2:42pm
I have taken one last short, and i’m putting my stop when the Dow Gets to it’s 61.8% retracement.
2:21pm
With the fed meeting out of the way, is there another catalyst out there?
2:03pm
Reversal time… lets see what the bears can do here. Also I want to point out, that we could be forming a massive head and shoulders of 4-5 days length. The first shoulder being the one formed when the bears pushed the indexes 3 % in 2 hours, and the head is being formed right now, and then we’ll have a shoulder later on. The reason I think this way is because the volume to the upside tend to be very light and sustainable with bull flags, while the downside has huge volumes and has the smallest bull flags ever which can forcast the strength of the bears to come.
11:38am
Hey I have to leave for the day. But keep in mind that there is a head and shoulders out there. The bears have not fully piled in yet, and it seems like they might be waiting for the 795-804 level. Up to that level I feel comfortable shorting the market, my stops are right aboe that level. I’ll look to add some more shorts if the bears really pile in or if we get up to that level.
10:58am
Market is moving up incredibly fast, hitting up the 61.8% retracement of todays move lower already. A break can send us to a double top or gap filling area.
10:53am
Market hitting up against a 38.2% retracement of the intraday move lower, and finding resistance there in the form of a potential bull flag.
10:49am
The hit of the 38.2% retracement also coincided with the 50% retracement of the move lower of subwave 3. This formed a potential reversal up here. Remember today is fed’s decision!
10:42am
Hey guys, I read about the frustration, and I never hide away from a wrong analysis, I’ve come out with videos saying i’m wrong. Thankfully though, we’re not necessarily wrong. The double top area did work, and so we could still have begun subwave 5 now. The reason I was out for about 19 hours is because of a medical issue and i’m sorry for that. We continue to monitor this push lower. We hit a 38.2% retracement of yesterdays move higher and a forming a potential bear flag
.
—- big volume today on the SPX —
Yesterday I bought into SRS at the close – got out this AM in the deep green.
This afternoon? Maybe not.
holding nothing overnight. traded sso and tdw today – long.
Valerie,
i know what you mean… that SRS is so tempting. almost pulled the trigger but maybe ill wait until Friday… see if they want more out of this. doesnt make sense to want more than a 790 close for Friday but not everything has to make sense to me now does it. im happy with my trades today
takes alot for me to go long this market even for a day trade.
FAZ seems like a great buy low $26′s Any agree or should I not hold overnight here?
Seems like a great move to me. Dont let the momentary bullishness cloud your thinking. Removing assets from the banks will force more deleveraging. This shouldnt be interpreted as bullish.
—— guess the close ——– 791.80
795
790.76
the IYR is setting at the neckline of a month long inverse h&s.
or
creating the head of a month long h&s.
SRS holders hang in the balance
All cash. Almost grabbed some CVX puts, but my luck with oil hasn’t been too great. Martini time. I can hear Kudlow and Cramer now….the new bull market!
all things considered the bulls really had a chance to go full throttle today and imo i would be a little weary of the action not spurring on a greater rally.
FAZ closed at $26.24 … am i reading this right? holy crap. guess everything in the world is all better already after all.
They pushed the FAZ through some stops right under the old 52 week low. It set off a crescendo…and now people dont want to touch it.
That means its time to buy it!!!!
got stopped out on a day trade ….shit….loss 4 points…
or keep it
The 52 week low list is not a place to look for stocks to buy.
Why not buy stocks or ETF’s that are above their appropriate moving averages? Or those that are being bought on rising volume? Or those that are breaking out of favorable TA patterns and setups?
I never understood the fascination with stocks or ETF’s that are breaking down. Its akin to the gambler in Vegas that has watched Red hit 7 times in a row, and he plunks everything down on Black, saying it “can’t possibly hit red 8 times in a row”, until it of course does and wipes out the mathematician.
There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are no old bold traders.
“Why not buy stocks or ETF’s that are above their appropriate moving averages? Or those that are being bought on rising volume? Or those that are breaking out of favorable TA patterns and setups?”
Talk about bold! Those strategies will get you in at the end of the move EVERY single time!!!
I am sorry. I thought this was a TA site. My bad.
3X ETFs have no respect for moving averages, take the 1 year FAZ or SRS charts; even the 200ma is just bashed through 1 way or the other.
