4:01pm
Today we will focus on the VIX, S&P, DOW , FAZ, XLF, WFC anything else we should focus on? email Idan.
3:46pm
TRADE: Taking profits on 80% of my SDS, leaving the rest for tomorrow . Total loss today 3.7%. Video should be up by 8 pm today.
12:23pm
I gotta leave for a couple, but it looks like the SPY is diverging from the XLF. The XLF is not moving up as much as the SPY, and eventually somethings gotta give.
12:10pm
VIX still holding to it’s triangle pattern despite rally:
11:45am
XLF at the lows for the day, SPY still holding much stronger than the financial sector which hasn’t even broken it’s first channel resistance.
11:20am
TRADE: LONG SDS with a stop if SPY confirms break on hourly chart of 84.30. WFC not as happy as the rest of the bunch.
11:12am
ADJUSTING RESISTANCE GIVES US THE NEW RESISTANCE:
10:56am
Market is continuing on it’s way up, failing the head and shoulders on the 1 minute. Failed head and shoulders usually lead to more rallies, I don’t want to be bullish until i see what is proper resistance in the market. I definitely don’t want to be bearish outside of the channel either.
10;30am
Things are looking more and more bearish, but we will find strong support before the SPY can fall back into bear market territory.
10:19am
More bearish tone is setting up for Wells Fargo, and Wells fargo set the mood for the SPY yesterday, we’ll see if this happens again today.
10:11am
It is time to play intraday trades, on small moves. I will be trading more than 10K contracts on the SPY on 0.2-0.3% moves. The larger picture should be reviewed when we stabilize and get more 10 minute candles in there. But it looks much more bullish than bearish.
10:02am
I am taking off my shorts… covering all of them except for wells fargo puts. Loss to total portfolio: 3.9%.
9:50am
INTRADAY TRADE: Short taking on SPY at 83.20, with a stop at 83.35, and a target of 83, and 82.50. Trade provided only a 0.1% profit.
9:45am
9:42am
Volume really weak on the way down for the SPY… and we are approaching our channel resistance. Volume should pick up at 10am, and right now it’ll look like it’ll pick up to the upside.
9:30am
XLF can’t hold gains so far, we’ll have to see if that trend continues. It is now trading below the resistance. PUTS continue to pile up on Wells Fargo, what’s wrong with this bank? Wells fargo trading with incredible volume.
9:12am
Will take a pretty big hit at the beginning of the day, I’m looking to wait until market choose direction at 10 am, but we are trading above the “BULL MARKET” channel, if that is sustained by 10 am, I want to reposition myself, and first of all have a neutral bias and not trade the markets either way.
9:00am
M2M approved . HUGE inverse head and shoulders on XLF about to break if we break around 9.55-9.60.
8:52am
Some confusion in FASB (you can listen to it live at http://www.fasb.org/action/mtgs_webcast&telephone.shtml) It looks like they will pass m2m though. I just want them to vote before market open.
8:44am
SPY trading above resistance. Take a neutral stance until 10 am. XLF IS NOT trading above resistance.
8:42am
Good morning, so far the futures got a small little hit from their highs as the jobless claims came a little higher than expected. We are still trading ABOVE the bearish resistance trendline, and the question is whether this will hold until 10 am when the big market makers get in. FASB is now in their meeting and will probably go through m2m. I think they have to make their decision at 9 am?
SPY lost the R2.
Come on 831.
Wedge broke.
HOPE I HELPED SOME OF YOU SIT TIGHT
now im full load for FAZ for the first time……. have hardly another penny to pump into this casino and if im wrong and we gap up tomorrow. very very sorry.
however, if you did follow my trade and we do gap up tomorrow… at most im thinking we lose a few bux a share on FAZ . im not wanting it to see $17.30 again until after OPEX .
GOOD LUCK TRADING .. after the days we have had .. should be a coffee day tomorrow.
another interesting note for those following the PM TAP trade
they crossed paths today in price … PM 36.03 — TAP 36.00
Thank you.
We might go down a bit in morning…we are in ending diagonal
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=25&id=p67861949509&a=164539238
ViX is hitting highs. I hope the dow crashes 600+ tommorrow. That would be nice fantasy pullback to match this fantasy rally
it needs a day like that… I would love to hear them say its prfit taking on CNBC
1000 … I want 1000.
xlf is using 9.30 like a crutch. it needs to break.
