12:03am
JPM has a bear flag very clerly and it might be breaking it… it will dictate where the market goes, it’s still hard to get long such a market. I added some puts on JPM with a tight stop. Cya guys later.
11:51am
So we still have our short as we hit the 61.8% retracement and are falling, we will take out our short once a break is confirmed. The momentum is definetly to the upside, held by the 1 minute 20 SMA. I have to go for the day, but we will be starting to place bullish trades on the table when seeing bull flags, like the one we have now in the 1 minute.
11:38am
50% retrace of the move lower today has been hit at 85.37$ and we formed a bull flag on the 1 minute, a breakout is inevitable. But this whole move up since the lows is on low volume and the 61.8% retracement will hold for a little while and potentially cause a reversal at 85.50.
10:45am
Market finally sold off as we expected it to, we are looking for support at the 50% retracement of the last hour of rally that we saw yesterday, that’s at 84.93$, and 84.68$ is the 61.8% retracement. Also if you take the retracement of the lows yesterday to the highs today, 50% is at 84.78 and 61.8% is at 84.51$, so we will have to see which one exactly is most pertinent.
10:36am
Potential H&S on the 1 miute SPY, but the volume to the downside was sorta strong and there’s also a potential for a H&S in the nearer term (10 minute span).
10:15am
TRADE: 3% SPY APRIL PUTS on at 85.22$ with a stop at 85.57$.
10:00am
Market still finding sellers here, this is a very interesting market, if we can sustain below the 61.8% retracement and show a nice bear flag, it might be over for the bulls. A sustained market above the 61.8% retacement could mean we’re headed much higher, this is why there is tons of fighting at this level and ambiguity.
9:58am
If this candle does not break 61.8% it might be worth giving a short a shot, with a stop at the 61.8% retracement. But.. it broke.. so keep waiting.
9:52am
The market found some support at the 50% retracement level of the move lower in the past 2 days. Hard to tell wether we reverse higher at 10 am, JPM is finding support at the gap filler though. I rather wait this one out.
9:44am
Can market find gap support? If it can, then we rally from here, if it can’t, then our old thesis is still right. I rather wait and see if we get a 10 am reversal upwards then play this market now. I am still holding to my JPM puts that lost 60% of their value (total of 1000$ position) as I continue to believe that financials need to be sold.
9:02am
We have a potential wedge formation forming on the SPY, held in by the upper resistance blue line of the channel, and another ascending red line that we’ve hit a few times. Assuming we break the 61.8% retracement, we could be aiming for the upper resistance again. Which does mean that I am potentially moving towards the be a very very short term bull camp, but i’ll wait until 10 am before I switch my views like that.
8:50am
Market found some footing here and is trading higher than the 61.8% retracement. It’ll be intresting to see if it breaks below it in the first minutes of trading or can stay above it and thus aim for the double top region.
8:14am
JPM tops forcasts but is trading slightly lower, futures are also trading slightly lower. This is a good indication that we have potentailly topped out at the 61.8% retracement that we hit yesterday on the last 10 minute candle. Hopefully we wil be moving lower from here. Playing short with a stop at that 61.8% retracement (85.42$) seems like a good trade.
up to the R3 on the cash futures at HOD/869. did ed short there?? lol
Made a little money today. I tried something new, I bought 1000 shares of both Faz and Fas and watched them move together all day, they both tracked almost perfectly (within a penny or two). When FAS started to run I dumped the FAZ and made $500.00 on the FAS shares. Just closed out the position, holding all cash.
Tomorrow is another day!
That’s a pretty good strategy!
I’m missing something here. Why not just buy FAS when it starts to run?
you keep FAZ as a hedge in case you’re wrong.
I still don’t get it. Having an equal amount of FAS and FAZ is the same as a neutral position. So you are going to hedge out your position so that it is the same as holding nothing? That doesn’t make sense to me. Why not just buy the stock you want when ready? It may sense if FAZ or FAS paid you to wait, but since they have “value leak” that doesn’t work.
Typically you would hedge your position into a neutral position if you want to lock in a gain but you don’t want to declare the gain. Since FAZ and FAS are short term vehicles I cannot see a reason why anyone would ever want to do that.
