3:41pm
I should have a video up by 5:15-5:30 pm, I g2g to a meeting. Rememeber.. TAKE PROFITS EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE!
3:30pm
I smell shorters abound. My favorite pattern H&S on the 1 minute SPY. Volume picking up.
3:17pm
80.50 $ is a 38.2% retracement of the SPY’s last move higher since 12:25pm that should form the first support. BY THE WAY, I do not plan on holding all these positions overnight if they become profitable, I will take some off, just to be cautious.
3:14pm
UPDATE: I am now 73% SHORT the market, I have puts on GS, XLF I am long FAZ and SDS. My break even point is just slightly below 800 on the S&P. I have another 27% to dedicate to shorts, depending on how this market goes. I would like to see a move below 80.00 to add more to my shorts.
1:27pm
I’m heading out for a couple of hours, I do my targets on there already. I’m ready to go short if we ever do reach 805, if we don’t i’ll look for solid bear flags to go short on.
1:03pm
Double top target reached, rememeber, 805 is the key place to go short.
12:46pm
Potential bull flag is forming on the 1 minute SPY, it’s pretty easy to see, that will also complete an inverse head and shoulders, that should take us back up to a double top region 50% retracement.
12:35pm
TRADE: Faz is forming a potential bull flag as it is hitting around the 38.2% retracement of yesterdays move higher (it’s underneath it, and that level has become resistance, but it’s looking like it wants to break it). This level is at 22.44$. I took another 5% Entry point. This will be my last trade for the day, unless we revisit 805.
12:01pm
TRADE: 1 % in GS PO (April 75$ PUTS). I don’t believe we’re going down that low, but volatility should drive those up the furthest. GS is trading below the $106 resistance. The XLF has only reached 38.2% retracement of yesterdays move (since friday), showing weakness compared to the SPY that already practically reached the 50%.
11:35am
TRADE: 10% SDS, 10% FAZ, leaving me with another 65% in cash, to enter at the ultimate level of 805, if we ever reach.
11:31am
SPY is starting to show a little more weakness, as it is breaking the support that has held it for today’s trade. We’ll have to see if this support is more significant, as it gets retested as resistance.
11:16am
Bulls still have some control, get ready to short around 80.00$ for 50% retracement. I’ll add 10% SDS and 10% FAZ. 805 Is the ultimate resistance, it’s a prior resistance + 61.8% retracement.
10:13am
This is a 5 minute on the SPY so that you could see what I see:
10:06am
10 am reversal forming some support in the market at 79.15$, I was a little early to the punch, we are now battling it out on the 38.2% retracement at 79.56, I will wait till 79.90 to add my second position which will include both FAZ and SDS.
9:51am
TRADE: another 10% of my portfolio has been added to SDS at 79.30$, I have a lot more room to add higher.
9:42am
I’m waiting for a bounce on a potential support level (maybe 79.15 to go short).
9:03am
Market is up about 1%, The best thing to do here, is wait for it to hit the 50% retracement at 79.90, or go in short if a bear flag forms during the day.
12:00am
Hey guys,
Today we will be looking at possible retracements as we move higher (futures are up close to 0.8%). I would like us to open below 79.15-79.44$ as those levels will be relatively strong resistance. 79.15$ is the 61.8% retracement of today’s move lower from the open, and the 79.44$ level is the 38.2% retracement from the move lower (on friday). Both look like good resistance levels, I will add to my shorts as we move upward. I will leave myself with 20% cash by the time we hit the 61.8% retracement of friday-today’s total move (which I doubt we’ll get to but just in case) @ $806 ish.
—– APOL —– FELL $4 ahead of earnings call tonight on above average volume. im not in the trade but if you like this kind of trade .. here it is.
Analysts are saying better than expected….which makes a person not want to touch it for a long trade!
They are determined to save 800. What Richard said earlier.
No stick save.
GEEEEEEEZ… I WONDER if everyone who trades knows this market is manipulated. and i wonder if anyone who has their RETIREMENT MONEY tied up in this mess knows it too. im sure the first group does but the second group…… they need to know.
IM ADDING more FAZ at the bell if we look like we will save 800
this barely saving 800 crap has me super bearish.
im not adding if we look to close below it.
At least here in the US, there is a lot of money in 401(k)’s (Similar to RRSP’s I believe).
In the US, 401(k) retirement accounts generally provide very limited investment choices – and I have never seen a short fund offered. The closest I have seen is FIdelity Contra fund, which is certainly not in the green.
