3:59pm
I took profits on my FAZ and SPY PUTS (except for a few) and left the SDS on. In total a nice (2.4% Profit for today’s short). Video Will Be Up around 8:30 Pm today.
3:55pm
Break Even point is at about 86.14$ on the SPY, if we close below it, I’ll take some profits and lower the 30% short into a 20% short.
3:46pm
The way I play my puts, is I take them off as soon as my resistance gets broken, I put them back on as I adjust resistance a little bit for a new target a little higher (rememeber, a longer term resistance (2-3 weeks) can be adjusted ever so slightly and you’ll be off by 0.3-0.4%, so that’s how i’m playing these puts. But as of right now I am about 30% short. I am pretty sure this resistance level has to hold at least once.
3:25pm
TRADE: Short using SDS, SPY puts, and FAZ. With very tight stops. here. This is 25% of my protfolio short, the rest will go in at 870-875, with a stop at 878$.
3:07pm
TRADE: another 5% of SPY puts has been added at 1.10 a contract, when the SPY was at 85.93$
2:43pm
There is ascending support on the 3 minute or 1 minute, that’s holding the SPY up, as soon as that breaks the bears will shove the market down.
2:00pm
TRADE: I added another 2% to SPY PUTS here, at 85.87$ on the SPY. This is a potential double top region and we should get a pull back. Also any higher than this is the blue resistance sitting at 86.10$, I will really add a lot there.
1:32pm
Hey guys, A quick update here. The market opened lower as we expected, only to rally off at a 10 am reversal. The market has seen some pushes lower since, but that was only consolidation for a slightly higher volume move Higher to hit the red resistance again. The volume today is incredibly low, and even if we make new highs, with such low volume I’ll be happy to short. My favorite short will be at the blue resistance of the ascending channel.
10:24pm (Sunday): Hey guys, the futures are down slightly, however, we’ve seen the futures down for more than a 100 points once and then the futures reversed. Today we might see the start of a reversal as mentioned in my last video, however one last potential push higher towards the 870-875, to touch a strong resistance line in the middle of the day forming a DOJI candle is possible. I already have 3% of my portfolio with SDS. I’ll be looking to add if we move higher or form bear flags. Monday, I’ll be out for most of the day, but i’ll be monitoring potential short positions. Earnings season will probably be a very choppy one.
Cuba is back on the friend list,,, Miami just went crazy
No mas “el bloqueo”; Cuba libre!
almost made it to 865 R1 level Richard!!
ValorEEE,
We meet in Mizner park , once a month, I will be organizing a meeting here in the next couple days…
From another board I read:
“The top 3 stocks today for selling on strength were JPM, BAC and GS. JPM’s total money flow was $-319.33M yet the stock was up almost 20%. On 3/26 JPM was also #1 on the list with total money flow of $-246.16M, a 13/100 up/down ratio on block trades, and the stock finished up almost 2%. On both days the stock surged at the end of the day. Is this even possible without some sort of collusion? “
what blog is that?
MS now up 6.39% and was trailing percentage wise to GS 5.1%, no longer…like someone said, could be for GS buy the rumor and sell the news…
URE one penny below HOD ($3.63)…
Bought AAPL 125 and 130 APR calls to hold for an overnight scalp.
WOW , SPY running away with it today
IDAN, Does 864 on the SPY break your blue resistance line?
864 is where it was, and we broke my resistance by 1 point.
selling into the close, perhaps a nice tell for tomorrows action
been holding FAZ for weeks….can’t really bear to watch it go down anymore. don’t need a lecture..aware of the mistakes. Question is should I keep holding it now and hope for a reversal fo sorts before unloading….opinions?
it all depends on if BAC and GS is baked in already. I am looking to buy FAZ soon.
Thats the real question…..
and I would advise using SKF instead of FAZ
not sure about FAZ …. but charts look bearish, we are extremely oversold, vix up, gold up, oil down..
reversal coming soon methinks
You do not know anything..
Well, check by yourself:
Use http://www.bestfreecharts.com/
- Plot T2103 (Zweig Breath) and T2106 (Mcclellan Oscillator)
- Use the the followings MAs : 5, 10, 20.
Back test and check what happens every time in the past when those MA’s have a coincident bearish cross like NOW.
From what I found, what we have right now is only noise. The truth will start very painful in a couple of days
Niiiiice post.