It worked for me. I was trying something new. I ran a couple of numbers and was trying to see if you held both positions for several days what would happen. First by holding both you are in and you won’t miss a run if you go to lunch. Second if I continued to hold for several days the gains and losses would continue to compound on themselves meaning that if FAZ was going down every day the % loss would be less then the % gain on the FAS. It would cut down on you profit but you cant get caught holding a 30% loss either because when one was going down the other would be going up. If the market turned strong in one direction or the other you simply close the loser. I felt a lot better too knowing that I couldn’t lose.
Can somebody read this and explain?
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/quant-intraday-market-commentary.html
Last month’s wired had a nice summary
http://blog.wired.com/business/2009/03/the-plight-of-t.html
A “Quant” (Quantitative Hedge Fund, e.g., computerized trading) is in the process of liquidation. They could be covering their shorts which is causing this rally to go higher.
Thanks. From my reading of Durden’s in the past few days, I get the impression the quants unwinding will bring us a huge crash. I guess we shall see.
I think it means this:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/quants-role-in-perpetuating-market.html
add a little TZA at 32.90
OIH breaking out. Targets 102 and 120 long WFT, NOV, RIG.
EOD Predictiion: RIFIN 600, FAZ $8.50.
the ideal play out would be to drop here down to the 850 level before rising again. we’d hit a trend line cross, get a retrace, and then be ready for a large jump up.
No rest for the bulls, straight up to 875 – 880 then straight down! Make it happen Master Woo of the Waves
VIX is .14 away from the gap fill from 9/26/08.
IM DOWN 3% … .earlier i was up 0.00016% … i enjoyed that more. something has to give and im thinking we hold this area for another 10mins at most. just long enough to flush out all the weak. of course, this idea is pure speculation and if we go to 875 … IM WRONG
Looking bullish again…..last 15 will be interesting. Again.
I Thought I Thaw A Top….
—– PBI —— order filled last of my put orders on this one
PBI JUL09 20.0 P
PBI.SD 0.65 Apr 17 FILLED 0.65000
looking back and watching and waiting for stocks to top out instead of joining the run has made me realise…. im going to make way less money looking for a pull back then i would have just joining the damn party for longer. i went long at 800 and got out at 830 .. missing half of the move.
Me realising that too … I bought C at 2.60 sold at 3.30 thinking that was the max it could go up … WFC at 9.90 sold at 11 …. sheesh /..
Richard my friend-just follow the trend and make money.
IYR has a lot of room to run…next resistence is 35, which would bring SRS to like 24
Who slipped the market some Extenze, the male enhancement drug? Time for some valium.
If you use DM with ADX charting. Take a look at FAZ on the 3min (hey that’s me). Anyway, the -DM line is heading for a cross over of the ADX line which is running high. If that crosses, it is the perfect storm for a fall in FAZ. It looks like it going to happen within the few minutes.
whoop…it turned…keep an eye on it for a reversal if playing FAZ.
wow…nice save!
it is an amazing ‘thingy’. Combine w/RSI +-50 levels, and run a 50 m/a TOO,,,on the 3 min. Heck, it’s almost as good as a cheeseburger and choc. malt…. w/ tater tots.
hate tater tots…bile burps.
Can you explain what this would mean ?
Anjali,,,on your chart ‘Indicators’, it is the ‘Wilders DMI (ADX) indicator. On Stockcharts, and most charting programs. Might be listed too, as either ‘dmi, or adx’.
——- APOL ——- even this damn thing is up $3
Woo, you ever see the Cisco commercials, where they send “Woo” to Timbuktu? LOL. Funny stuff.
yeah hahaha. i’ve seen those. i showed my friends, and they didn’t find it as funny as i did.
Count complete.
Come on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb6Ui9-GfaA
Good to see you, Tom. Hope all it well.
GOOG poopin
Look at GOOG reverse.. dang
Extremely bearish action in JPM chart today.
SEE POST 9 made at exactly 10 mins ago
That gets the “CALL OF THE HOUR” award …. gosh … I really need to learn how to ready pyschology like you !!!!
