US markets are closed today, but the commentary post is open for any general discussion.
Intraday Commentary ~ 04/10/2009
– April 10, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
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A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words
You should probably know that the U.S. currency is now backed by risky assets
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Et4TQ-a0gGU/Sd3W4pTjbuI/AAAAAAAABx0/Csub7EyF0_c/s1600-h/table11_chart.png
http://www.newsneconomics.com/2009/04/you-should-probably-know-that-us.html
Alex, be careful. This article shows very poor knowledge of the Fed balance sheet complexities in addition to the obvious already known MBS escalation. Crap articles will bias your mind and can cost you money.
Thanks for the tip. As you know, I am new to TA and while EWT counts are helpful to my understanding of what is currently going on, I remain on the lookout for (5)[1] (if only because of a feeling that there is worse to come). When I see articles such as this (which provide news or views unknown to me), I perk up (and worry). I post these items at StockTock to share what I’m learning; it’s my way of thanking you and others for teaching me what I so desperately need to know. Thanks!
Bloomberg News
Job cuts needed to stop NY bankruptcy: mayor
Sweeping layoffs of government employees are needed to prevent New York going bankrupt, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Thursday.
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Job_cuts_needed_to_stop_NY_bankrupt_04092009.html
Why did you start an intraday commentary today?
For any open discussion folks wanted. Maybe I’ll rename the post subject.
Good ole Catcow. An argumentative SOB. Cool reply Scott.
Sovereign Default Watch
[T]he UK is woefully short of foreign exchange reserves. At the end of March 2009, UK official foreign exchange reserves were $49.3 bn gross and $28.3 bn net. The Bank of England’s net foreign currency assets are negligible ($6 mn at the end of 2008).
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/04/why-did-the-fed-the-bank-of-england-the-ecb-the-bank-of-japan-and-the-swiss-national-bank-announce-a-dubbel-openslaande-porte-brisee-deur/
Anybody else think these bank profits will be “inflated” due to mark-to-market rule changes? If so, how does that play out? Rally?
Weekend Reading: Charts, Charts and More Charts
Charts: Japan as a model for the US and China (Nomura)
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/events/090326_koo_presentation.pdf
Sorry…Another Chart
Any thoughts on this analyst’s bullish take on the SPX involving “Golden Crosses” and the “Cradle Buy”? Thanks.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3413/3426386953_853f3bc81f_o.jpg
Over the last few days, the board has been speculating that we may be hearing about stock offerings by banks to take advantage of the high / propped up stock prices …. seems like GS is thinking the exact same thing
Goldman mulling stock offering – report
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/10/news/companies/goldman_offering/index.htm?postversion=2009041006
http://www.livewithoscar.com/images/charts/ForgotHisStops.jpg
That is funny…….but not really. Ever thought about what it would be like to have your “stuff” on the side walk right now! OUCH!
According to his latest video, he must have missed the long rally Thursday night going into Friday.
“STOPS ARE IN
EMOTIONS ARE OUT!”
A blog I just discovered devoted entirely to market manipulation. Happy reading!
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/
Thanks. A “must read” even before Chart School.
Good one Tanya! thnx.
If anybody wants to receive the daily and weekly citi charts, then feel free to send me an e-mail and I will put you on the distribution list. covers equities, commodities, currencies and interest rates.
Pete
gmellis01@gmail.com
Come check out my blog as well at askchrishetrades.blogspot.com. I follow ians videos all the time for the past 2 months. They are great like the great eye that you have for chanells. I have the same eye LOL so im going to be contributing alot here. ALso is there ahy other place to post comments or does everybody do it here.
Welcome! Known Stocktockers like Kenny, Daneric, Shanky, Woo have their own blogs, but most people post their comments here.
askchrishetrades. Check out Stock Tock Social (up top).
Black Swan Alert
The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans
“Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely.” These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.
When will all this occur? The quant trader I spoke to would not commit himself to any specific time frame but noted that a date as early as next Monday could be a veritable D-day.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html
PPT Revealed
Goldman Sachs, due to its preeminent position not only as one of the world’s largest broker/dealers, but also as being on the top of the high-frequency trading/liquidity provision “food chain”, trades much more often for its own (principal) benefit, likely in tandem with the other top dogs on the list: RenTec, Highbridge (JP Morgan), and GETCO. In this light, the program trading spike over the past week could be perceived as much more sinister. For conspiracy lovers, long searching for any circumstantial evidence to catch the mysterious “plunge protection team” in action, you should look no further than this.
Add to that: at least 4 of the administration’s economic team are ex-GS boys. We know how the first batch of TARP monies were used even if everyone’s mouth is sealed.
gm bankruptcy could be a triiger
anybody use bestfreecharts.com ?
im getting an error message when try to visit.
hope someone can check to see which end the problem is on.
thanks in advance…brett
Yes…it is down
Black Swan Alert
Rogue Wave
Today we have at last reached the final crossroads. As of March 19, 2009 the Correlation outlined above appears to have failed. For most of the past three weeks the US Dollar has risen in tandem with US equities – the longest stretch since at least April 2008.
The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America has lost the ability to leverage the US Dollar as a Tool to artificially inflate the US equity markets.
Phase II of this epic downturn –for which I believe the foundations will be laid between April 16 and April 20, 2009 – will contain a Rogue Wave.
http://tradingaces.blogspot.com/2009/04/rogue-wave.html
Black Swan Alert
NET Institutional buying & Selling
“NET” Institutional Buying & Selling had an extreme reading 6 TIMES within 16 trading days. We do not normally get such extreme reading until AFTER a new Bull market is started.
Net Institutional Buying was over the 3500 level. It did NOT happen even once during the last Bear Market and only 2 times during the last Bull Market. This is an obvious attempt to push the market higher and have everyone believe that the Bear Market is over. It is NOT over … I’ll repeat that, it is not over. What is also bothersome, is that these Institutional Buying levels are getting so little bang for the buck. What happens when they can’t or don’t sustain these levels?
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
Newbie As Doom And Gloom
Sorry, folks, if today’s three “Black Swan Alerts” have offended anyone. I read a lot of blogs and never before have I found such dire opinions pointing out just how much imbalance exists in various markets. I should stop posting now because these clarion calls have scared the shit out of me. Don’t say that I didn’t try to warn all of you.
Why Dylan Ratigan left CNBS…
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-dylan-ratigan-speaks-and-hes-angry-2009-4
NEW BULL MARKET…OR SUCKERS’ RALLY?
Blodget: Last question. You’ve been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc. So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers’ rally?
Ratigan: Suckers’ rally. No question. That’s not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That’s just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes… We’ve gone through a transition where things were getting bad in a freefall, and now they’re just getting slowly worse. So it’s a transition from jumping out a plane without a parachute, and now, after a year of free-fall, we’ve pulled the parachute, which feels a hell of a lot better than the freefall… I think we’re dealing with a problem that has a few years in it, not a few months.
Blodget: Thanks, Dylan.
Based on that, I would go long.
you ‘would’, or ‘will’??? I could care less…
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123913973889798435.html
Many of you know General Celente.
He is forecasting “food riots” in the U.S by 20012
He says “Real estate collapse will dwarf residential collapse”
I hope he is wrong this time.. gosh
http://www.infowars.com/celente-on-the-g20-riots-this-is-just-the-beginning/
http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html
Typo.
I meant food riots by 2012
Black Is Back
William K. Black, that is…in Barron’s.
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/