Today we came back from a week break and looked at the charts as we called out both the short term bottom and beginning of subwave 4(5) and the short term top which was probably today, and the beginning of subwave 5(5). We discuss looking at the dow jones as it obeyed technicals much better, and where we’re headed in the days to come. With the potential of a capitulation for the market, we have started shorting late last week, and added more shorts as the rally moved on higher. We currently have XLF march, april PUTS, SPY march april PUTS, are short the indexes, and went short MS for a day trade. We also discuss the VIX’s strength, and its potential to reach 60 in the next 2 weeks.
Video not available, Re-do? ty
Working now. Thanks
Thanks Idan
excellent call thanks for all the input.
after today im 100% bear. with 20% left in cash going to increase my position when we break that last line of resistance you mentioned.
Cheers,
There is a technical problem after the first 2 minutes.
Thank you Idan
Idan: thx…Video not working…it seems consensus here is we are in 5(5) vs. P2?
All I can say is if traders of options look at the open interest of your stock/indicies of choice in OPEX week, the price tends to float to the strike of highest interest. Not perfect, but works for me. If the stock is not near the strike in the current month, stay away…unless you are disciplined with stops. I may more $$$$ near options expiration thanany other time of the month, BUT I take more risk than most,
Yes I was a little concerned during the day about my shorts!
I am pretty new to trading and this site however, I am having difficulties drawing all the conclusions outlined based upon previous posts and videos. If I am following along correctly, I would assume we still have a sub wave 4 of 5 in this 4 of 5? I am trying to understand the concept, yet believe that we needed a decent pullback to accomplish a true 4/5 to get to the real 5 down. At the rate the market is acting, I would assume we are still healthy in this process. A pullback into the 71.80ish area of the SPX at the rate we are accumulating (a couple hours ahead of Q’s) would give us reason to set a true bull trap in the 795 area.. With the time left between now and opex, we have time to accomplish this systematically. The trap would come into play around the lunch hour on Thursday, which would lead us into the capitulation that is much anticipated, therefore, sending us into a Friday decline that would send us into the real OPEC weekend. 2 weeks to see this happens just seems to be a bit much in my opinion. I have had my turning point for all this set for well over a month, and no matter what new lines I draw, they point to Thursday to begin the reaction to our bottom before the real rally helps us out of this mess.
My 2cents,
JFF
Interesting such a different perspective from Alpha Trends?
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/
In the end, it was credit card payment defaults that bullied the financials today. Keep in mind that the powerful people want the banks to look good before April’s stress test results. Hopefully we drop hard because it won’t last long unless the Fed lets go of the rope.
Oh, and I forgot that GS changed their fiscal and don’t report until next month now.
I enjoyed “our” week break.
1937 Chart status
? Sorry to pester just think it would be useful here w/debate over P1 vs. P2
GS next month (talk about seeing Ground Hog Day again), it is if our financial market knows things we do not yet again? (JPM gold rush via UK during Clinton) The market is what it is, and everybody trading will make the right decision for him/herself. Keep in mind while doing so, that capitulation hasn’t led anybody near the flush needed. Every toilet needs a good cleaning now and then, and I feel it is better sooner than never.
I need to know how to get on board this wave, because you are all the best in the business.
Kudos,
JFF