4:07pm
ES 4hr – Bullish day but bearish setup
3:53pm
SPY 1m – Market set to close near session highs, holding above the VWAP throughout the day
2:10pm
ES 10m – 20MA holding, If it breaks, watch for a move down to the 50MA
12:55pm
ES 2hr – Just below important resistance levels
11:38am
ES 2hr – Still in downtrend
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
8:00am Earnings Before the Open: CAS, BF.B, CWEI, DKS, GSI, GIGM, HWK, JASO, KR, LMIA, PCAP, SSI, BKE, TRS.
9:00am Fed Chairman Bernanke discusses bank regulation in Washingon, DC.
10:00am Jan Wholesale Inventories (last -1.4%), TAF results
Earnings During Trading Hours: SAM, THO.
Sanford Bernstein Small Cap Biotech Conference.
Deutsche Bank Hospitalities & Gaming Conference.
JP Morgan Aviation & Transportation Conference.
Standard & Poors Utility Conference.
AMAT Shareholder Meeting.
ADI Shareholder Meeting.
ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales (7:45, last -0.6%).
Redbook Retail Sales (8:55, last -1.6%).
ABC Consumer Confidence (last -49).
3:00pm TSLF announcement
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: AIRM, APEI, ARNA, CAP, CPE, STV, PSS, COMV, FCEL, HOV, HYC, JCG, LHCG, NCS, SLXP, TTWO, TXCO, WES.
4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Q’s/AAPL backtest of 20ma done. Lower..for now
Used up all my RSI rollover minutes on that one.
i won’t be able to post many updates today. pretty swamped at work. but i’ll chime in occasionally and post updated charts EOD.
Great.
The Pivot Point Indicator support line is 70.77 0n the SPY 1min.
i’ll be adding longs at sub 700s.
with you there as well… cashed out my FAS for 40% gain, waiting for mkt to come back down
Me too. Sold my longs from Friday. Just hanging on to a few April AAPL puts at this point until I find a better place to buy.
what is going on in this financials,,,, could be the mark of a turn
Big time Volatility spike, increasing volume
Don’t think we’ll make 690. Calling 700.001
Interesting and thanks..need to re chart tonite.
HERE IS ANOTHER opex target ;
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?laz
$25 looks to be the target on this ones back — a close on the 20th of just above $25 will
deliver little pain to writers.
if it gets above $25 and just holds that spot im buying puts out to MAY on it.
notice how most turn dates occur about 10 days out from opex expiry. this happened last month and many here denied there is a connection.. there is a huge connection.. the current action almost mirrors exactly last month. now we stick save levels … slight push higher.. hold a level.. and then the pressure mounts next week.
THX
I really like your reads Rich.
USB… . VERY CALL HEAVY
to put pain to the few puts in this one .. USB
min $10
max $12.50
already achieved $10… if they can get to $12.50… its as good as max pain.
added to my list .. buy forward puts if $12.50 achieved.
I HATE TNA
sorry for yelling everyone.
So, im thinkin this rally has a couple days left in it, just so die infront of OPEX…any thoughts?
SKF Just Brpke bottom support
Heading for 168-172 support (most likely for tommorrow). I’ll play teh bounce
Breaking through?
http://www.prophet.net/quotes/emini_quotes.jsp?jumpToCharts=&showChartsCheck=on&showCharts=true&chartStartIndex=0&calculateStartIndex=&duration=1d&frequency=i10&chartsPerPage=12#
Lousy chart. WIll do better next time.
its a bird , its a plan, its skf falling off a cliff
We need to see the “B” wave pullback before the “C” Wave up can occur. With a bearish Gartley pattern still in play I expect the “B” Wave pullback to occur on Wednesday possibly back to the 692-686 range followed by the “C” Wave up from Thursday into Friday as Wave 4 (5) completes in the 741-746 range.
why do you pick 741? what is the significance and point of the market making this number.. please let me know.
now that the day is over and the final numbers are in ive posted a photo with calculations and it seem that 742 is the target for this ABC move. good on ya!
the upper and lower BB are getting very close together. Could be a nasty move coming.