The limited investment opportunities to prevent companies from being sued if the plan participants take too much risk.
In an IRA account, the investment opportunities are greater, but I don’t believe you can short in an IRA.
In my 401(k) I’ve been putting in the max (about $1,250 USD) a month. About 90 % is going in cash for the past 4 months or so. The remainder is spread along some long only funds, including bond funds.
The remainder of my office is fully investing their cash in long only funds. We hit the bottom, right? 30 more years to grow, all will be well, Obama said so.
79.79 here we come
on that last dip, the financial had nothing below for short term support. Now the RIFIN price is above the 20dma and just below the 50dma on 60min.
The maket is going lower without the financials……external forces are at work.
The Quarter is over.
Now can we all dive back down to 700.
unlikely.
re-test of november lows first .
Off by .06 on IWM close . . . it’s exacly at 42 in AH . . . gee whiz I wonder why ?!?!
that 42 target was on i traded last month on a buy at 40 and sell at 42 ——– dats a double top
……. have my IWM puts and they is looking sweet.
Richard,
Good Luck. I’m short 5.2K of TNA at an average of 19.78. Tried to add after lunch but noo shares available.
Actually up for the day on TZA which is a surprise.
Last hour was profitable…worth waiting for.
Did you pick up SRS?
I swore off that nasty piece…went with futures and puts…they were very liquid.
Holding 400 FAZ overnight from 20.52
I’m watching SRS though….AH looking really tasty. SPG is being shorted heavily by big boys.
I got some at 56 then 51, so avg around 53 and change.
I believe SPG is somehow associated with the Source Mall in Westbury NY (Local to me) that defaulted yesterday. They lost 2 anchor stores, Fortunoffs and Circuit city.
I don’t follow this, so this is likely “old news”.
GL painter (and all). I’m also holding FAZ long and I picked up a little more SRS to hold too.
I noticed you really follow that stock closely, sort of as your RE underlying.
http://i40.tinypic.com/wt67pw.png
I used ADVN-DECN indicator for trading today…unorthodox…with a chart, but wonder if anyone has ever done this?!
I don’t have your nifty all in one indicator, so I created a couple of hybrids on Stockcharts: $NYUPV:$NYDNV & $NYADV:$NYDEC. I haven’t used them intraday yet but maybe I should start.
On more thought with the charts I went into SRS AH…moderately and will add on weakness at the open.
I was largely out of the market the last 2-3 days, but bought TZA the last hour. Sweet.
doubled LONG OIL at the close… im very net BEARISH
with MX.TO , TAP, HOU.TO as my only long plays.
that bearish closing action may just be met with one more tiny pop to the uspide tomorrow (806) before we drop ……… the move lower is coming soon ….. im sure most here hope so.
Do you play DXO? Can’t catch bids with this sometimes…
HOU.TO for oil. its a hedge in case im right about a few more days of upside. however, im obviously doubting this more and more as ive placed my first bet on FAZ since it was incepted.
hou.to i hate that stuff so much…
but it’s a VERY good day-trader.. especially how oil is these days.. you can easily go up 5-10%
so damn volatile.. it was at 5.83.. moved to 6.33 thats 7-9% then it came back down.. wow what a day for oil
STOCKTOCK should really create a bearish indicator called NUMBEROFPOSTS indicator
when we are not posting alot the market is feeling scary bullish so as a contrarian indicator the low number of posts means the market will be lower in a week
Ha Ha. TRUE.
lol what happened the day we had like 650+ comments, i can’t remember
Do some back testing and see if it’s true. If so maybe we can get Craig to post a real-time var on the server that we can access through say Javascript.
document.write(“NUMBER OF POSTS = “);
document.write(NUMBEROFPOSTS);
RIchard, is a close below your 800.5 mark bullish or bearish (on FAZ) in your view?
im indifferent at this time. im looking to Thursday to give the answer if we hit the high . im feeling that we have hit the high but could have a tiny pop so nothing to really worry about too much.
Richard, have asked this question several times, to no avail. Following 60 day charts on SRS, FAZ, looks to be a bottoming process with considerable upside (15+ days). As I rarely trade intraday, have taken considerable positions on FAZ at 19.80. Am I making this too simplistic? By the way, guessed that both would finish higher at EOD than past day, and came to fruition in last 10 minutes. Your thoughts?
