couple days.
i’ll be playing very conservative in this market because we don’t really have a secure reference wave in all this movement.
oh, i forgot to mention other possible options. technically you can draw a trend line slightly above the bottom ascending wedge trend line..this line could have today’s peak be the point where the wedge completes. This would mean a huge fall into new lows possibly below 666.
there is also an option to divide up the current up wave differently, but i won’t get into that right now.
i’m leaning towards the downside short term.
Yeah, I find myself kicking myself often.
I decided to go with the wave a few days ago, been making money ever since. I use smart scan from Marketwatch and it works very well. I’ll be waiting and watching for the top, I think .the pullback when it comes could be big.
Woo,
my SPX weekly chart projection meets with the 40 week moving average and a double top area at the same time in around 950 in 3 weeks. you can see it in social.
it is very hard to fall in love with upside with such a parabolic move and bearish rising wedge forming. so dont fault yourself. maybe we get our correction today. im not leaning as hard to 805.. im leaning harder to 825 now.
this whole thing makes me sick because it just does not seem healthy for a bank to report one of the largest assets as OTHER on its balance sheet and then have the largest line item inside OTHER being labeled as OTHER. and then watch everyone pile in frenzy like.
Sorry but I cannot understand any of this. I’m sure it makes sense to you but it doesn’t make a bit of sense to me.
Thanks. It’s clearer now with the addional info. I get the top chart no problem, and on the second chart I see how you drew in the green trendlines, but no matter how hard I stare at it I cannot understand how you came up with the fibs in the pink boxes or the blue trendlines. Guess I’m just dense.
Ummm, didn’t you call for 777 and then 956?
Woo- “Do you ever find yourself kicking yourself because you didn’t listen to yourself…”
Would moving my entire retirement account into small caps on March 6th because I thought the world wasn’t ending but then getting scared and moving it out on March 11th count as a good example?
Shawn, I did almost the same thing you did. I moved alot of my 401K money in and then back out in early March only making around 3 percent on what could have been several times that. I even bought FAS at 2.36 but sold it at 3 something for a decent 41 percent increase but FAS recently hit $10. Meanwhile I bought FAZ way too early and wiped out my gain. I’m learning how to trade better. At least my 401K account is positive this year and I only lost about 9 or 10 percent last year. I started following http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com for additional guidance since their indicators caught the bulk of the recent rally. Free for 30 days but some on here give snippets from time to time. Their indicators were indicating a turn could be starting about here but they also state they are momentum indicators and miss the tops and bottoms by around 5 percent. I thought I read that in their last email.
I should state in the last email from http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com they didn’t give a clear sell signal in their 3 primary indicators yet. If we have a big selloff Monday, that might give the signal. I prefer to take a chance and bought some FAZ and SRS today but I’ll have stops in place. My thoughts are we just finished wave 1 up in the large primary 2 wave up and will be doing wave 2 down if I have these waves labeled correctly. I’m still learning elliottwave but have been too busy.
I think the video out tonight said a 38 percent retrace would be approximately 80 on the SPY but I don’t remember the exact number. I was expecting 875 on the SPX and didn’t realize 87.5 or so on the SPY would match. Thanks Woo and everyone else for your help and comments. I’ve learned quite a few useful things here on stocktock thanks to you guys. I know what it feels like to miss the bulk of the biggest 4 or 5 week rally since 1933 and I actually was all long at the bottom of the rally. One of the biggest mistakes, selling too early I believe I read somewhere.
Thanks Woo. This make the most sense to me and easy to watch for breakouts.
The timing with bank reporting is also just about right.