Thursday, March 12, 2009
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: FEED, AHR, CALP, CNSL, EJ, EVEP, FSIN, GSOL, GBE, IMAX, LCUT, MDZ, TMR, MEI, MITI, NAFC, NGPC, NPSP, PNY, PRSC, SOL, SHMR, SCR, SFD, STEI, SURW, TICC, VIP.
8:30am Feb Advance retail sales (last 1.0%, ex autos last 0.9%
8:30am Initial Jobless Claims (last 639K), Continuing Claims (last 5.106M)
10:00am Jan Business Inventories (last -1.3%)
10:30am Natural Gas Inventories
1:00pm Treasury’s 30-year bond auction
TYC Annual General Meeting.
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: ARO, CCIX, DWRI, ERJ, ETEL, HRLY, HIBB, HQS, INAP, MED, MNTG, NGAS, PSUN, POWR, ZQK, SALM, SEAC, SHFL, SWHC, STEC, TTGT, SWIM, ZIPR, ZUMZ.
Intraday Commentary ~ 3/12/09
– March 12, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
OK,
IM A BELIEVER..
this now looks like A OF 4….. B of 4 BEGINS TOMORROW?
A OF 2 …. C OF 2 … finished in around the same spot. possible we get this again.
good luck tomorrow! i took some pain from 737 to 750 but i added at the top so hope im ok.
im going to post a nice clear chart in photos.
Richard. Will be interesting to see what Kenny and Dan say tonight. Dan’s sweet spot was around 752 and Kenny had 762? Also, XLF is right about at Kenny retracement target.
Richard. Kenny posted this in his comments today:
it is more likely we are in my black C. timewise depends on how high it is going to go and how it gets there.
I think there are a lot of bears that feel it would be much nicer to drop from a higher step. I don’t think the bears are going to pile in right now as required to end subwave 4. At the 50% is will be assured.
Also, we touched 38.2 with about 20 minutes left and still ended there. I guess I would have expected more profit taking and short selling in the last 20mins if subwave 4 was ending. We are going up before we go down,..IMHO.
The end of the day was like saying, “Bears – 38.2! Deal or No Deal?” Bears say, “No Deal!”
lol
770 here we come
It looks like to me that the VIX is doing similar to Feb op/exp week, with one more day to go before the weekend. Notice Feb 17 area, and also Jan low area, where purple vix line was precursor of a selloff within the next day or two. Perhaps Fri is gap-down day, or sideways then gap-down Monday.
I could be wrong. Also looks like a ‘shooting star’
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=27&id=p34098287672&a=163048089
today might be subwave 3 of wave 4, target is 780
thanks.
The hard trade is the right trade.
meaning?
Yep. Gotta be on the ‘correct side’ of the trade. Or dang sure have Stop set. (which isn’t one of my finer skills….live and learn. )
http://www.livewithoscar.com/images/charts/video%20no%20stop%20trader.png
Speaking of stops….from Beat The Dart.com
March 12, 2009, 4:30 pm … Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 29.38 or 4.07% to close at 750.74, and clearly above a key prior resistance level of 743.33. Accordingly, change index resistance to 812.00
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, March 11, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Switzerland SNB cuts rates 25bps to 3M Libor near 0.25% and sells CHF to ease credit
US January business inventories drop 1.1%; sales drop 1.0% – near expectations
US retail sales drop 0.1% in February – better than expected
US weekly jobless claims rise 9,000 to 654,000 – worse than expected
BOE Barker: BOE needs to print money as UK recession worsens
COMMENTS
Today was one of only four times in history for the Swiss National Bank to intervene alone, that last time being in the mid-1990’s. So for that extraordinary action we receive an extraordinary move in many markets – a veritable reversal of fortune for emerging markets, banking shares, commodities and the USD. For US equities it was a three-peat – three up days in a row – surprising many technicians with the break of S&P500 741 leading to calls of 768. A 4% up day for equities had other drivers – the retail sales drop was modest and in fact it suggests the return of the US consumer – something that may mean trouble on other fronts. The commodity market saw an early rally in oil extend to a dramatic one – with oil up 10% and breaking from recent correlation gold rallying $15 to 925 up nearly 2%. But the surprise result on the day may really be in fixed income where a bid equity market, a weak USD and a higher energy complex along with $11 bn in new supply – all this left the 30Y US 4 bps lower – with an auction notable in its foreign demand. The underlying driver of why today’s SNB action had such a broad effect rests with the G20 Finance Minister’s meeting ahead. The talk for the week has been that the IMF will get promises for more money – targeted to aid the emerging markets. This was followed by the Obama, Yang pledge for more global stimulus and by the push of some emerging markets to intervene or promise to intervene. What remains to the day is sustainability. Headlines persist about the trouble ahead – BOE Barker warns on the economy and the danger of a swift recovery leading