Today the traders and I looked at some intraday trades that we made that were very profitable despite having an overall short term bearish bias. We were able to stop loss our trades very effectively due to our accurate trend-lines and were not faked out by the market at all. We covered our SPY puts position at the open and put it back at a double top level, which coincided with a 38.2% retracement of the move lower since the highs. We covered at a significant intraday bottom and were able to stop loss another trade effectively. The rally today ended at a 61.8% retracement of the move lower and we closed right below a strengthening longer term red line resistance. The rally started after the bond market closed at its lows, signaling that the stock market is taking its ques from bonds, and was able to be “let loose” once bonds closed. Todays volume was a little weaker than yesterday’s which can signal consolidation, but the VIX broke to new short term lows, which keeps us nervous being short. We do have some PUTS on JPM as we think the upside is limited but the position is extremely small. Today we also look at SPY, VIX ,GS, JPM, GLD and TNX.
The views reflected on this video are that of Idan Koren and his friend traders only and not of the whole www.stocktock.com community.
Wow! what a day!
Once again I have been in and out of my positions expecting the market to break down and retrace and once again I have been wrong. Still holding a small position in FAZ and a pocket full of cash but I’m afraid to place a trade because I know the instant I do the market is going to move the other way. This bull market (bear market?) run is killing me because my heart says its going to retrace as I sit and watch everything go up except my portfolio which keeps going down. When will it end? When will we see the financials retrace? Will they ever?
And to add salt to injury, the futures are up…..
Why not just get long (with some short hedges) until this rally breaks?
Idan great video as always. Did the drop in the VIX have anything to do with its expiration today ? http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal.jsp
Thanks in advance
Idan mentioned today, that the futures don’t matter until JPM reports… JPM will change the mood at 8:30 am depending on the reaction. And if JPM reaction is up, the financials should probably be sold short anyways before Citigroup’s earnings.
FYI JPM Reports Earnings at 6:30 AM ET, even before pre-market hours.
yep, just wanted to point out the same… will still be sleeping:)
will it be good or bad morning?
I think that it will be bad if you are holding FAZ.
I sold my FAZ at 10 on way down today, but I was averaged in at 10.08. I’d rather break even and miss potential profit instead of taking that risk and not being able to sell when they report. Also, some people are seeing a rising wedge with a bearish divergence on the MACD for the SPX, thoughts? I’m saying Friday or Monday we begin this down leg, for real this time (hopefully).
LOL
I knew someone would say it
well, morris, I hope your morning will be fine
I hope that everyone will have a good morning. You asked for an opinion and got one.
Of course, I could be completely wrong, but I think the JPM numbers are going to be good. However, I was not confident enough in this to take a long position in the financials (I sold my FAS position on Monday).
I’m mostly in cash right now. I do have 1000 JNK which did well today. I also have small positions in SDS, DXD, and QID. I don’t have a good feel for the market direction right now.
Cheers!
Thanks again, Idan (and crew) for making a fine video and sharing your skills and ‘trendline/charts. I will soon enuf be rich from what I’ve learned.
Morris,,,go to bed. We FAZ-hags that bought in late today are HAPPY that JPM will suck barney frankfurter’s wienie.
Quit ‘thinking’ …. You might scare the children.
Futures are dropping like a rock.
well, remember the guy who interned at the hedge fund? Don’t get worked up over futures at night, they are all being played.
Federal Reserve will arrest you if you take a picture of their building. http://goldenticker.blogspot.com/2009/04/reporters-threatened-with-arrest-for.html
on the side note, notice how FAZ/FAS first met at 9.55, then 9.47 and now stand to meet at 9.1
does it ring any bells? short both for the same amount of money when unsure of the direction, cover loser and ride the winner.
Alternatively, buy calls/puts as insurance to protect for possible down side. Delta neutral trade.
further:
In their quest to woo investors and clean up the banks, top federal officials are discussing ways to extend a key federal bailout program beyond Wall Street firms and hedge funds to average Joes.
“For retail investors, we want to make sure whatever participation they would have would be suitable,” Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said last week on a conference call with investors.
Experts say the government wouldn’t allow consumers to, say, plunk down retirement savings directly on a piece of a devalued mortgage. Instead, investors would be given the chance to buy shares of special funds that contain the assets.
CNNMoney.com reached out to 13 retail members of the American Association of Individual Investors, and nine said they would consider buying toxic assets if offered through a fund. Several cited fortunes made during the savings and loan crisis 20 years ago.
“Individual investors are starved for products,” said retail investor Al Blomquist of Allendale, N.J., a retiree who dabbles in investment managing.
Blomquist said a lot of his older clients whose retirement savings have declined are looking for financial products to give them better yields and make up for recent losses. “I hate to say it, but most of my clients only care about their profit.”
Please do not consider me as a trader or stock market predictor….
I just want the TRUTH to get to everyone and if I find information that can help you I want to share it.
With that said, I highly recommend you read tonight’s post on my blog
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
with the key story:
WATCH OUT THIS WEEKEND
Even if you don’t agree with the analysis you should know what the person who called the 1987 and 2007 market drops to THE DAY has to say…. If already posted I apologize….
Best to all….
Maximus
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
interesting …. thanks for the post
Interesting, just as the Enquirer or Star are interesting. Otherwise the key story has nothing of value upon which I would commit any level of capital. From the story:
1. The person who called the drops “In 2007, . . . Armstrong faced trial, pleaded guilty and is now serving a prison sentence for a further five years.” —Strike one. Those that can call tops and bottoms to the day, and have fail safe methods, typically don’t need to commit securities fraud to make money. They also usually don’t share their fail safe methods with the masses for free.