TA was the only strategy you mentioned that had any merit, but even there you said not until it breaks out of the pattern. Im sorry but that will only get you in for the last few bucks of a move, and thats if youre lucky. Youre more often than not going to get long just in time for it to turn back down and retest the resistance it just broke.
You need to get in on moves that have Risk/Reward in their favor. At 26, even if FAZ potentially goes to zero, thats 26 down, and 64 up (assuming 100 is a reasonable target…it may or may not be at this point….we’ll see).
But FAZ isnt going to zero….AND you can always set a stop at your maximum pain level. The point is, risk to reward is on the short side right now (in my humble opinion). Whoever is going long at resistance with the put call ratio so heavily in favor of calls needs to rethink that mistake.
How did this work out?
I can not pull any charts before Nov.,2008 on FAZ—think this is a fairly new 3x. Any one having same problem?
Because it didn’t exist before then…
Yeah, I’m in just 50 shares at $33.11. Would love to get some suggestions on whether to hold or try to get rid of these in the AM at a loss. I don’t mind holding for a while…weeks if necessary but if it’s just going to keep bleeding me to death then maybe I’d be better off to take the hit now. It seems I’m always a dollar short and a day late with my trades, maybe need to give up daytrading. Any advice here would be much appreciated.
on my time model, i was for a new low in the market on April 9, but after today I am not as sure….let see the next 2 days.
maybe I try again in some FAZ….
Advice: Not about giving up daytrading, but what to do with FAZ
Shorting financials right now is like picking a fight with a very angry bully!
There are safer sectors in which to play.
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/
You can always buy back in when it starts to go back up.
You cannot always sell before it goes lower…
Pain taught me that !
Too bad It took so long for me to get that message.
Maybe you are not so dumb as me…
Let me try again !
You can always buy back in when it starts to go back up.
You cannot always sell AFTER it goes lower…
Pain taught me that !
Too bad It took so long for me to get that message.
Maybe you are not so dumb as me…
I dumped my FAZ yesterday before the nose dive, took a small loss.
I can now buy the same number of shares for a lot less money and still effectively hold the same position but for less of an investment.
This translates to a larger profit when it bounces back.
A shame to go thru hell for this info but I did.
Capitol Preservation is job one.
Does this board allow HTML Tags ?
if so then :
some financial sotck PE is almost 20, that is really too high
you are kidding
R(pb):
i got out too early because Cobra indicated last pm that Bulls should take gains and exit by 2pm due to Fed meeting he anticipated reversal with lower close eod…YOU are my new Guru, i’m on sidelines waiting for clarity and direction but may daytrade in range bound market be it north or south….long some corporates and treasuries which were up today…thanks and waiting and watching for HP/HP trades like Prof Uner says…congrats!
HP/HP = High Probability / High Payoff Trades
Patience, Patience, Patience.
long a little DBC commodoties index fund up 10% over two weeks…
I am very bullish on gold equities based on today’s price action. The gold price jumped $60 in a few hours from $885 to $945. The US dollar index fell from 86.5 to just above 84 as the dollar fell against all major currencies. The Fed printing $1 trillion of money is a huge positive for gold.
When the gold price dropped from $1000 to $885 in the last few weeks, gold mining companies dropped by about 30% to 35%. Today, most gold miners prices jumped by about 8% to 9%. I think there more upside there. I am long ABX
A great buy for gold is hgu.to
its double elverege on all canadian gold mines.
it went up 15% today and because its in can$ it protects you against the us$.
a good chunk of my long term portfolio is in HGU.to
Looking forward to tomorrow (tonight’s) call by Oscar. His OMNI moving average is right at 800ish
If you are bearish, look at the fertilizer stocks like POT and AGU. On a huge up day, they fell
Look at BIDU..another high flier that wouldn’t go up today. 176 is the current ceiling for that stock and we are there.
Kenny looks like he’s in the bears corner now too so we shall see.
Citi, Morgan Stanley Running Short On Shares To Pay Bonuses – thoughts ?
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903181556DOWJONESDJONLINE000921_FORTUNE5.htm
Seems almost hard to believe. That would cause serious dilution. I read it and it says C would go to 40B shares from 15B. How could that have been a secret until now?