Tanya,
I found that Zweig is almost infallible to predict changes. Usually it antecipates the market move for a couple of days.
You can back test and check that all big rallies or sell-offs were shown without any error.
Unfortunately for me, I learned how to use those indicators very late. At least for me, it seems that my PUTs will expire worthless next Friday.
Anyway, I think that now is time to leave the bullish boat
What specifically are you charting? XLF?
Thanks again!
Forgive me if I’m overlooking the obvious… I’ve just returned home and was looking forward to using your indicators, but I don’t see either in the drop-down menu. How do I plot them as you’ve outlined? The help section on bestfreecharts is, well, no help.
Added more APPL calls. Hate being on the green team
Where’s that damn martini shaker?!
when does GS release earnings?
Just says “before market opens”. I’d think around 8 or 8:30.
Believe 8:30 am tomorrow
I think it’s CC
They also release earnings tonight
I am probably going to add FAZ after the spike up from GS earnings in pre-market
I have been tempted to buy as well, but have not pulled trigger and probably will not. I’m not TA experienced, but my gut feeling is that it would not take much in the way of news to break this market orgasmia. If I was in your shoes and down so much already, I would probably stick it out until tomorrow in hopes that news will be worst than expected and bump FAZ up a few points……just my humble opinion.
THIS was supposed to be in response to #10……
you have no clue what your talking about
Well, would you like to share your interpretation of the current market psychology? I was simple giving feedback to the poor gentlemen who is down on FAZ. Been frequenting this site for about 6 months, and my IRA has increased in value by 10% in that time, so I must be doing something right. I acknowledge that I’m still in training, but what I appreciate about this site is that it is friendly and professional. Please go to another blog if you are going to be rude.
what the hell just happened?
FAS AH jumped from 9.7 to 10.02
GS RELEASED EARNINGS EARLY. 3.37 a share. WOW
Corrections: EPS is 3.39
ticks me off!!! why did they do that???
oh hai , faz soon to be trading in the 8′s.
faz and fas have blown past eachother..
OH BTW GS at 132.00..
i wonder whos short going into tomororW?
faz is up AH
fas is down AH
sincerely
LOL.
If the share price were low enough and the company were profitable enough I would consider buy-backs not stock offerings. But who am I to teach Goldman?
GS RELEASED EARLY..THOSE BASTARDS
Waiting to interpret numbers for GS. Release immediately after market ends….very sneaky though, isn’t it?
thought GS was reporting tomorrow morning…
WOW. Estimate was 1.75, Actual is 3.39. They blew it out of the water.
GS goes higher… 132 and change.
Don’t know where you are looking, but my AH (Fidelity) shows $127.30
now 127.58
i have GS at 127…selling news
Yahoo cheerleaders,,,PLEASE wave your ‘pom-poms’ when you post. IZ dat ok??
gs not real strong in AH?? hmmm….
FAZ just went positive in AH.
GS selling on news, earning already price in
I just bought FAZ after hours
Those kinda numbers weren’t priced in GS back to 130 AH.
FAZ at 9.27 currently…
GS is about -1.45% AH
Goldman also set plans to raise $5 billion through a sale of stock
this is probably the reason why they are down Ah
128,17 last print
GS top channeled on daily RSI today… Any time a stock top channels into earnings you can short it and turn profits. That is the easiest trade of all this day and age. Can’t wait until AAPL earnings next week. Look at the daily RSI on that sucker… Good luck tomorrow everyone…
GS conf call at 7Am tomorrow, 1-888-281-7154 call 10 minutes before
So WFC early, GS early, I’m expecting JPM to report 2morrow according to this pattern.
If I’m not mistaken, WFC was a general preannouncement and GS was scheduled to report today after the bell with their conference call tomorrow morning.
Point Taken.
GS was scheduled to report at 8:30 tomorrow morning.
AAPL up .18 AH
Financials seem to be consolidating, rather than crashing. If they leg higher, like everyone expects, how low can FAZ go? Is it a good idea to get out here, average down more, or wait for a rebound. I have been averaging down since the 30′s, have an avg cost basis in the low 20′s.
Thanks!
I had a DCA in mid 20′s and I dumped it all today. With the daily reset, if RIFIN rallies 10-20 percent more FAZ could hit less than 5$. at that point you would need a MIRACLE to ever get back close to your basis.
What the hell do I know though.
The devil is in the details. Might buy FAZ after hours….looking for a 3% move…plenty of time.