We’re either consolidating for a big drop lower, or bull flagging for a rise higher…
we’re pretty oversold…but we shall see…
its got to be higher, look at the move the financials just made
hmm…part of me thinks there may be a selloff at EOD. people are too worried in this market. overall sentiment is bad. i think the bull flag formation might break down and we could see a 15 point drop into closing. this move would keep the overall day still very positive, which is what people want to see.
i say lower…
—- 696 —-
I think shorts are thinking the same thing, and they will provide the support or fuel for additional highs into the close
There gonna try for 7K
if you have your eye on a stock to short… it may already have achieve as good as max pain status or above. APOL and FCX fit the bill.
most stocks im watching aren’t quite there so we have room for a bit more rally
richard, forgive the novice question but how do you use that indicator correctly?
just look at the charts on this site:
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
720?
im still saying.. back to 696… up to 736 at most… then play stick save for a bit
Richard,
We will retest 696 but not today I guess.
There is no amount of money in the world that you could give me to watch Kudlow tonight… He’ll be proclaiming that the American spirit has lifted the stock markets off its low forever as we roar towards 10,000 on the Dow by Friday.
again: if i had 5 bullets. 3 go to kudlow. no question at all.
smarter than he talks!
I don’t doubt it, but his constant cheerleading and rhetoric is beyond annoying.
he will be all over the place sowing his mustard seeds
Was just trolling some other boards (such as SKF etc) and it is like market bulls gone wild out there. You would think we are never going to see another down day again.
ha
let them have their day…they’ve been wrong 99.9% of the time.
The Bottom is in! The BOTTOM is IN!!! NOT
you should start a DVD series by mail order “BULLS GONE WILD”.. another guy got rich with a similar idea.. your turn is next!
GEEEEEEEEEE … I WONDER IF 710+ is the target for 3/20
For jj – post #8… TNA
patience – looks like it’s squeezing in a little triangle. gonna explode
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=p21869242858&a=161865884
Thank you Josh.
Meredith Whitney is on CNBC. Still bearish on banks
I heard her say she would BUY GS for a trade in the 70′s and sell at 100. Also heard her say the numbers may look good for the banks in Q1. Did we listen to the same interview?
looking more and more like consolidation before a drop…good luck long or short =)
patiently waiting to buy some BGU
took my hedge off right about here earlier today. what a chart
oooooooooooo…. i took it on the chin today… but im fighting back picking some toppers.
looks like we might see 723 before we see any lower moves…what an interesting day. great day for the bulls.
bulls need to get in everything they can before the drop later.
had to buy some BGU at $17.17… ouch!
the other option, is an even bigger flag or even more consolidation…this whole area is just nasty with just as much upside as down side…risky business…
they will not let this pull back… …. have to protect self — will double up at 696
if we see it
boy, i can already tell that this is going to be a lot of fun going into opex…
Wonder how Uner is doing, I know he was 100% in Faz and doesn’t like to move in and out often due to the 3 day thing…likely a very painful day if he didn’t get out somewhere along the way.
as long as he’s willing to keep holding faz till after all this up movement, he’s fine. if he’s held it this long, he’s got no problem holding it even longer.
uh oh…watch out….
What if we close at 720 and gap up to 740 in am to match the gap at 740? Any thoughts?
Doubtful scenario, possible, but doubtful, unless they ban short selling again.
TNA High OF day. Leading indicator says we soar into close.
And SRS lagged but is now putting in new lows.
Val did you get out of that one with a profit today. I hope you did, it hit 78 after your trade for a very nice scalp. Congrats!
Sure did. Not holding overnight.
TNA does not have much more upside for this push . . . distribution being shown.
Hammer time. Where’s that link?
TK says we won’t be coming down until tomorrow. http://www.tradingwithtk.com/
he always gets it right
Woo – Will the ABC that has formed end the pattern or do you speciulate that a true Zig-zag in in order to get us up to the 740 range?
5-3-5.
i don’t think we’ve seen the 3 yet or the end of the first 5. but i’ll get better counts later tonight in prep for tomorrow….
– Volume is better than it has been.
What is everyone thoughts on a huge gap down tomorrow? Seems like all the big moves have happened over night? I would be surprised to see a gap down to low 700s with another rally tomorrow.
I see a bullshitish up movement for the close and a gap down tomorrow. I’m with TK on this one. Holding BGZ over night.
Remenber, these last 20 min are playground for big boys only…interesting to see how they play…
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/nyse-to-start-rejecting
I know, I have my comment added to that blog. I will be curious to see how this change will effect our trading.
