Wednesday, March 11, 2009
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: AAON, ALTI, AEO, BONT, ESLT, EXLS, GPOR, HLCS, KFY, LNY, LDK, NSM, NCT, VITA, PLUG, TRK, SPLS, SNSS, MTN.
10:30am DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Bank of America Consumer Conference.
Barclays Capital Healthcare Conference.
UBS Technology Conference.
Wedbush Morgan Securities Conference.
A Shareholder Meeting.
COP Analyst Meeting.
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00, last -12.6%).
2:00pm Feb Monthly Budget Statement (last -$175.6B), TSLF auction
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: AFCE, BLTI, BEXP, DAC, DMND, HOTT, ICFI, JAS, MW, MBLX, OPTR, PLL, SINA, STAN, TBSI, WCAA, XOMA.
After the close OSIP added to S&P400, APEI and EHTH added to S&P600.
Intraday Commentary ~ 3/11/09
– March 11, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
SKF having a tough time breaking resistance at 178
Could wave 4 be Trunicated?
Truncations aren’t applied to 4th waves, they are a characteristic of 5th waves. 4th waves have a lot of flexibility, they just can’t enter the price territory of wave 1.
I posted this earlier; appears to be working so far for B.
spx wednesday.png I have 734.4 as an “A’ wave (hey, I might be incorrect). It appears 5 waves up from the 667 lows. If so, pretty much made it to 732 area this morning. Close. Then, perhaps this B wave targets are correct. Will it be 3 waves down? hmmm… Continue
Added by Ed on March 11, 2009 at 11:32am — No Comments
http://stocktock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/spx-b-wave-targets
anyone see us rallying this after noon?
is there a reason for?
financials rallying
Anyone have the OMNI Gold Flash?
2nd FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 02:30:13 PM EST
Traders,
Buy here at market
Last price = 714.00.
Keep your stops below 707.00
I will keep you informed.
TY Swung long FAS and IWM.. +10% on the puts
3rd FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 02:48:23 PM EST
We were filled down to the 714.00 level.
Last price = 720.75
We are in a counter trend trade as we are long in a bear market.
Please be NIMBLE with long positions in this current environment.
Keep your stops in place.
I will keep you informed
Did yall get permission to post his gold level flashes?
Thank You for looking out Ladoo5…
There is a disclaimer on the site that states it is fraudulent and misleading to post these recommendations elsewhere when received as a member of the Livewithoscar.com website. We track all IP addresses and will investigate any posting activity other than our site.
Thanks again!
I ama seeing a 3cm resistance trend line which is not at 717. THis is also where the AMA cross is. I would be inclined to think a rally if we reach…ah maybe 720.
ES sure looks like a H/S and a bear flag on 5 min. Anyone?
possible big head and shoulders forming in the skf…
3rd Flash?
O says we’re long in a bear market. Be nimble. Sage advice.
3rd FLASH UPDATE S&P 500 & EMINI 02:48:23 PM EST: —- We were filled down to the 714.00 level. Last price = 720.75 We are in a counter trend trade as we are long in a bear market. Please be NIMBLE with long positions in this current environment. Keep your stops in place. I will keep you informed
Are these updates from Oscar a component of the Gold membership?
Yes jp.. Come on down to my site.. lol
pre market photo of ES:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/es-mar11-am?context=latest
latest, using additional lower support trendline (tighter channel)
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/es-mar11-250pm?context=latest
706 is now below the channel.
Thanks Richard
Looks like 710-712 at the bottom of the channel now. Everyone seems so jumpy, it makes me nervous. I’m thinking of adding HXU.TO and HFU.TO positions today.
im long BGU @ 715 and 718
can someone confirm the H&S that is forming in SKF…Please
Yeah, looks like it is, neckline 170, top is 179, so a 161 target.
thanks
lets see if it plays out
thanks for confirming the H&S in the SKF Daniel, are you in on this move
on the 1-min, SKF and FAZ are chopping in horizontal channels, with the middle peak being lower (slightly) than the left & right, so it is not a H&S, but could well break downside about now with about the same target, 160ish for SKF, 50 for FAZ, and 745ish for the big (on the 1-min) bull flag in $SPX (flagpole = 732-708 = 24; target = breakout + flagpole = 721 + 24 = 745).
Backtest done? Higher?
4th FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 03:04:55 PM EST
Last price = 722.00
Please move stops to break even else exit here at will if you are uncomfortable with a long position in a bear market.