I bought FAZ after hours at 9.27. Next bank that reports is JPM on 4/16 (before market). I think they might be one of the banks that doesn’t blow out the expectations. JPM has more exposure to consumer credit than any other bank (I believe).
It is a bet and probably a good one. Only BAC is left with the huge dollar payout from AIG (via ML). BAC will report great earnings because of it so I review their chart and see what might already be baked in.
GS Reporting “Early”
Don’t forget, folks, that all the good news gets out in time for Asia’s opening. The debtors have to keep the creditors happy; it’s a pattern.
FAZ will be a buy at $4. FAS will be a buy at $4. UYG will be a penny stock. Sooner than later (this year)
I have a tight stop on FAZ, and definitely won’t hold it over the weekend.
something fishy with GS earnings… 4 months? losses not counted this qtr? are puffed profits direct result of AIG payments? just asking
Well, as I said about GS yesterday, they could report a 2B profit because of the AIG gift, but I did not figure an immediate sell on the news that seems to be happening…..oh, what to do what to do now….everything is a gamble these days…
Seem like the market is a pump and dump.
GOLDMAN ADJUSTS REPORTING SCHEDULE>>>1 billion dollar loss lost in the shufffle
per cnbc
To adjust its reporting schedule, Goldman began fiscal 2009 on Jan. 1 instead of Dec. 1 of last year. The bank said for the month of December, which fell between the change in reporting cycles, it lost $1 billion, or $2.15 per share.
Goldman’s total revenue was $11.88 billion during the quarter, compared with $18.63 billion in the prior-year quarter. Analysts forecast revenue of $7.19 billion.
GS actually miss estimate
Jan-Mar was $3.39
Dec was $-$2.15
Total is $1.24 vs expected $1.63. So lets call it like it is, GS reported worse earnings than the street expected.
Wonder if Wells Fargo and the rest will make these same “innocent” mistakes!
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, April 13, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Fed buys $7.37B in two- and three-year debt
Canada Business Outlook Future Sales for 1Q improves to -22.00
Canada BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey for 1Q declines to 60.3
COMMENTS
The holiday spirit remains alive and well in NY. Trading desks are gorging themselves on holiday chocolate; the Sully of the Seas, Richard Phillips, is on his way home; and most seem to be eagerly awaiting bank earnings. At the same time technicians are dancing in the streets as the S+P continues to make new highs (860 is the next pivot on the S+P). The question you have to ask is whether this is another “buy the rumor, sell the fact” earnings season? While it is too early to make that call, here is one observation — higher highs will continue to attract more buyers as cash cannot remain on the sidelines forever. With money market mutual funds continuing to see record outflows, investors are clearly getting increasingly frustrated with their single basis point returns. It is also worth quickly mentioning that asset allocators are more pro-actively managing their books; the evidence today was the strong rally in fixed income even with equities bouncing aggressively off their lows. Of course this could also be related to the fact that we are staring at 2 weeks with no supply, which is an eternity in this market. Looking ahead, all eyes on the MAS decision at approximately 8 pm EST tonight. Tomorrow earnings season continues with both Intel and J&J reporting. We also have President Obama planning a “major” speech on the economy as well as a variety of Fed speakers.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.319 1.3392 Close: 1.3359
JPY/USD 100.01 100.63 Close: 100.09
JPY/EUR 132.66 133.99 Close: 133.7102
USD/GBP 1.4698 1.4868 Close: 1.4831
GBP/EUR 0.8966 0.9021 Close: 0.9007
CHF/USD 1.131 1.1528 Close: 1.1349
CHF/EUR 1.5135 1.5223 Close: 1.5161
USD/AUD 0.723 0.7325 Close: 0.7298
CAD/USD 1.2166 1.2301 Close: 1.2192
NZD/USD 0.5846 0.5934 Close: 0.5918
GS, 10% dilution, dividend cut, hence the drop in share price.
Someone on another blog says their book value per share is $98 bucks. WIll do a bit more research on that one.
Tanya,
Use http://www.bestfreecharts.com/
- T2103 (Zweig Breath) and T2106 (Mcclellan Oscillator) are like normal stocks. Just search for those symbols.
- after this go to price link and “add child indicator”. I suggest those MAs : 5, 10, 20.
Backtest and have you own conclusions
A-HA! Gotcha! Thank you very much for taking the time!