2. “his forecasting abilities and imprisonment have made him a cult figure among conspiracy theorists.” — Not exactly a crowd I seek out for my capital allocation decisions.
3. “there is another Armstrong turn date coming on 2009.3, or 19-20 April. What we have to figure out is which market is going to turn.” — The author suggests it could be the stock market, the bond market, the currency market, or a corporate event, such as a GM bankruptcy. Not exactly the precision I expect from a forecaster. But here is the best part:
4.”I should stress this is only a secondary turn date. There are plenty of examples in the past where nothing of any significance has happened at these junctures. In other words, they do not always work. But the outcome of this weekend, 19-20 April, bears watching with interest.” — A model that can’t fail. If something doesn’t happen of significance, then it was expected, as it was only a “secondary” turn date. If something of significance happens anywhere, then the model again predicted it.
The article was interesting, but not anything a serious investor/trader would use as an input for any decision making process.
GLTA
BIG BIG BIG DAY TOMORROW and this leads into opex friday and C earnings… wowza
JPM ,, GOOGLE ,,, and a crap load of lies to be told…. oh, did i say lies? … i mean DATA. Economic data coming out along with these key earnings should lead to an interesting Friday indeedy…. and im loaded up short counting on a 50 point drop in 2 days. actually, at this point ill be happy with 820 as i’ve sort of lost patience. things not moving along the way i was expecting. like they are supposed to
“i’ve sort of lost patience”…me too….lol .
Anybody catch SP Pinewood Derby tonight? It was killing. Trey and Matt said more about global financial idiocy in this 30 min allegory than has been said by all the talking heads on TV in the last year. Brilliant. And funny.
I have no more April positions*closed SDS calls for loss*, but just opened may spy 80 puts/qid 40 calls. Too much manipulation until Friday.
FYI both Immelt and Dimon are on the Board of directors of the New York Federal Reserve. No joke. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_New_York
If JPM wows i’ll wait to add positions @870*(not waiting for 881). Pop then drop/
Who is it that trades stocks prior to the pre-market? I see prices changing and volume rising prior to pre-market trading every day?
JPM 32.68, +1.86, +6.0%) reported a 10% profit drop, though that wasn’t as steep as markets had anticipated. In light pre-market trade, J.P. Morgan edged up 1%.
Citi reports Friday before the bell. Is Citi the fed’s scapegoat in this rigged game?
Just my opinion, but everyone in the world is watching this bearish wedge forming and predicting it to top around 870-875. I believe the bottom drops out today.
Here is a biggie, that has the potential for a domino effect…
General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy protection
Nations second largest commercial real estate firm with more than 5 billion USD in debt files for…
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/item.php?itemid=1046664
“The company had about $29.6 billion in assets and more than $27 billion in liabilities as of Dec. 31, according to documents filed with the U.S.”
GGP ticker
JPM trading lower…this just might be the beginning of the end. It doesn’t get any better then this, Citi’s earnings should be lousy. Are we going over the top of the hill? Only time will tell but everyone has been saying its coming for two weeks now.
Good bit lower; -0.56 -1.72% in pre market trading.
Along this line: Maximus’ post #9 is worth a look.
For you IYR/SRS traders. Brian ‘s video from EOD Wed covers both about 7 minutes into the 10 minute video. Worth a look.
http://www.alphatrends.blogspot.com/
Thanks for the link. SRS/IYR especially interesting in light of GGP (General Growth Properties). I’ve heard rumblings of 75! (Will wait a trading day or two to see true fall-out of GGP’s Chp. 11)
Where is the intra-day blog for Thursday 4/16/09? I have info to produce and people of importance are sleeping on the job.
Yeah. I’ve been up all night trying to be first!
So post it. You can move it over when Idan opens 4-16.
It’s sad… I get so excited now when my trades get close to coming back to my break even point… I’m so horrible at this day-trading and short term swing trading. LOL That’s why it’s only a hobby. FAZ up to 9.91 in pre-market… within 4 cents of my buy point late yesterday.
Bloomberg says “Michegan unemployment has reached 12.6%.” That is reported unemployment. Add at least 4 points to that figure to adjust for those who do not qualify for unemployment. but who are sitting on their hands w/o work.
Mortgage defaults hit new high
http://nctimes.com/articles/2009/04/15/business/z9c534f8aa44d3f0f8825759800649427.txt
This is kinda scary- a 17% increase in foreclosures from the month before, Feb. More toxic debt…
One thing to keep in mind is that a lot of the big mortgage lenders had a moritorium on foreclosures that recently ended. Therefore it’s best to spread the latest number out over a couple of months. It’s definitely a major issue, but this months number is shocking for a reason.
Thanks for the head’s up.
Capital One huge Credit Card charge-offs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/capital-one-credit-card-charge-offs.html
hey guys I have APRIL straddles on JPM at 32.50 strike.
What do you guys suggest me doing for exit?
I dont see much movement pre market as I expected.
I dont know where it goes from here.
Ouch, that is going to be painful. No big movement and IV Crush is going to kill your option value.
Intraday commentary section now open for Thursday.
Valerie, I apologise for not getting that post up last night. Spent the night at the vet with the puppy.
Here’s Armstrong’s article: http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html
Bear in mind he is writing from prison and so doesn’t have the advantage of a pc/word processor. It’s a PDF of a typewritten transcript. You’ll want to download it to read it easily. And give yourself at least an hour or so.
Good luck trading today, and happy trails with your pack of animals!