to a swifter removal of stimulus. The US jobless claims continue to show the vulnerability of the US consumer and the GS research team – like many others – just cut their view of European GDP to -3.6% in 2009 – worse even than our US outlook. The global great recession remains despite the extraordinary actions. So its going to be difficult for many to get beyond the charts and reversal momentum to actually believe in something different. There are dangers in the SNB action as well as it could lead to another set of devaluations elsewhere. JPY moved back over the 97.80 level on back of the SNB action and despite fiscal year-end flows the risk may be for 100 over 95. The EUR from 1.2730 to 1.2940 today helps the US but risks trouble in Europe. SNB needs both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF weaker. The world also needs to see a rebalancing of the global trade game and the US consumer and credit cycle aren’t the answer but the problem. Sustainability won’t be found on this roulette wheel today but perhaps in the confidence boost of a real, globally planned, coordinated policy plan from the G20.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2733 1.2936 Close: 1.2862
JPY/USD 96.05 98.53 Close: 98.05
JPY/EUR 122.73 126.4 Close: 126.1119
USD/GBP 1.3702 1.3965 Close: 1.391
GBP/EUR 0.9233 0.9319 Close: 0.9247
CHF/USD 1.1545 1.1969 Close: 1.1881
CHF/EUR 1.4765 1.5315 Close: 1.5281
USD/AUD 0.6422 0.6548 Close: 0.6528
CAD/USD 1.2768 1.2947 Close: 1.2787
NZD/USD 0.5086 0.5222 Close: 0.5207
If no one’s said it for awhile – thanks for your EOD posts pmes…n.
Weird red candle at 3.59 on scottrade chrts for financials.
like WFC at 12.09. GS around 94.
I wonder why
Is anyone getting a bullish read on BAC? Here’s the chart I have, and it looks like it just broke out of a H&S pattern today:
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/716/bacta.gif
Hey guys,
If anyone is there, I need some advice. I had a buy order on FAZ this AM at $50. Changed my mind, so I called my broker. As he picked up the phone, the order triggered. Nobody’s fault but mine. I could have sold for a small profit a few minutes later, but didn’t. Didn’t place a stop, so I’m stuck in this losing trade. This is the first trade that went against me so severly, in such a short time. Live and learn. However, can someone make some suggestions on how to best extricate myself with little or no loss? I’m feeling some anxiety over this, as this trade could easily go further against me in the short term. Damn my timing!
Oh Cotton. Many have been there playing the devil’s little child, FAZ. The worse part about it is that most talk themselves into selling and taking a loss before they should! If you are on margin, maybe think about reducing the amount so that you are no longer on margin. However, I bet most would say, you are ok to hold it even though it is not going to spike up that far tomorrow.
It would not take too much to get back up to 50 but my read is that we are going up a couple hundred points before we take the next big drop.
I really don’t see how we can not see FAZ 50 again…just might be painful to wait.
Good luck and always make your own decisions…..I’m buying in the high 30′s and then all in if it gets down to 33ish (wishful thinking).
If you can wait it out without margin calls I’d hold it. I don’t trade this one but looking at the 5, 30,60 dy charts 50 is on the low side. If we retest any lows you’ll be fine. I know you know this – but a primary trade error is panicing and selling too soon. So hold out if you can.
if we know spx will go to 770 , why buying faz in the middle to take the risk, I would wait until 770 to buy faz.
Thanks all. The good news is…..there is no margin involved. I just hate being down this far, this quickly. Especially with more potential pain to come. Would any of you put on a hedge at this poin?
No. Unless you like running with your shoelaces tied.
Great answer, 3min.
Cotton, I’m right there with you and still holding too because I can’t day trade. Hopefully you still have some cash. If you do and the spx runs to 770 before it drops, you’ll be able to buy more FAZ in the 30s. At least that’s my plan.
It’s worked for me before when I’ve jumped a little too early with FAZ.
Thanks Newman! Here I deserve a good chastising and all of you have nothing but encouraging words to offer! I think that is a testament to the quality of people on this board. Great things can be acheived when a group of people aspire to a common goal. Good luck to you on your position! And yes, I have plenty of cash on hand…….so I’ll be looking to average down.
Cottonman just a suggestion but I usually hedge my shorts and longs with about 5-10 % invested in a call/put running in the opposite direction. for example FAZ was at 50 when fas was at 4.43 If I buy 100 shares of faz I also buy 10 March 5 calls on fas. I estimate they would have cost me say 0.50 or $500.00. So if the stock moves in my direction. and lets say it goes up 20% ie $1000.00 I can sell faz or hold it and loose the calls at a loss.
