Today we looked at the retracement of yesterday move. We started shorting early, but continued shorting more and more as we moved higher on light volume. Finally we hit the 61.8% retracement on the XLF and the 200 SMA on the 10 minute and we fell down on strong volume. This was the ultimate bull trap that we’ve been waiting for yesterday, and we believe the market should take us to new short-term lows in the days to come. A potential for one small little lift higher at the open is possible, but that will be shorted before it reaches 806 on the S&P. We talk a little bit about the longterm picture, and also at our positions. In this video we look at SPY, XLF, VIX, and GS.
Hi Idan,
This week’s Commitment of Traders Report shows the Professionals have gone Short again – to levels not seen since March 2002.
http://emini-watch.com
Long live to the bears!!!!
Black Swan Alert
Netanyahu’s Ultimatum to Obama: Either You Take Out Iran’s Nukes Or We Do
By M.J. Rosenberg – March 31, 2009, 12:58PM
On Friday, I wrote that I thought that incoming Prime Minister Netanyahu may have moderated over the years.
Not for the first time, I was wrong. Big time.
Check out this interview Netanyahu gave the Atlantic’s Jeff Goldberg today. Netanyahu says flatout that either the Obama administration deals with Iran’s nuclear development or Israel will have no choice but to act unilaterally (i.e, with bombs).
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/31/netanyahus_ultimatum_to_obama_either_you_take_out/
Idan, stupid quesiton… why do you talk about XLF as opposed to directly talking about RIFIN? Is it because you can’t get it to chart with TD??? Thanks.
Best
Drew
anyone really, not to single him out
If you are using DM with ADX charting, XLF is misleading on 10min and less.
I use TD and the symbol is $RIFIN.X
I have RIFIN as well, XLF is an ETF that most people like to use, so I used that, but I can do both.
The charting sites have more data for XLF and $DJUSFN.
Try this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF
Then substitute $RIFIN for XLF. You get data only back to late Oct.
Then try $DJUSFN. Its bars are placed almost identically to those of $RIFIN, but go back quite a few years.
So i always chart $DJUSFN or XLF.
Everything in SRS is in FAZ. You really have to be careful with what you are charting. Charting all of them are best. RiFIN doesnt chart live intraday on TD I dont’t think, VIX either.
either my eyes are wrong.. but the futures are already down 1% at 6pm huh?!!!
Dow 7,488.00 -74.00 -0.98
S&P 500 786.70 -8.10 -1.02
NASDAQ 100 1,224.50 -13.00 -1.05
Your eyes are correct
wow.. 24 points down from just a couple hours ago
Look at my charts on the next blog here and you will see why:
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/03/31/take-that-bulls/
S&P built a H&S with 2 necklines at the close; a double bottom in FAZ developed to match the double top that Idan mentions for XLF in his video.
so why not wait until thursday, the M2M news come out, to short then? or we are talking about tomorrow only? then we cover at end of the day?
M2M news might not even present a rally, market has rallied up so much in the past month that we might not get a rally at all.
I shorted GS today probably a little too soon. I am pretty nervous after watching the bulls push it up as well as they did. How far do you think GS will fall over the next few days?
Idan said, GS should fall to around 102-102.60 and bounce there and then eventually break and go much lower. He will take out his puts when it hits his support line around 102-103, and then put them back on once we consolidate upwards in a light volume (bear flag). Final target was around 88$ he mentioned.
Idan,
Very but very nice call on the 805 place for getting short.
I´ve piled on that and the market just boooooomed down.
I was looking for 800 in te morning and when we got there in the afternoon I´ve started shorting.. When it lost 800 The shorts we full over here.
Very nice call
dude the markets are falling hard.. almost down 1.5%
WFC puts, did anyone notice huge chunks of 10 and 11 strike puts on WFC?
I wonder whats happening there!
Here is a second opinion:
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/all_over_sp500/?campaignid=3
I smell bears paws roasting over an open fire.
Buy on the dip.
Nice Idan.
Your calls today where spot on.
hope it pans out the next few weeks like it should.
No comments on gold?
My last comments on gold, is that it’s too hard to read for the short term, I’d like to see it either move up or down, but right now it’s just fizziling.