Today I just give a small update on the SPY as we believe lower prices are here to stay for the short term. This move is really potentially a longer consolidation move for this market 3-4 week market rally. I will start looking at strong support levels tomorrow if we continue to fall down as predicted.
Hey Idan, what do you think about GS?
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A24282
This is chart from trending123 (Screen capture of his video analaysis)
You think next stop SPX 828?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SeSXVF01SxI/AAAAAAAAI4E/yKDprDUySzs/s1600-h/spfutures.png
very possible..
You mentioned GS falling price. You maybe interested in this:
http://marketrubbernecker.blogspot.com/2009/04/goldman-sachs-and-financials.html
GS and the market looks like it’s going to go parabolic down
Great work. Much appreciated. Double top and down. WOuld LOVE a blowout top setting up a HUGE fall. May not happen. Ready either way.
After Hours Info: SPY is currently below the 50% retracement of 83.98. Also, FAZ is near its AH high at 11.33. Hopefully we can keep the SPY under 83.98 for tomorrow.
Thanks for the great video today.
Dunno. CPI numbers come out tomorrow and will give the bears or bulls a reason to move this market. STILL believe a blowout top is on the horizon to scare the sh@# out of everyone short, including me. Holding AAPL puts and waiting to add FAS puts and GG calls when appropriate.
Idan – thoughts on RIMM and AAPL ?
AAPL found support today at it’s 117.10$ level which is the 200 SMA daily. Now that it found that support and bounced off of it, it can fall back down lower. I will short any low volume move higher on AAPL, look for a fall to the 114 level AT LEAST before expiration, and probably will only find support when it hits it’s strongly rising 20 SMA daily which sits at 109.83 now, but will rise about a 0.8$ a day.
RIMM’s chart looks incredibly tired it keeps inching a little higher on lower volume everyday, that to me is a great short, but keep a tight stop over the short-term highs.
AH: SPY @ 838. FAZ @ 11.50.
*83.80
Holding any shorts overnight? So far, Im glad I am… Figure either gap down or open even for worst case.
I have about 2500$ worth of SPY april puts on overnight, any open lower I will cover them and ask questions later
Sorry Idan, I was actually in class when I posted and hadn’t seen the video to hear your were… Would you mind throwing up your chart of the XLF or whichever of the financial indices your are tracking to compare. Thanks
I have $250 worth of April puts overnight …. will follow the same strategy
GS Update
BlackRock Confirms Goldman Q1 Profit Was Non-Recurring And A Result Of AIG Unwinds
This is kinda a huge deal… Peter Fisher, managing director of BlackRock (yes, that BlackRock), states in a Bloomberg interview that Goldman’s first quarter trading profit is non-recurring in nature, and believes it was mostly due to AIG unwinds… It is a little shocking that BlackRock would have anything bad to say about the phenomenal resurrection of financial companies, and puts the huge “profit” in it’s true light. After all PIMROCK are the direct beneficiaries of the perpetuating delusion that all is well with the banking system, so it is odd that a BlackRock professional would dare to go against the grain on this one.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/blackrock-confirms-goldman-q1-profit.html
This may be one of the reasons … the conflict of interest makes it less credible …
BlackRock to raise $5-7 bln to buy US toxic assets
Would buy toxic assets from US firms under gov’t program
* Hopes $1 bln of $5 bln-$7 bln is from Japanese investors
* Returns over 20 pct, or losses, possible–BlackRock CEO (Updates with company comment, background)
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/reuters/MTFH47909_2009-04-14_21-53-47_N14442518.htm
FT’s Dizard
The big messages are that Washington simply cannot make all the bank bondholders good, despite its pretenses it can. Citi is going to become a test case sooner than most realize. Dizard also says that the charade that the banks have a liquidity problem not a solvency problem, is wearing thin even on those who have good reason to play along (and as far as I can tell, there is absolutely no Plan B when the world wakes up and realizes what a crock Plan A was).
Dizard’s certainty that Geithner and Citi are goners comes through loud and clear even through his elaborate prose.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/john-dizard-geithner-and-citis-days.html
Off Topic…But Fun
BEIJING, April 14 (Xinhuanet) — Thousands of dolphins blocked the suspected Somali pirate ships when they were trying to attack Chinese merchant ships passing the Gulf of Aden, the China Radio International reported on Monday.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/14/content_11184581.htm
that is a phintastic story!
Hey Financials good fall fast and hard they way that I see it. RIFIN hit 61.8 and dropped. Due to the parabolic rise, support looks about 10 percent below
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/rifin-could-fall-10-percent?context=user
Also, the F’ers decayed another $.07 today. You will make 1.5% per week on your money if you short FAZ and FAS at the same time. I’ll keep tracking it for a while to see if there is any change to this theory.
3min – can you elaborate on how you would play this … using options or shorting the ETF ?
I would make it part of a portfolio. Say, 10k shorting each ETF by placing limit orders when volitility is low. Place order at about .05 from price. They both should trigger.
This 20k investment should yield a gauranteed profit of at least $1,300/month.
Anyone out there think this is a bad deal?
Just follow the charts:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RHNYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16965038443
High/Low Index has a bearish cross at both STOs. This sentiment index never fails.
I expect it to fall for at least a couple of days
This breaking story from NYT might have an effect on financials tomorrow:
News Alert: U.S. Drawing Up Plans to Disclose Conditions of Biggest Banks
WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is drawing up plans to
disclose the conditions of the 19 biggest banks in the
country, according to senior administration officials, as it
tries to restore confidence in the financial system without
unnerving investors.
Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na
They will lie,obfuscate, twist the truth, spin it, you name it but it will not be true.
Here is the direct NYT article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/economy/15bailout.html?_r=1&hp
For those still holding FAZ, this might help:
http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com/
Does anybody know if it is mathematically possible for FAZ to hit its Fib retraces?…$38 target…and $60+ target?
No, no possible. Totally impossible for $60 and $38 would require a major meltdown of extreme velocity.
Talk about long winded however insightful (hopefully). Thanks.