Today I only provided a short brief updated despite being incredibly busy because I felt obligated to tell you that I was wrong in thinking that the next move was probably to the down side. At around noon, I told my traders that it was time to look for bullish trades instead of bearish because this SPY wants to go to 87.50$, despite a few good trades at the end of the day, overall the portfolio fell 2%. We look at SPY and GS.
Hello, (5) of [1]
David Tice Says S&P May Plunge 62% To 325
April 16 (Bloomberg) — David Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc., said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably plunge about 62 percent.
He spoke during a Bloomberg Television interview today. The Federated Prudent Bear Fund that he founded returned 6.7 percent last year as the S&P 500 plunged 38 percent, the most since 1937.
Tice said the benchmark index for U.S. stocks may slump to about 325. It closed today at 865.30. The measure has surged 28 percent since March 9, the most in five weeks since the 1930s
Most believe we are in P2
To be fair to Tice, the 325 is a longer term call, and he has said this current bear market rally may run to 1000.
i believe we are going to P … P red candles very soon. im losing patience but im not going to cover one short.
how many Ed’s we got out there??
From the same blog (zero hedge) here is an explanation for today’s rally:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/late-day-trading-summary-attempt.html
Speaking Truth To Power
Stiglitz Says White House Ties to Wall Street Doom Bank Rescue
April 16 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration’s plan to fix the U.S. banking system is destined to fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
In Europe, they always cite the Prize correctly. It is Nobel Memorial Prize. Economists are not worth Nobel’s salt.
Was that a play on words Mohan? Salt. Saltpeter…Gunpowder.
Germans call it “Nobelpreis”
I am not shot yet because I would rather hope on a moving train than catch the knife. Still, the fact that we even in the 800′s truly means than nothing we are experiencing is real. Meaning, more than you can imagine is controlled.
I might dump a good portion in AMZN as a short soon because than seems the least controlled and even may be a victim of legeslative tax very soon.
Let C and BAC finish and then jump on the train.
I’m thinking of the samething, short amzn. not sure if tomorrow or monday would be a good entry point. base on the options, amzn should close south of 75 tomorrow.
3min, I always read your posts with interests, and tonight, I am very glad you are not shot *yet.* (stay outta trouble…. =)
Here is an interesting catch by TK. If the move tops tomorrow as expected with the wedge to 875, then the russels will have rallied for the exact % and exact number of trading days as back in the Nov – Jan Rally.
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/16/find_of_the_night.htm
For symmetry & wave freaks like myself that is interesting.
if you look at my chart SPX WEEKLY ZOOM in photos on Social you will see that this rally has produced no more of a result in terms of the weekly trendline break than any other. we have not made a concise break of the bear market weekly trendline down even after all this amazing hype and the banks are king talk.
great housing recovery footage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOney2b41d4
Idan,
if you look back to “double tops” they usually push up to 4% above the previous top and then fail miserably. i usually take half position at the even price top and then add the other 50% about 4% higher. many even push 5% higher but on very light volume above the double top.
i lost 3% today. ouchy . the rising wedge we seemed to have failed is in tact but prices are so far squeezed in it.. .we must escape it tomorrow at some point. maybe at last we see a gap down and a touch of fear in the bulls.
you know the market needs a new helmet to ride this special bus higher: GOOG trades at over 25x earnings, declining revenue, no dividend, in a recession!
The big money is five years out on google. When/if the economy turn around, ton of money will fly into google and the PE will be half.
It is just my opinion, but with options expiration FRYday, it only made sense to run it up on light volume since they aren’t worth as much as the paper they are printed on as of now.
http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSN1628637320090416
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE53F6VE20090416?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a6sv0hG.nW7g&refer=home
More good news at all the above, in case you hadn’t already seen it.
“Silly me — I thought the SEC’s rules apply to Wells Fargo, too. ”
quoted from the one article. yesterday i posted a “complaint” about the SEC paying attention to the little guy’s errors and turning a blind eye on the banks for the “greater good”. only the mandate of the SEC is not to perform tasks for the greater good of the populous. thier mandate is to protect investors.
what the hell is going on? alot of arm twisting is what im seeing. this to create the facade of recovery. and for what reason is now so important. i believe this is timed at the Spring Home Sales market. they think if they can fake a recovery during this key time a market bottom may appear in housing. it’s clearly a psychological play by Wall Street and it has the SEC backing.
im short the market for a pull back only. im not expecting a collapse in the market at this time due to these thoughts. we may get a pull back and sideways action for a bit in hopes of restoring confidence to the few consumers that have jobs and money to buy a house.
It seems obvious the SEC couldn’t find an Easter Egg without a preschool child to assist them. I dare say we need not even point out their ineptness. I am in retaliation mode with real estate so my trading is very bias for this reason. It is my thought however, that anybody thinking about purchasing a home for the first time could be worried about the low interest rates and where the loan they are pursuing would have its capital. I don’t see any potential buyer with intelligence taking any chances after having seen the risk over the past 2 years. Those of course underwater have to pursue what is in their best interests to save what is left for themselves and family.
When the price of fuel approached 4 dollars a gallon nationally, emails were sent out in mass asking everybody not to buy for a day….etc etc etc. I am sure you all saw these, more of an electronic tea party? Tea parties against taxes will not have the same affect of those if they were against the banks that seem to run our government. Let the rotten ones fail, so those able to purchase are allowed to make the right decision. Quit doing business with them, and they will go away…my 2 cents.
Found Some Moron’s Chart…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/SefeZBGgzQI/AAAAAAAAAN4/9NP7Zyz3jSw/s1600-h/60m+drill+down.png
Thanks, Shanky.
Being an American Business man that has traveled to China every three month for the past six years, I feel compelled to let everyone here know that the China explosion is a mirage. Not sure how long it will last but it is built on gambling with a “get rich quick” mentality that even Vegas has never seen.
The Chinese bosses save most of their money by spending little on their employees and their children (no 401 or benefits). The boss are gambling addicts and are now rebuilding to the brink of social evil.
True, the China has the biggest reserves but if you think they will spend it on the public, you are mistaken. Always be wary of a culture that takes advantage of its own.
Chinese money flows in a circular pattern through its State Owned Enterprises.
The US is not much better, but the Chinese stock market is freaking out and overbought. The only things keeping it from its colapse is the overbought US stock market.
Keep an eye on FXP (although it has some decay as well). FXI is its evil F’er.
Wow. Good post.
Short XLY
Just came across this:
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/04/16/find_of_the_night.htm
Russell 2k
That’s the same as a parallel-sided downtrend channel, which lots of StockTockers have been drawing and posting. Depending on whether the scale is linear or logarithmic, parallel-sided channels show repeated moves by the same amount (linear) or percentage (log). Here’s one showing how the financials have moved up twice and down twice by the amount of a 50% Fib retracement:
http://www.bestfreecharts.com?emailChartID=b8887b12-229d-474a-b217-acb685f9e741