Sorry–past low, not day.
that is what im looking for … a 2 week spurt …. if we get down to 700 in 2 weeks expect a bounce up into OPEX week.
1. scenario… head sharply lower… bounce into OPEX
2. scenario… bleed slowly with many corrections into OPEX
I favor #2 with lower highs and a continuation of this pattern. Thanks.
——– APOLLO ——– hopefully everyone caught my warnings to avoid this stock on either side of the trade as they are reporting . earnings came in strong… see what happens.
the stock price remains over-valued at the earnings they are posting but this has been the case for a while .. the buyers dont seem to care .. so far.
what i did with APOL was buy the April $85 call and the April $75 put earlier today. I’m thinking this will either go way up or way down but not sideways after earnings and guidance. So if its guidance is either good or “not bad” (which is positive in this environment), it shoots up, if guidance is bad or none, it gets shot down.
very small percentage of cash used. want to try this out and may do the same with RIMM on Thursday.
good play. it is down A bit after hours on decent earnings… . the facts: even with decent earnings the stock is over valued. im not sure why everyone wants to own that hunk o doo da.. but they do. im going to play wait and see like i am with many.
800 close is bullish…the bulls kept the market from falling just like EOD yesterday. Today was not about EOQ. Any big EOQ efforts on March 31st would put people in jail so that was it.
Still, I think we are going to dive on Friday. The Capitol Ratio improvements that will come about because of FASB on Thursday are what is holding the market up…..so sell on the news should start Friday.
And we have the jobs number on Friday . . .
—— PM ——–
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/31/news/companies/tobacco/index.htm?postversion=2009033111
smoking causes cancer? you are kidding me!
No chart for this but Oil looks like it has a spill to clean up. RIG has a “bear”y nice feeling to me if you follow it.
Confused about oil myself. I think there is a good possibility of retesting some previous lows. Not just from spills…………Used to fly the shipping lanes looking for “leaky boats! and oil platforms” was just laid off from a company who does mostly crew rig changes and it’s looking pretty bear in the patch.
M2M CONSPIRACY THEORY
Drop market Wed and give ‘em “a good scare.” Ulterior yet transparent motive would be to provide impetus to relax M2M on Thursday.
this would fit my scenario of a slow bleed to OPEX week with many corrective blips. other scenario is to move sharply lower and bounce up into OPEX
Well thought out GBT! That would work… why not call it strategy rather than conspiracy?
Boy, glad that the solar was just scalps today. My favorite lil solar just puked AH (eslr)
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, March 31, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US March consumer confidence rises to 26 from 25.3 – weaker than expected
US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index drops 19% y/y in January – worse than expected
US Redbook chain store sales down 0.6% y/y in latest week
Chicago PMI for March drops to 31.4 from 34.2 – weaker than expected
Canada Gross Domestic Product for January -0.7% m/m – as expected
COMMENTS
It was a funny day as march ends and spring begins in earnest with shares rallying 1.5 percent and bonds up modestly. As usual this meant the USD was a smidge weaker but few would say fx was center stage even with the JPY testing 100 and cross JPY up over 2 percent. Perhaps today is better characterized as another unusual month/quarter-end for equities with a renewed verve for carry thrown into the sandbox. FX price action today was certainly consistent with these themes with EM rallying and the USD selling off versus everything except the JPY. Also worth noting that, consistent with what we highlighted in our London roundup, there is a tremendous amount of interest in longer-dated USDJPY upside as we face a new, yet incredibly uncertain Japanese fiscal year. While the Tankan survey tonight will give us our first look at what to expect in fiscal 2009, the backdrop heading into the new year remains one of stark contrast — a renewed sense of global investor confidence off-set by a global consumer on its knees. The risk going forward is a market dangerously close to the edge of the cliff yet unaware that quicksand is the only thing at the bottom to break its fall.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.3227 1.3343 Close: 1.3282
JPY/USD 98.21 99.37 Close: 99.09
JPY/EUR 130.58 131.86 Close: 131.6113
USD/GBP 1.427 1.4375 Close: 1.4345
GBP/EUR 0.9248 0.9318 Close: 0.9259
CHF/USD 1.1357 1.1435 Close: 1.1397
CHF/EUR 1.5092 1.5182 Close: 1.5137
USD/AUD 0.6901 0.697 Close: 0.6956
CAD/USD 1.2503 1.2653 Close: 1.2603
NZD/USD 0.5679 0.5731 Close: 0.5709