So I think there is a general consensus of where the EW is headed. I just thought I would post my thoughts and my gameplan based on these various views…
1 year:
So there are 3 options that I can see in the short term based on us currently being on the 4 of 5 (or just having finished)
1) 4 of 5 is done at 775 and we head to new 600 lows
2) we head higher to 795 (seems more unlikely to me)
3) we head to 815 to finish the 4 of 5 after we 3 wave up with the 1 of 3 being finished, and the 2 of 3 having started
of these 3 options I am leaning towards 1 or 3
6 month:
As you can see from the box with pink letters, it gives a better break down of why I feel option 3 is a possibility. Option 1 is still a good possibility, if you look closely at the fibs fomr 775 to 600, it looks very clean, and even has retraces at the 666 area.
10 day:
The 10 day gives the better breakdown of my game plan going into the days to come.
I believe that the 732 area will be where we see the first significant retrace. If you draw fibs from 775 to 732, you can see from the move up as well as the move down from 775 that those fibs played a significant part. This leads me to believe that 732 will be a crucial point to come. It’s also a fib for a couple other numbers that you can see from the chart. The key point to watch is the 707 area. If we bounce there and keep heading north, that means we may see 815, or at least a correction up. If we see a move down after a retrace, then we could see 600′s.
732 i’ll probably sell all my puts. and possibly buy calls for a bounce. 758 i will look to buy puts down to 707. from there i will get out again and wait to see if we head higher or head lower.
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remember yesterday i was saying that we should watch the banks? well the banks did a GREAT job of foretelling the market movement. when BAC hit the pink circle i drew over the weekend, i watched the area carefully and bought puts at the peak of BAC before it dropped. the market fell along with BAC. WFC, JPM, C all were below daily highs and went down lower towards gaps, which leads me to believe we are going to gap down into the open as the banks gap down collectively.
I’ll be watching the banks VERY closely again this whole week, for retraces and trend lines to hit and for the market to respond accordingly. Good luck!
Another option I didn’t include yet is that we just keep heading higher without any retrace. there have been a number of LARGE waves that have gone without any retraces till it was over. An example of this is the 943-805 drop which didn’t retrace till it was over. that’s 140 pts without a proper retrace. This 4 wave could easily turn around and just keep heading north without showing a proper 3 wave pattern.
reason i didn’t include this is that you can’t call the end of a wave that behaves in this manner, and therefore we just have to watch various points carefully to know whether or not to get out of any positions going in the opposite direction.
Nice post woo. Does the FOMC meeting have any bearing on your bias or strategy?
Woo, the only issue I have with #3 is from what I understand, wave 4 can not enter the area of wave 1 down and still be a correct count. Kenny has been using this as his main evidence that primary 1 is over (truncated) because of the Nasdaq. Daneric is using a different wave 1 of 5 low on the nasdaq, so his count is still in primary 1, however he basically said if we go much above today’s high his low is violated.
So if we go to 815, how is that reconciled with the primary 1 vrs primary 2 logic.
I believe we are in 5 of 5, or if we bounce still in 4 of 5 with an abc correction that will lead to a double top (A at 774, B at 732 or where ever it bounces and then C double top at 774). Otherwise, a break of 800-804 would make me believe we are indeed in primary 2.
Nice commentary ckeltner. Lookin’ good in the drivers seat woo.
this is generally the case, but look at the 1000-740s 5 wave. the 4 CLEARLY goes into the 1 wave.
Just thing we want is to be caught offguard. And this wave is the best example that it can happen.
a break of 805 would indeed trigger a lot of stop losses for the bears..in my opinion
Nice Woo.
Like your assessment Woo. Lets hope it plays out.
Hi,
If we get into the option 3 area the play would be buy pullbacks especially on the nasdaq , which if it takes out yesterdays high could be deemed as being in primary wave 2. This is because the notion of it being in intermediate 5 would be dead as minor 4 enters area of minor 1.
I think that since 777 is the 50% retrace of the entire wave 3 of 5, we should see a drop soon. 731 seems to be good target this week, but I do feel that we will have a tug of war between the bears and bulls with declining volume to the upside as the days go on.
Soooooo much pressure in both directions right now. If anyone has not seen Zee’s chart links at the end of the intraday com, check them out – a must see.
Besides that, if we go up from here it is based on financial trickery (m2m) and will be very raddling for the bears. I recommend asking Uner.. for a bear confidence if you can’t handle the heat.
Me, I have no doubt that we are headed down again.
You think wayyyy too hard..one big flaw for most “elliotticians”
Woo: I am trying to follow you wave count (ABCDE) since 950 in October. It seems that your EW interpretation is quite different than many others. That said, you have been spot on for many of your calls. It would be helpful if you could explain your larger wave count in an upcoming post. Are you using a variation of Elliott Wave such a NeoWave?
Cheers!
Blue