Sorry, missed that…;)
I see it like this. Since the big boys are totaly in charge of the closing now, we can clearly see how they are betting. And today’s close tell me that the big money does not worry about locking in their profits yet. That means we have a lot more room to run higher before we’ll get a retrace. Safer to bet with the big money, not against them
im sure if anyone has a portfolio like mine its hopping all over the place.. wowser
think things will calm down and flatten out after today. this is a bit overdone.
The SPY 1min looks like a bear flag. Do you agree?
my SMN, FAZ, SRS, SKF puts were overdone
My gosh, best day ever. Sorry to brag.
nice i’m gonna be a buyer of some of those puts when 5,(5) ends.
i tried to short SRS..would not let me yesterday. shoulda just bought puts. doh!
Congrats!
WOW!! Looking at them did you ever do well!! More and more I’m convinced i have to learn to trade options instead of putting up all my capital to do a trade. Hopefully I can get some help and guidance here. You guys are good at it.
Puppet Show sponsored by PPT: Banks and Hedge Funds are attempting to prevent themselves from disappearing….
what is funny is that the CNBC clowns have to act suprised and amazed at this rally when they all know what it is all about i’d hope.
Does anyone see the falling wedge (bullish) on FAZ?
did everyone at least break even on thier FAS scale ins?
5 cents ago!
i bought monday at 2.35, sooo great 2 days!
Out with 30%. Did not get a good entry point
but oh well
i always take profits much too early, sold all my FAS at 3,37. made 15%
bought at 2.45, sold at 3.61… cha-ching
Rich – you staying short FCX overnight?
yes… covered APOL for $1.50 gain.
FL has me most concerned. day traded one lot and kept the other lot and now its looking very bullish on volume.
sheeeeeeeeesh.. giving a bit of my profits back. put on a hedge at 715 BGU
im thinking we clear 730 and then play goalie with it. not much more pain if you are short this thing.
i’ve posted a photo MAR PROJECTIONS that has clear calculations on my opinion after what happened today. needed this day to make sense of things.
Do you think this rally will continue afterhours into tomorrow? Is it a good time to buy FAZ yet?
False on FAZ. don’t beat the market to the punch yet, it has a cpl of days to run
Thanks to whomever was doing the intraday comments in Idan’s absence.
That was Scotty…. he did really good for his firs time
I second that thanks.
No, it was me giving it a go again.
I called in sick from work and decided to make some posts in Idan’s absence.
Thank you Craig!
Just bought FAZ at 61.50
Good luck with that. It’s a brave move but could pay off
they might try to close the gap at 54.50 before the monster 5 of 5 rise.
Am in the same boat.
Added out of the money AAPL puts, VIX calls. 95% cash. Holding over. Good job bulls. Tomorrow is another day.
SRS is starting to look mighty attractive again
oh those days when i bought SRS at $48.01… sweetest trading memory .. only i couldn’t wait to cash it
Went heavy on Gold miners late in the day: ABX, BVN and AUY.
Should be a good two-day play.
http://www.designofsignage.com/application/symbol/hands/image/600×600/hand-cross.jpg
Got paid today!!
Gains locked… two to three day holds from buying in the 680-668 range
FAZ Mar 90 Puts +96%
SRS Mar 98 Puts +73%
SRS Mar 90 Puts +90%
SKF Mar 160 Puts +17%
Started to nibble on SRS calls in the last few minutes.
way to go!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO….
if you can decipher this mess … you da man!
Amen!!!!!!
i’ll work on it tonight. plenty of more money to be made.
Is it possible we go all the way to the 740′s without a retrace?
Funny clip for all: (warning: If you follow Cramer you might be offended)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/10/jon-stewart-rips-into-jim_n_173454.html
look up Don Harrold on youtube. that is where the footage was “stolen” from
today C wave is 1.618 of wave A, should be a down day tomorrow to around 690-700 to form H&S pattern
Yes a retrace to 690-700 would be ideal leading to the final “C” Wave up from Thursday into Friday.
Ok out of jail like a lot of other stocktockers with FAS; placed a stop @ 3.30, and will keep moving it up tightly. Lets see what happens over the next 2 days. For the violent wave 5 down, I favour SRS as my drug of choice, as I feel there is more chance of bancrupcies in the real estate arena. Not FAZ, as I feel the banks are TBTF.