Exit at least 50% of your long positions here. I will keep you informed.
ih+s on spy, just breaking neckline, target > 730
4th Flash? Thanks for posting those Anja
4th FLASH UPDATE S&P 500 & EMINI 03:04:55 PM EST: —- Last price = 722.00 Please move stops to break even else exit here at will if you are uncomfortable with a long position in a bear market. Exit at least 50% of your long positions here. I will keep you informed.
FAS kicking butt!!!
“Stock Market Rally Fizzles”
CNBC, by way of for instance…
Say you are a carpenter’s apprentice, yet after ten years you still can’t layout a wall, hang a door, or mount a kitchen cabinet. What would you say about such an understudy?
Yet after 10 years neither Maria Bartiromo, nor apparently any of her coworkers, understands nor knows how to explain the context of an ABC correction?
The clownishness and ineptness of this network borders on surreal. It is quite literally “Kafkaesque” in its absurdity. If one was watching the same production on a daily basis (muted of course) you wouldn’t think it was possible.
Unreal.
when i watch CNN its like they are speaking at a kindergarten class. im no longer able to watch CNBC or CNN because it makes me feel like throwing up.
I only watch Erin Burnett and Trish Regan.
Amen… Trish in particular… and Margaret Brennan
I disagree, Erin is my favorite. She not only has the looks but is also very intelligent, she constantly questions things and acts as a journalist not a moron (See Maria Bartoromo)
Sure she cheerleads sometimes, but at least she looks cute doing it!
SHORT LAZ @ NOW
LAZ PUTS FILLED… nice little pop for a stock that is 400x PE
- $25.63
Agreed . . . no shares available to short (scottrade)
I’d like to see more volume but that was the bullish breach I was looking for. gone long for a scalp.
IWM lagging. SOLD Took the 5% $$$. Sold FAS calls up 50% $$$$. Holding a runner. Whew. Too many trades. Likely done. Holding GDX still. Probably will into next week.
Sold FAS calls or writing FAS calls? FAS is up!
dumping the DOW $7.50 calls looks like the right thing now. it can not catch a bid.
see if we get that big eod green candle just like yesterday
FCX back in the high $35s
what are you doing with it?
sold short $35.91
Oscar is done for the day. Nice recovery after yesterday.
XLF looks like its about to make a big drop…neg div on 1 min intra day.
what is your indicator on that
the skf looks like it still has room to fall, why do you say that the xlf is about to reverse?
I would say the reverse…there’s neg. div on the SKF and FAZ, which would indicate a reversal. How much? Who knows…I’d start with the daily VWAP though.
MACD….if the ROC breaks down right here…we could see a big drop IMO
are you moving on that? what strike?
bought FAZ at 53ish with a tight stop
– are we exiting our long positions in this spot awaiting a corrective move lower?
I just did. made a few bucks on TNA.
Looks bullshitish to me . . . like one more push into tommorrow AM. Can’t believe that
they would try to take it to 745 in one move . . . but that’s what its feeling like. 100% cash
now. No pullback for me
I think we might be in the C leg of this move up now from 713.
667 to 732 – A
732 to 714 – B
714 to ??? – C
anyone got a target?
Mine:
667 to 732 – A
732 to 707 – B
707 to 772 – C (= A)
Still long. The daily indicators look too good unless they whipsaw. 60m overbought and could fall hard which could cause the whipsaw. I’m gonna gamble to the long side and gamble against the whipsaw on the dailys.
cashed out my BGU.. could chance im wrong about getting any pull back tomorrow. see what happens.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/mar-projections-1?context=latest
right at trendline resistance— will post updated chart tomorrow. have to expect a tiny pull back in the morning where im going to make re-entry in BGU
bit of a gamble i guess.
Cashed out the FAS I meant to cash out earlier this week. Nice 75%.
Better than a kick in the head.
Nice
Holding TNA into close although I don’t know why. I think we drop to 707 in the AM then push up.
Also this is now looking like wave c is going to top in the 770-775 range. Basis: A = C ~= 60 pts. Assuming B bottoms 707-712 area. Real rough calc.
double bottom on FAZ, SRS?
careful of FAZ – looking at 30min chart with 20, 50 sma
5 wave down from the 6th
1-down- high on 6th to the 9th – support from 50ma
2-up- on the 9th – resistance from 20ma
3 – DOOOOOOWWWWWNNNNN 50% – support – not sure, sellers got drunk on all the Crystal they can now buy
4 – up – today – resistance….looks like a congestion zone from feb 27
5. down …. ending ?? maybe at spx 740′s
break 740 S&P tomorrow.Any opinions?