More important, what will this news, released near the closing bell do to the banking index tomorrow ?
Seems to me something they would want to keep secret as long as possible, why is it out now ?
XLF, SKF, UYG, FAS, and FAZ are ALL down a bit in after-hours trading. Insane.
Just wait until the PM of China wakes up! He is going to be pissed off.
Uner, no tennis today. Am still following the macro approach to situation. Picked up some more FAZ (20s) today, per your recent posts. Can afford to hold for period of time to allow market manipulation its course. By the way, hope you also had some good cheese in that area–been there.
Many stocks I follow – SKF, ICE, FAS, CME to name a few, have closed at prices that give them another 4-7 days to continue to rise. The uptrend could bring FAS, for example, to $7.5 within the next 3-4 days(could do it tomorrow). I bought ICE 100 85 calls at .15(target .60 +), and 100 FAS 7.5 calls at .25(target .50 to $1.00). I also bought a call on the SKF 120, at $3.00.
It angers me that bulls can enter the FAS market at 7.50$ when this was 2.50$, still thinking they’re making money.
Tomorrow is the 9th day (IF BULLISH) of a upwards trend.
Charles dow said the maximum was 8.
WHY risk maybe a 1 $ on the FAS, when the downside is probably at least 35-40$ tomorrow on FAZ
BTW, I have been in and out from $3 on FAS to where it is now.
Do you want me to tell you how I have done?
The purpose of my post is to start a history on this blog of my picks.
my message wasnt gearred to you..
it was more a general statement.
do you think it establishes a history if you say hey I was long at 3 bucks as the stock sits at 7…to me that doesn’t establish anything…
Just trying to help. How would you like your help served?
you telling me about a move you made almost 2 weeks ago isn’t a help..you telling me where fas will be monday afternoon would be a help..great if you made money but like I said it doesn’t establish a history when you post about a purchase you made 2 weeks ago…would go a lot further if you poster like ritchie, woo , or me at the time it happened..by the way I bought fas at 2.47 15k shares and 2.70 5k shares..if you look back on that friday two weeks ago you can see at around 3:40 ish when I stated where I bought it..that establishes a history…
good luck
I purchased the FAS calls, the ICE calls and the SKF call at the close today. Sorry if I did not make that clear.
i will post as I execute.
Thanks – and good luck, too
Nice on the FAS calls, let us know how you get on with those.
One chart pattern that was worked very well is short the market when the earnings season starts. The market goes down for about a month and then turns around.
In early October the market started falling when the Q3 earnings season started. It bottomed on Nov 4th about a month later.
In early January the market started falling when the Q4 earnings season started. It bottomed on Feb 4th
The reason for this is very simple – poor earnings and analysts lowering estimates
We all know the Q1 results will be horribe. In early April you are likely see the market falling.
In the short term, it is better to be patient. It is not a good idea to short tomorrow after a high volume up day.
First, sorry you are angry. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I am a trader. I make money whether the market oes up, or goes down. I have no bias, except to make money. Regarding FAZ, I simply have NEVER gotten a feel for it. It has not performed to my desire to merit my gambling on it. Whatever it does, it has never acted right – for me.
That being said, I am risking 100 X 15 dollars on FAS. If I make 60 cents, well…you do the math. FAS does exactly as it is supposed to do. SKF – either way – does exactly as it is supposed to do. FAZ has not (again, for me) done exactly what it is supposed to do.
I don’t care what Charles said. This is a different time and different scenario. And even if we go down tomorrow, I have bought the SKF hedge – and who knows what OPEX Friday will bring. Regardless, my charts and numbers tell me this could happen – not that it will happen. I feel somewhat comfortable that we will not be going sideways – which is the worst scenario.
Remember, Zees: bulls make money, bears make money – and pigs get squashed. I just don’t want to be a pig.
littlebird, look at a 6 month, Day timeframe chart. Notice both FAS and XLF are UP ABOVE the Bollinger Bands. Normally whenever price gets OUTSIDE of a BB, then it tends to gravitate back into the Bands. i.e. faz will go up as xlf goes down.
As zees sez,,,,charles dow sez we can’t go over 8 days up/down,,since 8 is a major fib number. So now we go down 3, Or 5. Uhhh…I dunno.
we might go up more. Or not.