Intraday Commentary ~ 03/30/2009

By
FocalEquity
– March 30, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:40pm
78.68$ is the 38.2% retracement of today’s action since the open, sellers piled in there… I’m still waiting for a potential move higher.

3:04pm
TRADE: Taking profits of FAZ and SDS, Stop Lossed on GOLD (I will wait for the market to decide where it wants to go first). If we continue to trade below the ascending support (that now is resistance) tomorrow, i’ll short again.

I believe a move up for retracement on SPY is going to happen very soon as we hit my 78$ target. I still have 5% SDS left, but i’m looking to add as we go up. And i’ll take away all my SDS if we hit 77.17$.  

12:34pm
Possible inverse head and shoulders forming in SPY with a neckline around 79.10$. I actually want that to form so that I can add the rest of my short positions on.  

11:28am
FAZ gets the support it needed from the 5 min rising 20 SMA. We’re seeing a new move up in FAZ as the XLF tests the new lows.  XLF H&S forming. 

10:58am
Potential bull flag forming on the 1 minute SPY, I do think we will need to form some support level and retrace a bit of the move and then we can pile in with the big guns. If this fails… look for a nice buy at $78.00 and $77.20.

10:43am
In a way the XLF is looking a little stronger than the SPY (maybe because the automakers are not part of the XLF), but we have been ascending ever so slightly on the XLF while we keep forming new lows in the SPY. You should form a support level on the XLF, once it breaks add to your FAZ or XLF short or XLF puts.  

10:30am
Head and shoulders on the 1 minute SPY has finally gone in play, and now we broke the 79.20 support level, next support sits around 78$, and then 77.17$ will be our gap filler and our 38.2% retracement of this WHOLE move lower. Could you imagine that we would get there SO incredibly fast? Take a look at the VIX. 

9:55am
Hey guys you can see that the vix is finally reacting really strongly to this move lower, there is finally some fear. We are testing the first descending support on the VIX and the likelyhood is that we break it very soon.
vixrally

SPY retracements. If we think this is subwave 5, there is a possibility that it is truncated. In 1938, we fell down all the way to a 61.8% retracement. I believe that’s possible again, so here’s what it looks like:

spyfalls

9:49am
I want to point out that the levels of obvious support don’t even seem to be forming any support, this is because all the bulls are trapped right now thinking that the move was higher, but guess what, WE ALL KNEW that the next move was lower, we’re on the right side of the trade, and now we’re making money unlike those on CNBC!

9:31am
FAZ BROKE OUT of it’s descending resistnace line. SPY should find support at 79.20-79.40 ish, and then might rally a little closer to 80.60.

9:26am
Stocks got hit really bad overnight, I suggest at the open that people take a small short position, and add as we move higher to possibly retest some key support prices like $80.60

12:00am
Hey guys, I suggest you watch the video that I posted friday for today’s trading day. If we open below the support line, I will add another 20 % short, or go long about 15% SDS and 5% FAZ in addidtion to my 25% short position that’s already on the table.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.