Now lets say if the story went the way it did today. I lost $ 940 on my stock but the hedge made me $700 and so my net is $240…. (plus commision off course) I dont do this for day trades but this strategy has saved me many a swing trades , specially in the current market.
Unersaettlich has been very successful with FAZ. He posted this comment rescently:
http://social.stocktock.com/xn/detail/2348194:Comment:20567
Thanks Factoria! All of these comments are making me feel better. I don’t have the TA or Elliott Wave knowledge that many here do. I don’t have much to offer, but enjoy the camraderie and the opportunity to make some $$$$. Best of luck to you!
I just posted a pretty extensive analysis (CAVEAT EMPTOR) with a lot of “It would be nice if ” stuff in it at
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/predictions-in-financials
in one of the last and longest comments. You may be able to get 75 for FAZ in a day or two if we are at the top of wave (b) of 4 of (5) of [1], on the way from SPX=753ish to 710ish, which will crank FAZ from low 40s to maybe 75. Then we may get a double in FAS from 3.50ish at SPX=710 to 705 (note that somebody above sees resistance at 812, but I believe that is BS, although 795 makes sense for the top of 4 of (5) of [1]. Then you maybe harvest a double from FAS a week or so from now, rolling it over into FAZ at maybe even 25 or unbelievably 23 if the fibs and waves are all okay and no waves get truncated and a few other caveats. Then, when 5 of (5) completes [1] down at SPX = 625ish, well, FAZ hit 115 at SPX=667, so you might harvest a double triple at FAZ=150ish, or more if you switch between FAZ and FAS or cash or whatever to exploit the squiggles. Now this is just all fairly fanciful, but it isn’t that far-fetched if we stay on our toes about hitting those waves and not getting greedy when trading — you’ve just seen FAZ eat ALL AND MORE of a rise from 47 to 115 in a few days, so be careful, and you might make some nice money.
I trade the SKF myself, but all the indicators I watch for a turn (RSI, MACD and STO) are each in extreme positions on the 60m. The RSI is the lowest it has been all year. Anything below 30 has always led to an immediate upturn. The MACD is extremely oversold and about to cross. The MACD cross on the 60m has always led to an extended upswing for the FAZ or SKF. The STO is at the level that every turn occurs. Having all of these aligned together point to a reversal upward for both the SKF and FAZ very soon – maybe tomm but I’m sure by Monday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=60&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06113682614&a=163064918&listNum=6
I saw the same thing at the end of the day and I could not believe that the directional movement was still very negative on FAZ. I say this because it seems that something very big (bullish) is about to happen. It could very well be the increase in mark2market that is creating this financial bullish extension. I heard bernie is now going to be interviewed on Sunday night… Boy that really screws up a Friday close!
I really don’t think something “very bullish” is going to happen as alot of this action has been short covering. It started at 3:30pm last Friday and has lasted throughout today’s action. The reason is think it’s really just alot of short covering is the SPY volume on the daily is lower then almost every selling day of the past month but the XLF volume has been high over the same period. The general market isn’t being bought nearly as the financial’s so it looks like alot of covering to me.
Covering at S&P 750….I don’t think so.
Thanks Shawn! I would enjoy seeing you post more often here. Especially you entry and exit points on SKF. I really appreciate your expertise and your willingness to share it. Cheers to you!
Oh, and lastly, whenever SKF has reached a short turn top or bottom, the after hours action overextends in the directions of the move. It’s as if the late arriver’s are either buying the price over the top and after the close and those that have been slammed by the downturn sell at any cost after the bell and push it lower. That’s what I have noticed in the past and was happening AH tonight. We’ll see what happens tomm.
Thanks again!
Good read Shawn- cool insight into the inner workings. Would some of your logic re SKF and FAZ also extend over to SRS – it being composed of over 80% financials? Or would it?
You would think that SRS would behave in a similar fashion as SKF but i find it much less predictable. I don’t know if it was on Stocktock or another board but someone called it the “Widow Maker” and it fits SRS extremely well. It doesn’t seem to respond to oversold and overbought conditions as one would expect.
True. It does not track the way SKF/FAZ track. Must be the other 20% throwing it off. Anyway – hope to see more posts from you. GL
dude just look at the chart.
forget about it and sell it next time things get funky.
Cotton, I am in at 44.50 and I plan on holding..I have been there and done a couple of times and it works out. I am so pissed at myself for selling FAS at 4.00..what was I thinking?
Yeah, I had 10K shares and sold at $4.20!!!!
MktMike it would be WONDERFUL if we could get an update of the 37 chart as I think it shows we skipped wave 4 all together and we are now in Primary wave 2 up…sad to have this tool introduced and then abandoned…not that I know how to do it…TIA