Nice! Just got back to my desk to see I’m in the green again. Woohoo!
Drop, sucker, drop!
let us know when you leave your desk again,,,,:)
this is my revised call for the close tomorrow : I HAVE NO IDEA (hoping for 825)
I am 50% positive that you are right.
“THEY SAY”…..”nobody wants to be SHORT before C earnings”.
really???
GE reports tomorrow, too.
Just got my granddad out of his GE bonds that he’s had since, like, 1985 or something. Were paying him 11%, ready to re-set. It’s the first time he’s ever listened to me … here’s hoping GE doesn’t report the same lies as GS!
86.57 is the Pivot Point Indicator S/R line for the SPY 2 min chart.
short straddle for me, sold both FAS/FAZ at 9.2
fib here…we’ll see if 864 breaks before EOD…
closed right on double top support
Futures did not hold 864 …. 862 ….. stay tuned. dont forget to wake up tomorrow.
Bearish outlook, folks…..Bulls did not hold it together like they did in the past.
Tomorrow should be a great day to be a bear.
Heavy selling into the close.
hint hint.
we might drop to 845 area only to form bull flag and blast off
just an opinion
So very nice to see you here again.
hope your right loaded on tza at the close.
GOOG 400
buy SPY calls
goog over 400 now, another rally day tomorrow
thats funny I have goog at 383 right now..
Has the methodical and nonsensical rise from 805 (still absent a meaningful pullback) really just been about the hedge funds and quants unwinding (selling shorts) due to illiquidity? Meaning, there have been no bulls to speak of, only shorts covering?
If so, the leg down should be pretty serious. I smell new lows a-comin’.
I was reading Dan Eric’s blog today and he says he received a letter from C’s top TAs saying we’re going below 666 soon. Dan BTW says he disagrees with this assessment. But it’s something to consider. I myself am open to the idea that we are about to start, or have started, the B-leg of an ABC correction, or, that we are about to start wave (5) down. The $SPX OEW has crossed the MACD zero line for a couple of days now and while that is sufficient to call a top, it’s very flimsy. Very flimsy indeed. So I think I have to go with the B-leg starting scenario as the most likely. Who knows. So much manipulation it’s almost impossible to call any top or bottom.
Interesting. Glad Daneric is attracting some attention. However, I added 1000 FAZ @9.something because;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN7MqRjy3cA
Flguy – lovin’ life!
Comment Page 5 of 5
Hello (5) of [1].
Good night, PPT. Good bye, C.
OK! So those GOOG calls did ok…..so far. Martini time!
Status: 40% short. 4% long (til I unload GOOG tomorrow). 56% cash.
Way to go…still long my leftover 100 RIMM 70′s…only their money…your 420′s should be worth about 20 tomorrow
dang i sold 200 @ 74, and 50 more at 79$
Not unless it rallies. Paid 3.80
Glimmer of hope for FAZ. XLF and many of its components, including JPM, got bounced off the upper BB. Hanging man candle stick for JPM at the close, which could mean a follow through selling.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98302213952
Mohan:
I got this emailed from Citron today and thought you might be interested if you have not already received:
http://www.citronresearch.com/
No, I haven’t seen it. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
I think, APOL is a major sell now.
This market broke the 8050 mark that I have been speaking about for so long and it just took off. But it has found a strong resistance at the 8175 which was support back in January. I think the market could attemp to break that level tomorrow (Friday) but if it fails I will be ready to short this sucker since a H&S formation will be in play. Watch for the followign signs tomorrow:
*Jump in the morning of 60 points or so to the level of 8175-8200
*then drop to 8025-8050 and then up to 8075-8100.
*If my guess is right I will be taking short positions around 8075-8100 on the second bump which could occurred around 11:00-2:00 PM. We will sell off BIGGGGGGG TIMEEEEEEE around 3:30 PM tomorrow driving this market down to 7850-7875.