Maria Bartriroma is so excited she just pissed her pants.
http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php
Look at the sell-off!
BUYING SPY Puts for overnight. VIX and SPX up is a red flag imo.
Which ETF is linked with VIX?
VXX
RIMM’s bad earning and forecast could be catalyst to go down tomorrow along with unemployment.
or.. vice versa
Most beautiful head and shoulders I’ve ever seen, I hope you guys are holding shorts instead of longs. If you are holding over night.
Short from 835 may break. Trading based on Ichi Moku clouds.
I have no idea why people are so bullish. Look at the DJI , look at a 9 month chart. We are inside the same channel we have been since last September. Just like every other rally in the past 9 months volume has gone down not up as we rise higher and visa versa.
We are approaching the upper trend line on declining volume , someone please explain how this is some massive bullish TA indicator. I simply can’t understand why everyone sitting on a short position is getting off it right as we approach the only major trend line that has been consistent since last year.
Same with the SPX.
Blame the P2 fools!!!
the Government is thowing so much money at the problem, its making artificial support
Im still holding strong……
because everyone drank the cool aid….it was lime flavor…
bought 25 apirl faz 17.50 calls…
I bet we finish the month options wise right where we started 775..what do you think ritchie..you called the close last month..
care to take a guess…
made this trade as well
15 april FAZ @17.5 – in at 5.60
oops… i meant may FAZ @ 17.5
range was 2.65-3.90..
did you buy yesterday or the da before?
i never guess
me use my thinker. give me the weekend ….
Thank you. I needed that. Still holding ….
me too tanya
RIMM options explosively call heavy, doubling 55 strike and 5x open interest at 60 strike. Now we wait and see.
Almost had my 831 if it wasn’t for the stick save.
I’m gonna hit the links.
That’s Lancelot Link of course:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9Y0Qy0U20
I will put forward that while financials suck and will continue to suck and chop up and down (mostly down) for a long time to come…todays BS changes sentiment. It changes sentiment heavily enough for non-financial companies that I could see financials flatlining while the rest of the market recovers somewhat. A lot of the rest of the market only went down in sympathy pain with the financials.
I dont believe the crisis is over, and the longterm effects of this are disastrous 5-10 years out….but for the next few months I think we might get a spring/summer rally.
Am I a colossal idiot?
Yes.
er, no.
Well, maybe.
Don’t know.
Well I had told myself last year that when the G20 stepped in that would likely be the bottom. Also, bond yields are off their lows. TED spread is under 100. Plus banks are free to use arthur anderson accounting.
I expect a pull back from 840 and I definitely think banks are dead. But whats so wrong with tech here? Or energy? Look at a chart of the XRT for crying out loud.
Can someone give me a link or tell me the name of the bullish guy who posted a youtube video but acted like he was smoking something?
Is it this guy?
http://www.youtube.com/user/Bigwet72
RIMM exploding higher.
OKILY DOKILY … anyone who followed me blind into PM puts… hope this is not baked in
——– http://www.cnbc.com/id/30012925 ——- hope is a trading strategy
———- if PM hits $25 ———————- wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwww .. ill be rich
my puts JUNE $35 …….. lotsa time for these smokes to get soggy.
Qs look set to rocket higher tomorrow.
SRS!!!
Please any opinion what happened to SRS today?
It was disproportionately down compared to other ETF’s
REIT’s are not out of the woods yet, by a long shot
A. Market manipulation
B. Decay
C. Bailout from Obama on commercial RE (like everything else)
D. All of the above
I personally vote D
i am in the same boat as you, I am a Big BEAR on Commercial RE and have taken a 1/2 position today at 45.15
Looking for the commercial RE market to be head line news in a bout a month
If I wasn’t so obsessed with FAZ, I would be in SRS.. Tomorrow we have unemployment. Earnings is around the corner. Wait till next week. If it’s driving you crazy,, put your absolutely worse case scenario stop,, and turn off the computer…
FAZ and FAS hardly had any significant movement the whole day. Of course, relatively speaking, compared to the pent up emotions and expectations for M2M change. But SRS had huge down movement. So I was just wondering if someone had any insight as to why specifically SRS was chosen to be beaten down today. I would expect, if anything, FAZ to experience that today.
Are there any announcements about bailing Comercial RE that I missed???