Thu or Fri.
What do you guys think of holding financials into the M2M hearing?
It looks like a 5ave pattern has developed since the low last Friday.
Wave 1 up: 667-695
Wave 2 down: 695-673
Wave 3 up: 673 732
wave 4 down: 732-714
wave 5 up: Add length of Wave 1 (28) to bottom of Wave 4 (714) = 742
This will either complete Wave 4 (5) or it’s just the “A” part of a larger “ABC” move. Either way once the 742 area is reached I expect a decent pullback to occur beginning as early as tomorrow.
good job
skf, breaking double bottom as i write
That H&S worked huh?
surre did, just got out of the trade
where do you see it moving here,
holding overnight?
im trying to stay protected but love playing this etf
I’m short actually, lol.
Although I got stopped out of my FAZ play at no loss, I still favor a more significant retracement in the XLF. And I would think this is a double top on the XLF…serious neg div across the board on all indicators.
I’d like to see the XLF come back and test the 5 day SMA at 6.8ish at least.
btw…that would translate to about 69 on FAZ
all negative indicators, sounds interesting…can you post the cahrt plus indicators?
negative divergence….look at your MACD…do you see prices going higher while the MACD goes up less each time?
Well done Tanya and Richard! I am seeing – hate to say it – possible H&S on the SPX. If we pull back the RS will be completed. I doubt it will happen. It is labled on my 1m chart and you can really see it on my 5m chart. ON THE OTHER HAND we may be in a sym triangle that counts out to a break up. Thus I am not in the market except for some QLD and TNA that I am up slightly in. As long as we sty above 712 I’ll stay long.
cashed out BGU at $17.75 and when it hit $18 … doubted the move. im still not sure but im like a 721 close for a move lower … you know what i always say
BULLSHITISH CLOSE
FCX.. entered $35.91 … close $35.57… looking for a sub $35 open
didn’t sleep well last night. black around my eyes. im going to sleep better tonight.. trades went well.
will post updated photos later tonight … rest time.
Any thoughts about AMZN?
Sold last lot of FAS calls. In at .50 Out at .75
Have a good night all.
anyone swinging anything….?
boy the Gold miners just started to crater. Glad I got out.
interesting as Gold regained $900
The stocks lead the metal. Try charting GDX:GLD; it looks a lot worse than either by itself, and GDX chart looks worse than GLD. I bought a position in HGD.TO (double short Can. gold stock index). This action looks a lot like that around the 1033 top and the top after that. H&S top, setting up for bear cross of 20dMA down thru 50dMA, indicators stinking.
What a horrible day for the bulls,can’t get back 2 back rallys…good lord things are going to get bad
come on, it is already something after the step rally from yesterday, that we close more or less flat!
man past rallies need a rest day…. could rocket higher tomorrow although ive bet against it.
anyone else see a H&S forming on esh9 10min? neckline at about 704…
Bob P says its positive the sideways move…yah only in a bull market.
may see them run it up tomorrow a bit … next week is options expiry and they like to short ‘em the week before…. the higher the better.
OH MY… IT’S ALIVE
i have 30% position left in this one. do people really believe the economy is in recovery?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gff
We aren’t even close to the end of this giant mess…
Breaking news: Mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac says it needs $30.8 billion from U.S. as it reports a $23.9 billion quarterly loss. More soon.
Come on Maurice we are down 60 % from Oct 7 and can’t rally more than 1 day??
Richard, per #32, closed at 721. Quick move up in AM, then down?
I’m buying into the charts showing a dip to 702 and a wave up to 780. At that point I WILL be all in short. Guessing before OPEX. Futures flat tonight. Who knows by tomorrow 9:30
Oooohhhhh PLEEEZE let $SPX go to 780 for 4 of (5) of [1] . . . just imagine what we will be buying FAZ for , , , could be in the 30s . . . then a pop to 120 – 140 to finish out primary Wave [1] at which point we might be able to switch to a penny-priced FAS for (a) of [2] . . . if this keeps up, Bill Gates will be my personal Windows debugger . . . I will keep the electrodes clamped to his wazoo until he makes Windows work right.
financials rallying.
Forex trading robot reviewed
“Stock Market Rally Fizzles”
Forex trading robot reviewed
man past rallies need a rest day.
Forex trading robot reviewed