2:36pm
Hey guys, the bottom of the channel has been tested yet again, and we managed to hold, yet the bounce off of it is very UNIMPRESSIVE. It looks like the bulls are losing steam, I am adding another 10% SDS position (after taking 50% profits oof thetable when we hit the channel). Once we break, I will look to really add more FAZ and SDS.
11:39am
Bear flag formation on the SPY and XLF 1-5 minute for the whole intraday. Also the XLF on the 1 minute is showing signs of a head and shoulders. Neckline at 9.36, target 9.23.
1:54am
Futures are down about 0.5% as we have finally reached the level of resistance that I’ve been talking about for over 3 days. If you want to you can look at the chart of the SPY:
Currently I hold a both FAZ and SDS but that only makes up 35% of my protfolio. I will look to cover half of those positions if we hit the ascending support line of the ascending channel, and will look to sell short yet again at a higher level. I will look to add to my short if we trade slightly above my descending resistance line. And will look to add another 30-40% if we break the ascending support.
XLF breaking to new lows of the day.
i am holding puts.
I think we gap down monday
breaking upward channel?????
Davlee,
Did you get out of your 5K SRS yet?
No.. Still in at $56.50. Was sitting pretty when it was at $70..
I work for a securities firm so we have a 60 day holding period so I can’t dump this till early May. I can buy puts to cover it though if necessary.
SRS is really my play that Commercial Real Estate is going to keep diving for the rest of the year.
I’ve been buying Calls and Puts and then creating spreads out of them in my options account. My XLF $8 June calls were a great pickup when XLF was at $5.88. Looking to sell some XLF puts next Friday on the next leg down.
I have SRS at 58.48. I held too.
The options on SRS are just too pricey. I’m hoping to sell 1600 XLF June $7 puts at $1.00. My count says the market drops to 750 to 770 next week.
If market goes up I’ll clear $160,000 on the puts which covers any SRS losses down to $20. If the market goes down then XLF would have to drop below $6 for me to lose money on the puts, but then SRS will be up like 75%.
I had a bad feeling when I picked up SRS, but it was just too tempting after watching it drop from $110 when I sold it..
I have DAL call as hedge. DAL forming cup and handle
I bailed-out with a pretty good loss. It’s just amazing how the 81.40 on the SPY continues to support. That trendline is determined to hold up this market.
it was a little too amazing for me. PPT, anyone???
I remember when people kept trying to wait till 620 and bellow to go long, now people are waiting till 840 or 870 to go short. Who knows if it’ll even get up there, but if you short here and it keeps going the opposite direction, you’ll at least be able to have a good exit cause it should come back to this level. On the daily it really looks like it’s about to roll over, but I guess we’ll see next week.
I think we dogpaddle until 4/1; the quarter ends and most customers are furious about their accounts and the big losses, so I think they (the big boys) keep it up or we go sideways; I don’t think we really drop down until after quarter ends. Most people have been afraid to look at their accounts… ouch!
I never even look at fundamentals, cause I’ll have a million theories and it’s never worked for me. i.e. I guessed what the market will do because it’s options x week. I was always wrong looking at just fundamentals. I try to stick to the charts and try to go with low risk high reward. It just seems like people try to spot the absolute bottom and absolute top, and I find it quite impossible.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/will-financials-stay-flat
http://stocktock.ning.com/photo/time-to-sell-conventional
IF we go up on monday we won’t see a higher high. 832,89 is the high of this bear really
don’t fall in love with the upside
IM NOT LOOKING FOR 840 PER SE ( 840 – 850 range )
but first im looking for 836.16 to clear …. that is the rally key for me —— ill re-evaluate if we print this #. we have come very close…. so maybe that was good enough. shorted above 830 so i feel safe and most of my long positions are from below 813 …..
——– 836.16 —— it will be so magical
We still have end of quarter window dressing to deal with next week.. I want to short this so bad.. Comercial Real Estate .. I’m shorting you to double
my money.. Just ask Mr. LeFrak..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1031245234&play=1
I also think around 840sp500 will be critical for any direction. There is cross of 100 MAV, resistance from double-bottom from Oct, right before apex of the wedge, and main downtrend channel (my version
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, March 27, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March 57.3 – better than expected
US Consumer Spending up 0.2% in February – as expected
German FinMin Steinbrueck: Euro stability at risk if debt rules not taken seriously
FT – Former FED Greenspan: Recommends graduated bank capital requirements to reduce size
COMMENTS
Theme of the week and maybe the month – Quantitative Easing. As the global forecasts sank to negative growth as a consensus, the cyclical indicators began to turn. Some would say this is the curse of economics as models turn markets turn faster. The confusion rests with whether the stimulus and easing plans of central bankers will continue the natural power of business cycles to self-correct. Many bulls argue that this week was about the “better” data – but the absolute level of activity jumping from 40 year to 30 year lows isn’t comforting. We are merely suggesting that capitalism – the new evil – works. If companies fire enough people, ditch enough inventory then they may stabilize their profits at significantly lower levels. Sustainable growth – aka Fairy Tales of Goldilocks or Little Red Riding Hood – searches for 2% or lower inflation and full employment. So far we see negative CPI and 10% unemployment. So why did the EUR panic and sell off today and the USD rally back significantly making technical types sweat and risk takers moan? Answer – the deflation that seems cooked into the world isn’t yet gone as is evident from the $2 bbl oil price drop, the stability in bonds and the pullback in equity prices. The USD is the global reserve currency still and despite the banter of appeasing China with SDR dreams the real world holds its debt in USD or EUR – making the race of watching EUR or USD a bit sickening. But today was also about month-end, quarter-end and Japanese year-end flows. The rush of money trying to fill the holes in battered portfolios goes to the losers at the expense of the winners. Themes that stand out from this frenetic activity: 1) Speculators are likely to be wary – as redemptions at hedge funds and the value of putting money at risk chasing momentum proves less lucrative. Better to have the Beta than lose in Alpha. 2) How do you measure the success or failure of QE? The GS Research Team has come up with a number of tools – FCI the old point, PBR the new one. The goal of trying to measure if the FED is successful in dropping the price of money is key for determining the price of the USD. So FX is self-reflective on QE. As the USD rallies, QE fails. 3) Isn’t it about credit not money? The trouble with the FED and US Treasury plans is that they aim to restart the global credit markets. Their tools are limited to the US monetary policy tool kit. The need for the ECB and others to do more seems obvious and more clear than ever today with the drop in German CPI, the continued drop in Japan retail spending and the fact that the US consumer continues to increase their savings. All told – the fear of QE seems overblown given the circumstances of where we are and where we are going. The weekend could be darker and scarier than the Forest of Red Riding Hood as economic commentary will support the price action of the bulls – with the 25% rally back in shares de facto proof that all is well even as Grandma shows her teeth.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.3256 1.347 Close: 1.3304
JPY/USD 97.1 98.32 Close: 98.04
JPY/EUR 129.39 132.33 Close: 130.4324
USD/GBP 1.427 1.4359 Close: 1.4303
GBP/EUR 0.9251 0.9391 Close: 0.9302
CHF/USD 1.1338 1.1483 Close: 1.1425
CHF/EUR 1.5172 1.5278 Close: 1.52
USD/AUD 0.6867 0.697 Close: 0.6919
CAD/USD 1.2325 1.2445 Close: 1.2371
NZD/USD 0.567 0.5739 Close: 0.5702
Nice to see you around, Pete. Thanks also for the email updates. We appreciate your efforts.