FAZ and FAS are financial 3X shorts. The financials didn’t move that much…
some of you idiots have driven this board into the ground…with your constant bear mentalities and squashing of anything contrarian
about time you got what was coming to you
LOL…sounds like you are bitter
i love to be an idiot in this market we will see who’s the idiot when we crash all of a sudden. the fear is building, the panic will definatly come. Good luck to you. But i think you don’t need it since you are not an idiot and you know wath ‘s going to happen in this market.
This is not yahoo if you want to gloat or go on a rampage take it out of here. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion…
“some of you idiots….”
words of a true bag holder..don’t worry catcow you will def. be break even in 10 years..although by that time you’ll have lost 30% due to inflation..LOL
Catcow,
It seems to me you need to follow a different Blog
Oh yeah, additionally I’m sleeping with your wife
“sleeping with my wife”..
thats punishment enough..no need for comeback..
Get a life Catcow and find another blog. You need to get the boot!
Stops are in….catcow is out!
hope you did not listen to all the analysts calling out to buy APOL lately.
Cil, are you talking about big wet? The guy posted a video on you tube, you can search for it.
Yep, that’s it. Thanx!
Barring anything in negative in the conference call, RIMM options trading today certainly made the right forecast.
If you’ve got time please focus on Gold as well!
The BKX did not confirm the rally, especially when M2M rules are so important to the financials.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^BKX
I think we got one more sell off before the bull market. The financials must lead the market.
Today we fail to break the critical level of 8050 and we traded in the 7950-8050 range. If you are short you are still in shaky grounds. If you recently went long (today) you also are in shaky grounds. I am 100% cash and exited my longs (BGU and TNA) which I bought around March 12th time frame for a nice profit. I am waiting for this market to confirm direction and is 50/50 at this point. There a couple of things in the horizon for Bears and Bulls:
Bears:
1.- GM Bankrupcy is unavoidable is it price in? (I doubt it)
2.- I think this mark to market thing is one of the bullets they had to pump the market. That seems to be gone now. There is one more bullet though (see bulls)
So with GM now taking the spot light there is a good chance of a bearish outlook.
Bulls:
1.- The trend is on your side and emotional bears (the ones trapped recently) might be running out of cash and are closing positions.
2.- The other bullet left to keep the market from falling is: Uptick rule. This is brought up once in a while and might get thrown around if bearish tone sets in again.
3.- Seasonal trend is on your side. Market has a tendency to perform well in the spring.
4.- Job Reports. A lot of people think that a bad report means a sell off. I think it has been quite the opposite several times (rally). So I would not be surprise to see a bearish start tomorrow and then up again. Remember the 8050 fail but it could be retested soon.
Finally, Friday is upon us.
(I smell bull butts roasting over an open fire)
what are your thoughts on tomorrow ?
I’m swinging AUY, AIPC and 3,500 shares of FAZ at 17.00.
When I own FAZ overnight, I don’t think,…I pray.
Seriously, there should be some solid massive financial profit taking tomorrow at least. IMVHO
I don’t expect the jobs numbers to make the market move….just greed will do it’s thing.
Nice grab on the FAZ but with it hitting 16.99 in AH I’m sitting on my hands till the AM. Today’s start was uncomfortable. Woke up with a bag full of coal!
Hmm…says 17.69 right now. It is a shake out anyway. AH is kind of stupid IMO – but good for dumping.
I am with you with a large FAZ position as well. I think the big week for FAZ will be the next.
I was out all day but held FAZ against my better judgement. Really feared all the noise about M2M would drive shares down 30-40 percent today.
So imagine my surprise when I turned on my computer and now see it pushing 18 – a pleasant surprise considering I feared that I would find that it had dropped to 15 or 16.
Can’t see much downside from here, especially now that another bullet is out of the barrel. Plus, you gotta think there’s going to be some serious profit-taking soon on financials considering the recent run-up.
I could be wrong, however.
Wow now that we all got raped this week are we going to fall tomorrow or during earnings
This is just my opinion and its in line with previous videos that have been posted in the last week. Today we tested the 61.8% retracement of the January high, yet closed below it. Money in the banks via commodities was more important than the financials themselves. The way I have been playing the gaps is with support and resistance lines. Since we closed below the 61.8% retracement on SPY, I shorted into the end of today, playing for a gap down tomorrow. This system has been working. If close is below resistance, play the gap down, if it is above it play the gap up. I was long end of day yesterday, but covered mid morning based on how I play intraday (buy the 2nd low, sell the 2nd high and vice versa if short). The financials were week today aside from the open, that being said, I am heavily short via FAS puts. FAZ hasn’t been working as most of you can see. I personally will continue to short at all highs until we break out of the retracement. Be patient with your trades and let them come to you, do not wait for the next post to make a decision.