Next week will be a down week as well I think Google will dissapoint (and the nasdaq has lagged DJI) and that will fuel more concerns. GM is still a forgotten issue and it will start its bankrupcy will still be around next week again. One retracement we need to hit is 38% retracement of this channel up from the lows in March. That stands around 8515-25. That is your target for the leg lower. I have been in cash this week and I think I figure this one out. Also the stress tests will show that bank need more capital to keep up with this gains and the Tea Party Event and public outrage about bailout will weigh big. I think the second round of money to financial institutions will not be an easy sell for this administration and that will be the concern that is going to drive this market lower over the next weeks.
Any opinions on gold and silver stocks?
Up And Gld should break 1000 soon
I’m thinking the same, some of the weekly charts got me cautious, but markets down into July, then it may be golds up.
back the truck up on gold when it hits 680…it will be there soon.
Just don’t get how you see that??
Do you not get Pete’s emails? If so, check out the latest one on gold.
I met with a broker today and he said he believes that an announcement of a GM bankruptcy will automatically trigger a 1,000 point rally because it resolves the uncertainty in the market.
I think my jaw hit the corner of his desk.
prob. time you get a new broker
Didn’t I hear that somewhere when Leh BK was going to happen? hmmm
The more irrational someone is, the more quirky the statements that will come out of their mouth.
hmmm GOOG taking a shit,imagine that
Someone whom seems fairly reliable (regular poster) on Evil’s blog said that Eric S. said on the call that he may be leaving the company, which is why goog just crashed from over 400 after hours down to low 380′s.
Did you see the Vol by Price on the DJI in the 8175 range, it’s pretty huge. I can see it being strong resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, April 16, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Philadelphia FED business conditions for April -24.4 from -35 – better than expected
US weekly jobless claims fell 53,000 to 610,000 – much better than expected
CBRT cuts rates by another 75bps and signals more to come
US Regulators plan to release Stress-Test results on 19 Top Banks May 4
COMMENTS
Markets were shy at the start of the day. Chinese data was mixed. Weaker GDP was tempered by better (as leaked) IP. But we close in a bull rush, with money running into the equity market driven by technicals, earnings and the usual madness of crowds. We all know of animal spirits — just read of tulip mania from the Dutch. But today was no madness. We are repricing tail risks and future growth; see gold down another $15 and poised to test the lows made earlier this month. What news shifted the story? First, Philly Fed bounced. Second, jobless claims fell. Third, even the bad news in housing starts was skewed to multiple family homes not single houses. And fourth, earnings from the big names continue to surprise to upside; JPM this morning and GOOG this afternoon. So the green shoot data continued to pour on a market prepared to be short the recovery. And those caught offsides have been further frustrated by the break down in correlations. The dollar ends the day higher and cross-JPY lower despite the equity rally. What now is at risk is value. The shape of the recovery is going to be the real debate as we close up another 1.5 pct in stocks. V … W … L? Most see this bounce driven by inventory draw downs. Companies have to now decide as their shelves are empty if restocking makes sense. Yet the demand function looks more confusing than the manufacturing stories. Savings over spending vs investing over hedging — these are the debates that will matter in the coming weeks. My advice: tiptoe through the tulips. Its easier to buy in the middle than at the bottom and its too easy to dance at the top.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.3126 1.3232 Close: 1.3171
JPY/USD 98.7 99.4 Close: 99.33
JPY/EUR 129.81 131.29 Close: 130.8275
USD/GBP 1.4838 1.4946 Close: 1.4923
GBP/EUR 0.8823 0.8871 Close: 0.8826
CHF/USD 1.1445 1.1512 Close: 1.1475
CHF/EUR 1.5105 1.5153 Close: 1.5114
USD/AUD 0.7138 0.7249 Close: 0.719
CAD/USD 1.1982 1.2148 Close: 1.2101
NZD/USD 0.5684 0.5765 Close: 0.5716
Market wrap
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIyxIImPWGY
Rising wedge complete. We drop tomorrow.
Treasury Department Issues Emergency Recall Of All US Dollars
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/treasury_department_issues
Funny stuff
You do know that in the 30s that made everyone sell their gold back, right? No joke. Then, the US fixed the price at double after that. Not too many know that.