Intraday Commentary ~ 3/16/09

By
FocalEquity
– March 16, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

4:12pm
Great finish, i’ll have a video today by 6 pm.  

3:54pm
Next real strong support we will see is the 74.78$ or 38.2% retracement of the subwave 3 move lower that we had. We should see a 1-2 hour bounce there in order to form the right shoulder of a 3-4 day head and shoulders pattern. This pattern should take us down to around 70$ at least. 

3:42pm
Market finally capitulating down, you see the VIX going up insanely here. 
 

3:34pm
Market can’t seem to grab a hold of any support levels, this looks like a reversal to me, if the indexes all end down we have probably started the new wave. 

2:51pm
Potential inverse head and shoulder forming on the SPY. But the bears are not fully in yet, so it might not work out for the bulls.  

2:34pm
Market hit 61.8% retracement and is giving us a last bounce before breaking down to new the lows.  Bulls are pushing this one as high as they can, if they fail here you know that all the bulls are in the market and will panic. 

2:23pm
Market breaking the 50% retracement on the SPY for the day. Last is the 61.8% at 77.10$. A break of that will definitely set a different tone for tomorrows open.  Potential head and shoulders can form (the right shoulder will form) as we hit the prior resistance which is now support 50% retracement of the move lower that we broke earlier today. This is at 77.15$. 

2:16pm
Financials looking weaker by the minute, MS new lows, H&S on the 5 minute chart. I currently own SPY puts march, SPY puts April, MS puts, XLF puts march and april. All of which make 60% of my protfolio and 40% in cash. I also have a longer term portfolio with C (holding it for the moment) , AAPL, GOOG, WFC, GE (recently added). 

2:07pm
Market breaking the 38.2% and now testing the 50%. Volume strong. 

2:04pm
Market finding some support at 38.2% retracement of today’s move higher. Last time we hit 38.2% we moved much higher, if we break lower this will be the first indication that we have started wave 5. 

1:58pm
Market is reacting as I have predicted, we hit the 50% retracement, and the 2pm reversal is acting on as a great time to go short, if you are not short yet, i suggest you wait for a potential bear flag and then go short. Cover if we pass the highs. 

1:38pm
Dow Jones hitting against the 50% retracement, 2 pm reversal? 

12:47pm
This market is breaking to new highs, but it is losing a lot of steam (volume wise) as it is approaching the 50% retracement on the Dow Jones and 61.8% retracement on the SPY. 

12:27pm
march15spy
Market has to break the blue line for us to form a H&S pattern and eventually demonstrate weakness. 

12:00pm
I took a small April PUTS position on the SPY. Again, this is me just slowly adding onto my shorts, I still have over 65% in cash. 

11:28am
Market broke easily through the 50% retracement, now forming a bull flag, the Dow Jones is getting closer and closer to it’s 50% retracement which could be the final target. Only 0.6% away. 

10:53am
50% retracement got retested twice more, but bulls are having a hard time breaking it just yet. A bearish sign would be breaking under 76.79$. The dow jones has not yet reached its 50% retracement. Nasdaq is extremely weak compared to the other two indexes, which could indicate potential reversal around the corner. 

10:30am
Market heading slightly lower, but this looks more like a retracement and we could see another push higher towards woos 795$. 

10:06am
Head and shoulders now formed on the SPY (5 min). Also notice that the VIX is up despite the market going up, this is definitely forecasting something in the days to come. 

9:34am
Market is slightly up after Barclays vowed to try and keep the whole company public and without a government stake. 77.30 on SPY is 50% retracement, and we will find strong resistance there, which could potentially start a reversal.

12:02am
Hey guys, I just came back from my vacation and i’ll be looking at the charts more closely tomorrow. Last thursday I put in a small short position because I felt like we were potentially going to reverse on a day where we finished at the highs (which is usually a bearish sign). On friday, the market fell but then used the 38.2% retracement as support and  moved to a double top area. I won’t be surprised if we gap lower monday, however it’s not necessarily a reversal. The highest target i give this market rally is at 795$ on the SPX, although I think 771 (50% retracement from the move lower) is more porbable. I still own a small short on XLF and SPY, and will look to add as we go higher. I think the market could see a reversal in the days to come which might coincide with a bad bank proposal which has been proping the markets.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.