Oops, that should be “weak” not week about the financials.
OX your on fire
Only when I remember to sell…LOL. Best gamble to date has been RIMM, bought Jan 10-90 calls on the dips in the 30′s and those babies are on fire after hours.
Idan,
Talk about gold today please.
RIMM up over 20% after hours…all techs rallying right now
wow
I TOLD YOU RIMM was going to rise today!!
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, April 2, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
G20 to up IMF resources by $500 bn, talk of bond issuance and gold sales
FASB – “orderly” transactions don’t include forced liquidation or distressed sales
US weekly jobless claims rise 12,000 to 669,000 – worse than expected
US February Factory Orders rise 1.8% – better than expected
China March PMI rises to 52.4 from 49 – bigger than expected – first time over 50 in 6M
COMMENTS
The G20 managed to have an element of shock and awe with its $1.1 trillion support for IMF, World Bank and the rest of the world. The action gets the seal of many commentators and critics. George Soros says its more than expected. GS research suggested putting on “carry” trades via a basket as one of its top trades of 2009 post the announcement (Basket is long MXN, ZAR, IDR, RUB, BRL against short EUR, USD, JPY). The point of today was in the confidence building exercise of getting not just the G7 leaders but the EM ones as well (namely the BRICs) involved. The exercise bought time for markets to heal themselves. Throw in the FASB rule shift which allows banks to not panic into distressed sales of toxic assets and you get the makings of a big equity rally. The DJIA broke 8000 – first time since early February – S&P500 was up 4% but we close shy of up 3%. The sinking feeling at the US close is that the move is a cheerleading exercise more than a true cure. Spending money in great sums to fix those addicted to credit is like offering an alcoholic a drink. Might make the DTs go away but won’t solve the problem in the long term. Everyone knows that time is what is needed for banks to make money the usual way of borrowing short (at zero) and lending long (at something north of 3% thanks to credit). Even if there are trillions more to be written down then the market will just have to do the duration math. That is the risk at hand. The bigger fears of the world ending, guns, gold and canned food won’t be on bid but offer today – Or at least for the next few months. Key fight will now be in trying to buy enough time to catch up to the unemployment problem. Jobs will drive the market tomorrow and they are likely to remind many of the excess capacity that we have now and will have for a long time ahead. The risk of deflation remains larger than that of inflation and the lack of action in some areas – like that of ECB today – means more trouble later should the tipping point run towards a less orderly dispersion of troubled assets. Paying for the fix may be an issue as well but only if it works – so until then many will continue to watch to see if the market buys those currencies that ease more than others or those that grow more.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.3299 1.3518 Close: 1.3444
JPY/USD 98.98 99.91 Close: 99.65
JPY/EUR 132.46 134.23 Close: 133.9695
USD/GBP 1.4627 1.475 Close: 1.471
GBP/EUR 0.9087 0.9174 Close: 0.9139
CHF/USD 1.1307 1.147 Close: 1.1369
CHF/EUR 1.5213 1.5285 Close: 1.5284
USD/AUD 0.7067 0.7199 Close: 0.7156
CAD/USD 1.2339 1.2569 Close: 1.2413
NZD/USD 0.5713 0.5836 Close: 0.5782
I’m curious, if there was a major hedge fund redemption window this past March 31st, will the hedge funds be selling everything off with the market pumped up now just like they did back during the first part of October (actually the second week was the worst which we are coming into the second week of March real soon)? I’m not sure how hedge fund redemptions work. Do they get a lot of redemptions and then sell off shares of stock during the next few weeks because of that? I am wondering if our government pumped up this market in anticipation of the sell off. I’ll find out next week I guess.
Been waiting for a week to buy some stock and bought some FAZ today. I guess I could have made money actually expecting a rally into today. I was hoping for FAZ to drop to 15 but it didn’t make it. It appears the SPX is following down a larger trend line to me. Even if we are going to rally later in the month and next few months, I expect some major selling next week and maybe tomorrow too. I would like to better understand how these major gates in the hedge funds work and how they spread out the selling pressure afterwards.
On the SPX 1 minute from April 2nd onward it seems like a clear 5 wave motive up and a clear abc correction down. If so, the top is not yet reached.
Anyone????