Intraday Commentary ~ 3/17/09

By
FocalEquity
– March 17, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:46pm
I am adding 5% more to my shots at the close here, but have about 25% left to add if we go up to the 795$ level on the SPX, which should be the top if it wasn’t already today. Bulls completely controlled today’s action, one thing to note though is that it took them way more time to reach the double top area than it took the shorts to sell yesterday.

3:32pm
Last bearish move for the day. Will the bears take this one?

1:57pm
Bears are staging their attempt, if they fail the market will be able to break the double top, right now they are looking strong though. Expect support at the 76. 72$ level which is 38.2% of the move higher, if the bears have control this should form a right shoulder and then a new move lower. Wait for the shoulder to go short.

1:44pm
Market is hinting at a potential reversal as we move towards 2 pm. Treasury yeilds have topped out $ Tnx. VIX has potentially bottomed too.

1:41pm
BREAK OUT of MS, althought the intraday top should serve resistance. I’m adjusting my triangle accordingly, to have a flat top resistance.

1:30pm
While the market continues to rally due to nice bull flags that continue to form. The individual stocks are showing a little more potential for weakness as we approch an SPY double top. MS and GS are forming triangle formations that could indicate a new move lower. I still dont want to take short positions, I rather let the bears pile in first, and then i’ll add in on a bear flag.

msshort1
1:25pm
Markets seem to want to test the double top area. The bulls however, took longer to bring the market up to the double top area than the sell off we had yesterday. The double top area should be a very strong resistance. MS forming a pennant on the 5 minute ?

1:16pm
Market is breaking out of a bull flag formation to test the highs.  Dow Jones testing the 61.8% retracement, a break can send the indexes to the double top area. XLF is batteling the 50% retracement while all the indexes are either above or at the 61.8% retracement.

12:46pm
So i’m back, and obviously the head and shoulders that I was expecting has not turned out to be that way. With the markets rallying past the 61.8% mark it looks like the bulls are in control  and can bring this market up all the way to 795$ on the SPX. If we pass the double top area, then subwave 5 has not yet started and we are still in subwave 4. However, the bears still get credit for the reversal they made yesterday, and until the double top is broken you have to remain bearish on the daily chart, bullish on the 10 minute. 61.8% on the Dow has not yet been broken as well. 

11:52am
SPY has now formed an inverse head and shoulders on the 1 minute with a target of a bout the 50% retracement, for a double top area. Neckline is at 76.40$.

11:34am
Short – Term Portfolio Stats: UP 112.37%  Year To Date (Jan 1st, 2009). 473 Trades so far, 439 were profitable , 10 broke even, 24 with losses of 3.7% on average (this includes option trades which are much more volatile).  

Long – Term portfolio Stats: Down -29.30% YTD. Holding onto Citigroup (bought @ 7.37 average), Google (bought @ 270.3 average), Apple (bought @ 89.9 average), GE (bought @ 8.10 average), WFC ( bought @ 10.00 average). 

11:14am
SPY market is now testing it’s support against the bear flag line which makes today’s trading day. Take a look. A break = time to short. 
spy-short 

11:01am
Market almost reached 50% and then fell back down, testing the 38.2% retracement.  

 10:45am
Market is able to rally yet again, and this time we might see a break of the 38.2% retracement of yesterdays move lower and a move up to 50%, that will probably constitute the head and shoulders that I was talking about then.  I will look to add a short around the 50% level at 76.70$.  

10:31am
Market is now heading back to the lows, this is not the H&S that I was talking about, this was too short. Expect another bounce around the 38.2% retracement level that should last for around 2 hours.  

10:21am
MS is not participating in the SPY rally.  

10:07am
MS looks weak, I will look to short once it break my blue line of bear flag support. And there is a H&S forming on the 1 minute SPY.

msshort
10:04am
Market has retraced 38.2% of the move lower from yesterday, bears are not piling in that much at this level, we might get a push to the 50% (76.70) where more bears will pile in.  

9:58am
Ms is forming a bear flag which incorporates the whole move higher for today, it will probably get half way done at filling the gap and then start falling. I don’t think financials can rally with such weakness. Despite their being an inverse head and shoulders on the XLF.

9:48am
XLF is now hitting it’s support line, which can mean that it is starting it’s right shoulder. 

9:37am
It looks like the head and shoulders that I was talking about in my video may be already forming. That is, we are forming the right shoulder. Correction, we are still move lower, we will form the shoulder at the 38.2% retracement like I said in the video. 

9:31am
Market is trying to stage a potential rally on some good surprising housing data. 

12:31am
So what are you guys thinking? New subwave 5 or are we still on subwave 4? Futures are currently only slightly down. The market will look to retrace at some point the move lower that we had yesterday. A good place for the market to see a bounce is the 38.2% retracement of the subwave 3 move lower which served as support before on the way up, it’s at 74.78$, or the 38.2% retracement of this subwave 4 way up, at  73.82$.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.